arXiv subjects

Alejandro Lopez-Lira

Publications and source records attributed to Alejandro Lopez-Lira.

33 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2025

The Memorization Problem: Can We Trust LLMs' Economic Forecasts?

Large language models (LLMs) cannot be trusted for economic forecasts during periods covered by their training data. Counterfactual forecasting ability is non-identified when the model has seen the realized values: any observed output is consistent with both genuine skill and memorization. Any evidence of memorization represents only a lower bound on encoded knowledge. We demonstrate LLMs have memorized economic and financial data, recalling exact values before their knowledge cutoff. Instructions to respect historical boundaries fail to prevent recall-level accuracy, and masking fails as LLMs reconstruct entities and dates from minimal context. Post-cutoff, we observe no recall. Memorization extends to embeddings.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2025

When Agents Trade: Live Multi-Market Trading Benchmark for LLM Agents

Although Large Language Model (LLM)-based agents are increasingly used in financial trading, it remains unclear whether they can reason and adapt in live markets, as most studies test models instead of agents, cover limited periods and assets, and rely on unverified data. To address these gaps, we introduce Agent Market Arena (AMA), the first lifelong, real-time benchmark for evaluating LLM-based trading agents across multiple markets. AMA integrates verified trading data, expert-checked news, and diverse agent architectures within a unified trading framework, enabling fair and continuous comparison under real conditions. It implements four agents, including InvestorAgent as a single-agent baseline, TradeAgent and HedgeFundAgent with different risk styles, and DeepFundAgent with memory-based reasoning, and evaluates them across GPT-4o, GPT-4.1, Claude-3.5-haiku, Claude-sonnet-4, and Gemini-2.0-flash. Live experiments on both cryptocurrency and stock markets demonstrate that agent frameworks display markedly distinct behavioral patterns, spanning from aggressive risk-taking to conservative decision-making, whereas model backbones contribute less to outcome variation. AMA thus establishes a foundation for rigorous, reproducible, and continuously evolving evaluation of financial reasoning and trading intelligence in LLM-based agents.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Can ChatGPT Forecast Stock Price Movements? Return Predictability and Large Language Models

We document the capability of large language models (LLMs) like ChatGPT to predict stock market reactions from news headlines without direct financial training. Using post-knowledge-cutoff headlines, GPT-4 captures initial market responses, achieving approximately 90% portfolio-day hit rates for the non-tradable initial reaction. GPT-4 scores also significantly predict the subsequent drift, especially for small stocks and negative news. Forecasting ability generally increases with model size, suggesting that financial reasoning is an emerging capacity of complex LLMs. Strategy returns decline as LLM adoption rises, consistent with improved price efficiency. To rationalize these findings, we develop a theoretical model that incorporates LLM technology, information-processing capacity constraints, underreaction, and limits to arbitrage.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2025

Your AI, Not Your View: The Bias of LLMs in Investment Analysis

In finance, Large Language Models (LLMs) face frequent knowledge conflicts arising from discrepancies between their pre-trained parametric knowledge and real-time market data. These conflicts are especially problematic in real-world investment services, where a model's inherent biases can misalign with institutional objectives, leading to unreliable recommendations. Despite this risk, the intrinsic investment biases of LLMs remain underexplored. We propose an experimental framework to investigate emergent behaviors in such conflict scenarios, offering a quantitative analysis of bias in LLM-based investment analysis. Using hypothetical scenarios with balanced and imbalanced arguments, we extract the latent biases of models and measure their persistence. Our analysis, centered on sector, size, and momentum, reveals distinct, model-specific biases. Across most models, a tendency to prefer technology stocks, large-cap stocks, and contrarian strategies is observed. These foundational biases often escalate into confirmation bias, causing models to cling to initial judgments even when faced with increasing counter-evidence. A public leaderboard benchmarking bias across a broader set of models is available at https://linqalpha.com/leaderboard

q-fin.PM↗

arXiv2025

MultiFinBen: Benchmarking Large Language Models for Multilingual and Multimodal Financial Application

