arXiv subjects

Alan Yang

Publications and source records attributed to Alan Yang.

15 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

The Morality Game: An online multiplayer platform to standardize, expedite, and expand research on cooperation

This paper presents the Morality Game, a platform designed to standardize and accelerate research on cooperation and morality through game theory-based experiments. The Morality Game functions as a video game for science, a hub for economic game research, an open-access data repository, and a tool for expediting the research process. It allows researchers to launch customized online multiplayer experiments with zero coding, using game trees to simulate moral dilemmas. The platform automates participant payments, data collection, and analysis, promoting replication and transparency. This paper details the platform's architecture, emphasizing its capabilities for standardizing research methods, unifying data, and enabling rapid aggregation and comparison of results. The Morality Game leverages dynamic, self-correcting game trees to generate well-controlled, abstract experiments that can represent any social scenario. Participants interact through a responsive user interface, making the experiments intuitive and engaging. Researchers can configure experiments through a user-friendly dashboard, specifying various parameters and utilizing pre-created or auto-generated game trees. The platform supports nested belief representation and incorporates artificial agents with customizable traits. Plans include integrating social networking features, enhancing emotional expression capabilities, and expanding the platform's reach to remote small-scale societies to test the ecological validity of findings. By evolving into an integrated ecosystem that supports the entire research lifecycle, the Morality Game aims to foster collaboration, enhance data accessibility, and ultimately increase cooperation. This paper outlines the platform's current features, architectural details, and future directions, demonstrating its potential to advance cooperation research.

q-bio.NC↗

arXiv2026

DUET -- Dual User Embedding Transformers for Offsite Conversion Prediction

Offsite conversion rate (OCVR) prediction is an important ranking problem in computational recommendation systems. This task presents a modeling challenge: click signals are abundant and exhibit short temporal horizons, whereas conversion signals are inherently sparse, long-delayed, and frequently unattributed. Despite these statistical disparities, both signal types must inform models that operate within strict serving-latency constraints. Prior pre-training approaches address this heterogeneity with a single, undifferentiated encoder applied uniformly across both data streams. We propose DUET (Dual User Embedding Transformers), a framework that explicitly partitions user behavioral data into two domain-coherent streams -- clicks and conversions -- and pre-trains dedicated transformer encoders with architectures tailored to each stream's statistical characteristics: multi-layer self-attention for the dense click stream and interleaved cross- and self-attention for the sparse conversion stream. The resulting complementary embeddings are jointly consumed by a downstream ranker without exceeding serving-latency budgets. Evaluation demonstrates up to 0.38% normalized entropy (NE) reduction relative to the strongest baseline, and A/B test shows consistent improvements in OCVR prediction accuracy.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Iteratively Saturated Kalman Filtering

The Kalman filter (KF) provides optimal recursive state estimates for linear-Gaussian systems and underpins applications in control, signal processing, and others. However, it is vulnerable to outliers in the measurements and process noise. We introduce the iteratively saturated Kalman filter (ISKF), which is derived as a scaled gradient method for solving a convex robust estimation problem. It achieves outlier robustness while preserving the KF's low per-step cost and implementation simplicity, since in practice it typically requires only one or two iterations to achieve good performance. The ISKF also admits a steady-state variant that, like the standard steady-state KF, does not require linear system solves in each time step, making it well-suited for real-time systems.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2025

Refining Time Series Anomaly Detectors using Large Language Models

Time series anomaly detection (TSAD) is of widespread interest across many industries, including finance, healthcare, and manufacturing. Despite the development of numerous automatic methods for detecting anomalies, human oversight remains necessary to review and act upon detected anomalies, as well as verify their accuracy. We study the use of multimodal large language models (LLMs) to partially automate this process. We find that LLMs can effectively identify false alarms by integrating visual inspection of time series plots with text descriptions of the data-generating process. By leveraging the capabilities of LLMs, we aim to reduce the reliance on human effort required to maintain a TSAD system

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

Large-Scale GNSS Spreading Code Optimization

We propose a bit-flip descent method for optimizing binary spreading codes with large family sizes and long lengths, addressing the challenges of large-scale code design in GNSS and emerging PNT applications. The method iteratively flips code bits to improve the codes' auto- and cross-correlation properties. In our proposed method, bits are selected by sampling a small set of candidate bits and choosing the one that offers the best improvement in performance. The method leverages the fact that incremental impact of a bit flip on the auto- and cross-correlation may be efficiently computed without recalculating the entire function. We apply this method to two code design problems modeled after the GPS L1 C/A and Galileo E1 codes, demonstrating rapid convergence to low-correlation codes. The proposed approach offers a powerful tool for developing spreading codes that meet the demanding requirements of modern and future satellite navigation systems.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2024

