arXiv subjects

Alejandro Vigna-Gómez

Publications and source records attributed to Alejandro Vigna-Gómez.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

Design and analysis of tweet-based election models for the 2021 Mexican legislative election

Modelling and forecasting real-life human behaviour using online social media is an active endeavour of interest in politics, government, academia, and industry. Since its creation in 2006, Twitter has been proposed as a potential laboratory that could be used to gauge and predict social behaviour. During the last decade, the user base of Twitter has been growing and becoming more representative of the general population. Here we analyse this user base in the context of the 2021 Mexican Legislative Election. To do so, we use a dataset of 15 million election-related tweets in the six months preceding election day. We explore different election models that assign political preference to either the ruling parties or the opposition. We find that models using data with geographical attributes determine the results of the election with better precision and accuracy than conventional polling methods. These results demonstrate that analysis of public online data can outperform conventional polling methods, and that political analysis and general forecasting would likely benefit from incorporating such data in the immediate future. Moreover, the same Twitter dataset with geographical attributes is positively correlated with results from official census data on population and internet usage in Mexico. These findings suggest that we have reached a period in time when online activity, appropriately curated, can provide an accurate representation of offline behaviour.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2023

A binary origin for the first isolated stellar-mass black hole detected with astrometric microlensing

The Milky Way is believed to host hundreds of millions of quiescent stellar-mass black holes (BHs). In the last decade, some of these objects have been potentially uncovered via gravitational microlensing events. All these detections resulted in a degeneracy between the velocity and the mass of the lens. This degeneracy has been lifted, for the first time, with the recent astrometric microlensing detection of OB110462. However, two independent studies reported very different lens mass for this event. Sahu et al. (2022) inferred a lens mass of 7.1 $\pm$ 1.3 Msun, consistent with a BH, while Lam et al. (2022) inferred 1.6-4.2 Msun, consistent with either a neutron star or a BH. Here, we study the landscape of isolated BHs formed in the field. In particular, we focus on the mass and center-of-mass speed of four sub-populations: isolated BHs from single-star origin, disrupted BHs of binary-star origin, main-sequence stars with a compact object companion, and double compact object mergers. Our model predicts that most ($\gtrsim$ 70%) isolated BHs in the Milky Way are of binary origin. However, non-interactions lead to most massive BHs ($\gtrsim$ 15-20 Msun) being predominantly of single origin. Under the assumption that OB110462 is a free-floating compact object we conclude that it is more likely to be a BH originally belonging to a binary system. Our results suggest that low-mass BH microlensing events can be useful to understand binary evolution of massive stars in the Milky Way, while high-mass BH lenses can be useful to probe single stellar evolution.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2022

Uncovering a hidden black hole binary from secular eccentricity variations of a tertiary star

We study the dynamics of a solar-type star orbiting around a black hole binary (BHB) in a nearly coplanar system. We present a novel effect that can prompt a growth and significant oscillations of the eccentricity of the stellar orbit when the system encounters an "apsidal precession resonance", where the apsidal precession rate of the outer stellar orbit matches that of the inner BHB. The eccentricity excitation requires the inner binary to have a non-zero eccentricity and unequal masses, and can be created even in non-coplanar triples. We show that the secular variability of the stellar orbit's apocenter, induced by the changing eccentricity, could be potentially detectable by \textit{Gaia}. Detection is favorable for BHBs emitting gravitational waves in the frequency band of the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA), hence providing a distinctive, multi-messenger probe on the existence of stellar-mass BHBs in the Milky Way.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2022

Successful Common Envelope Ejection and Binary Neutron Star Formation in 3D Hydrodynamics

