arXiv subjects

Alessandro Sozzetti

Publications and source records attributed to Alessandro Sozzetti.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Understanding eccentric temperate giants: an in-depth study of the architecture and stellar obliquity of the TOI-2134 system

We revisit the TOI-2134 planetary system with three new high-cadence TESS sectors and 98 more spectra. This new analysis confirms the two orbiting planets by simultaneously modelling a total of eight sectors of corrected TESS photometry and 280 HARPS-N and SOPHIE radial velocities: an inner mini-Neptune in a near-circular $9.229198\pm0.000003$ days orbit, and an outer temperate sub-Saturn orbiting with a $95.852840\pm0.000042$ days period and eccentricity of $0.31\pm0.01$. The masses and radii of the planets were computed to be $9.37\pm0.54$ Me and $2.735\pm0.068$ Re for planet b, and $58.3\pm1.9$ Me and $7.35\pm0.18$ Re for planet c. The new data not only improves the detection significance and precisions on the planetary orbits, but also breaks the original multimodality in the eccentricity solution for the outer planet. We also detect a long-term trend in the radial velocity data, which we attribute to a stellar magnetic cycle. We investigate the spin-orbit alignment of the system via observations of the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect for TOI-2134~b with EXPRES and TOI-2134~c with PARAS-2. No RM effect was detected for planet b, but we find a 4.7$\sigma$ detection of a $59\pm31^{\circ}$ obliquity for planet c. Finally, we examine the architecture of the system, assess its completeness, investigate the planetary interior, and their suitability for follow-up atmospheric analysis.

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arXiv2026

A distant brown dwarf coplanar to a warm Jupiter and a hot super-Earth

In transiting planetary systems, in which planetary sizes are accurately determined from transit observations, the presence of transit-timing variations (TTVs), especially when combined with radial velocity (RV) data, provides powerful constraints on masses and orbital eccentricities. Together, these measurements offer crucial insights into system architecture, formation mechanisms and dynamical evolution. We present long-term RV and transit/TTV monitoring of the relatively young star (age approximately 1 Gyr) TOI-201, revealing an exceptional multi-planet system composed of a hot super-Earth (SE) size planet transiting every 5.8 days, a warm Jupiter (WJ) on a 53-day orbit and an eccentric (e = 0.62) low-mass brown dwarf (BD) on an approximately 8-year orbit, with an estimated mass of about 16 Jupiter masses. The BD is the longest-period transiting substellar object ever characterized by means of RVs and the only one known to be coplanar with inner planets. The architecture of this system suggests that the SE was formed isolated and in the innermost region of the gaseous disk. On the other hand, the orbital configuration of the outer companions suggests a nearly in situ formation of both objects, with the WJ forming in a dense inner disk. Alternatively, the BD might have formed farther out and migrated inward, while increasing its eccentricity owing to interactions with the disk.

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arXiv2026

Magnetic Activity Cycles and Rotation in Planet-hosting and Non-hosting Solar-type Stars

We analyze periodicities in radial velocity (RV) measurements and magnetic activity indicators (S-index and BIS) for 767 Gaia RV standard stars to distinguish between stellar activity and planetary signals. Significant RV periods were detected in only 359 of these stars. Rotation and magnetic cycle periods are identified through iterative periodogram analysis. Among stars with confirmed planets, $28.2\%$ exhibit RV signals that coincide with activity indicators, compared to $21.3\%$ among stars without planets; however, statistical tests show this difference is not statistically significant. Several RV signals previously attributed to planets, such as those in HIP7240, HIP28460, and HIP48331, are instead likely caused by stellar activity, emphasising the importance of using multiple diagnostics to assess RV variability. We report rotation periods in 125 stars, including 30 new estimates, and detect magnetic activity cycles in 127 stars, 95 of which are new. We further investigate the relationship between rotation and magnetic cycle periods in the context of stellar dynamo theory. The full sample reveals a continuous distribution in the $P_{\rm rot}/P_{\rm cyc}$, Rossby number diagram, lacking the classical division into active and inactive branches and instead showing a negative slope, in contrast to some earlier studies. Interestingly, stars with planetary companions exhibit a steeper trend (slope of $-1.049 \pm 0.078$) compared to non-hosts ($-0.654 \pm 0.056$), suggesting that the presence of planets may subtly influence the host star's magnetic behaviour.

