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Alessandro Abate

Publications and source records attributed to Alessandro Abate.

173 records · Page 10Linked to original sources
arXiv2015

Sampling-based Approximations with Quantitative Performance for the Probabilistic Reach-Avoid Problem over General Markov Processes

This article deals with stochastic processes endowed with the Markov (memoryless) property and evolving over general (uncountable) state spaces. The models further depend on a non-deterministic quantity in the form of a control input, which can be selected to affect the probabilistic dynamics. We address the computation of maximal reach-avoid specifications, together with the synthesis of the corresponding optimal controllers. The reach-avoid specification deals with assessing the likelihood that any finite-horizon trajectory of the model enters a given goal set, while avoiding a given set of undesired states. This article newly provides an approximate computational scheme for the reach-avoid specification based on the Fitted Value Iteration algorithm, which hinges on random sample extractions, and gives a-priori computable formal probabilistic bounds on the error made by the approximation algorithm: as such, the output of the numerical scheme is quantitatively assessed and thus meaningful for safety-critical applications. Furthermore, we provide tighter probabilistic error bounds that are sample-based. The overall computational scheme is put in relationship with alternative approximation algorithms in the literature, and finally its performance is practically assessed over a benchmark case study.

eess.SY↗
arXiv2015

Quantitative Approximation of the Probability Distribution of a Markov Process by Formal Abstractions

The goal of this work is to formally abstract a Markov process evolving in discrete time over a general state space as a finite-state Markov chain, with the objective of precisely approximating its state probability distribution in time, which allows for its approximate, faster computation by that of the Markov chain. The approach is based on formal abstractions and employs an arbitrary finite partition of the state space of the Markov process, and the computation of average transition probabilities between partition sets. The abstraction technique is formal, in that it comes with guarantees on the introduced approximation that depend on the diameters of the partitions: as such, they can be tuned at will. Further in the case of Markov processes with unbounded state spaces, a procedure for precisely truncating the state space within a compact set is provided, together with an error bound that depends on the asymptotic properties of the transition kernel of the original process. The overall abstraction algorithm, which practically hinges on piecewise constant approximations of the density functions of the Markov process, is extended to higher-order function approximations: these can lead to improved error bounds and associated lower computational requirements. The approach is practically tested to compute probabilistic invariance of the Markov process under study, and is compared to a known alternative approach from the literature.

cs.LO↗
arXiv2015

Dynamic Bayesian Networks as Formal Abstractions of Structured Stochastic Processes

We study the problem of finite-horizon probabilistic invariance for discrete-time Markov processes over general (uncountable) state spaces. We compute discrete-time, finite-state Markov chains as formal abstractions of general Markov processes. Our abstraction differs from existing approaches in two ways. First, we exploit the structure of the underlying Markov process to compute the abstraction separately for each dimension. Second, we employ dynamic Bayesian networks (DBN) as compact representations of the abstraction. In contrast, existing approaches represent and store the (exponentially large) Markov chain explicitly, which leads to heavy memory requirements limiting the application to models of dimension less than half, according to our experiments. We show how to construct a DBN abstraction of a Markov process satisfying an independence assumption on the driving process noise. We compute a guaranteed bound on the error in the abstraction w.r.t.\ the probabilistic invariance property; the dimension-dependent abstraction makes the error bounds more precise than existing approaches. Additionally, we show how factor graphs and the sum-product algorithm for DBNs can be used to solve the finite-horizon probabilistic invariance problem. Together, DBN-based representations and algorithms can be significantly more efficient than explicit representations of Markov chains for abstracting and model checking structured Markov processes.

eess.SY↗
arXiv2014

Characterization and computation of infinite horizon specifications over Markov processes

This work is devoted to the formal verification of specifications over general discrete-time Markov processes, with an emphasis on infinite-horizon properties. These properties, formulated in a modal logic known as PCTL, can be expressed through value functions defined over the state space of the process. The main goal is to understand how structural features of the model (primarily the presence of absorbing sets) influence the uniqueness of the solutions of corresponding Bellman equations. Furthermore, this contribution shows that the investigation of these structural features leads to new computational techniques to calculate the specifications of interest: the emphasis is to derive approximation techniques with associated explicit convergence rates and formal error bounds.

math.OC↗
arXiv2014

Quantitative model-checking of controlled discrete-time Markov processes

This paper focuses on optimizing probabilities of events of interest defined over general controlled discrete-time Markov processes. It is shown that the optimization over a wide class of $ω$-regular properties can be reduced to the solution of one of two fundamental problems: reachability and repeated reachability. We provide a comprehensive study of the former problem and an initial characterisation of the (much more involved) latter problem. A case study elucidates concepts and techniques.

math.PR↗
arXiv2014

Symbolic Models for Stochastic Switched Systems: A Discretization and a Discretization-Free Approach

