SearcharxivSearch

arXiv subjects

Alberto Aleta

Publications and source records attributed to Alberto Aleta.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Collective cooperation without individual fidelity in LLM agents

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as agents in simulations of social systems, yet it remains unclear when their behavior can be interpreted as a faithful proxy for human decision-making. Here we test LLM agents against a direct empirical benchmark: a large-scale networked Prisoner's Dilemma experiment with human participants. Using the same interaction protocol, payoff structure, and network topologies, we compare nine open-weight LLMs with the human data. The selected model reproduces several macro-level features of cooperation dynamics, including the early decline and later stabilization of cooperation. This aggregate agreement, however, does not extend uniformly to finer levels of behavior. LLM populations underestimate individual-level heterogeneity and generate conditional cooperation patterns that differ from those observed in humans. Adding a fraction of random agents improves some aspects of micro-level agreement, but does not remove the mismatch in decision rules. These findings reveal a macro--micro dissociation in LLM-based social agents: collective outcomes can appear human-like even when the underlying behavioral distributions and mechanisms are not. They suggest that validating LLM agents as human surrogates requires comparisons across aggregate dynamics, individual heterogeneity, and context-dependent decision rules, rather than outcome-level agreement alone.

physics.soc-ph

Diversification of global food trade partners increased inequalities in the exposure to shock risks

Recent global food trade disruptions have evidenced how local shocks can cascade into global security threats. While the capacity of food systems to absorb spillovers depends heavily on its underlying trade networks, few studies quantify how their temporal evolution reshapes systemic vulnerability over time. Here, we evaluate how changes in global connectivity from 1986 to 2022 reshaped responses to production shocks. Using FAO data, we built yearly multiplex representations of the food trade system and quantified robustness through a stochastic shock-propagation model with dynamic export bans. We find that while increasing globalization intensified inter-dependencies and amplified cascades, robustness trends remain heterogeneous. Grain trade has become more decentralized and resilient to targeted shocks; conversely, Animal and Vegetable Fats exhibit growing centralization and fragility around key exporters like Indonesia and Malaysia. These structural transformations caused diverging shifts in systemic vulnerability, disproportionately threatening already vulnerable regions such as Africa and Southern Asia.

physics.soc-ph

Multilayer network science: theory, methods, and applications

Multilayer network science has emerged as a central framework for analysing interconnected and interdependent complex systems. Its relevance has grown substantially with the increasing availability of rich, heterogeneous data, which makes it possible to uncover and exploit the inherently multilayered organisation of many real-world networks. In this review, we summarise recent developments in the field. On the theoretical and methodological front, we outline core concepts and survey advances in community detection, dynamical processes, temporal networks, higher-order interactions, and machine-learning-based approaches. On the application side, we discuss progress across diverse domains, including interdependent infrastructures, spreading dynamics, computational social science, economic and financial systems, ecological and climate networks, science-of-science studies, network medicine, and network neuroscience. We conclude with a forward-looking perspective, emphasizing the need for standardised datasets and software, deeper integration of temporal and higher-order structures, and a transition toward genuinely predictive models of complex systems.

physics.soc-ph

Interplay of epidemic spreading and vaccine uptake under complex social contagion

Modeling human behavior is essential to accurately predict epidemic spread, with behaviors like vaccine hesitancy complicating control efforts. While epidemic spread is often treated as a simple contagion, vaccine uptake may follow complex contagion dynamics, where individuals' decisions depend on multiple social contacts. Recently, the concept of complex contagion has received strong theoretical underpinnings thanks to the generalization of spreading phenomena from pairwise to higher-order interactions. Although several potential applications have been suggested, examples of complex contagions motivated by real data remain scarce. Surveys on COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in the US suggest that vaccination attitudes may indeed depend on the vaccination status of social peers, aligning with complex contagion principles. In this work, we examine the interactions between epidemic spread, vaccination, and vaccine uptake attitudes under complex contagion. Using the SIR model with a dynamic, threshold-based vaccination campaign, we simulate scenarios on an age-structured multilayer network informed by US contact data. Our results offer insights into the role of social dynamics in shaping vaccination behavior and epidemic outcomes.

physics.soc-ph

Multilayer networks describing interactions in urban systems: a digital twin of five cities in Spain

