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Alec Kercheval

Publications and source records attributed to Alec Kercheval.

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The Long-Only Minimum Variance Portfolio in a One-Factor Market: Theory and Asymptotics

We study the long-only minimum variance (LOMV) portfolio under a one-factor covariance model with asset betas of arbitrary sign. We provide an explicit solution in terms of the set of active (positive weight) assets, and provide an explicit and computable characterization of the active set. As a corollary we resolve an open question of \citet{qi2021} concerning the extension to mixed-sign betas. In the high-dimensional regime $p \to \infty$ where the betas are drawn from a distribution with cdf $F$, we prove that the proportion of active assets (the active ratio) in the LOMV portfolio converges in almost all cases to $F(\beta^{*})$, where $\beta^* \geq 0$ is the root of an explicit integral equation determined by $F$. This is a variation of a result first appearing in \citet{bernstein2025}. In particular, when $F$ is continuous and all betas are positive ($F(0)=0$), the active ratio converges to zero. When $F(0) >0$ is small, under mild moment conditions and concentration bounds we establish the convergence rate $F(\beta^*)=O(F(0)^{1/3})$ as $F(0) \to 0$.

q-fin.MF

Multi Anchor Point Shrinkage for the Sample Covariance Matrix (Extended Version)

Portfolio managers faced with limited sample sizes must use factor models to estimate the covariance matrix of a high-dimensional returns vector. For the simplest one-factor market model, success rests on the quality of the estimated leading eigenvector "beta". When only the returns themselves are observed, the practitioner has available the "PCA" estimate equal to the leading eigenvector of the sample covariance matrix. This estimator performs poorly in various ways. To address this problem in the high-dimension, limited sample size asymptotic regime and in the context of estimating the minimum variance portfolio, Goldberg, Papanicolau, and Shkolnik developed a shrinkage method (the "GPS estimator") that improves the PCA estimator of beta by shrinking it toward a constant target unit vector. In this paper we continue their work to develop a more general framework of shrinkage targets that allows the practitioner to make use of further information to improve the estimator. Examples include sector separation of stock betas, and recent information from prior estimates. We prove some precise statements and illustrate the resulting improvements over the GPS estimator with some numerical experiments.

q-fin.CP