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Alan S. Willsky

Publications and source records attributed to Alan S. Willsky.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2014

A convex solution to Psiaki's first joint attitude and spin-rate estimation problem

We consider the problem of jointly estimating the attitude and spin-rate of a spinning spacecraft. Psiaki (J. Astronautical Sci., 57(1-2):73--92, 2009) has formulated a family of optimization problems that generalize the classical least-squares attitude estimation problem, known as Wahba's problem, to the case of a spinning spacecraft. If the rotation axis is fixed and known, but the spin-rate is unknown (such as for nutation-damped spin-stabilized spacecraft) we show that Psiaki's problem can be reformulated exactly as a type of tractable convex optimization problem called a semidefinite optimization problem. This reformulation allows us to globally solve the problem using standard numerical routines for semidefinite optimization. It also provides a natural semidefinite relaxation-based approach to more complicated variations on the problem.

math.OC↗
arXiv2014

Semidefinite descriptions of the convex hull of rotation matrices

We study the convex hull of $SO(n)$, thought of as the set of $n\times n$ orthogonal matrices with unit determinant, from the point of view of semidefinite programming. We show that the convex hull of $SO(n)$ is doubly spectrahedral, i.e. both it and its polar have a description as the intersection of a cone of positive semidefinite matrices with an affine subspace. Our spectrahedral representations are explicit, and are of minimum size, in the sense that there are no smaller spectrahedral representations of these convex bodies.

math.OC↗
arXiv2013

Learning Gaussian Graphical Models with Observed or Latent FVSs

Gaussian Graphical Models (GGMs) or Gauss Markov random fields are widely used in many applications, and the trade-off between the modeling capacity and the efficiency of learning and inference has been an important research problem. In this paper, we study the family of GGMs with small feedback vertex sets (FVSs), where an FVS is a set of nodes whose removal breaks all the cycles. Exact inference such as computing the marginal distributions and the partition function has complexity $O(k^{2}n)$ using message-passing algorithms, where k is the size of the FVS, and n is the total number of nodes. We propose efficient structure learning algorithms for two cases: 1) All nodes are observed, which is useful in modeling social or flight networks where the FVS nodes often correspond to a small number of high-degree nodes, or hubs, while the rest of the networks is modeled by a tree. Regardless of the maximum degree, without knowing the full graph structure, we can exactly compute the maximum likelihood estimate in $O(kn^2+n^2\log n)$ if the FVS is known or in polynomial time if the FVS is unknown but has bounded size. 2) The FVS nodes are latent variables, where structure learning is equivalent to decomposing a inverse covariance matrix (exactly or approximately) into the sum of a tree-structured matrix and a low-rank matrix. By incorporating efficient inference into the learning steps, we can obtain a learning algorithm using alternating low-rank correction with complexity $O(kn^{2}+n^{2}\log n)$ per iteration. We also perform experiments using both synthetic data as well as real data of flight delays to demonstrate the modeling capacity with FVSs of various sizes.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2012

Latent variable graphical model selection via convex optimization

Suppose we observe samples of a subset of a collection of random variables. No additional information is provided about the number of latent variables, nor of the relationship between the latent and observed variables. Is it possible to discover the number of latent components, and to learn a statistical model over the entire collection of variables? We address this question in the setting in which the latent and observed variables are jointly Gaussian, with the conditional statistics of the observed variables conditioned on the latent variables being specified by a graphical model. As a first step we give natural conditions under which such latent-variable Gaussian graphical models are identifiable given marginal statistics of only the observed variables. Essentially these conditions require that the conditional graphical model among the observed variables is sparse, while the effect of the latent variables is "spread out" over most of the observed variables. Next we propose a tractable convex program based on regularized maximum-likelihood for model selection in this latent-variable setting; the regularizer uses both the $\ell_1$ norm and the nuclear norm. Our modeling framework can be viewed as a combination of dimensionality reduction (to identify latent variables) and graphical modeling (to capture remaining statistical structure not attributable to the latent variables), and it consistently estimates both the number of latent components and the conditional graphical model structure among the observed variables. These results are applicable in the high-dimensional setting in which the number of latent/observed variables grows with the number of samples of the observed variables. The geometric properties of the algebraic varieties of sparse matrices and of low-rank matrices play an important role in our analysis.