Networks specifying who interacts with whom are crucial for mathematical models of epidemic spreading. In the context of emerging diseases, these networks have the potential to encode multiple interaction contexts where non-pharmaceutical interventions can be introduced, allowing for proper comparisons among different intervention strategies in a plethora of contexts. Consequently, a multilayer network describing interactions in a population and detailing their contexts in different layers constitutes an appropriate tool for such descriptions. These approaches however become challenging in large-scale systems such as cities, particularly in a framework where data protection policies are enhanced. In this work, we present a methodology to build such multilayer networks and make those corresponding to five Spanish cities available. Our work uses approaches informed by multiple available datasets to create realistic digital twins of the citizens and their interactions and provides a playground to explore different pandemic scenario in realistic settings for better preparedness.

physics.soc-ph

Generative Agent-Based Models for Complex Systems Research: a review

The advent of Large Language Models (LLMs) has significantly transformed the fields of natural and social sciences. Generative Agent-Based Models (GABMs), which utilize large language models in place of real subjects, are gaining increasing public attention. Far from aiming for comprehensiveness, this paper aims to offer readers an opportunity to understand how large language models are disrupting complex systems research and behavioral sciences. In particular, we evaluate recent advancements in various domains within complex systems, encompassing network science, evolutionary game theory, social dynamics, and epidemic propagation. Additionally, we propose possible directions for future research to further advance these fields.

physics.soc-ph

Contagion dynamics on higher-order networks

Understanding the dissemination of diseases, information, and behavior stands as a paramount research challenge in contemporary network and complex systems science. The COVID-19 pandemic and the proliferation of misinformation are relevant examples of the importance of these dynamic processes, which have recently gained more attention due to the potential of higher-order networks to unlock new avenues for their investigation. Despite being in its early stages, the examination of social contagion in higher-order networks has witnessed a surge of novel research and concepts, revealing different functional forms for the spreading dynamics and offering novel insights. This review presents a focused overview of this body of literature and proposes a unified formalism that covers most of these forms. The goal is to underscore the similarities and distinctions among various models, to motivate further research on the general and universal properties of such models. We also highlight that while the path for additional theoretical exploration appears clear, the empirical validation of these models through data or experiments remains scant, with an unsettled roadmap as of today. We therefore conclude with some perspectives aimed at providing possible research directions that could contribute to a better understanding of this class of dynamical processes, both from a theoretical and a data-oriented point of view.

physics.soc-ph

Understanding the Vegetable Oil Debate and Its Implications for Sustainability through Social Media

The global production and consumption of vegetable oils have sparked several discussions on sustainable development. This study analyzes over 20 million tweets related to vegetable oils to explore the key factors shaping public opinion. We found that coconut, olive, and palm oils dominate social media discourse despite their lower contribution to overall global vegetable production. The discussion about olive and palm oils remarkably correlates with Twitter's growth, while coconut increases more significantly with bursts of activity. Discussions around coconut and olive oils primarily focus on health, beauty, and food, while palm draws attention to pressing environmental concerns. Overall, virality is related to environmental issues and negative connotations. In the context of Sustainable Development Goals, this study highlights the multifaceted nature of the vegetable oil debate and its disconnection from scientific discussions. Our research sheds light on the power of social media in shaping public perception, providing insights into sustainable development strategies.

physics.soc-ph

Characterising the role of human behaviour in the effectiveness of contact-tracing applications

Albeit numerous countries relied on contact-tracing (CT) applications as an epidemic control measure against the COVID-19 pandemic, the debate around their effectiveness is still open. Most studies indicate that very high levels of adoption are required to stop disease progression, placing the main interest of policymakers in promoting app adherence. However, other factors of human behaviour, like delays in adherence or heterogeneous compliance, are often disregarded. To characterise the impact of human behaviour on the effectiveness of CT apps we propose a multilayer network model reflecting the co-evolution of an epidemic outbreak and the app adoption dynamics over a synthetic population generated from survey data. The model was initialised to produce epidemic outbreaks resembling the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and was used to explore the impact of different changes in behavioural features in peak incidence and maximal prevalence. The results corroborate the relevance of the number of users for the effectiveness of CT apps but also highlight the need for early adoption and, at least, moderate levels of compliance, which are factors often not considered by most policymakers. The insight obtained was used to identify a bottleneck in the implementation of several apps, such as the Spanish CT app, where we hypothesise that a simplification of the reporting system could result in increased effectiveness through a rise in the levels of compliance.