Stochastic switched systems are a relevant class of stochastic hybrid systems with probabilistic evolution over a continuous domain and control-dependent discrete dynamics over a finite set of modes. In the past few years several different techniques have been developed to assist in the stability analysis of stochastic switched systems. However, more complex and challenging objectives related to the verification of and the controller synthesis for logic specifications have not been formally investigated for this class of systems as of yet. With logic specifications we mean properties expressed as formulae in linear temporal logic or as automata on infinite strings. This paper addresses these complex objectives by constructively deriving approximately equivalent (bisimilar) symbolic models of stochastic switched systems. More precisely, this paper provides two different symbolic abstraction techniques: one requires state space discretization, but the other one does not require any space discretization which can be potentially more efficient than the first one when dealing with higher dimensional stochastic switched systems. Both techniques provide finite symbolic models that are approximately bisimilar to stochastic switched systems under some stability assumptions on the concrete model. This allows formally synthesizing controllers (switching signals) that are valid for the concrete system over the finite symbolic model, by means of mature automata-theoretic techniques in the literature. The effectiveness of the results are illustrated by synthesizing switching signals enforcing logic specifications for two case studies including temperature control of a six-room building.

math.OC↗
arXiv2014

On the Optimal Solutions of the Infinite-Horizon Linear Sensor Scheduling Problem

This paper studies the infinite-horizon sensor scheduling problem for linear Gaussian processes with linear measurement functions. Several important properties of the optimal infinite-horizon schedules are derived. In particular, it is proved that under some mild conditions, both the optimal infinite-horizon average-per-stage cost and the corresponding optimal sensor schedules are independent of the covariance matrix of the initial state. It is also proved that the optimal estimation cost can be approximated arbitrarily closely by a periodic schedule with a finite period. Moreover, it is shown that the sequence of the average-per-stage costs of the optimal schedule must converge. These theoretical results provide valuable insights into the design and analysis of various infinite-horizon sensor scheduling algorithms.

math.OC↗
arXiv2013

Computation of ruin probabilities for general discrete-time Markov models

We study the ruin problem over a risk process described by a discrete-time Markov model. In contrast to previous studies that focused on the asymptotic behaviour of ruin probabilities for large values of the initial capital, we provide a new technique to compute the quantity of interest for any initial value, and with any given precision. Rather than focusing on a particular model for risk processes, we give a general characterization of the ruin probability by providing corresponding recursions and fixpoint equations. Since such equations for the ruin probability are ill-posed in the sense that they do not allow for unique solutions, we approximate the ruin probability by a two-barrier ruin probability, for which fixpoint equations are well-posed. We also show how good the introduced approximation is by providing an explicit bound on the error and by characterizing the cases when the error converges to zero. The presented technique and results are supported by two computational examples over models known in the literature, one of which is extremely heavy-tailed.

q-fin.RM↗
arXiv2013

Aggregation and Control of Populations of Thermostatically Controlled Loads by Formal Abstractions

This work discusses a two-step procedure, based on formal abstractions, to generate a finite-space stochastic dynamical model as an aggregation of the continuous temperature dynamics of a homogeneous population of Thermostatically Controlled Loads (TCL). The temperature of a single TCL is described by a stochastic difference equation and the TCL status (ON, OFF) by a deterministic switching mechanism. The procedure is formal as it allows the exact quantification of the error introduced by the abstraction -- as such it builds and improves on a known, earlier approximation technique in the literature. Further, the contribution discusses the extension to the case of a heterogeneous population of TCL by means of two approaches resulting in the notion of approximate abstractions. It moreover investigates the problem of global (population-level) regulation and load balancing for the case of TCL that are dependent on a control input. The procedure is tested on a case study and benchmarked against the mentioned alternative approach in the literature.

eess.SY↗
arXiv2013

Symbolic control of stochastic systems via approximately bisimilar finite abstractions

Symbolic approaches to the control design over complex systems employ the construction of finite-state models that are related to the original control systems, then use techniques from finite-state synthesis to compute controllers satisfying specifications given in a temporal logic, and finally translate the synthesized schemes back as controllers for the concrete complex systems. Such approaches have been successfully developed and implemented for the synthesis of controllers over non-probabilistic control systems. In this paper, we extend the technique to probabilistic control systems modeled by controlled stochastic differential equations. We show that for every stochastic control system satisfying a probabilistic variant of incremental input-to-state stability, and for every given precision $\varepsilon>0$, a finite-state transition system can be constructed, which is $\varepsilon$-approximately bisimilar (in the sense of moments) to the original stochastic control system. Moreover, we provide results relating stochastic control systems to their corresponding finite-state transition systems in terms of probabilistic bisimulation relations known in the literature. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the construction by synthesizing controllers for stochastic control systems over rich specifications expressed in linear temporal logic. The discussed technique enables a new, automated, correct-by-construction controller synthesis approach for stochastic control systems, which are common mathematical models employed in many safety critical systems subject to structured uncertainty and are thus relevant for cyber-physical applications.

math.OC↗