arXiv subjects

Alberto Mangiagli

Publications and source records attributed to Alberto Mangiagli.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Multi-messenger and Multi-band Studies of Massive Black Holes: the Synergies Between LISA and SKAO

Depending on its mass, the same gas-embedded massive black hole (BH) binary can emit gravitational waves (GWs) in one or more bands (nHz and mHz) concurrently, along with electromagnetic (EM) waves over the entire spectrum. The Square Kilometre Array Observatory (SKAO), thanks to its unparalleled sensitivity, will be pivotal in achieving coincident GW-EM (mHz-radio) and GW-GW (nHz-mHz) detections. We review the state-of-the-art predictions - achieved by means of numerical simulations and mock catalogues - of the numbers of detectable coincident GW-EM signals when employing the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) and SKA-Mid. By exploiting the same underlying BH binary populations, to allow for a fairer comparison, we then assess the importance of a variety of EM models for the radio flares and jets, finding that the number of radio counterparts of LISA sources is relatively insensitive to the jet/flare model employed and to whether SKA-Mid AA* or AA4 is assumed. Additionally, we describe how SKAO - as part of a pulsar timing array (PTA) - and LISA will provide the opportunity to detect the first low-frequency, multi-band (nHz-mHz) GW detection of the same object. Supermassive BH binaries embedded in gas discs are subjected to hydrodynamical torques, causing perturbations that produce additional small-amplitude, higher-frequency GWs. The main carrier GWs may thus be identifiable as a deterministic signal by SKAO-era PTAs, while the higher-frequency harmonics would shine in LISA as stochastic signals. Correlating these multi-band GWs would provide unprecedented constraints on the environment of the most massive BHs.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

The LISA Astrophysics MBHcatalogues Project: A comparison of predictions of simulated massive black hole binaries

In the hierarchical paradigm of galaxy formation, central massive black holes (MBHs) are expected to coalesce after the merger of their host galaxies. One of the main goals of the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) is to constrain the origin and growth of MBHs through their merger rates and mass distribution. Predicting MBH merger rates requires not only tracing their statistical population from large to small physical scales (kpc to sub-pc) but also modelling their formation, accretion, dynamics, mergers, and their galactic physical processes across cosmic time. This project is the result of a large collaborative effort undertaken by the LISA Astrophysics Working Group, bringing together its collective expertise on MBH formation, evolution, and modelling, to build a comprehensive understanding of MBH merger rates across cosmic time. The project compares various theoretical predictions of MBH merger rates, quantifies the spread, and evaluates the global astrophysical uncertainties of the LISA event rates. To build a unique and complete view, our work is based on about 20 semi-analytical models and cosmological simulations from the literature, all employing distinct approaches to modelling MBH and galaxy physics. To compute the merger rates, we also incorporate delays arising from the dynamical phase of MBH hardening to coalescence. We present the expected LISA merger rates given current galaxy formation models and discuss how the merger rate depends on model assumptions, such as the seeding model and the resolution of cosmological simulations.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2026

Reducing cosmological degeneracies by combining multiple classes of LISA gravitational-wave standard sirens

We present the first joint gravitational-wave cosmological inference with LISA extreme mass-ratio inspirals at $z\lesssim1$ (galaxy redshifts) and massive black hole binaries at $z\gtrsim1$ (electromagnetic counterparts). Combining these standard sirens reduces cosmological degeneracies and yields competitive constraints on the Hubble constant $H_0$ and the dark-energy equation-of-state parameter $w_0$. This highlights LISA's potential for late-time cosmology across a broad redshift range with systematics distinct from electromagnetic distance indicators.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