Spreading Code Optimization for Low-Earth Orbit Satellites via Mixed-Integer Convex Programming

Optimizing the correlation properties of spreading codes is critical for minimizing inter-channel interference in satellite navigation systems. By improving the codes' correlation sidelobes, we can enhance navigation performance while minimizing the required spreading code lengths. In the case of low earth orbit (LEO) satellite navigation, shorter code lengths (on the order of a hundred) are preferred due to their ability to achieve fast signal acquisition. Additionally, the relatively high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) in LEO systems reduces the need for longer spreading codes to mitigate inter-channel interference. In this work, we propose a two-stage block coordinate descent (BCD) method which optimizes the codes' correlation properties while enforcing the autocorrelation sidelobe zero (ACZ) property. In each iteration of the BCD method, we solve a mixed-integer convex program (MICP) over a block of 25 binary variables. Our method is applicable to spreading code families of arbitrary sizes and lengths, and we demonstrate its effectiveness for a problem with 66 length-127 codes and a problem with 130 length-257 codes.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2023

Value-Gradient Iteration with Quadratic Approximate Value Functions

We propose a method for designing policies for convex stochastic control problems characterized by random linear dynamics and convex stage cost. We consider policies that employ quadratic approximate value functions as a substitute for the true value function. Evaluating the associated control policy involves solving a convex problem, typically a quadratic program, which can be carried out reliably in real-time. Such policies often perform well even when the approximate value function is not a particularly good approximation of the true value function. We propose value-gradient iteration, which fits the gradient of value function, with regularization that can include constraints reflecting known bounds on the true value function. Our value-gradient iteration method can yield a good approximate value function with few samples, and little hyperparameter tuning. We find that the method can find a good policy with computational effort comparable to that required to just evaluate a control policy via simulation.

math.OC↗

arXiv2022

Binary sequence set optimization for CDMA applications via mixed-integer quadratic programming

Finding sets of binary sequences with low auto- and cross-correlation properties is a hard combinatorial optimization problem with numerous applications, including multiple-input-multiple-output (MIMO) radar and global navigation satellite systems (GNSS). The sum of squared correlations, sometimes referred to as the integrated sidelobe level (ISL), is a quartic function in the variables and is a commonly-used metric of sequence set quality. In this paper, we show that the ISL minimization problem may be formulated as a mixed-integer quadratic program (MIQP). We then present a block coordinate descent (BCD) algorithm that iteratively optimizes over subsets of variables. The subset optimization subproblems are also MIQPs which may be handled more efficiently using specialized solvers than using exhaustive search; this allows us to perform BCD over larger variable subsets than previously possible. Our approach was used to find sets of four binary sequences of lengths up to 1023 with better ISL performance than Gold codes and sequence sets found using existing BCD methods.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2022

Input-to-State Stable Neural Ordinary Differential Equations with Applications to Transient Modeling of Circuits

This paper proposes a class of neural ordinary differential equations parametrized by provably input-to-state stable continuous-time recurrent neural networks. The model dynamics are defined by construction to be input-to-state stable (ISS) with respect to an ISS-Lyapunov function that is learned jointly with the dynamics. We use the proposed method to learn cheap-to-simulate behavioral models for electronic circuits that can accurately reproduce the behavior of various digital and analog circuits when simulated by a commercial circuit simulator, even when interconnected with circuit components not encountered during training. We also demonstrate the feasibility of learning ISS-preserving perturbations to the dynamics for modeling degradation effects due to circuit aging.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Combining Experimental and Observational Data for Identification and Estimation of Long-Term Causal Effects

We study identifying and estimating the causal effect of a treatment variable on a long-term outcome using data from an observational and an experimental domain. The observational data are subject to unobserved confounding. Furthermore, subjects in the experiment are only followed for a short period; thus, long-term effects are unobserved, though short-term effects are available. Consequently, neither data source alone suffices for causal inference on the long-term outcome, necessitating a principled fusion of the two. We propose three approaches for data fusion for the purpose of identifying and estimating the causal effect. The first assumes equal confounding bias for short-term and long-term outcomes. The second weakens this assumption by leveraging an observed confounder for which the short-term and long-term potential outcomes share the same partial additive association with this confounder. The third approach employs proxy variables of the latent confounder of the treatment-outcome relationship, extending the proximal causal inference framework to the data fusion setting. For each approach, we develop influence function-based estimators and analyze their robustness properties. We illustrate our methods by estimating the effect of class size on 8th-grade SAT scores using data from the Project STAR experiment combined with observational data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