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arXiv2026

Constraining Small Planet Compositions for Future Missions

Accurate mass and radius measurements of small transiting exoplanets are essential for probing their compositions, formation histories, and potential habitability. We present a uniform analysis of six planetary systems (each hosting at least one small transiting planet): K2-79, K2-106, K2-111, K2-222, K2-263, and TOI-1634. Our study combines new CHEOPS transit observations with archival photometry from K2, TESS, and ground-based facilities, alongside new and archival radial velocity data from HARPS-N, HIRES, ESPRESSO, and others. For each system, we perform joint transit and RV modelling, achieving typical precisions better than 15% and 5% for mass and radius, respectively, and thus enabling precise bulk density determinations. These reveal a range of compositions, including rocky planets near the radius valley (e.g. K2-106 b, TOI-1634 b), intermediate-density planets requiring steam-rich or mixed volatile envelopes (e.g. K2-111 b, K2-263 b), and low-density regimes, consistent with gas dwarfs or water-worlds (e.g. K2-79 b, K2-222 b). Several systems show evidence of additional companions detectable via RVs but not seen in transit. The results highlight the value of coordinated CHEOPS and HARPS-N observations in delivering some of the most precise bulk densities for small planets to date and support the preparation for future atmospheric characterisation missions.

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arXiv2026

The ESPRESSO Redshift Drift Experiment III -- The Third Epoch of QSO J052915.80-435152.0

The Sandage-Loeb test probes cosmic expansion directly by measuring the redshift drift in quasar absorption features in a model-independent way. In this series of papers, we have launched an observational campaign to assess whether current instrumentation is capable of measuring this effect and what systematic effects might interfere with a detection. We report the observations and analysis of the third epoch of ESPRESSO observations of the bright quasar J052915.80-435152.0 (SB2, z=3.962), extending the temporal baseline to $\sim2$ years, and providing the tightest constraints on the redshift drift in the series so far. We acquired 9.5 hours of ESPRESSO observations, complementing the 12 hours presented in the first paper of the series, with one year of separation from the second epoch. The complete dataset was analysed and compared to spline-based Lyman-$\alpha$ forest models calibrated on simulations, to measure the presence of any velocity drift among the spectra. The measurement was carried out with two independent methods. Both approaches give a consistent null result, $\dot{v} = -3.5 \pm 3.6 ~{\rm m s^{-1} yr^{-1}}$ (or $\dot{z} = (-5.3\pm5.6)\times 10^{-8}~{\rm yr^{-1}}$ in redshift space), in agreement with $\Lambda$CDM expectations, systematic effects remain subdominant at the present level of noise. By extrapolating the results from the observed sightline to the complete QUBRICS Golden Sample, we show that ESPRESSO alone could detect the signal on century timescales, while a joint ESPRESSO+ANDES programme would reach first detection before 2080. A future analysis of the other quasars of the QUBRICS Golden Sample is required to improve this estimate. We show that the program would greatly benefit from a complementary effort with radio facilities targeting low-z HI 21 cm absorption lines. Such synergy could reduce the experiments' timeline by up to $\sim10$ years.

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arXiv2026

Identifying Exoplanets with Deep Learning VI. Enhancing neural network mitigation of stellar activity RV signals with additional metrics

The measurement of exoplanet masses using the radial velocity (RV) technique is currently limited by stellar activity, which introduces quasiperiodic variability signals that must be modeled and removed to enhance the sensitivity of the RV measurements to exoplanet signals. Neural networks have previously been demonstrated effective in modeling stellar activity signals in HARPS-N solar data using white light cross correlation functions (CCFs). Building on this work, we train a neural network on six years of HARPS-N solar data with additional parameters commonly associated to stellar activity, including chromatic CCFs, line shape metrics, spectral activity indicators, total solar irradiance (TSI) light curves from SORCE and TSIS-1, and TSI time derivatives. Our results show that parameters such as the bisector inverse slope and Na D equivalent widths do not significantly improve the neural network's ability to predict activity-induced RV variations compared to using the white light CCFs alone. However, parameters such as unsigned magnetic flux, the TSI and its time derivative, S-index, H-alpha equivalent width, chromatic CCFs, contrast, and full width at half maximum do improve the neural network's ability to predict RV scatter. Our new model reduces the RV scatter in a held-out test set from 147.1 cm/s to 93.3 cm/s, consistent with supergranulation noise levels reported in previous studies. These results suggest that finding effective tracers for (super)granulation will be critical to train models capable of further mitigating RV jitter, and necessary for characterizing Earth analogues.