Testing gravitational wave polarizations with LISA

In this paper we quantify the ability of the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) to test the presence of non-tensorial polarizations as well as modifications to the tensor ones in gravitational waves emitted from massive black hole binaries. We employ the Parametrized Post-Einsteinian (PPE) formalism to model deviations from General Relativity (GR) for tensor, vector, and scalar polarizations. Our PPE parametrization is inspired by post-Newtonian waveforms from four modified gravity theories: Horndeski, Einstein-aether, Rosen's bimetric, and Lightman-Lee. We consistently implement these modifications across the inspiral, merger, and ringdown phases, ensuring proper waveform alignment and tapering. Subsequently, we perform Fisher forecasts to derive expected constraints on deviations from General Relativity and map these constraints to the parameter spaces of the four gravity theories. For tensor polarizations, LISA achieves constraints on amplitude modifications ranging between $\sim 10^{-4}-10^{-2}$ precision level, depending on the frequency evolution of the modifications, for systems with $10^5-10^7 {\, \rm M}_\odot$ at $z = 1$. We find that LISA can distinguish breathing and longitudinal scalar polarizations only for relatively light binaries with $M \lesssim 10^4 {\, \rm M}_\odot$, beyond which these modes become degenerate in the detector response. Importantly, constraints on vector polarizations are approximately 2-3 times more precise than for scalar polarizations. For both vector and scalar modes, amplitude measurements reach precisions ranging between $\sim 10^{-8}-10^{-2}$, depending on the frequency evolution of the modifications, for systems with $10^5-10^7 {\, \rm M}_\odot$ at $z = 1$. These results demonstrate LISA's potential to probe gravity in the strong-field regime via gravitational wave polarizations.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

Listening Across the Cosmic Time: Standard Sirens from Ground- and Space-Based Missions in the Next Decade

Precise measurement of the Hubble parameter will enable stringent tests of the standard model for cosmology. Standard sirens, using the luminosity distances measured by gravitational-wave observations of compact binary mergers, are expected to provide such measurements independently in the next decade. With the ground- and space-based gravitational wave observatories, the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) network and the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA), different types of standard sirens altogether will place constraints across a wide redshift range. In this paper, we forecast the precisions of standard siren Hubble parameter measurements and compare various scenarios, accounting for the dominant sources of systematic uncertainty. Specifically, we find a $2\%$ constraint on $H_0$, a $1.5-3\%$ constraint on $H(z)$ at $z=1$, and a $3-5\%$ constraint on $H(z)$ at $z=7$ when combining LVK and LISA standard sirens with precise redshift measurements from electromagnetic counterpart observations. We do not find a significant improvement when including standard sirens with no EM counterpart, but which rely on features in the black hole mass distribution, and the potential systematics introduced by the possible redshift evolution of such features could further degrade the measurement accuracy if not properly accounted for.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2024

LISA Definition Study Report

The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) is the first scientific endeavour to detect and study gravitational waves from space. LISA will survey the sky for Gravitational Waves in the 0.1 mHz to 1 Hz frequency band which will enable the study of a vast number of objects ranging from Galactic binaries and stellar mass black holes in the Milky Way, to distant massive black-hole mergers and the expansion of the Universe. This definition study report, or Red Book, presents a summary of the very large body of work that has been undertaken on the LISA mission over the LISA definition phase.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2023

Massive black hole binaries in LISA: constraining cosmological parameters at high redshifts

One of the scientific objectives of the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) is to probe the expansion of the Universe using gravitational wave observations. Indeed, as gravitational waves from the coalescence of a massive black hole binary (MBHB) carry direct information of its luminosity distance, an accompanying electromagnetic (EM) counterpart can be used to determine its redshift. This method of $bright$ $sirens$, when applied to LISA, enables one to build a gravitational Hubble diagram to high redshift. In this work, we forecast the ability of LISA-detected MBHB bright sirens to constrain cosmological models. The expected EM emission from MBHBs can be detected up to redshift $z\sim 7$ with future astronomical facilities, and the distribution of MBHBs with detectable counterpart peaks at $z\sim 2-3$. Therefore, we propose several methods to leverage the ability of LISA to constrain the expansion of the Universe at $z\sim 2-3$, a poorly charted epoch in cosmography. We find that the most promising method consists in using a model-independent approach based on a spline interpolation of the luminosity distance-redshift relation: in this case, LISA can constrain the Hubble parameter at $z\sim2-3$ with a relative precision of at least $10\%$.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2023

Massive Black Hole Binaries as LISA Precursors in the Roman High Latitude Time Domain Survey

With its capacity to observe $\sim 10^{5-6}$ faint active galactic nuclei (AGN) out to redshift $z\approx 6$, Roman is poised to reveal a population of $10^{4-6}\, {\rm M_\odot}$ black holes during an epoch of vigorous galaxy assembly. By measuring the light curves of a subset of these AGN and looking for periodicity, Roman can identify several hundred massive black hole binaries (MBHBs) with 5-12 day orbital periods, which emit copious gravitational radiation and will inevitably merge on timescales of $10^{3-5}$ years. During the last few months of their merger, such binaries are observable with the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA), a joint ESA/NASA gravitational wave mission set to launch in the mid-2030s. Roman can thus find LISA precursors, provide uniquely robust constraints on the LISA source population, help identify the host galaxies of LISA mergers, and unlock the potential of multi-messenger astrophysics with massive black hole binaries.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2023