physics.soc-ph

Ethics in rotten apples: A network epidemiology approach for active cyber defense

As Internet of Things (IoT) technology grows, so does the threat of malware infections. A proposed countermeasure, the use of benevolent "white worms" to combat malicious "black worms", presents unique ethical and practical challenges. This study examines these issues via network epidemiology models and simulations, considering the propagation dynamics of both types of worms in various network topologies. Our findings highlight the critical role of the rate at which white worms activate themselves, relative to the user's system update rate, as well as the impact of the network structure on worm propagation. The results point to the potential of white worms as an effective countermeasure, while underscoring the ethical and practical complexities inherent in their deployment.

physics.soc-ph

An informational approach to uncover the age group interactions in epidemic spreading from macro analysis

We investigate the use of transfer entropy (TE) as a proxy to detect the contact patterns of the population in epidemic processes. We first apply the measure to a classical age-stratified SIR model and observe that the recovered patterns are consistent with the age-mixing matrix that encodes the interaction of the population. We then apply the TE analysis to real data from the COVID-19 pandemic in Spain and show that it can provide information on how the behavior of individuals changed through time. We also demonstrate how the underlying dynamics of the process allow us to build a coarse-grained representation of the time series that provides more information than raw time series. The macro-level representation is a more effective scale for analysis, which is an interesting result within the context of causal analysis across different scales. These results open the path for more research on the potential use of informational approaches to extract retrospective information on how individuals change and adapt their behavior during a pandemic, which is essential for devising adequate strategies for an efficient control of the spreading.

physics.soc-ph

Digital cities and the spread of COVID-19: characterizing the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions in five cities in Spain

Mathematical modeling has been fundamental to achieving near real-time accurate forecasts of the spread of COVID-19. Similarly, the design of non-pharmaceutical interventions has played a key role in the application of policies to contain the spread. However, there is less work done regarding quantitative approaches to characterize the impact of each intervention, which can greatly vary depending on the culture, region, and specific circumstances of the population under consideration. In this work, we develop a high-resolution, data-driven agent-based model of the spread of COVID-19 among the population in five Spanish cities. These populations synthesize multiple data sources that summarize the main interaction environments leading to potential contacts. We simulate the spreading of COVID-19 in these cities and study the effect of several non-pharmaceutical interventions. We illustrate the potential of our approach through a case study and derive the impact of the most relevant interventions through scenarios where they are suppressed. Our framework constitutes a first tool to simulate different intervention scenarios for decision-making.

physics.soc-ph

The unequal effects of the health-economy tradeoff during the COVID-19 pandemic

The potential tradeoff between health outcomes and economic impact has been a major challenge in the policy making process during the COVID-19 pandemic. Epidemic-economic models designed to address this issue are either too aggregate to consider heterogeneous outcomes across socio-economic groups, or, when sufficiently fine-grained, not well grounded by empirical data. To fill this gap, we introduce a data-driven, granular, agent-based model that simulates epidemic and economic outcomes across industries, occupations, and income levels with geographic realism. The key mechanism coupling the epidemic and economic modules is the reduction in consumption demand due to fear of infection. We calibrate the model to the first wave of COVID-19 in the New York metropolitan area, showing that it reproduces key epidemic and economic statistics, and then examine counterfactual scenarios. We find that: (a) both high fear of infection and strict restrictions similarly harm the economy but reduce infections; (b) low-income workers bear the brunt of both the economic and epidemic harm; (c) closing non-customer-facing industries such as manufacturing and construction only marginally reduces the death toll while considerably increasing unemployment; and (d) delaying the start of protective measures does little to help the economy and worsens epidemic outcomes in all scenarios. We anticipate that our model will help designing effective and equitable non-pharmaceutical interventions that minimize disruptions in the face of a novel pandemic.

econ.GN

Epidemic spreading in populations of mobile agents with adaptive behavioral response

Despite the advanced stage of epidemic modeling, there is a major demand for methods to incorporate behavioral responses to the spread of a disease such as social distancing and adoption of prevention methods. Mobility plays an important role in epidemic dynamics and is also affected by behavioral changes, but there are many situations in which real mobility data is incomplete or inaccessible. We present a model for epidemic spreading in temporal networks of mobile agents that incorporates local behavioral responses. Susceptible agents are allowed to move towards the opposite direction of infected agents in their neighborhood. We show that this mechanism considerably decreases the stationary prevalence when the spatial density of agents is low. However, for higher densities, the mechanism causes an abrupt phase transition, where a new bistable phase appears. We develop a semi-analytic approach for the case when the mobility is fast compared to the disease dynamics, and use it to argue that the bistability is caused by the emergence of spatial clusters of susceptible agents. Finally, we characterize the temporal networks formed in the fast mobility regime, showing how the degree distributions and other metrics are affected by the behavioral mechanism. Our work incorporates results previously known from adaptive networks into the population of mobile agents, which can be further developed to be used in mobility-driven models.