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arXiv2025

System Analysis for a high-precision high-accuracy Astrometric instrument for HWO

This study presents a comprehensive system analysis for an instrument onboard the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO), designed for high-precision, high-accuracy differential astrometry, with the primary scientific goal to determine the mass of Earth-like planets around the nearest Sun-like stars. The analysis integrates the definition of the mission profile, the instrumental concept architecture, and an error budget that breaks down the key contributors to the sub-micro arcses precision required for a single measurement. A portion of this budget addresses photo-center estimation for both the target and calibration stars used in differential astrometry. Other major contributors are related to instrumental control of systematics in the reconstruction of differential angle measurements from pixel data (focal plane calibration) to on sky line of sight (telescope distortion calibration). End-of-mission astrometry requires multiple observations (typically 100) of the same target distributed over the mission lifetime. We assess the mission profile to estimate the fraction of survey time required for astrometric survey to achieve the science objective. The proposed architecture of the instrument concept is derived from error budget and mission constraints based on a large visible detector array composed of an assembly of multiple CMOS sensor chips resulting in an overall gigapixel focal plane. We evaluate the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) and propose a way forward reaching TRL 5 level for key technologies by the Mission Consolidation Review in 2029.

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arXiv2025

The HD 60779 Planetary System: A Transiting Sub-Neptune on a 30-day Orbit and a More Massive Outer World

We present the discovery of the planetary system orbiting the bright (V = 7.2), nearby (35 pc), Sun-like star HD 60779, which has a mass of 1.050 +/- 0.044 solar masses and a radius of 1.129 +/- 0.013 solar radii. We report two TESS transits and a subsequent CHEOPS transit of HD 60779 b, a sub-Neptune with a radius of 3.250 (+0.100 / -0.098) Earth radii on a 29.986175 (+0.000030 / -0.000033) day orbit. Additionally, 286 HARPS-N radial velocity measurements reveal the mass of planet b (14.7 +1.1 / -1.0 Earth masses) and the presence of an outer planet, HD 60779 c, with an orbital period of 104.25 (+0.30 / -0.29) days and a minimum mass (m sin i) of 27.7 +/- 1.6 Earth masses. Both planets' orbits are consistent with being circular, suggesting that they have a dynamically quiet history. The data are not sufficient to determine whether planet c transits. HD 60779's uniquely high systemic radial velocity (129.75 +/- 0.12 km/s) allows its Lyman-alpha emission to avoid absorption by the interstellar medium, making it a prime candidate for probing atmospheric escape from HD 60779 b. HD 60779 is also the third-brightest host of a sub-Neptune with orbital period greater than 25 days and with both mass and radius measured, distinguishing it in terms of accessibility to spectroscopic characterization.

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arXiv2025

Using Doppler Imaging to model stellar activity and search for planets around Sun-like stars

Doppler Imaging (DI) is a well-established technique to map a physical field at a stellar surface from a time series of high-resolution spectra. In this proof-of-concept study, we aim to show that traditional DI algorithms, originally designed for rapidly-rotating stars, have also the ability to model the activity of Sun-like stars, when observed with new-generation highly-stable spectrographs, and search for low-mass planets around them. We used DI to retrieve the relative brightness distribution at the surface of the Sun from radial velocity (RV) observations collected by HARPS-N between 2022 and 2024. The brightness maps obtained with DI have a typical angular resolution of about 36 degrees and are a good match to low-resolution disc-resolved Dopplergrams of the Sun at epochs when the absolute, disc-integrated RV exceeds ~2 m/s. The RV residuals after DI correction exhibit a dispersion of about 0.6 m/s, comparable with existing state-of-the-art activity correction techniques. Using planet injection-recovery tests, we also show that DI can be a powerful tool for blind planet searches, so long as the orbital period is larger than ~100days (i.e. 3 to 4 stellar rotation periods), and that it yields planetary mass estimates with an accuracy comparable to, for example, multi-dimensional Gaussian process regression. Finally, we highlight some limitations of traditional DI algorithms, which should be addressed to make DI a reliable alternative to state-of-the-art RV-based planet search techniques.