Astrophysics with the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna

The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) will be a transformative experiment for gravitational wave astronomy, and, as such, it will offer unique opportunities to address many key astrophysical questions in a completely novel way. The synergy with ground-based and space-born instruments in the electromagnetic domain, by enabling multi-messenger observations, will add further to the discovery potential of LISA. The next decade is crucial to prepare the astrophysical community for LISA's first observations. This review outlines the extensive landscape of astrophysical theory, numerical simulations, and astronomical observations that are instrumental for modeling and interpreting the upcoming LISA datastream. To this aim, the current knowledge in three main source classes for LISA is reviewed; ultracompact stellar-mass binaries, massive black hole binaries, and extreme or intermediate mass ratio inspirals. The relevant astrophysical processes and the established modeling techniques are summarized. Likewise, open issues and gaps in our understanding of these sources are highlighted, along with an indication of how LISA could help making progress in the different areas. New research avenues that LISA itself, or its joint exploitation with upcoming studies in the electromagnetic domain, will enable, are also illustrated. Improvements in modeling and analysis approaches, such as the combination of numerical simulations and modern data science techniques, are discussed. This review is intended to be a starting point for using LISA as a new discovery tool for understanding our Universe.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2022

Observing the inspiral of coalescing massive black hole binaries with LISA in the era of Multi-Messenger Astrophysics

Massive black hole binaries (MBHBs) of $10^5 \, \rm M_\odot - 3 \times 10^7 \, \rm M_\odot $ merging in low redshift galaxies ($z\le4$) are sufficiently loud to be detected weeks before coalescence with the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). This allows us to perform the parameter estimation $on$ $the$ $fly$, i.e. as a function of the time to coalescence during the inspiral phase, relevant for early warning of the planned LISA protected periods and for searches of electromagnetic signals. In this work, we study the evolution of the sky position, luminosity distance, chirp mass and mass ratio uncertainties as function of time left before merger. Overall, light systems with total intrinsic mass $\rm M_{\rm tot} = 3 \times 10^5 \, \rm M_\odot$ are characterized by smaller uncertainties than heavy ones ($\rm M_{\rm tot} = 10^7 \, \rm M_\odot$) during the inspiral. Luminosity distance, chirp mass and mass ratio are well constrained at the end of the inspiral. Concerning sky position, at $z=1$, MBHBs with $\rm M_{\rm tot} = 3 \times 10^5 \, \rm M_\odot$ can be localized with a median precision of $\simeq 10^2 \, \rm deg^2 (\simeq 1 \, \rm deg^2)$ at 1 month (1 hour) from merger, while the sky position of heavy MBHBs can be determined to $10 \, \rm deg^2$ only 1 hour before merger. However the uncertainty around the median values broadens with time, ranging in between 0.04 -- 20 $\rm deg^2$ (0.3 -- 3 $\times 10^3 \, \rm deg^2$) for light (heavy) systems at 1 hour before merger. At merger the sky localization improves down to $\simeq 10^{-1} \, \rm deg^2$ for all masses. For the benefit of the observer community, we provide the full set of data from our simulations and simple and ready-to-use analytical fits to describe the time evolution of uncertainties in the aforementioned parameters, valid for systems with total mass between $10^5$--$10^7 \, \rm M_\odot$ and redshift $0.3$--$3$.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2022