A binary neutron star merger has been observed in a multi-messenger detection of gravitational wave (GW) and electromagnetic (EM) radiation. Binary neutron stars that merge within a Hubble time, as well as many other compact binaries, are expected to form via common envelope evolution. Yet five decades of research on common envelope evolution have not yet resulted in a satisfactory understanding of the multi-spatial multi-timescale evolution for the systems that lead to compact binaries. In this paper, we report on the first successful simulations of common envelope ejection leading to binary neutron star formation in 3D hydrodynamics. We simulate the dynamical inspiral phase of the interaction between a 12$M_\odot$ red supergiant and a 1.4$M_\odot$ neutron star for different initial separations and initial conditions. For all of our simulations, we find complete envelope ejection and final orbital separations of $a_{\rm f} \approx 1.3$-$5.1 R_\odot$ depending on the simulation and criterion, leading to binary neutron stars that can merge within a Hubble time. We find $α_{\rm CE}$-equivalent efficiencies of $\approx 0.1$-$2.7$ depending on the simulation and criterion, but this may be specific for these extended progenitors. We fully resolve the core of the star to $\lesssim 0.005 R_\odot$ and our 3D hydrodynamics simulations are informed by an adjusted 1D analytic energy formalism and a 2D kinematics study in order to overcome the prohibitive computational cost of simulating these systems. The framework we develop in this paper can be used to simulate a wide variety of interactions between stars, from stellar mergers to common envelope episodes leading to GW sources.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2022

Hypercritical accretion during common envelopes in triples leading to binary black holes in the pair-instability-supernova mass gap

Hydrodynamic studies of stellar-mass compact objects (COs) in a common envelope (CE)have shown that the accretion rate onto the CO is a few orders of magnitude below the Bondi-Hoyle-Lyttleton (BHL) estimate. This is several orders of magnitude above the Eddington limit and above the limit for neutrino-cooled accretion (i.e., hypercritical accretion, or HCA). Considering that a binary system inside the CE of a third star accretes material at nearly the same rate as a single object of the same total mass, we propose stellar-evolution channels which form binary black hole (BBH) systems with its component masses within the pair-instability supernova (PISN) mass gap. Our model is based on HCA onto the BBH system engulfed into the CE of a massive tertiary star. Furthermore, we propose a mass transfer mode which allows to store mass lost by the binary onto a third star. Through the use of population synthesis simulations for the evolution of BBHs and standard binary-evolution principles for the interaction with a tertiary star, we are able to produce BBHs masses consistent with those estimated for GW190521. We also discuss the massive binary system Mk34 as a possible progenitor of BBHs in the PISN gap, as well as the spin distribution of the observed mergers in the gravitational-wave catalog.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2022

Mergers prompted by dynamics in compact, multiple-star systems: a stellar-reduction case for the massive triple TIC 470710327

TIC 470710327, a massive compact hierarchical triple-star system, was recently identified by NASA's Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS). TIC 470710327 is comprised of a compact (1.10 d) circular eclipsing binary, with total mass $\approx 10.9-13.2\ \rm{M_{\odot}}$, and a more massive ($\approx 14-17\ \rm{M_{\odot}}$) eccentric non-eclipsing tertiary in a $52.04$ d orbit. Here we present a progenitor scenario for TIC 470710327 in which '2+2' quadruple dynamics result in Zeipel-Lidov-Kozai (ZLK) resonances that lead to a contact phase of the more massive binary. In this scenario, the two binary systems should form in a very similar manner, and dynamics trigger the merger of the more massive binary either during late phases of star formation or several Myr after the zero-age main sequence (ZAMS), when the stars begin to expand. Any evidence that the tertiary is a highly-magnetised ($\sim 1-10$ kG), slowly-rotating blue main-sequence star would hint towards a quadruple origin. Finally, our scenario suggests that the population of inclined, compact multiple-stellar systems is reduced into co-planar systems, via mergers, late during star formation or early in the main sequence. The elucidation of the origin of TIC 470710327 is crucial in our understanding of multiple massive-star formation and evolution.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2022

Stripped-envelope stars in different metallicity environments. II. Type I supernovae and compact remnants