physics.soc-ph

Modeling the effects of social distancing on the large-scale spreading of diseases

To contain the propagation of emerging diseases that are transmissible from human to human, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) aimed at reducing the interactions between humans are usually implemented. One example of the latter kind of measures is social distancing, which can be either policy-driven or can arise endogenously in the population as a consequence of the fear of infection. However, if NPIs are lifted before the population reaches herd immunity, further re-introductions of the pathogen would lead to secondary infections. Here we study the effects of different social distancing schemes on the large scale spreading of diseases. Specifically, we generalize metapopulation models to include social distancing mechanisms at the subpopulation level and model short- and long-term strategies that are fed with local or global information about the epidemics. We show that different model ingredients might lead to very diverse outcomes in different subpopulations. Our results suggest that there is not a unique answer to the question of whether contention measures are more efficient if implemented and managed locally or globally and that model outcomes depends on how the full complexity of human interactions is taken into account.

physics.soc-ph

Prediction of scientific collaborations through multiplex interaction networks

Link prediction algorithms can help to understand the structure and dynamics of scientific collaborations and the evolution of Science. However, available algorithms based on similarity between nodes of collaboration networks are bounded by the limited amount of links present in these networks. In this work, we reduce the latter intrinsic limitation by generalizing the Adamic-Adar method to multiplex networks composed by an arbitrary number of layers, that encode diverse forms of scientific interactions. We show that the new metric outperforms other single-layered, similarity-based scores and that scientific credit, represented by citations, and common interests, measured by the usage of common keywords, can be predictive of new collaborations. Our work paves the way for a deeper understanding of the dynamics driving scientific collaborations, and provides a new algorithm for link prediction in multiplex networks that can be applied to a plethora of systems.

physics.soc-ph

Data-driven contact structures: from homogeneous mixing to multilayer networks

The modeling of the spreading of communicable diseases has experienced significant advances in the last two decades or so. This has been possible due to the proliferation of data and the development of new methods to gather, mine and analyze it. A key role has also been played by the latest advances in new disciplines like network science. Nonetheless, current models still lack a faithful representation of all possible heterogeneities and features that can be extracted from data. Here, we bridge a current gap in the mathematical modeling of infectious diseases and develop a framework that allows to account simultaneously for both the connectivity of individuals and the age-structure of the population. We compare different scenarios, namely, i) the homogeneous mixing setting, ii) one in which only the social mixing is taken into account, iii) a setting that considers the connectivity of individuals alone, and finally, iv) a multilayer representation in which both the social mixing and the number of contacts are included in the model. We analytically show that the thresholds obtained for these four scenarios are different. In addition, we conduct extensive numerical simulations and conclude that heterogeneities in the contact network are important for a proper determination of the epidemic threshold, whereas the age-structure plays a bigger role beyond the onset of the outbreak. Altogether, when it comes to evaluate interventions such as vaccination, both sources of individual heterogeneity are important and should be concurrently considered. Our results also provide an indication of the errors incurred in situations in which one cannot access all needed information in terms of connectivity and age of the population.

physics.soc-ph

Quantifying Uncertainty in a Predictive Model for Popularity Dynamics

The Hawkes process has garnered attention in recent years for its suitability to describe the behavior of online information cascades. Here, we present a fully tractable approach to analytically describe the distribution of the number of events in a Hawkes process, which, in contrast to purely empirical studies or simulation-based models, enables the effect of process parameters on cascade dynamics to be analyzed. We show that the presented theory also allows predictions regarding the future distribution of events after a given number of events have been observed during a time window. Our results are derived through a differential-equation approach to attain the governing equations of a general branching process. We confirm our theoretical findings through extensive simulations of such processes. This work provides the basis for more complete analyses of the self-exciting processes that govern the spreading of information through many communication platforms, including the potential to predict cascade dynamics within confidence limits.

physics.soc-ph