Galaxy fields of LISA massive black hole mergers in a simulated Universe

LISA will extend the search for gravitational waves (GWs) at $0.1\,{-}\,100$ mHz where loud signals from coalescing binary black holes of $ 10^4 \,{-}\,10^7\,\rm M_{\odot}$ are expected. Depending on their mass and luminosity distance, the uncertainty in the LISA sky-localization decreases from hundreds of deg$^2$ during the inspiral phase to fractions of a deg$^2$ after the merger. By using the semi-analytical model L-Galaxies applied to the Millennium-I merger trees, we generate a simulated Universe to identify the hosts of $z\,{\leq}\,3$ coalescing binaries with total mass of $3\,{\times}\,10^{5}$, $3\,{\times}\,10^6$ and $3\,{\times}\,10^7\rm M_{\odot}$, and varying mass ratio. We find that, even at the time of merger, the number of galaxies around the LISA sources is too large (${\gtrsim}\,10^2$) to allow direct host identification. However, if an X-ray counterpart is associated to the GW sources at $z\,{<}\,1$, all LISA fields at merger are populated by ${\lesssim}\,10$ AGNs emitting above ${\sim}\, 10^{-17} \, \rm erg\,cm^{-2}\,s^{-1}$. For sources at higher redshifts, the poorer sky-localization causes this number to increase up to ${\sim}\, 10^3$. Archival data from eRosita will allow discarding ${\sim}\, 10\%$ of these AGNs, being too shallow to detect the dim X-ray luminosity of the GW sources. Inspiralling binaries in an active phase with masses ${\lesssim}\,10^6\rm M_{\odot}$ at $z\,{\leq}\,0.3$ can be detected, as early as $10$ hours before the merger, by future X-ray observatories in less than a few minutes. For these systems, ${\lesssim}\,10$ AGNs are within the LISA sky-localization area. Finally, the LISA-Taiji network would guarantee the identification of an X-ray counterpart $10$ hours before merger for all binaries at $z\,{\lesssim}\,1$.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2022

Cosmology with the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna

The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) has two scientific objectives of cosmological focus: to probe the expansion rate of the universe, and to understand stochastic gravitational-wave backgrounds and their implications for early universe and particle physics, from the MeV to the Planck scale. However, the range of potential cosmological applications of gravitational wave observations extends well beyond these two objectives. This publication presents a summary of the state of the art in LISA cosmology, theory and methods, and identifies new opportunities to use gravitational wave observations by LISA to probe the universe.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2022

Multiband gravitational wave cosmology with stellar origin black hole binaries

Massive stellar origin black hole binaries (SBHBs), originating from stars above the pair-instability mass gap, are primary candidates for multiband gravitational wave (GW) observations. Here we study the possibility to use them as effective dark standard sirens to constrain cosmological parameters. The long lasting inspiral signal emitted by these systems is accessible by the future $Laser \; Interferometer \; Space \; Antenna$ (LISA), while the late inspiral and merger are eventually detected by third generation ground-based telescopes such as the $Einstein \; Telescope$ (ET). The direct measurement of the luminosity distance and the sky position to the source, together with the inhomogeneous redshift distribution of possible host galaxies, allow us to infer cosmological parameters by probabilistic means. The efficiency of this statistical method relies in high parameter estimation performances. We show that this multiband approach allows a precise determination of the Hubble constant H$_0$ with just ${\cal O}(10)$ detected sources. For selected SBHB population models, assuming $4$ ($10$) years of LISA observations, we find that H$_0$ is typically determined at $\sim 2\%$ ($\sim 1.5\%$), whereas $Ω_m$ is only mildly constrained with a typical precision of $30\%$ ($20\%$). We discuss the origin of some outliers in our final estimates and we comment on ways to reduce their presence.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2022

The Effect of Mission Duration on LISA Science Objectives

The science objectives of the LISA mission have been defined under the implicit assumption of a 4 yr continuous data stream. Based on the performance of LISA Pathfinder, it is now expected that LISA will have a duty cycle of $\approx 0.75$, which would reduce the effective span of usable data to 3 yr. This paper reports the results of a study by the LISA Science Group, which was charged with assessing the additional science return of increasing the mission lifetime. We explore various observational scenarios to assess the impact of mission duration on the main science objectives of the mission. We find that the science investigations most affected by mission duration concern the search for seed black holes at cosmic dawn, as well as the study of stellar-origin black holes and of their formation channels via multi-band and multi-messenger observations. We conclude that an extension to 6 yr of mission operations is recommended.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2021