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arXiv2025

The mass of the exo-Venus Gliese 12 b, as revealed by HARPS-N, ESPRESSO, and CARMENES

Small temperate planets are prime targets for exoplanet studies due to their possible similarities with the rocky planets in the Solar System. M dwarfs are promising hosts since the planetary signals are within our current detection capabilities. Gliese 12 b is a Venus-sized temperate planet orbiting a quiet M dwarf. We present here the first precise mass measurement of this small exoplanet. We performed a detailed analysis using HARPS-N, ESPRESSO, and CARMENES radial velocities, along with new and archival \tess, \cheops, and MuSCAT2/3 photometry data. From fitting the available data, we find that the planet has a radius of $R_\mathrm{p} = 0.93\pm0.06 \,\mathrm{R_\oplus}$ and a mass of $M_\mathrm{p} = 0.95^{+0.29}_{-0.30} \,\mathrm{M_\oplus}$ (a $3.2\sigma$ measurement of the semi-amplitude $K=0.67\pm0.21\,\mathrm{m\,s^{-1}}$), and is on an orbit with a period of $12.761418^{+0.000060}_{-0.000055}\,\mathrm{d}$. A variety of techniques were utilised to attenuate stellar activity signals. Gliese 12 b has an equilibrium temperature of $T_\mathrm{eq}=317 \pm 8\,\mathrm{K}$, assuming an albedo of zero, and a density consistent with that of Earth and Venus ($\rho_\mathrm{p}=6.4\pm2.4\,\mathrm{g\,cm^{-3}}$). We find that Gliese 12 b has a predominantly rocky interior and simulations indicate that it is unlikely to have retained any of its primordial gaseous envelope. The bulk properties of Gliese 12 b place it in an extremely sparsely populated region of both mass--radius and density--$T_\mathrm{eq}$ parameter space, making it a prime target for follow-up observations, including Lyman-$\alpha$ studies.

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arXiv2025

The ESPRESSO Redshift Drift Experiment I -- High-resolution spectra of the Lyman-$α$ forest of QSO J052915.80-435152.0

The measurement of the temporal evolution in the redshift of distant objects, the redshift drift, is a probe of universal expansion and cosmology. We perform the first steps towards a measurement of such effect using the Lyman-$α$ forest in the spectra of bright quasars as a tracer of cosmological expansion. Our goal is to determine to which precision a velocity shift measurement can be carried out with the signal-to-noise (S/N) level currently available and whether this precision aligns with previous theoretical expectations. A precise assessment of the achievable measurement precision is fundamental for estimating the time required to carry out the whole project. We acquire 12 hours of ESPRESSO observations distributed over 0.875 years of the brightest quasar known, J052915.80-435152.0 (z=3.962), to obtain high-resolution spectra of the Lyman-$α$ forest, with median S/N of ~86 per 1 km/s pixel at the continuum. We divide the observations into two epochs and analyse them using both a pixel-by-pixel method and a model-based approach. This comparison allows us to estimate the velocity shift between the epochs, as well as the velocity precision that can be achieved at this S/N. The model-based method is calibrated using high-resolution simulations of the intergalactic medium, and it provides greater accuracy compared to the pixel-by-pixel approach. We measure a velocity drift of the Lyman-$α$ forest consistent with zero: $Δv = -1.25\pm 4.45 {\rm ms^{-1}}$, equivalent to a cosmological drift of $\dot{v}=-1.43\pm 5.09 {\rm ms^{-1}yr^{-1}}$ or $\dot{z}= (-2.19\pm7.77) \times 10^{-8}{\rm yr^{-1}}$. The measurement uncertainties are on par with the expected precision. We estimate that reaching a 99% detection of the cosmic drift requires a monitoring campaign of 5400 hours of integration time over 54 years with an ELT and an ANDES-like high-resolution spectrograph.