Real-world financial analysis involves information across multiple languages and modalities, from reports and news to scanned filings and meeting recordings. Yet most existing evaluations of LLMs in finance remain text-only, monolingual, and largely saturated by current models. To bridge these gaps, we present MultiFinBen, the first expert-annotated multilingual (five languages) and multimodal (text, vision, audio) benchmark for evaluating LLMs in realistic financial contexts. MultiFinBen introduces two new task families: multilingual financial reasoning, which tests cross-lingual evidence integration from filings and news, and financial OCR, which extracts structured text from scanned documents containing tables and charts. Rather than aggregating all available datasets, we apply a structured, difficulty-aware selection based on advanced model performance, ensuring balanced challenge and removing redundant tasks. Evaluating 21 leading LLMs shows that even frontier multimodal models like GPT-4o achieve only 46.01% overall, stronger on vision and audio but dropping sharply in multilingual settings. These findings expose persistent limitations in multilingual, multimodal, and expert-level financial reasoning. All datasets, evaluation scripts, and leaderboards are publicly released.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

FinAgentBench: A Benchmark Dataset for Agentic Retrieval in Financial Question Answering

Accurate information retrieval (IR) is critical in the financial domain, where investors must identify relevant information from large collections of documents. Traditional IR methods -- whether sparse or dense -- often fall short in retrieval accuracy, as it requires not only capturing semantic similarity but also performing fine-grained reasoning over document structure and domain-specific knowledge. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have opened up new opportunities for retrieval with multi-step reasoning, where the model ranks passages through iterative reasoning about which information is most relevant to a given query. However, there exists no benchmark to evaluate such capabilities in the financial domain. To address this gap, we introduce FinAgentBench, the first large-scale benchmark for evaluating retrieval with multi-step reasoning in finance -- a setting we term agentic retrieval. The benchmark consists of 26K expert-annotated examples on S&P-500 listed firms and assesses whether LLM agents can (1) identify the most relevant document type among candidates, and (2) pinpoint the key passage within the selected document. Our evaluation framework explicitly separates these two reasoning steps to address context limitations. This design enables to provide a quantitative basis for understanding retrieval-centric LLM behavior in finance. We evaluate a suite of state-of-the-art models and further demonstrated how targeted fine-tuning can significantly improve agentic retrieval performance. Our benchmark provides a foundation for studying retrieval-centric LLM behavior in complex, domain-specific tasks for finance.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2025

FinDER: Financial Dataset for Question Answering and Evaluating Retrieval-Augmented Generation

In the fast-paced financial domain, accurate and up-to-date information is critical to addressing ever-evolving market conditions. Retrieving this information correctly is essential in financial Question-Answering (QA), since many language models struggle with factual accuracy in this domain. We present FinDER, an expert-generated dataset tailored for Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) in finance. Unlike existing QA datasets that provide predefined contexts and rely on relatively clear and straightforward queries, FinDER focuses on annotating search-relevant evidence by domain experts, offering 5,703 query-evidence-answer triplets derived from real-world financial inquiries. These queries frequently include abbreviations, acronyms, and concise expressions, capturing the brevity and ambiguity common in the realistic search behavior of professionals. By challenging models to retrieve relevant information from large corpora rather than relying on readily determined contexts, FinDER offers a more realistic benchmark for evaluating RAG systems. We further present a comprehensive evaluation of multiple state-of-the-art retrieval models and Large Language Models, showcasing challenges derived from a realistic benchmark to drive future research on truthful and precise RAG in the financial domain.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2025

Structuring the Unstructured: A Multi-Agent System for Extracting and Querying Financial KPIs and Guidance

Extracting structured and quantitative insights from unstructured financial filings is essential in investment research, yet remains time-consuming and resource-intensive. Conventional approaches in practice rely heavily on labor-intensive manual processes, limiting scalability and delaying the research workflow. In this paper, we propose an efficient and scalable method for accurately extracting quantitative insights from unstructured financial documents, leveraging a multi-agent system composed of large language models. Our proposed multi-agent system consists of two specialized agents: the \emph{Extraction Agent} and the \emph{Text-to-SQL Agent}. The \textit{Extraction Agent} automatically identifies key performance indicators from unstructured financial text, standardizes their formats, and verifies their accuracy. On the other hand, the \textit{Text-to-SQL Agent} generates executable SQL statements from natural language queries, allowing users to access structured data accurately without requiring familiarity with the database schema. Through experiments, we demonstrate that our proposed system effectively transforms unstructured text into structured data accurately and enables precise retrieval of key information. First, we demonstrate that our system achieves approximately 95\% accuracy in transforming financial filings into structured data, matching the performance level typically attained by human annotators. Second, in a human evaluation of the retrieval task -- where natural language queries are used to search information from structured data -- 91\% of the responses were rated as correct by human evaluators. In both evaluations, our system generalizes well across financial document types, consistently delivering reliable performance.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Open-FinLLMs: Open Multimodal Large Language Models for Financial Applications