The Next Generation Global Gravitational Wave Observatory: The Science Book

The next generation of ground-based gravitational-wave detectors will observe coalescences of black holes and neutron stars throughout the cosmos, thousands of them with exceptional fidelity. The Science Book is the result of a 3-year effort to study the science capabilities of networks of next generation detectors. Such networks would make it possible to address unsolved problems in numerous areas of physics and astronomy, from Cosmology to Beyond the Standard Model of particle physics, and how they could provide insights into workings of strongly gravitating systems, astrophysics of compact objects and the nature of dense matter. It is inevitable that observatories of such depth and finesse will make new discoveries inaccessible to other windows of observation. In addition to laying out the rich science potential of the next generation of detectors, this report provides specific science targets in five different areas in physics and astronomy and the sensitivity requirements to accomplish those science goals. This report is the second in a six part series of reports by the GWIC 3G Subcommittee: i) Expanding the Reach of Gravitational Wave Observatories to the Edge of the Universe, ii) The Next Generation Global Gravitational Wave Observatory: The Science Book (this report), iii) 3G R&D: R&D for the Next Generation of Ground-based Gravitational Wave Detectors, iv) Gravitational Wave Data Analysis: Computing Challenges in the 3G Era, v) Future Ground-based Gravitational-wave Observatories: Synergies with Other Scientific Communities, and vi) An Exploration of Possible Governance Models for the Future Global Gravitational-Wave Observatory Network.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2020

Unveiling early black hole growth with multi-frequency gravitational wave observations

Third Generation ground based Gravitational Wave Interferometers, like the Einstein Telescope (ET), Cosmic Explorer (CE), and the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) will detectcoalescing binary black holes over a wide mass spectrum and across all cosmic epochs. We track the cosmological growth of the earliest light and heavy seeds that swiftly transit into the supermassive domain using a semi analytical model for the formation of quasars at $z=6.4$, 2 and $0.2$, in which we follow black hole coalescences driven by triple interactions. We find that light seed binaries of several $10^2$ M$_\odot$ are accessible to ET with a signal-to-noise ratio ($S/N$) of $10-20$ at $6 20$). Mergers involving heavy seeds ($\sim 10^5 M_\odot - 10^6 M_\odot$) would be within reach up to $z=20$ in the LISA frequency domain. The lower-z model predicts $11.25(18.7)$ ET(LISA) events per year, overall.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2019

Detectability of modulated X-rays from LISA's supermassive black hole mergers

One of the central goals of LISA is the detection of gravitational waves from the merger of supermassive black holes. Contrary to stellar-mass black hole mergers, such events are expected to be rich X-ray sources due to the accretion of material from the circumbinary disks onto the black holes. The orbital dynamics before merger is also expected to modulate the resulting X-ray emission via Doppler boosting in a quasi-periodic way, and in a simple phase relation with the gravitational wave from the inspiral of the black holes. Detecting the X-ray source would enable a precise and early localization of the binary, thus allowing many telescopes to observe the very moment of the merger. Although identifying the correct X-ray source in the relatively large LISA sky localization will be challenging due to the presence of many confounding point sources, the quasi-periodic modulation may aid in the identification. We explore the practical feasibility of such idea. We simulate populations of merging supermassive black holes, their detection with LISA and their X-ray lightcurves using a simple model. Taking the parameters of the X-ray Telescope on the proposed NASA Transient Astrophysics Probe, we then design and simulate an observation campaign that searches for the modulated X-ray source while LISA is still observing the inspiral of the black holes. Assuming a fiducial LISA detection rate of $10$ mergers per year at redshift closer than $3.5$, we expect a few detections of modulated X-ray counterparts over the nominal duration of the LISA mission.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2019

Merger rate of stellar black hole binaries above the pair instability mass gap

In current stellar evolutionary models, the occurrence of pair instability supernovae implies the lack of stellar black holes (BHs) with masses between about $[60, \, 120] \, \rm{M}_\odot$, resulting in the presence of an upper mass gap in the BH mass distribution. In this Letter, we develop a fiducial model describing BHs beyond the pair instability gap, by convolving the initial mass function and star formation rate with the metallicity evolution across cosmic time. Under the ansatz that the underlying physics of binary formation does not change beyond the gap, we then construct the cosmic population of merging BH binaries. The detection rate of BH binaries with both mass components above the gap, is found to range between $\simeq [0.4,\,7] \, \rm{yr}^{-1}$ for LIGO/Virgo at design sensitivity and $[10, \, 460] \, \rm{yr}^{-1}$ for third-generation ground based detectors, considering the most pessimistic and optimistic scenarios. LISA can detect individually these binaries up to thousands of years from coalescence. The number of events merging in less than four years, which enable multi-band observation in sequence, is expected in the range $[1, \, 20]$. While ET will detect all these events, LIGO/Virgo is expected to detect $\lesssim 50\%$ of them. Finally, we estimate that the gravitational-wave background from unresolved sources in the LISA band may be in principle detected with a signal-to-noise ratio between $ \simeq 2.5$ and $\simeq 80$.

astro-ph.HE↗