Stripped-envelope stars can be observed as Wolf-Rayet (WR) stars, or as less luminous hydrogen-poor stars with low mass loss rates and transparent winds. Both types are potential progenitors of Type I core-collapse supernovae (SNe). We use grids of core-collapse models obtained from helium stars at different metallicities to study the effects of metallicity on the transients and remnants these stars produce. We characterise the surface and core properties of our core collapse models, and investigate their explodability employing three criteria. In cases where explosions are predicted, we estimate the ejecta mass, explosion energy, nickel mass and neutron star (NS) mass. Otherwise, we predict the mass of the resulting black hole (BH). We construct a simplified population model, and find that the properties SNe and compact objects depend strongly on metallicity. Ejecta masses and explosion energies for Type Ic SNe are best reproduced by models with Z=0.04 which exhibit strong winds during core helium burning. This implies that either their mass loss rates are underestimated, or that Type Ic SN progenitors experience mass loss through other mechanisms before exploding. The distributions of ejecta masses, explosion energies and nickel mass for Type Ib SNe are not well reproduced by progenitor models with WR mass loss, but are better reproduced if we assume no mass loss in progenitors with luminosities below the minimum WR star luminosity. We find that Type Ic SNe become more common as metallicity increases, and that the vast majority of progenitors of Type Ib SNe must be transparent-wind stripped-envelope stars. We find several models with pre-collapse CO-masses of up to $\sim 30 M_{\odot}$ may form $\sim 3 M_{\odot}$ BHs in fallback SNe. This may carry important consequences for our understanding of SNe, binary BH and NS systems, X-ray binary systems and gravitational wave transients.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2022

Stripped-Envelope Stars in Different Metallicity Environments I. Evolutionary Phases, Classification and Populations

Massive stars that become stripped of their hydrogen envelope through binary interaction or winds can be observed either as Wolf-Rayet stars, if they have optically thick winds, or as transparent-wind stripped-envelope stars. We approximate their evolution through evolutionary models of single helium stars, and compute detailed model grids in the initial mass range 1.5 to 70 M$_{\odot}$ for metallicities between 0.01 and 0.04, from core helium ignition until core collapse. Throughout their lifetime, some stellar models expose the ashes of helium burning. We propose that models that have nitrogen-rich envelopes are candidate WN stars, while models with a carbon-rich surface are candidate WC stars during core helium burning, and WO stars afterwards. We measure metallicity dependance of the total lifetime of our models and the duration of their evolutionary phases. We propose an analytic estimate of the wind optical depth to distinguish models of Wolf-Rayet stars from transparent-wind stripped-envelope stars, and find that the luminosity ranges at which WN, WC and WO type stars can exist is a strong function of metallicity. We find that all carbon-rich models produced in our grids have optically thick winds and match the luminosity distribution of observed populations. We construct population models and predict the numbers of transparent-wind stripped-envelope stars and Wolf-Rayet stars, and derive their number ratios at different metallicities. We find that as metallicity increases, the number of transparent-wind stripped-envelope stars decreases and the number of Wolf-Rayet stars increases. At high metallicities WC and WO type stars become more common. We apply our population models to nearby galaxies, and find that populations are more sensitive to the transition luminosity between Wolf-Rayet stars and transparent-wind helium stars than to the metallicity dependent mass loss rates.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2022

Stellar response after stripping as a model for common-envelope outcomes

Binary neutron stars have been observed as millisecond pulsars, gravitational-wave sources, and as the progenitors of short gamma-ray bursts and kilonovae. Massive stellar binaries that evolve into merging double neutron stars are believed to experience a common-envelope episode. During this episode, the envelope of a giant star engulfs the whole binary. The energy transferred from the orbit to the envelope by drag forces or from other energy sources can eject the envelope from the binary system, leading to a stripped short-period binary. In this paper, we use one-dimensional single stellar evolution to explore the final stages of the common-envelope phase in progenitors of neutron star binaries. We consider an instantaneously stripped donor star as a proxy for the common-envelope phase and study the star's subsequent radial evolution. We determine a range of stripping boundaries which allow the star to avoid significant rapid re-expansion and which thus represent plausible boundaries for the termination of the common-envelope episode. We find that these boundaries lie above the maximum compression point, a commonly used location of the core/envelope boundary. We conclude that stars may retain fractions of a solar mass of hydrogen-rich material even after the common-envelope episode. If we consider orbital energy as the only energy source available, all of our models would overfill their Roche lobe after ejecting the envelope, whose binding energy includes gravitational, thermal, radiation, and recombination energy terms.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2021

