arXiv subjects

Alba Rico

Publications and source records attributed to Alba Rico.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Evidence for a bursty $\gamma$-ray QPO in the neutrino-associated FSRQ PKS 1424$-$418 using Fast Template Periodograms and Machine Learning

Standard frequency-domain searches for quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs) in active galactic nuclei generally assume sinusoidal variability. However, $\gamma$-ray blazar emission often shows asymmetric flares and localized bursts, causing spectral leakage that can reduce the sensitivity of conventional methods to non-sinusoidal periodic signals. We analyze a blind sample of 100 high-cadence (7-day binned) Fermi-LAT blazar light curves. After baseline detrending with Singular Spectrum Analysis, we apply the Fast Template Periodogram using three template families: a sinusoid, a Gaussian burst, and an empirical asymmetric template derived from PG 1553+113. Candidate signals are then evaluated with a Random Forest classifier trained on $5\times10^4$ simulated light curves to distinguish genuine periodic phase structure from stochastic red noise. We identify nine $>3\sigma$ periodicity candidates. Three persistent QPOs, including PG 1553+113, are recovered by all template models, whereas six additional candidates are strongly suppressed under the standard sinusoidal assumption but become detectable with morphology-aware templates. Machine learning validation rejects five of these as lacking stable phase coherence. The remaining candidate, PKS 1424$-$418, shows a structurally stable 4.8-year periodicity with a source-specific significance of $3.76\sigma$ (approximately $2.4\sigma$ after accounting for the trial factor of the 100-source sample). These results demonstrate that morphology-aware periodograms, combined with structural machine learning validation, improve the detection of burst-dominated QPOs that are difficult to identify with traditional harmonic searches.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Distortions in Periodicity Analysis of Blazars: The Impact of Flares

Blazars, a unique class of active galactic nuclei, exhibit highly variable emission across the electromagnetic spectrum. This variability frequently manifests as intense flaring events, sparking an ongoing debate in recent literature about whether these flares exhibit periodic behavior in certain sources. However, many blazars also show clear signs of stochastic, uncorrelated flares that do not follow a regular pattern. This paper explores how the presence of one such of these stochastic flares can distort an intrinsically periodic pattern of emission in blazars. Our results demonstrate that, depending on the specific circumstances, the deviations in significance and periods can exceed 100\%. Sometimes, these deviations can be so severe that they eliminate any evidence of a periodic pattern. These findings highlight the dramatic impact that flares can have on periodicity searches. To confront this challenge, we propose an innovative approach, the Singular Spectrum Analysis method, which appears more robust against the effects of flares. As an alternative solution, we also propose the sigma clipping technique to mitigate the impact of flares. This framework offers a valuable foundation for analyzing periodicity in similar astrophysical sources that are also subject to stochastic flaring events.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

Singular Spectrum Analysis of Fermi-LAT Blazar Light Curves: A Systematic Search for Periodicity and Trends in the Time Domain

A majority of blazars exhibit variable emission across the entire electromagnetic spectrum, observed over various time scales. In particular, discernible periodic patterns are detected in the $\gamma$-ray light curves of a few blazars, such as PG 1553+113, S5 1044+71, and PKS 0426-380. The presence of trends, flares, and noise complicates periodicity detection, requiring careful analysis to determine whether these patterns arise from emission mechanisms or occur by chance. We employ Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) for the first time on data from the Large Area Telescope (LAT) aboard the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope to systematically search for periodicity using 28-day binned light curves. We aim to isolate any potential periodic nature of the emission from trends and noise, reducing uncertainties in revealing periodicity. Additionally, we characterize long-term trends and develop a forecasting algorithm based on SSA to predict future emission behavior. We apply SSA to analyze 494 sources detected by Fermi-LAT, focusing on isolating oscillatory components from trends and noise in their $\gamma$-ray light curves. We compute the Lomb-Scargle Periodogram for oscillatory components extracted by SSA to determine the most significant periods, assessing their local and global significance. Our analysis identifies 46 blazars as potential candidates for quasi-periodic $\gamma$-ray emissions, each with a local significance $\geq 2\sigma$. Notably, 33 exhibit a local significance of $\geq 4\sigma$ (corresponding to a global significance of $\geq 2.2\sigma$). Our findings introduce 25 new $\gamma$-ray candidates, doubling the number of potentially periodic sources. This study provides a foundation for future investigations by identifying promising candidates and their significance in blazar variability.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

Decade-long periodicity study of 2FHL blazars with historical optical data

In our recent investigation, we utilized a century's worth of archival optical data to search for a decade-long periodicity from the blazar PG 1553+113, finding a hint of a 22-yr period. Building on this foundation, the current study extends our analysis to include 10 blazars from the Fermi-Large Area Telescope Second Catalog of Hard Sources (2FHL) catalogue to uncover similar long-term periodic behaviour. To ensure the reliability of our findings, we consider the impact of observational limitations, such as temporal gaps and uneven sampling, which could potentially introduce artefacts or false periodic signals. Our analysis initially identifies decade-scale periodicity in four of these blazars (AP Librae, MKN 421, MKN 501, PG 1246+586). However, further investigation reveals that three of these are likely influenced by noise and poor sampling. The most promising candidate, approximately 51 $\pm$ 9 yr signal in MKN 421, corresponds to fewer than three full cycles and cannot be considered significant. Furthermore, global significance suggests none of the candidate periodicities meet the threshold for statistical significance. These results underscore the importance of accounting for sampling artefacts and highlight the need for robust methodologies in long-term periodicity searches.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2023

Constraining the PG 1553+113 binary hypothesis: interpreting hints of a new, 22-year period

PG 1553+113 is a well-known blazar exhibiting evidence of a $\sim\! 2.2$-yr quasi-periodic oscillation (QPO) in radio, optical, X-ray, and $\gamma$-ray bands. Since QPO mechanisms often predict multiple QPOs, we search for a second QPO in its historical optical light curve covering a century of observations. Despite challenging data quality issues, we find hints of a $21.8 \pm 4.7$ yr oscillation. On its own, this $\sim\! 22$-yr period has a modest statistical significance of $1.6\sigma$ when accounting for the look-elsewhere effect. However, the joint significance of both the $2.2$- and $22$-yr periods arising from colored noise alone is $\sim 3.6\sigma$. The next peak of the 22-yr oscillation is predicted to occur around July 2025. We find that such a $\sim\,$10:1 relation between two periods can arise in the gas dynamics of a plausible supermassive black hole binary model of PG 1553+113. While the 22-yr QPO is preliminary, an interpretation of PG 1553+113's two QPOs in this binary model suggests that the binary engine has a mass ratio $\gtrsim 0.2$, an eccentricity $\lesssim 0.1$, and accretes from a disk with characteristic aspect ratio $\sim 0.03$. The putative binary radiates nHz gravitational waves, but the amplitude is $\sim10-100$ times too low for detection by foreseeable pulsar timing arrays.

astro-ph.HE↗