arXiv subjects

Alejandro Morales-Hernández

Publications and source records attributed to Alejandro Morales-Hernández.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

A Direct Classification Approach for Reliable Wind Ramp Event Forecasting under Severe Class Imbalance

Decision support systems are essential for maintaining grid stability in low-carbon power systems, such as wind power plants, by providing real-time alerts to control room operators regarding potential events, including Wind Power Ramp Events (WPREs). These early warnings enable the timely initiation of more detailed system stability assessments and preventive actions. However, forecasting these events is challenging due to the inherent class imbalance in WPRE datasets, where ramp events are less frequent (typically less than 15\% of observed events) compared to normal conditions. Ignoring this characteristic undermines the performance of conventional machine learning models, which often favor the majority class. This paper introduces a novel methodology for WPRE forecasting as a multivariate time series classification task and proposes a data preprocessing strategy that extracts features from recent power observations and masks unavailable ramp information, making it integrable with traditional real-time ramp identification tools. Particularly, the proposed methodology combines majority-class undersampling and ensemble learning to enhance wind ramp event forecasting under class imbalance. Numerical simulations conducted on a real-world dataset demonstrate the superiority of our approach, achieving over 85% accuracy and 88% weighted F1 score, outperforming benchmark classifiers.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Traffic Modeling with SUMO: a Tutorial

This paper presents a step-by-step guide to generating and simulating a traffic scenario using the open-source simulation tool SUMO. It introduces the common pipeline used to generate a synthetic traffic model for SUMO, how to import existing traffic data into a model to achieve accuracy in traffic simulation (that is, producing a traffic model which dynamics is similar to the real one). It also describes how SUMO outputs information from simulation that can be used for data analysis purposes.

cs.NI↗

arXiv2023

Constrained multi-objective optimization of process design parameters in settings with scarce data: an application to adhesive bonding

Adhesive joints are increasingly used in industry for a wide variety of applications because of their favorable characteristics such as high strength-to-weight ratio, design flexibility, limited stress concentrations, planar force transfer, good damage tolerance, and fatigue resistance. Finding the optimal process parameters for an adhesive bonding process is challenging: the optimization is inherently multi-objective (aiming to maximize break strength while minimizing cost), constrained (the process should not result in any visual damage to the materials, and stress tests should not result in failures that are adhesion-related), and uncertain (testing the same process parameters several times may lead to different break strengths). Real-life physical experiments in the lab are expensive to perform. Traditional evolutionary approaches (such as genetic algorithms) are then ill-suited to solve the problem, due to the prohibitive amount of experiments required for evaluation. Although Bayesian optimization-based algorithms are preferred to solve such expensive problems, few methods consider the optimization of more than one (noisy) objective and several constraints at the same time. In this research, we successfully applied specific machine learning techniques (Gaussian Process Regression) to emulate the objective and constraint functions based on a limited amount of experimental data. The techniques are embedded in a Bayesian optimization algorithm, which succeeds in detecting Pareto-optimal process settings in a highly efficient way (i.e., requiring a limited number of physical experiments).

cs.NE↗

arXiv2022

A survey on multi-objective hyperparameter optimization algorithms for Machine Learning

Hyperparameter optimization (HPO) is a necessary step to ensure the best possible performance of Machine Learning (ML) algorithms. Several methods have been developed to perform HPO; most of these are focused on optimizing one performance measure (usually an error-based measure), and the literature on such single-objective HPO problems is vast. Recently, though, algorithms have appeared that focus on optimizing multiple conflicting objectives simultaneously. This article presents a systematic survey of the literature published between 2014 and 2020 on multi-objective HPO algorithms, distinguishing between metaheuristic-based algorithms, metamodel-based algorithms, and approaches using a mixture of both. We also discuss the quality metrics used to compare multi-objective HPO procedures and present future research directions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Multi-objective hyperparameter optimization with performance uncertainty

The performance of any Machine Learning (ML) algorithm is impacted by the choice of its hyperparameters. As training and evaluating a ML algorithm is usually expensive, the hyperparameter optimization (HPO) method needs to be computationally efficient to be useful in practice. Most of the existing approaches on multi-objective HPO use evolutionary strategies and metamodel-based optimization. However, few methods have been developed to account for uncertainty in the performance measurements. This paper presents results on multi-objective hyperparameter optimization with uncertainty on the evaluation of ML algorithms. We combine the sampling strategy of Tree-structured Parzen Estimators (TPE) with the metamodel obtained after training a Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) with heterogeneous noise. Experimental results on three analytical test functions and three ML problems show the improvement over multi-objective TPE and GPR, achieved with respect to the hypervolume indicator.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Measuring Wind Turbine Health Using Drifting Concepts

Time series processing is an essential aspect of wind turbine health monitoring. Despite the progress in this field, there is still room for new methods to improve modeling quality. In this paper, we propose two new approaches for the analysis of wind turbine health. Both approaches are based on abstract concepts, implemented using fuzzy sets, which summarize and aggregate the underlying raw data. By observing the change in concepts, we infer about the change in the turbine's health. Analyzes are carried out separately for different external conditions (wind speed and temperature). We extract concepts that represent relative low, moderate, and high power production. The first method aims at evaluating the decrease or increase in relatively high and low power production. This task is performed using a regression-like model. The second method evaluates the overall drift of the extracted concepts. Large drift indicates that the power production process undergoes fluctuations in time. Concepts are labeled using linguistic labels, thus equipping our model with improved interpretability features. We applied the proposed approach to process publicly available data describing four wind turbines. The simulation results have shown that the aging process is not homogeneous in all wind turbines.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2021

Multi-objective simulation optimization of the adhesive bonding process of materials

Automotive companies are increasingly looking for ways to make their products lighter, using novel materials and novel bonding processes to join these materials together. Finding the optimal process parameters for such adhesive bonding process is challenging. In this research, we successfully applied Bayesian optimization using Gaussian Process Regression and Logistic Regression, to efficiently (i.e., requiring few experiments) guide the design of experiments to the Pareto-optimal process parameter settings.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Online learning of windmill time series using Long Short-term Cognitive Networks

Forecasting windmill time series is often the basis of other processes such as anomaly detection, health monitoring, or maintenance scheduling. The amount of data generated on windmill farms makes online learning the most viable strategy to follow. Such settings require retraining the model each time a new batch of data is available. However, update the model with the new information is often very expensive to perform using traditional Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs). In this paper, we use Long Short-term Cognitive Networks (LSTCNs) to forecast windmill time series in online settings. These recently introduced neural systems consist of chained Short-term Cognitive Network blocks, each processing a temporal data chunk. The learning algorithm of these blocks is based on a very fast, deterministic learning rule that makes LSTCNs suitable for online learning tasks. The numerical simulations using a case study with four windmills showed that our approach reported the lowest forecasting errors with respect to a simple RNN, a Long Short-term Memory, a Gated Recurrent Unit, and a Hidden Markov Model. What is perhaps more important is that the LSTCN approach is significantly faster than these state-of-the-art models.

cs.LG↗