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Alejandra Rada

Publications and source records attributed to Alejandra Rada.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

The Maki-Thompson model with random awareness

We propose a rumor propagation model in which individuals within a homogeneously mixed population can assume one of infinitely many possible states. To analyze this model, we extend the classical law of large numbers for density-dependent population models in $\mathbb{R}^d$ (Ethier \& Kurtz in 2005) to an infinite--dimensional setting. Specifically, we prove a convergence result for stochastic processes in the space of $p$-summable real sequences, generalizing the finite-dimensional theory. We apply this framework to an infinite-dimensional continuous-time Markov chain that can be seen as a generalization of the Maki--Thompson model, where each ignorant individual becomes a spreader only after hearing the rumor a random number of times. We derive the asymptotic proportions of individuals in each state at the end of a rumor outbreak. Furthermore, we characterize the maximum proportion of individuals actively spreading the rumor and explore conditions under which the model exhibits waves of rumor propagation.

math.PR

The role of multiple repetitions on the size of a rumor

We propose a mathematical model to measure how multiple repetitions may influence in the ultimate proportion of the population never hearing a rumor during a given outbreak. The model is a multi-dimensional continuous-time Markov chain that can be seen as a generalization of the Maki-Thompson model for the propagation of a rumor within a homogeneously mixing population. In the well-known basic model, the population is made up of "spreaders", "ignorants" and "stiflers", and any spreader attempts to transmit the rumor to the other individuals via directed contacts. In case the contacted individual is an ignorant, it becomes a spreader, while in the other two cases the initiating spreader turns into a stifler. The process in a finite population will eventually reach an equilibrium situation, where individuals are either stiflers or ignorants. We generalize the model by assuming that each ignorant becomes a spreader only after hearing the rumor a predetermined number of times. We identify and analyze a suitable limiting dynamical system of the model, and we prove limit theorems that characterize the ultimate proportion of individuals in the different classes of the population.

math.PR