Explodability fluctuations of massive stellar cores enable asymmetric compact object mergers such as GW190814

The first three observing runs with Advanced LIGO and Virgo have resulted in the detection of binary black hole mergers (BBH) with highly unequal mass components, which are difficult to reconcile with standard formation paradigms. The most representative of these is GW190814, a highly asymmetric merger between a 23 M$_{\odot}$ black hole and a 2.6 M$_{\odot}$ compact object. Here, we explore recent results suggesting that a sizeable fraction of stars with pre-collapse carbon-oxygen core masses above 10 M$_{\odot}$, and extending up to at least 30 M$_{\odot}$, may produce objects inside the so-called lower mass gap that bridges the division between massive pulsars and BHs in Galactic X-ray binaries. We demonstrate that such an explosion landscape would naturally cause a fraction of massive binaries to produce GW190814-like systems instead of symmetric-mass BBHs. We present examples of specific evolutionary channels leading to the formation of GW190814 and GW200210, a 24+2.8 M$_{\odot}$ merger discovered during the O3b observing run. We estimate the merger-rate density of these events in our scenario to be $\mathcal{O}$(5%) of the total BBH merger rate. Finally, we discuss the broader implications of this formation channel for compact object populations, and its possible relevance to less asymmetric merger events such as GW200105 and GW200115

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2021

Impact of Massive Binary Star and Cosmic Evolution on Gravitational Wave Observations II: Double Compact Object Rates and Properties

Making the most of the rapidly increasing population of gravitational-wave detections of black hole (BH) and neutron star (NS) mergers requires comparing observations with population synthesis predictions. In this work we investigate the combined impact from the key uncertainties in population synthesis modelling of the isolated binary evolution channel: the physical processes in massive binary-star evolution and the star formation history as a function of metallicity, $Z$, and redshift $z, \mathcal{S}(Z,z)$. Considering these uncertainties we create 560 different publicly available model realizations and calculate the rate and distribution characteristics of detectable BHBH, BHNS, and NSNS mergers. We find that our stellar evolution and $\mathcal{S}(Z,z)$ variations can impact the predicted intrinsic and detectable merger rates by factors $10^2$-$10^4$. We find that BHBH rates are dominantly impacted by $\mathcal{S}(Z,z)$ variations, NSNS rates by stellar evolution variations and BHNS rates by both. We then consider the combined impact from all uncertainties considered in this work on the detectable mass distribution shapes (chirp mass, individual masses and mass ratio). We find that the BHNS mass distributions are predominantly impacted by massive binary-star evolution changes. For BHBH and NSNS we find that both uncertainties are important. We also find that the shape of the delay time and birth metallicity distributions are typically dominated by the choice of $\mathcal{S}(Z,z)$ for BHBH, BHNS and NSNS. We identify several examples of robust features in the mass distributions predicted by all 560 models, such that we expect more than 95% of BHBH detections to contain a BH $\gtrsim 8\,\rm{M}_{\odot}$ and have mass ratios $\lesssim 4$. Our work demonstrates that it is essential to consider a wide range of allowed models to study double compact object merger rates and properties.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2021