Financial LLMs hold promise for advancing financial tasks and domain-specific applications. However, they are limited by scarce corpora, weak multimodal capabilities, and narrow evaluations, making them less suited for real-world application. To address this, we introduce \textit{Open-FinLLMs}, the first open-source multimodal financial LLMs designed to handle diverse tasks across text, tabular, time-series, and chart data, excelling in zero-shot, few-shot, and fine-tuning settings. The suite includes FinLLaMA, pre-trained on a comprehensive 52-billion-token corpus; FinLLaMA-Instruct, fine-tuned with 573K financial instructions; and FinLLaVA, enhanced with 1.43M multimodal tuning pairs for strong cross-modal reasoning. We comprehensively evaluate Open-FinLLMs across 14 financial tasks, 30 datasets, and 4 multimodal tasks in zero-shot, few-shot, and supervised fine-tuning settings, introducing two new multimodal evaluation datasets. Our results show that Open-FinLLMs outperforms afvanced financial and general LLMs such as GPT-4, across financial NLP, decision-making, and multi-modal tasks, highlighting their potential to tackle real-world challenges. To foster innovation and collaboration across academia and industry, we release all codes (https://anonymous.4open.science/r/PIXIU2-0D70/B1D7/LICENSE) and models under OSI-approved licenses.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Can Large Language Models Trade? Testing Financial Theories with LLM Agents in Market Simulations

This paper presents a realistic simulated stock market where large language models (LLMs) act as heterogeneous competing trading agents. The open-source framework incorporates a persistent order book with market and limit orders, partial fills, dividends, and equilibrium clearing alongside agents with varied strategies, information sets, and endowments. Agents submit standardized decisions using structured outputs and function calls while expressing their reasoning in natural language. Three findings emerge: First, LLMs demonstrate consistent strategy adherence and can function as value investors, momentum traders, or market makers per their instructions. Second, market dynamics exhibit features of real financial markets, including price discovery, bubbles, underreaction, and strategic liquidity provision. Third, the framework enables analysis of LLMs' responses to varying market conditions, similar to partial dependence plots in machine-learning interpretability. The framework allows simulating financial theories without closed-form solutions, creating experimental designs that would be costly with human participants, and establishing how prompts can generate correlated behaviors affecting market stability.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2024

No Language is an Island: Unifying Chinese and English in Financial Large Language Models, Instruction Data, and Benchmarks

While the progression of Large Language Models (LLMs) has notably propelled financial analysis, their application has largely been confined to singular language realms, leaving untapped the potential of bilingual Chinese-English capacity. To bridge this chasm, we introduce ICE-PIXIU, seamlessly amalgamating the ICE-INTENT model and ICE-FLARE benchmark for bilingual financial analysis. ICE-PIXIU uniquely integrates a spectrum of Chinese tasks, alongside translated and original English datasets, enriching the breadth and depth of bilingual financial modeling. It provides unrestricted access to diverse model variants, a substantial compilation of diverse cross-lingual and multi-modal instruction data, and an evaluation benchmark with expert annotations, comprising 10 NLP tasks, 20 bilingual specific tasks, totaling 95k datasets. Our thorough evaluation emphasizes the advantages of incorporating these bilingual datasets, especially in translation tasks and utilizing original English data, enhancing both linguistic flexibility and analytical acuity in financial contexts. Notably, ICE-INTENT distinguishes itself by showcasing significant enhancements over conventional LLMs and existing financial LLMs in bilingual milieus, underscoring the profound impact of robust bilingual data on the accuracy and efficacy of financial NLP.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2024

