arXiv subjects

Alessandro Betti

Publications and source records attributed to Alessandro Betti.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2021

An Optimal Control Approach to Learning in SIDARTHE Epidemic model

The COVID-19 outbreak has stimulated the interest in the proposal of novel epidemiological models to predict the course of the epidemic so as to help planning effective control strategies. In particular, in order to properly interpret the available data, it has become clear that one must go beyond most classic epidemiological models and consider models that, like the recently proposed SIDARTHE, offer a richer description of the stages of infection. The problem of learning the parameters of these models is of crucial importance especially when assuming that they are time-variant, which further enriches their effectiveness. In this paper we propose a general approach for learning time-variant parameters of dynamic compartmental models from epidemic data. We formulate the problem in terms of a functional risk that depends on the learning variables through the solutions of a dynamic system. The resulting variational problem is then solved by using a gradient flow on a suitable, regularized functional. We forecast the epidemic evolution in Italy and France. Results indicate that the model provides reliable and challenging predictions over all available data as well as the fundamental role of the chosen strategy on the time-variant parameters.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Developing Constrained Neural Units Over Time

In this paper we present a foundational study on a constrained method that defines learning problems with Neural Networks in the context of the principle of least cognitive action, which very much resembles the principle of least action in mechanics. Starting from a general approach to enforce constraints into the dynamical laws of learning, this work focuses on an alternative way of defining Neural Networks, that is different from the majority of existing approaches. In particular, the structure of the neural architecture is defined by means of a special class of constraints that are extended also to the interaction with data, leading to "architectural" and "input-related" constraints, respectively. The proposed theory is cast into the time domain, in which data are presented to the network in an ordered manner, that makes this study an important step toward alternative ways of processing continuous streams of data with Neural Networks. The connection with the classic Backpropagation-based update rule of the weights of networks is discussed, showing that there are conditions under which our approach degenerates to Backpropagation. Moreover, the theory is experimentally evaluated on a simple problem that allows us to deeply study several aspects of the theory itself and to show the soundness of the model.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

A Machine Learning Model for Long-Term Power Generation Forecasting at Bidding Zone Level

The increasing penetration level of energy generation from renewable sources is demanding for more accurate and reliable forecasting tools to support classic power grid operations (e.g., unit commitment, electricity market clearing or maintenance planning). For this purpose, many physical models have been employed, and more recently many statistical or machine learning algorithms, and data-driven methods in general, are becoming subject of intense research. While generally the power research community focuses on power forecasting at the level of single plants, in a short future horizon of time, in this time we are interested in aggregated macro-area power generation (i.e., in a territory of size greater than 100000 km^2) with a future horizon of interest up to 15 days ahead. Real data are used to validate the proposed forecasting methodology on a test set of several months.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Wave Propagation of Visual Stimuli in Focus of Attention

Fast reactions to changes in the surrounding visual environment require efficient attention mechanisms to reallocate computational resources to most relevant locations in the visual field. While current computational models keep improving their predictive ability thanks to the increasing availability of data, they still struggle approximating the effectiveness and efficiency exhibited by foveated animals. In this paper, we present a biologically-plausible computational model of focus of attention that exhibits spatiotemporal locality and that is very well-suited for parallel and distributed implementations. Attention emerges as a wave propagation process originated by visual stimuli corresponding to details and motion information. The resulting field obeys the principle of "inhibition of return" so as not to get stuck in potential holes. An accurate experimentation of the model shows that it achieves top level performance in scanpath prediction tasks. This can easily be understood at the light of a theoretical result that we establish in the paper, where we prove that as the velocity of wave propagation goes to infinity, the proposed model reduces to recently proposed state of the art gravitational models of focus of attention.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2020

Backprop Diffusion is Biologically Plausible

The Backpropagation algorithm relies on the abstraction of using a neural model that gets rid of the notion of time, since the input is mapped instantaneously to the output. In this paper, we claim that this abstraction of ignoring time, along with the abrupt input changes that occur when feeding the training set, are in fact the reasons why, in some papers, Backprop biological plausibility is regarded as an arguable issue. We show that as soon as a deep feedforward network operates with neurons with time-delayed response, the backprop weight update turns out to be the basic equation of a biologically plausible diffusion process based on forward-backward waves. We also show that such a process very well approximates the gradient for inputs that are not too fast with respect to the depth of the network. These remarks somewhat disclose the diffusion process behind the backprop equation and leads us to interpret the corresponding algorithm as a degeneration of a more general diffusion process that takes place also in neural networks with cyclic connections.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Focus of Attention Improves Information Transfer in Visual Features

