Alessandro Giaconia | Searcharxiv

arXiv2026

Agent-Supported Foresight for AI Systemic Risks: AI Agents for Breadth, Experts for Judgment

AI impact assessments often stress near-term risks because human judgment degrades over longer horizons, exemplifying the Collingridge dilemma: foresight is most needed when knowledge is scarcest. To address long-term systemic risks, we introduce a scalable approach that simulates in-silico agents using the strategic foresight method of the Futures Wheel. We applied it to four AI uses spanning Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs): Chatbot Companion (TRL 9, mature), AI Toy (TRL 7, medium), Griefbot (TRL 5, low), and Death App (TRL 2, conceptual). Across 30 agent runs per use, agents produced 86-110 consequences, condensed into 27-47 unique risks. To benchmark the agent outputs against human perspectives, we collected evaluations from 290 domain experts and 7 leaders, and conducted Futures Wheel sessions with 42 experts and 42 laypeople. Agents generated many systemic consequences across runs. Compared with these outputs, experts identified fewer risks, typically less systemic but judged more likely, whereas laypeople surfaced more emotionally salient concerns that were generally less systemic. We propose a hybrid foresight workflow, wherein agents broaden systemic coverage, and humans provide contextual grounding. Our dataset is available at: https://social-dynamics.net/ai-risks/foresight.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2025

Is Crunching Public Data the Right Approach to Detect BGP Hijacks?

The Border Gateway Protocol (BGP) remains a fragile pillar of Internet routing. BGP hijacks still occurr daily. While full deployment of Route Origin Validation (ROV) is ongoing, attackers have already adapted, launching post-ROV attacks such as forged-origin hijacks. To detect these, recent approaches like DFOH [Holterbach et al., USENIX NSDI '24] and BEAM [Chen et al., USENIX Security '24] apply machine learning (ML) to analyze data from globally distributed BGP monitors, assuming anomalies will stand out against historical patterns. However, this assumption overlooks a key threat: BGP monitors themselves can be misled by adversaries injecting bogus routes. This paper shows that state-of-the-art hijack detection systems like DFOH and BEAM are vulnerable to data poisoning. Using large-scale BGP simulations, we show that attackers can evade detection with just a handful of crafted announcements beyond the actual hijack. These announcements are indeed sufficient to corrupt the knowledge base used by ML-based defenses and distort the metrics they rely on. Our results highlight a worrying weakness of relying solely on public BGP data.

cs.CR↗