Causal Inference with Hidden Mediators

Proximal causal inference was recently proposed as a framework to identify causal effects from observational data in the presence of hidden confounders for which proxies are available. In this paper, we extend the proximal causal inference approach to settings where identification of causal effects hinges upon a set of mediators which are not observed, yet error prone proxies of the hidden mediators are measured. Specifically, (i) We establish causal hidden mediation analysis, which extends classical causal mediation analysis methods for identifying natural direct and indirect effects under no unmeasured confounding to a setting where the mediator of interest is hidden, but proxies of it are available. (ii) We establish hidden front-door criterion, which extends the classical front-door criterion to allow for hidden mediators for which proxies are available. (iii) We show that the identification of a certain causal effect called population intervention indirect effect remains possible with hidden mediators in settings where challenges in (i) and (ii) might co-exist. We view (i)-(iii) as important steps towards the practical application of front-door criteria and mediation analysis as mediators are almost always measured with error and thus, the most one can hope for in practice is that the measurements are at best proxies of mediating mechanisms. We propose identification approaches for the parameters of interest in our considered models. For the estimation aspect, we propose an influence function-based estimation method and provide an analysis for the robustness of the estimators.

math.ST↗

arXiv2021

A Tutorial on Time-Dependent Cohort State-Transition Models in R using a Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Example

In an introductory tutorial, we illustrated building cohort state-transition models (cSTMs) in R, where the state transitions probabilities were constant over time. However, in practice, many cSTMs require transitions, rewards, or both to vary over time (time-dependent). This tutorial illustrates adding two types of time-dependency using a previously published cost-effectiveness analysis of multiple strategies as an example. The first is simulation-time dependence, which allows for the transition probabilities to vary as a function of time as measured since the start of the simulation (e.g., varying probability of death as the cohort ages). The second is state-residence time dependence, allowing for history by tracking the time spent in any particular health state using tunnel states. We use these time-dependent cSTMs to conduct cost-effectiveness and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. We also obtain various epidemiological outcomes of interest from the outputs generated from the cSTM, such as survival probability and disease prevalence, often used for model calibration and validation. We present the mathematical notation first, followed by the R code to execute the calculations. The full R code is provided in a public code repository for broader implementation.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2020

An Introductory Tutorial on Cohort State-Transition Models in R Using a Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Example

Decision models can combine information from different sources to simulate the long-term consequences of alternative strategies in the presence of uncertainty. A cohort state-transition model (cSTM) is a decision model commonly used in medical decision-making to simulate the transitions of a hypothetical cohort among various health states over time. This tutorial focuses on time-independent cSTM, where transition probabilities among health states remain constant over time. We implement time-independent cSTM in R, an open-source mathematical and statistical programming language. We illustrate time-independent cSTMs using a previously published decision model, calculate costs and effectiveness outcomes, conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of multiple strategies, including a probabilistic sensitivity analysis. We provide open-source code in R to facilitate wider adoption. In a second, more advanced tutorial, we illustrate time-dependent cSTMs.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2019

Model-Augmented Estimation of Conditional Mutual Information for Feature Selection

Markov blanket feature selection, while theoretically optimal, is generally challenging to implement. This is due to the shortcomings of existing approaches to conditional independence (CI) testing, which tend to struggle either with the curse of dimensionality or computational complexity. We propose a novel two-step approach which facilitates Markov blanket feature selection in high dimensions. First, neural networks are used to map features to low-dimensional representations. In the second step, CI testing is performed by applying the $k$-NN conditional mutual information estimator to the learned feature maps. The mappings are designed to ensure that mapped samples both preserve information and share similar information about the target variable if and only if they are close in Euclidean distance. We show that these properties boost the performance of the $k$-NN estimator in the second step. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated on both synthetic and real data.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Characterizing Distribution Equivalence and Structure Learning for Cyclic and Acyclic Directed Graphs

The main approach to defining equivalence among acyclic directed causal graphical models is based on the conditional independence relationships in the distributions that the causal models can generate, in terms of the Markov equivalence. However, it is known that when cycles are allowed in the causal structure, conditional independence may not be a suitable notion for equivalence of two structures, as it does not reflect all the information in the distribution that is useful for identification of the underlying structure. In this paper, we present a general, unified notion of equivalence for linear Gaussian causal directed graphical models, whether they are cyclic or acyclic. In our proposed definition of equivalence, two structures are equivalent if they can generate the same set of data distributions. We also propose a weaker notion of equivalence called quasi-equivalence, which we show is the extent of identifiability from observational data. We propose analytic as well as graphical methods for characterizing the equivalence of two structures. Additionally, we propose a score-based method for learning the structure from observational data, which successfully deals with both acyclic and cyclic structures.

cs.LG↗