FinBen: A Holistic Financial Benchmark for Large Language Models

LLMs have transformed NLP and shown promise in various fields, yet their potential in finance is underexplored due to a lack of comprehensive evaluation benchmarks, the rapid development of LLMs, and the complexity of financial tasks. In this paper, we introduce FinBen, the first extensive open-source evaluation benchmark, including 36 datasets spanning 24 financial tasks, covering seven critical aspects: information extraction (IE), textual analysis, question answering (QA), text generation, risk management, forecasting, and decision-making. FinBen offers several key innovations: a broader range of tasks and datasets, the first evaluation of stock trading, novel agent and Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) evaluation, and three novel open-source evaluation datasets for text summarization, question answering, and stock trading. Our evaluation of 15 representative LLMs, including GPT-4, ChatGPT, and the latest Gemini, reveals several key findings: While LLMs excel in IE and textual analysis, they struggle with advanced reasoning and complex tasks like text generation and forecasting. GPT-4 excels in IE and stock trading, while Gemini is better at text generation and forecasting. Instruction-tuned LLMs improve textual analysis but offer limited benefits for complex tasks such as QA. FinBen has been used to host the first financial LLMs shared task at the FinNLP-AgentScen workshop during IJCAI-2024, attracting 12 teams. Their novel solutions outperformed GPT-4, showcasing FinBen's potential to drive innovation in financial LLMs. All datasets, results, and codes are released for the research community: https://github.com/The-FinAI/PIXIU.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

Empowering Many, Biasing a Few: Generalist Credit Scoring through Large Language Models

In the financial industry, credit scoring is a fundamental element, shaping access to credit and determining the terms of loans for individuals and businesses alike. Traditional credit scoring methods, however, often grapple with challenges such as narrow knowledge scope and isolated evaluation of credit tasks. Our work posits that Large Language Models (LLMs) have great potential for credit scoring tasks, with strong generalization ability across multiple tasks. To systematically explore LLMs for credit scoring, we propose the first open-source comprehensive framework. We curate a novel benchmark covering 9 datasets with 14K samples, tailored for credit assessment and a critical examination of potential biases within LLMs, and the novel instruction tuning data with over 45k samples. We then propose the first Credit and Risk Assessment Large Language Model (CALM) by instruction tuning, tailored to the nuanced demands of various financial risk assessment tasks. We evaluate CALM, existing state-of-art (SOTA) methods, open source and closed source LLMs on the build benchmark. Our empirical results illuminate the capability of LLMs to not only match but surpass conventional models, pointing towards a future where credit scoring can be more inclusive, comprehensive, and unbiased. We contribute to the industry's transformation by sharing our pioneering instruction-tuning datasets, credit and risk assessment LLM, and benchmarks with the research community and the financial industry.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Dólares or Dollars? Unraveling the Bilingual Prowess of Financial LLMs Between Spanish and English

Despite Spanish's pivotal role in the global finance industry, a pronounced gap exists in Spanish financial natural language processing (NLP) and application studies compared to English, especially in the era of large language models (LLMs). To bridge this gap, we unveil Toisón de Oro, the first bilingual framework that establishes instruction datasets, finetuned LLMs, and evaluation benchmark for financial LLMs in Spanish joint with English. We construct a rigorously curated bilingual instruction dataset including over 144K Spanish and English samples from 15 datasets covering 7 tasks. Harnessing this, we introduce FinMA-ES, an LLM designed for bilingual financial applications. We evaluate our model and existing LLMs using FLARE-ES, the first comprehensive bilingual evaluation benchmark with 21 datasets covering 9 tasks. The FLARE-ES benchmark results reveal a significant multilingual performance gap and bias in existing LLMs. FinMA-ES models surpass SOTA LLMs such as GPT-4 in Spanish financial tasks, due to strategic instruction tuning and leveraging data from diverse linguistic resources, highlighting the positive impact of cross-linguistic transfer. All our datasets, models, and benchmarks have been released.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2023

PIXIU: A Large Language Model, Instruction Data and Evaluation Benchmark for Finance

Although large language models (LLMs) has shown great performance on natural language processing (NLP) in the financial domain, there are no publicly available financial tailtored LLMs, instruction tuning datasets, and evaluation benchmarks, which is critical for continually pushing forward the open-source development of financial artificial intelligence (AI). This paper introduces PIXIU, a comprehensive framework including the first financial LLM based on fine-tuning LLaMA with instruction data, the first instruction data with 136K data samples to support the fine-tuning, and an evaluation benchmark with 5 tasks and 9 datasets. We first construct the large-scale multi-task instruction data considering a variety of financial tasks, financial document types, and financial data modalities. We then propose a financial LLM called FinMA by fine-tuning LLaMA with the constructed dataset to be able to follow instructions for various financial tasks. To support the evaluation of financial LLMs, we propose a standardized benchmark that covers a set of critical financial tasks, including five financial NLP tasks and one financial prediction task. With this benchmark, we conduct a detailed analysis of FinMA and several existing LLMs, uncovering their strengths and weaknesses in handling critical financial tasks. The model, datasets, benchmark, and experimental results are open-sourced to facilitate future research in financial AI.

cs.CL↗