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Aleksandar Mijatovic

Publications and source records attributed to Aleksandar Mijatovic.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Stationary entrance chains and applications to random walks

For a Markov chain $Y$ with values in a Polish space, consider the entrance chain, obtained by sampling $Y$ at the moments when it enters a fixed set $A$ from its complement $A^c$. Similarly, consider the exit chain, obtained by sampling $Y$ at the exit times from $A^c$ to $A$. We use the method of inducing from ergodic theory to study invariant measures of these two types of Markov chains in the case when the initial chain $Y$ has a known invariant measure. We give explicit formulas for invariant measures of the entrance and exit chains under certain recurrence-type assumptions on $A$ and $A^c$, which apply even for transient chains. Then we study uniqueness and ergodicity of these invariant measures assuming that $Y$ is topologically recurrent, topologically irreducible, and weak Feller. We give applications to random walks in $R^d$, which we regard as ``stationary'' Markov chains started under the Lebesgue measure. We are mostly interested in dimension one, where we study the Markov chain of overshoots above the zero level of a random walk that oscillates between $-\infty$ and $+\infty$. We show that this chain is ergodic, and use this result to prove a central limit theorem for the number of level crossings of a random walk with zero mean and finite variance of increments.

math.PR↗

Monte Carlo estimation of the solution of fractional partial differential equations

The paper is devoted to the numerical solutions of fractional PDEs based on its probabilistic interpretation, that is, we construct approximate solutions via certain Monte Carlo simulations. The main results represent the upper bound of errors between the exact solution and the Monte Carlo approximation, the estimate of the fluctuation via the appropriate central limit theorem(CLT) and the construction of confidence intervals. Moreover, we provide rates of convergence in the CLT via Berry-Esseen type bounds. Concrete numerical computations and illustrations are included.

math.PR↗

Coupling and a generalised Policy Iteration Algorithm in continuous time

We analyse a version of the policy iteration algorithm for the discounted infinite-horizon problem for controlled multidimensional diffusion processes, where both the drift and the diffusion coefficient can be controlled. We prove that, under assumptions on the problem data, the payoffs generated by the algorithm converge monotonically to the value function and an accumulation point of the sequence of policies is an optimal policy. The algorithm is stated and analysed in continuous time and state, with discretisation featuring neither in theorems nor the proofs. A key technical tool used to show that the algorithm is well-defined is the mirror coupling of Lindvall and Rogers.

math.PR↗

On the Poisson equation for Metropolis-Hastings chains

This paper defines an approximation scheme for a solution of the Poisson equation of a geometrically ergodic Metropolis-Hastings chain $Φ$. The approximations give rise to a natural sequence of control variates for the ergodic average $S_k(F)=(1/k)\sum_{i=1}^{k} F(Φ_i)$, where $F$ is the force function in the Poisson equation. The main result of the paper shows that the sequence of the asymptotic variances (in the CLTs for the control-variate estimators) converges to zero and gives a rate of this convergence. Numerical examples in the case of a double-well potential are discussed.

math.PR↗

Randomisation and recursion methods for mixed-exponential Levy models, with financial applications

We develop a new Monte Carlo variance reduction method to estimate the expectation of two commonly encountered path-dependent functionals: first-passage times and occupation times of sets. The method is based on a recursive approximation of the first-passage time probability and expected occupation time of sets of a Levy bridge process that relies in part on a randomisation of the time parameter. We establish this recursion for general Levy processes and derive its explicit form for mixed-exponential jump-diffusions, a dense subclass (in the sense of weak approximation) of Levy processes, which includes Brownian motion with drift, Kou's double-exponential model and hyper-exponential jump-diffusion models. We present a highly accurate numerical realisation and derive error estimates. By way of illustration the method is applied to the valuation of range accruals and barrier options under exponential Levy models and Bates-type stochastic volatility models with exponential jumps. Compared with standard Monte Carlo methods, we find that the method is significantly more efficient.

math.PR↗

Mirror and Synchronous Couplings of Geometric Brownian Motions

The paper studies the question of whether the classical mirror and synchronous couplings of two Brownian motions minimise and maximise, respectively, the coupling time of the corresponding geometric Brownian motions. We establish a characterisation of the optimality of the two couplings over any finite time horizon and show that, unlike in the case of Brownian motion, the optimality fails in general even if the geometric Brownian motions are martingales. On the other hand, we prove that in the cases of the ergodic average and the infinite time horizon criteria, the mirror coupling and the synchronous coupling are always optimal for general (possibly non-martingale) geometric Brownian motions. We show that the two couplings are efficient if and only if they are optimal over a finite time horizon and give a conjectural answer for the efficient couplings when they are suboptimal.