math.ST↗
arXiv2012

Bayesian Nonparametric Hidden Semi-Markov Models

There is much interest in the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) as a natural Bayesian nonparametric extension of the ubiquitous Hidden Markov Model for learning from sequential and time-series data. However, in many settings the HDP-HMM's strict Markovian constraints are undesirable, particularly if we wish to learn or encode non-geometric state durations. We can extend the HDP-HMM to capture such structure by drawing upon explicit-duration semi-Markovianity, which has been developed mainly in the parametric frequentist setting, to allow construction of highly interpretable models that admit natural prior information on state durations. In this paper we introduce the explicit-duration Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden semi-Markov Model (HDP-HSMM) and develop sampling algorithms for efficient posterior inference. The methods we introduce also provide new methods for sampling inference in the finite Bayesian HSMM. Our modular Gibbs sampling methods can be embedded in samplers for larger hierarchical Bayesian models, adding semi-Markov chain modeling as another tool in the Bayesian inference toolbox. We demonstrate the utility of the HDP-HSMM and our inference methods on both synthetic and real experiments.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2012

Dirichlet Posterior Sampling with Truncated Multinomial Likelihoods

We consider the problem of drawing samples from posterior distributions formed under a Dirichlet prior and a truncated multinomial likelihood, by which we mean a Multinomial likelihood function where we condition on one or more counts being zero a priori. Sampling this posterior distribution is of interest in inference algorithms for hierarchical Bayesian models based on the Dirichlet distribution or the Dirichlet process, particularly Gibbs sampling algorithms for the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Semi-Markov Model. We provide a data augmentation sampling algorithm that is easy to implement, fast both to mix and to execute, and easily scalable to many dimensions. We demonstrate the algorithm's advantages over a generic Metropolis-Hastings sampling algorithm in several numerical experiments.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2012

High-dimensional structure estimation in Ising models: Local separation criterion

We consider the problem of high-dimensional Ising (graphical) model selection. We propose a simple algorithm for structure estimation based on the thresholding of the empirical conditional variation distances. We introduce a novel criterion for tractable graph families, where this method is efficient, based on the presence of sparse local separators between node pairs in the underlying graph. For such graphs, the proposed algorithm has a sample complexity of $n=Ω(J_{\min}^{-2}\log p)$, where $p$ is the number of variables, and $J_{\min}$ is the minimum (absolute) edge potential in the model. We also establish nonasymptotic necessary and sufficient conditions for structure estimation.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2012

Diagonal and Low-Rank Matrix Decompositions, Correlation Matrices, and Ellipsoid Fitting

In this paper we establish links between, and new results for, three problems that are not usually considered together. The first is a matrix decomposition problem that arises in areas such as statistical modeling and signal processing: given a matrix $X$ formed as the sum of an unknown diagonal matrix and an unknown low rank positive semidefinite matrix, decompose $X$ into these constituents. The second problem we consider is to determine the facial structure of the set of correlation matrices, a convex set also known as the elliptope. This convex body, and particularly its facial structure, plays a role in applications from combinatorial optimization to mathematical finance. The third problem is a basic geometric question: given points $v_1,v_2,...,v_n\in \R^k$ (where $n > k$) determine whether there is a centered ellipsoid passing \emph{exactly} through all of the points. We show that in a precise sense these three problems are equivalent. Furthermore we establish a simple sufficient condition on a subspace $U$ that ensures any positive semidefinite matrix $L$ with column space $U$ can be recovered from $D+L$ for any diagonal matrix $D$ using a convex optimization-based heuristic known as minimum trace factor analysis. This result leads to a new understanding of the structure of rank-deficient correlation matrices and a simple condition on a set of points that ensures there is a centered ellipsoid passing through them.

math.OC↗
arXiv2012

The Convex Geometry of Linear Inverse Problems

In applications throughout science and engineering one is often faced with the challenge of solving an ill-posed inverse problem, where the number of available measurements is smaller than the dimension of the model to be estimated. However in many practical situations of interest, models are constrained structurally so that they only have a few degrees of freedom relative to their ambient dimension. This paper provides a general framework to convert notions of simplicity into convex penalty functions, resulting in convex optimization solutions to linear, underdetermined inverse problems. The class of simple models considered are those formed as the sum of a few atoms from some (possibly infinite) elementary atomic set; examples include well-studied cases such as sparse vectors and low-rank matrices, as well as several others including sums of a few permutations matrices, low-rank tensors, orthogonal matrices, and atomic measures. The convex programming formulation is based on minimizing the norm induced by the convex hull of the atomic set; this norm is referred to as the atomic norm. The facial structure of the atomic norm ball carries a number of favorable properties that are useful for recovering simple models, and an analysis of the underlying convex geometry provides sharp estimates of the number of generic measurements required for exact and robust recovery of models from partial information. These estimates are based on computing the Gaussian widths of tangent cones to the atomic norm ball. When the atomic set has algebraic structure the resulting optimization problems can be solved or approximated via semidefinite programming. The quality of these approximations affects the number of measurements required for recovery. Thus this work extends the catalog of simple models that can be recovered from limited linear information via tractable convex programming.