Unsupervised learning from continuous visual streams is a challenging problem that cannot be naturally and efficiently managed in the classic batch-mode setting of computation. The information stream must be carefully processed accordingly to an appropriate spatio-temporal distribution of the visual data, while most approaches of learning commonly assume uniform probability density. In this paper we focus on unsupervised learning for transferring visual information in a truly online setting by using a computational model that is inspired to the principle of least action in physics. The maximization of the mutual information is carried out by a temporal process which yields online estimation of the entropy terms. The model, which is based on second-order differential equations, maximizes the information transfer from the input to a discrete space of symbols related to the visual features of the input, whose computation is supported by hidden neurons. In order to better structure the input probability distribution, we use a human-like focus of attention model that, coherently with the information maximization model, is also based on second-order differential equations. We provide experimental results to support the theory by showing that the spatio-temporal filtering induced by the focus of attention allows the system to globally transfer more information from the input stream over the focused areas and, in some contexts, over the whole frames with respect to the unfiltered case that yields uniform probability distributions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Learning Visual Features Under Motion Invariance

Humans are continuously exposed to a stream of visual data with a natural temporal structure. However, most successful computer vision algorithms work at image level, completely discarding the precious information carried by motion. In this paper, we claim that processing visual streams naturally leads to formulate the motion invariance principle, which enables the construction of a new theory of learning that originates from variational principles, just like in physics. Such principled approach is well suited for a discussion on a number of interesting questions that arise in vision, and it offers a well-posed computational scheme for the discovery of convolutional filters over the retina. Differently from traditional convolutional networks, which need massive supervision, the proposed theory offers a truly new scenario for the unsupervised processing of video signals, where features are extracted in a multi-layer architecture with motion invariance. While the theory enables the implementation of novel computer vision systems, it also sheds light on the role of information-based principles to drive possible biological solutions.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2020

Local Propagation in Constraint-based Neural Network

In this paper we study a constraint-based representation of neural network architectures. We cast the learning problem in the Lagrangian framework and we investigate a simple optimization procedure that is well suited to fulfil the so-called architectural constraints, learning from the available supervisions. The computational structure of the proposed Local Propagation (LP) algorithm is based on the search for saddle points in the adjoint space composed of weights, neural outputs, and Lagrange multipliers. All the updates of the model variables are locally performed, so that LP is fully parallelizable over the neural units, circumventing the classic problem of gradient vanishing in deep networks. The implementation of popular neural models is described in the context of LP, together with those conditions that trace a natural connection with Backpropagation. We also investigate the setting in which we tolerate bounded violations of the architectural constraints, and we provide experimental evidence that LP is a feasible approach to train shallow and deep networks, opening the road to further investigations on more complex architectures, easily describable by constraints.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Real-Time target detection in maritime scenarios based on YOLOv3 model

In this work a novel ships dataset is proposed consisting of more than 56k images of marine vessels collected by means of web-scraping and including 12 ship categories. A YOLOv3 single-stage detector based on Keras API is built on top of this dataset. Current results on four categories (cargo ship, naval ship, oil ship and tug ship) show Average Precision up to 96% for Intersection over Union (IoU) of 0.5 and satisfactory detection performances up to IoU of 0.8. A Data Analytics GUI service based on QT framework and Darknet-53 engine is also implemented in order to simplify the deployment process and analyse massive amount of images even for people without Data Science expertise.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2019

Condition monitoring and early diagnostics methodologies for hydropower plants

Hydropower plants are one of the most convenient option for power generation, as they generate energy exploiting a renewable source, they have relatively low operating and maintenance costs, and they may be used to provide ancillary services, exploiting the large reservoirs of available water. The recent advances in Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) and in machine learning methodologies are seen as fundamental enablers to upgrade and modernize the current operation of most hydropower plants, in terms of condition monitoring, early diagnostics and eventually predictive maintenance. While very few works, or running technologies, have been documented so far for the hydro case, in this paper we propose a novel Key Performance Indicator (KPI) that we have recently developed and tested on operating hydropower plants. In particular, we show that after more than one year of operation it has been able to identify several faults, and to support the operation and maintenance tasks of plant operators. Also, we show that the proposed KPI outperforms conventional multivariable process control charts, like the Hotelling $t_2$ index.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2019

A Scalable Predictive Maintenance Model for Detecting Wind Turbine Component Failures Based on SCADA Data

In this work, a novel predictive maintenance system is presented and applied to the main components of wind turbines. The proposed model is based on machine learning and statistical process control tools applied to SCADA (Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition) data of critical components. The test campaign was divided into two stages: a first two years long offline test, and a second one year long real-time test. The offline test used historical faults from six wind farms located in Italy and Romania, corresponding to a total of 150 wind turbines and an overall installed nominal power of 283 MW. The results demonstrate outstanding capabilities of anomaly prediction up to 2 months before device unscheduled downtime. Furthermore, the real-time 12-months test confirms the ability of the proposed system to detect several anomalies, therefore allowing the operators to identify the root causes, and to schedule maintenance actions before reaching a catastrophic stage.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

On the Role of Time in Learning

By and large the process of learning concepts that are embedded in time is regarded as quite a mature research topic. Hidden Markov models, recurrent neural networks are, amongst others, successful approaches to learning from temporal data. In this paper, we claim that the dominant approach minimizing appropriate risk functions defined over time by classic stochastic gradient might miss the deep interpretation of time given in other fields like physics. We show that a recent reformulation of learning according to the principle of Least Cognitive Action is better suited whenever time is involved in learning. The principle gives rise to a learning process that is driven by differential equations, that can somehow descrive the process within the same framework as other laws of nature.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Spatiotemporal Local Propagation