math.PR↗

Joint asymptotic distribution of certain path functionals of the reflected process

Let $τ(x)$ be the first time the reflected process $Y$ of a Levy processes $X$ crosses x>0. The main aim of the paper is to investigate the asymptotic dependence of the path functionals: $Y(t) = X(t) - \inf_{0\leq s\leq t}X(s)$, $M(t,x)=\sup_{0\leq s\leq t}Y(s)-x$ and $Z(x)=Y(τ(x))-x$. We prove that under Cramer's condition on X(1), the functionals $Y(t)$, $M(t,y)$ and $Z(x+y)$ are asymptotically independent as $\min\{t,y,x\}\to\infty$. We also characterise the law of the limiting overshoot $Z(\infty)$ of the reflected process. If, as $\min\{t,x\}\to\infty$, the quantity $t\te{-γx}$ has a positive limit ($γ$ denotes the Cramér coefficient), our results together with the theorem of Doney & Maller (2005) imply the existence and the explicit form of the joint weak limit $(Y(\infty),M(\infty),Z(\infty))$.

math.PR↗

On the drawdown of completely asymmetric Levy processes

The {\em drawdown} process $Y$ of a completely asymmetric Lévy process $X$ is equal to $X$ reflected at its running supremum $\bar{X}$: $Y = \bar{X} - X$. In this paper we explicitly express in terms of the scale function and the Lévy measure of $X$ the law of the sextuple of the first-passage time of $Y$ over the level $a>0$, the time $\bar{G}_{τ_a}$ of the last supremum of $X$ prior to $τ_a$, the infimum $\unl X_{τ_a}$ and supremum $\ovl X_{τ_a}$ of $X$ at $τ_a$ and the undershoot $a - Y_{τ_a-}$ and overshoot $Y_{τ_a}-a$ of $Y$ at $τ_a$. As application we obtain explicit expressions for the laws of a number of functionals of drawdowns and rallies in a completely asymmetric exponential Lévy model.

math.PR↗

On the Limit Distributions of Continuous-State Branching Processes with Immigration

We consider the class of continuous-state branching processes with immigration (CBI-processes), introduced by Kawazu and Watanabe (1971) and their limit distributions as time tends to infinity. We determine the Levy-Khintchine triplet of the limit distribution and give an explicit description in terms of the characteristic triplets of the Levy subordinator and the spectrally positive Levy process, which describe the immigration resp. branching mechanism of the CBI-process. This representation allows us to describe the support of the limit distribution and characterise its absolute continuity and asymptotic behavior at the boundary of the support, generalizing several known results on self-decomposable distributions.

math.PR↗

Large deviations for the extended Heston model: the large-time case

We study here the large-time behaviour of all continuous affine stochastic volatility models (in the sense of Keller-Ressel) and deduce a closed-form formula for the large-maturity implied volatility smile. Based on refinements of the Gartner-Ellis theorem on the real line, our proof reveals pathological behaviours of the asymptotic smile. In particular, we show that the condition assumed in Gatheral and Jacquier under which the Heston implied volatility converges to the SVI parameterisation is necessary and sufficient.

q-fin.PR↗

Large deviations and stochastic volatility with jumps: asymptotic implied volatility for affine models

Let $σ_t(x)$ denote the implied volatility at maturity $t$ for a strike $K=S_0 e^{xt}$, where $x\in\bbR$ and $S_0$ is the current value of the underlying. We show that $σ_t(x)$ has a uniform (in $x$) limit as maturity $t$ tends to infinity, given by the formula $σ_\infty(x)=\sqrt{2}(h^*(x)^{1/2}+(h^*(x)-x)^{1/2})$, for $x$ in some compact neighbourhood of zero in the class of affine stochastic volatility models. The function $h^*$ is the convex dual of the limiting cumulant generating function $h$ of the scaled log-spot process. We express $h$ in terms of the functional characteristics of the underlying model. The proof of the limiting formula rests on the large deviation behaviour of the scaled log-spot process as time tends to infinity. We apply our results to obtain the limiting smile for several classes of stochastic volatility models with jumps used in applications (e.g. Heston with state-independent jumps, Bates with state-dependent jumps and Barndorff-Nielsen-Shephard model).