math.OC↗
arXiv2011

Joint Modeling of Multiple Related Time Series via the Beta Process

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach to the problem of jointly modeling multiple related time series. Our approach is based on the discovery of a set of latent, shared dynamical behaviors. Using a beta process prior, the size of the set and the sharing pattern are both inferred from data. We develop efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo methods based on the Indian buffet process representation of the predictive distribution of the beta process, without relying on a truncated model. In particular, our approach uses the sum-product algorithm to efficiently compute Metropolis-Hastings acceptance probabilities, and explores new dynamical behaviors via birth and death proposals. We examine the benefits of our proposed feature-based model on several synthetic datasets, and also demonstrate promising results on unsupervised segmentation of visual motion capture data.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2011

A sticky HDP-HMM with application to speaker diarization

We consider the problem of speaker diarization, the problem of segmenting an audio recording of a meeting into temporal segments corresponding to individual speakers. The problem is rendered particularly difficult by the fact that we are not allowed to assume knowledge of the number of people participating in the meeting. To address this problem, we take a Bayesian nonparametric approach to speaker diarization that builds on the hierarchical Dirichlet process hidden Markov model (HDP-HMM) of Teh et al. [J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 101 (2006) 1566--1581]. Although the basic HDP-HMM tends to over-segment the audio data---creating redundant states and rapidly switching among them---we describe an augmented HDP-HMM that provides effective control over the switching rate. We also show that this augmentation makes it possible to treat emission distributions nonparametrically. To scale the resulting architecture to realistic diarization problems, we develop a sampling algorithm that employs a truncated approximation of the Dirichlet process to jointly resample the full state sequence, greatly improving mixing rates. Working with a benchmark NIST data set, we show that our Bayesian nonparametric architecture yields state-of-the-art speaker diarization results.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2011

Feedback Message Passing for Inference in Gaussian Graphical Models

While loopy belief propagation (LBP) performs reasonably well for inference in some Gaussian graphical models with cycles, its performance is unsatisfactory for many others. In particular for some models LBP does not converge, and in general when it does converge, the computed variances are incorrect (except for cycle-free graphs for which belief propagation (BP) is non-iterative and exact). In this paper we propose {\em feedback message passing} (FMP), a message-passing algorithm that makes use of a special set of vertices (called a {\em feedback vertex set} or {\em FVS}) whose removal results in a cycle-free graph. In FMP, standard BP is employed several times on the cycle-free subgraph excluding the FVS while a special message-passing scheme is used for the nodes in the FVS. The computational complexity of exact inference is $O(k^2n)$, where $k$ is the number of feedback nodes, and $n$ is the total number of nodes. When the size of the FVS is very large, FMP is intractable. Hence we propose {\em approximate FMP}, where a pseudo-FVS is used instead of an FVS, and where inference in the non-cycle-free graph obtained by removing the pseudo-FVS is carried out approximately using LBP. We show that, when approximate FMP converges, it yields exact means and variances on the pseudo-FVS and exact means throughout the remainder of the graph. We also provide theoretical results on the convergence and accuracy of approximate FMP. In particular, we prove error bounds on variance computation. Based on these theoretical results, we design efficient algorithms to select a pseudo-FVS of bounded size. The choice of the pseudo-FVS allows us to explicitly trade off between efficiency and accuracy. Experimental results show that using a pseudo-FVS of size no larger than $\log(n)$, this procedure converges much more often, more quickly, and provides more accurate results than LBP on the entire graph.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2011

Learning High-Dimensional Markov Forest Distributions: Analysis of Error Rates

The problem of learning forest-structured discrete graphical models from i.i.d. samples is considered. An algorithm based on pruning of the Chow-Liu tree through adaptive thresholding is proposed. It is shown that this algorithm is both structurally consistent and risk consistent and the error probability of structure learning decays faster than any polynomial in the number of samples under fixed model size. For the high-dimensional scenario where the size of the model d and the number of edges k scale with the number of samples n, sufficient conditions on (n,d,k) are given for the algorithm to satisfy structural and risk consistencies. In addition, the extremal structures for learning are identified; we prove that the independent (resp. tree) model is the hardest (resp. easiest) to learn using the proposed algorithm in terms of error rates for structure learning.