Constraints on Weak Supernova Kicks from Observed Pulsar Velocities

Observations of binary pulsars and pulsars in globular clusters suggest that at least some pulsars must receive weak natal kicks at birth. If all pulsars received strong natal kicks above \unit[50]{\kms}, those born in globular clusters would predominantly escape, while wide binaries would be disrupted. On the other hand, observations of transverse velocities of isolated radio pulsars indicate that only $5\pm2\%$ have velocities below \unit[50]{\kms}. We explore this apparent tension with rapid binary population synthesis modelling. We propose a model in which supernovae with characteristically low natal kicks (e.g., electron-capture supernovae) only occur if the progenitor star has been stripped via binary interaction with a companion. We show that this model naturally reproduces the observed pulsar speed distribution and without reducing the predicted merging double neutron star yield. We estimate that the zero-age main sequence mass range for non-interacting progenitors of electron-capture supernovae should be no wider than ${\approx}0.2 M_\odot$.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2021

Impact of Massive Binary Star and Cosmic Evolution on Gravitational Wave Observations I: Black Hole-Neutron Star Mergers

Mergers of black hole-neutron star (BHNS) binaries have now been observed by GW detectors with the recent announcement of GW200105 and GW200115. Such observations not only provide confirmation that these systems exist, but will also give unique insights into the death of massive stars, the evolution of binary systems and their possible association with gamma-ray bursts, $r$-process enrichment and kilonovae. Here we perform binary population synthesis of isolated BHNS systems in order to present their merger rate and characteristics for ground-based GW observatories. We present the results for 420 different model permutations that explore key uncertainties in our assumptions about massive binary star evolution (e.g. mass transfer, common-envelope evolution, supernovae), and the metallicity-specific star formation rate density, and characterize their relative impacts on our predictions. We find intrinsic local BHNS merger rates spanning $\mathcal{R}_{\rm{m}}^0 \approx 4$-$830\,\rm{Gpc}^{-3}\,\rm{yr}^{-1}$ for our full range of assumptions. This encompasses the rate inferred from recent BHNS GW detections, and would yield detection rates of $\mathcal{R}_{\rm{det}} \approx 1$-$180\, \rm{yr}^{-1}$ for a GW network consisting of LIGO, Virgo and KAGRA at design sensitivity. We find that the binary evolution and metallicity-specific star formation rate density each impact the predicted merger rates by order $\mathcal{O}(10)$. We also present predictions for the GW detected BHNS merger properties and find that all 420 model variations predict that $\lesssim 5\%$ of the BHNS mergers have BH masses $\gtrsim 18\,M_{\odot}$, total masses $ \gtrsim 20\,M_{\odot}$, chirp masses $\gtrsim 5.5\,M_{\odot}$, mass ratios $ \gtrsim 12$ or $\lesssim 2$. Moreover, we find that massive NSs $\gtrsim 2\,M_{\odot}$ are expected to be commonly detected in BHNS mergers in almost all our model variations.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2021

Fallback supernova assembly of heavy binary neutron stars and light black hole-neutron star pairs and the common stellar ancestry of GW190425 and GW200115

The detection of the unusually heavy binary neutron star merger GW190425 marked a stark contrast to the mass distribution from known Galactic pulsars in double neutron star binaries and gravitational-wave source GW170817. We suggest here a formation channel for heavy binary neutron stars and light black hole - neutron star binaries in which massive helium stars, which had their hydrogen envelope removed during a common envelope phase, remain compact and avoid mass transfer onto the neutron star companion, possibly avoiding pulsar recycling. We present three-dimensional simulations of the supernova explosion of the massive stripped helium star and follow the mass fallback evolution and the subsequent accretion onto the neutron star companion. We find that fallback leads to significant mass growth in the newly formed neutron star. This can explain the formation of heavy binary neutron star systems such as GW190425, as well as predict the assembly of light black hole - neutron star systems such as GW200115. This formation avenue is consistent with the observed mass-eccentricity correlation of binary neutron stars in the Milky Way. Finally, avoiding mass transfer suggests an unusually long spin-period population of pulsar binaries in our Galaxy.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2020

Massive Stellar Triples Leading to Sequential Binary Black-Hole Mergers in the Field