q-fin.PR↗

A note on essential smoothness in the Heston model

This note studies an issue relating to essential smoothness that can arise when the theory of large deviations is applied to a certain option pricing formula in the Heston model. The note identifies a gap, based on this issue, in the proof of Corollary 2.4 in \cite{FordeJacquier10} and describes how to circumvent it. This completes the proof of Corollary 2.4 in \cite{FordeJacquier10} and hence of the main result in \cite{FordeJacquier10}, which describes the limiting behaviour of the implied volatility smile in the Heston model far from maturity.

q-fin.PR↗

Continuously monitored barrier options under Markov processes

In this paper we present an algorithm for pricing barrier options in one-dimensional Markov models. The approach rests on the construction of an approximating continuous-time Markov chain that closely follows the dynamics of the given Markov model. We illustrate the method by implementing it for a range of models, including a local Levy process and a local volatility jump-diffusion. We also provide a convergence proof and error estimates for this algorithm.

q-fin.PR↗

On the Martingale Property of Certain Local Martingales

The stochastic exponential $Z_t=\exp\{M_t-M_0-(1/2) _t\}$ of a continuous local martingale $M$ is itself a continuous local martingale. We give a necessary and sufficient condition for the process $Z$ to be a true martingale in the case where $M_t=\int_0^t b(Y_u)\,dW_u$ and $Y$ is a one-dimensional diffusion driven by a Brownian motion $W$. Furthermore, we provide a necessary and sufficient condition for $Z$ to be a uniformly integrable martingale in the same setting. These conditions are deterministic and expressed only in terms of the function $b$ and the drift and diffusion coefficients of $Y$. As an application we provide a deterministic criterion for the absence of bubbles in a one-dimensional setting.

math.PR↗

Asymptotic formulae for implied volatility in the Heston model

In this paper we prove an approximate formula expressed in terms of elementary functions for the implied volatility in the Heston model. The formula consists of the constant and first order terms in the large maturity expansion of the implied volatility function. The proof is based on saddlepoint methods and classical properties of holomorphic functions.

q-fin.PR↗

Empirical asset pricing with nonlinear risk premia

In this paper we introduce a simple continuous-time asset pricing framework, based on general multi-dimensional diffusion processes, that combines semi-analytic pricing with a nonlinear specification for the market price of risk. Our framework guarantees existence of weak solutions of the nonlinear SDEs under the physical measure, thus allowing to work with nonlinear models for the real world dynamics not considered in the literature so far. It emerges that the additional flexibility in the time series modelling is econometrically relevant: a nonlinear stochastic volatility diffusion model for the joint time series of the S&P 100 and the VXO implied volatility index data shows superior forecasting power over the standard specifications for implied and realized variance forecasting.

q-fin.ST↗

Local time and the pricing of time-dependent barrier options

A time-dependent double-barrier option is a derivative security that delivers the terminal value $ϕ(S_T)$ at expiry $T$ if neither of the continuous time-dependent barriers $b_\pm:[0,T]\to \RR_+$ have been hit during the time interval $[0,T]$. Using a probabilistic approach we obtain a decomposition of the barrier option price into the corresponding European option price minus the barrier premium for a wide class of payoff functions $ϕ$, barrier functions $b_\pm$ and linear diffusions $(S_t)_{t\in[0,T]}$. We show that the barrier premium can be expressed as a sum of integrals along the barriers $b_\pm$ of the option's deltas $Δ_\pm:[0,T]\to\RR$ at the barriers and that the pair of functions $(Δ_+,Δ_-)$ solves a system of Volterra integral equations of the first kind. We find a semi-analytic solution for this system in the case of constant double barriers and briefly discus a numerical algorithm for the time-dependent case.

q-fin.PR↗

Triangulations of fibre-free Haken 3-manifolds

It is not known whether there exists a computable function bounding the number of Pachner moves needed to connect any two triangulation of a compact 3-manifold. In this paper we find an explicit bound of this kind for all Haken 3-manifolds which contain no fibred submanifolds as strongly simple pieces of their JSJ-decomposition. The explicit formula for the bound is in terms of the number of tetrahedra in the two triangulations. This implies a conceptually trivial algorithm for recognising any non-fibred knot complement among all 3-manifolds.

math.GT↗