This paper proposes an in-depth re-thinking of neural computation that parallels apparently unrelated laws of physics, that are formulated in the variational framework of the least action principle. The theory holds for neural networks that are also based on any digraph, and the resulting computational scheme exhibits the intriguing property of being truly biologically plausible. The scheme, which is referred to as SpatioTemporal Local Propagation (STLP), is local in both space and time. Space locality comes from the expression of the network connections by an appropriate Lagrangian term, so as the corresponding computational scheme does not need the backpropagation (BP) of the error, while temporal locality is the outcome of the variational formulation of the problem. Overall, in addition to conquering the often invoked biological plausibility missed by BP, the locality in both space and time that arises from the proposed theory can neither be exhibited by Backpropagation Through Time (BPTT) nor by Real-Time Recurrent Learning (RTRL).

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Least Action Principles and Well-Posed Learning Problems

Machine Learning algorithms are typically regarded as appropriate optimization schemes for minimizing risk functions that are constructed on the training set, which conveys statistical flavor to the corresponding learning problem. When the focus is shifted on perception, which is inherently interwound with time, recent alternative formulations of learning have been proposed that rely on the principle of Least Cognitive Action, which very much reminds us of the Least Action Principle in mechanics. In this paper, we discuss different forms of the cognitive action and show the well-posedness of learning. In particular, unlike the special case of the action in mechanics, where the stationarity is typically gained on saddle points, we prove the existence of the minimum of a special form of cognitive action, which yields forth-order differential equations of learning. We also briefly discuss the dissipative behavior of these equations that turns out to characterize the process of learning.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Day-Ahead Hourly Forecasting of Power Generation from Photovoltaic Plants

The ability to accurately forecast power generation from renewable sources is nowadays recognised as a fundamental skill to improve the operation of power systems. Despite the general interest of the power community in this topic, it is not always simple to compare different forecasting methodologies, and infer the impact of single components in providing accurate predictions. In this paper we extensively compare simple forecasting methodologies with more sophisticated ones over 32 photovoltaic plants of different size and technology over a whole year. Also, we try to evaluate the impact of weather conditions and weather forecasts on the prediction of PV power generation.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Predictive Maintenance in Photovoltaic Plants with a Big Data Approach

This paper presents a novel and flexible solution for fault prediction based on data collected from SCADA system. Fault prediction is offered at two different levels based on a data-driven approach: (a) generic fault/status prediction and (b) specific fault class prediction, implemented by means of two different machine learning based modules built on an unsupervised clustering algorithm and a Pattern Recognition Neural Network, respectively. Model has been assessed on a park of six photovoltaic (PV) plants up to 10 MW and on more than one hundred inverter modules of three different technology brands. The results indicate that the proposed method is effective in (a) predicting incipient generic faults up to 7 days in advance with sensitivity up to 95% and (b) anticipating damage of specific fault classes with times ranging from few hours up to 7 days. The model is easily deployable for on-line monitoring of anomalies on new PV plants and technologies, requiring only the availability of historical SCADA and fault data, fault taxonomy and inverter electrical datasheet. Keywords: Data Mining, Fault Prediction, Inverter Module, Key Performance Indicator, Lost Production

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

Learning Neuron Non-Linearities with Kernel-Based Deep Neural Networks

The effectiveness of deep neural architectures has been widely supported in terms of both experimental and foundational principles. There is also clear evidence that the activation function (e.g. the rectifier and the LSTM units) plays a crucial role in the complexity of learning. Based on this remark, this paper discusses an optimal selection of the neuron non-linearity in a functional framework that is inspired from classic regularization arguments. It is shown that the best activation function is represented by a kernel expansion in the training set, that can be effectively approximated over an opportune set of points modeling 1-D clusters. The idea can be naturally extended to recurrent networks, where the expressiveness of kernel-based activation functions turns out to be a crucial ingredient to capture long-term dependencies. We give experimental evidence of this property by a set of challenging experiments, where we compare the results with neural architectures based on state of the art LSTM cells.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

Cognitive Action Laws: The Case of Visual Features

This paper proposes a theory for understanding perceptual learning processes within the general framework of laws of nature. Neural networks are regarded as systems whose connections are Lagrangian variables, namely functions depending on time. They are used to minimize the cognitive action, an appropriate functional index that measures the agent interactions with the environment. The cognitive action contains a potential and a kinetic term that nicely resemble the classic formulation of regularization in machine learning. A special choice of the functional index, which leads to forth-order differential equations---Cognitive Action Laws (CAL)---exhibits a structure that mirrors classic formulation of machine learning. In particular, unlike the action of mechanics, the stationarity condition corresponds with the global minimum. Moreover, it is proven that typical asymptotic learning conditions on the weights can coexist with the initialization provided that the system dynamics is driven under a policy referred to as information overloading control. Finally, the theory is experimented for the problem of feature extraction in computer vision.

cs.CV↗