cs.IT↗
arXiv2010

Convex Graph Invariants

The structural properties of graphs are usually characterized in terms of invariants, which are functions of graphs that do not depend on the labeling of the nodes. In this paper we study convex graph invariants, which are graph invariants that are convex functions of the adjacency matrix of a graph. Some examples include functions of a graph such as the maximum degree, the MAXCUT value (and its semidefinite relaxation), and spectral invariants such as the sum of the $k$ largest eigenvalues. Such functions can be used to construct convex sets that impose various structural constraints on graphs, and thus provide a unified framework for solving a number of interesting graph problems via convex optimization. We give a representation of all convex graph invariants in terms of certain elementary invariants, and describe methods to compute or approximate convex graph invariants tractably. We also compare convex and non-convex invariants, and discuss connections to robust optimization. Finally we use convex graph invariants to provide efficient convex programming solutions to graph problems such as the deconvolution of the composition of two graphs into the individual components, hypothesis testing between graph families, and the generation of graphs with certain desired structural properties.

math.OC↗
arXiv2010

A Large-Deviation Analysis of the Maximum-Likelihood Learning of Markov Tree Structures

The problem of maximum-likelihood (ML) estimation of discrete tree-structured distributions is considered. Chow and Liu established that ML-estimation reduces to the construction of a maximum-weight spanning tree using the empirical mutual information quantities as the edge weights. Using the theory of large-deviations, we analyze the exponent associated with the error probability of the event that the ML-estimate of the Markov tree structure differs from the true tree structure, given a set of independently drawn samples. By exploiting the fact that the output of ML-estimation is a tree, we establish that the error exponent is equal to the exponential rate of decay of a single dominant crossover event. We prove that in this dominant crossover event, a non-neighbor node pair replaces a true edge of the distribution that is along the path of edges in the true tree graph connecting the nodes in the non-neighbor pair. Using ideas from Euclidean information theory, we then analyze the scenario of ML-estimation in the very noisy learning regime and show that the error exponent can be approximated as a ratio, which is interpreted as the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) for learning tree distributions. We show via numerical experiments that in this regime, our SNR approximation is accurate.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2010

Learning Latent Tree Graphical Models

We study the problem of learning a latent tree graphical model where samples are available only from a subset of variables. We propose two consistent and computationally efficient algorithms for learning minimal latent trees, that is, trees without any redundant hidden nodes. Unlike many existing methods, the observed nodes (or variables) are not constrained to be leaf nodes. Our first algorithm, recursive grouping, builds the latent tree recursively by identifying sibling groups using so-called information distances. One of the main contributions of this work is our second algorithm, which we refer to as CLGrouping. CLGrouping starts with a pre-processing procedure in which a tree over the observed variables is constructed. This global step groups the observed nodes that are likely to be close to each other in the true latent tree, thereby guiding subsequent recursive grouping (or equivalent procedures) on much smaller subsets of variables. This results in more accurate and efficient learning of latent trees. We also present regularized versions of our algorithms that learn latent tree approximations of arbitrary distributions. We compare the proposed algorithms to other methods by performing extensive numerical experiments on various latent tree graphical models such as hidden Markov models and star graphs. In addition, we demonstrate the applicability of our methods on real-world datasets by modeling the dependency structure of monthly stock returns in the S&P index and of the words in the 20 newsgroups dataset.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2010

Bayesian Nonparametric Inference of Switching Linear Dynamical Systems

Many complex dynamical phenomena can be effectively modeled by a system that switches among a set of conditionally linear dynamical modes. We consider two such models: the switching linear dynamical system (SLDS) and the switching vector autoregressive (VAR) process. Our Bayesian nonparametric approach utilizes a hierarchical Dirichlet process prior to learn an unknown number of persistent, smooth dynamical modes. We additionally employ automatic relevance determination to infer a sparse set of dynamic dependencies allowing us to learn SLDS with varying state dimension or switching VAR processes with varying autoregressive order. We develop a sampling algorithm that combines a truncated approximation to the Dirichlet process with efficient joint sampling of the mode and state sequences. The utility and flexibility of our model are demonstrated on synthetic data, sequences of dancing honey bees, the IBOVESPA stock index, and a maneuvering target tracking application.

stat.ME↗