Stellar triples with massive stellar components are common, and can lead to sequential binary black-hole mergers. Here, we outline the evolution towards these sequential mergers, and explore these events in the context of gravitational-wave astronomy and the pair-instability mass gap. We find that binary black-hole mergers in the pair-instability mass gap can be of triple origin and therefore are not exclusively formed in dense dynamical environments. We discuss the sequential merger scenario in the context of the most massive gravitational-wave sources detected to date: GW170729 and GW190521. We propose that the progenitor of GW170729 is a low-metallicity field triple. We support the premise that GW190521 could not have been formed in the field. We conclude that triple stellar evolution is fundamental in the understanding of gravitational-wave sources, and likely, other energetic transientsas well.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2020

Be X-ray binaries in the SMC as indicators of mass transfer efficiency

Be X-ray binaries (BeXRBs) consist of rapidly rotating Be stars with neutron star companions accreting from the circumstellar emission disk. We compare the observed population of BeXRBs in the Small Magellanic Cloud with simulated populations of BeXRB-like systems produced with the COMPAS population synthesis code. We focus on the apparently higher minimal mass of Be stars in BeXRBs than in the Be population at large. Assuming that BeXRBs experienced only dynamically stable mass transfer, their mass distribution suggests that at least 30% of the mass donated by the progenitor of the neutron star is typically accreted by the B-star companion. We expect these results to affect predictions for the population of double compact object mergers. A convolution of the simulated BeXRB population with the star formation history of the Small Magellanic Cloud shows that the excess of BeXRBs is most likely explained by this galaxy's burst of star formation around 20--40 Myr ago.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2020

Common-Envelope Episodes that lead to Double Neutron Star formation

Close double neutron stars have been observed as Galactic radio pulsars, while their mergers have been detected as gamma-ray bursts and gravitational-wave sources. They are believed to have experienced at least one common-envelope episode during their evolution prior to double neutron star formation. In the last decades there have been numerous efforts to understand the details of the common-envelope phase, but its computational modelling remains challenging. We present and discuss the properties of the donor and the binary at the onset of the Roche-lobe overflow leading to these common-envelope episodes as predicted by rapid binary population synthesis models. These properties can be used as initial conditions for detailed simulations of the common-envelope phase. There are three distinctive populations, classified by the evolutionary stage of the donor at the moment of the onset of the Roche-lobe overflow: giant donors with fully-convective envelopes, cool donors with partially-convective envelopes, and hot donors with radiative envelopes. We also estimate that, for standard assumptions, tides would not circularise a large fraction of these systems by the onset of Roche-lobe overflow. This makes the study and understanding of eccentric mass-transferring systems relevant for double neutron star populations.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2020

Luminous Red Novae: population models and future prospects

A class of optical transients known as Luminous Red Novae (LRNe) have recently been associated with mass ejections from binary stars undergoing common-envelope evolution. We use the population synthesis code COMPAS to explore the impact of a range of assumptions about the physics of common-envelope evolution on the properties of LRNe. In particular, we investigate the influence of various models for the energetics of LRNe on the expected event rate and light curve characteristics, and compare with the existing sample. We find that the Galactic rate of LRNe is $\sim 0.2$ yr$^{-1}$, in agreement with the observed rate. In our models, the luminosity function of Galactic LRNe covers multiple decades in luminosity and is dominated by signals from stellar mergers, consistent with observational constraints from iPTF and the Galactic sample of LRNe. We discuss how observations of the brightest LRNe may provide indirect evidence for the existence of massive ($> 40$ M$_\odot$) red supergiants. Such LRNe could be markers along the evolutionary pathway leading to the formation of double compact objects. We make predictions for the population of LRNe observable in future transient surveys with the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope and the Zwicky Transient Facility. In all plausible circumstances, we predict a selection-limited observable population dominated by bright, long-duration events caused by common envelope ejections. We show that the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope will observe $20$--$750$ LRNe per year, quickly constraining the luminosity function of LRNe and probing the physics of common-envelope events.

astro-ph.HE↗