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arXiv2024

Precise and efficient modeling of stellar-activity-affected solar spectra using SOAP-GPU

One of the main obstacles in exoplanet detection when using the radial velocity (RV) technique is the presence of stellar activity signal induced by magnetic regions. In this context, a realistic simulated dataset that can provide photometry and spectroscopic outputs is needed for method development. The goal of this paper is to describe two realistic simulations of solar activity obtained from SOAP-GPU and to compare them with real data obtained from the HARPS-N solar telescope. We describe two different methods of modeling solar activity using SOAP-GPU. The first models the evolution of active regions based on the spot number as a function of time. The second method relies on the extraction of active regions from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) data. The simulated spectral time series generated with the first method shows a long-term RV behavior similar to that seen in the HARPS-N solar observations. The effect of stellar activity induced by stellar rotation is also well modeled with prominent periodicities at the stellar rotation period and its first harmonic. The comparison between the simulated spectral time series generated using SDO images and the HARPS-N solar spectra shows that SOAP-GPU can precisely model the RV time series of the Sun to a precision better than 0.9 m/s. By studying the width and depth variations of each spectral line in the HARPS-N solar and SOAP-GPU data, we find a strong correlation between the observation and the simulation for strong spectral lines, therefore supporting the modeling of the stellar activity effect at the spectral level. These simulated solar spectral time series serve as a useful test bed for evaluating spectral-level stellar activity mitigation techniques.

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arXiv2024

High Precision Astrometry Science in the Context of Space Mission Prospectives

Astrometry is one of the oldest branches of astronomy which measures the position, the proper motion and parallax of celestial objects. Following the Hipparcos and Gaia missions that have measured several billions of them using global astrometry, we propose to increase astrometry precision on pointed objects using differential astrometry in a large field in order to unravel rocky planets in habitable zones of stars in the Sun vicinity and investigate the nature of dark matter in galactic environments as recommended by the ESA Senior Committee in the Voyager 2050 prospective. Substantial technology developments in a number of critical areas is needed in order to reach the highest required precision of sub-micro-arcsecond. One of them is CMOS image sensors using the stitching technique to merge the multiple design structures on the wafer and produce array with very large number of pixels. Another one is to calibrate the pixel positions using projecting modulating interferometric laser fringes on the array. Finally, the distortion of the optical system can be monitored and compensated using reference stars as metrology sources. The final precision depends on the diameter and the field of view of the telescope that is used as well as the time spent on each target. We present here the science goals that can be achieved with such missions either within the framework of an ESA Medium-class mission or even in the NASA most challenging Habitable Worlds Observatory, a large space telescope recommended by the American Astronomy and Astrophysics prospective for the 2020s and designed specifically to search for signs of life on planets orbiting other stars.

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arXiv2024

Investigating stellar activity through eight years of Sun-as-a-star observations

Stellar magnetic activity induces both distortions and Doppler-shifts in the absorption line profiles of Sun-like stars. Those effects produce apparent radial velocity (RV) signals which greatly hamper the search for potentially habitable, Earth-like planets. In this work, we investigate these distortions in the Sun using cross-correlation functions (CCFs), derived from intensive monitoring with the high-precision spectrograph HARPS-N. We show that the RV signal arising from line-shape variations on time-scales associated with the solar rotation and activity cycle can be robustly extracted from the data, reducing the RV dispersion by half. Once these have been corrected, activity-induced Doppler-shifts remain, that are modulated at the solar rotation period, and that are most effectively modelled in the time domain, using Gaussian Processes (GPs). Planet signatures are still best retrieved with multi-dimensonal GPs, when activity is jointly modelled from the raw RVs and indicators of the line width or of the Ca II H and K emission. After GP modelling, the residual RVs exhibit a dispersion of 0.6-0.8 m/s, likely to be dominated by signals induced by super-granulation. Finally, we find that the statistical properties of the RVs evolve significantly over time, and that this evolution is primarily driven by sunspots, which control the smoothness of the signal. Such evolution, which reduces the sensitivity to long-period planet signatures, is no longer seen in the activity-induced Doppler-shifts, which is promising for long term RV monitoring surveys such as the Terra Hunting Experiment or the PLATO follow-up campaign.

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arXiv2024

Improving Earth-like planet detection in radial velocity using deep learning

Many novel methods have been proposed to mitigate stellar activity for exoplanet detection as the presence of stellar activity in radial velocity (RV) measurements is the current major limitation. Unlike traditional methods that model stellar activity in the RV domain, more methods are moving in the direction of disentangling stellar activity at the spectral level. The goal of this paper is to present a novel convolutional neural network-based algorithm that efficiently models stellar activity signals at the spectral level, enhancing the detection of Earth-like planets. We trained a convolutional neural network to build the correlation between the change in the spectral line profile and the corresponding RV, full width at half maximum (FWHM) and bisector span (BIS) values derived from the classical cross-correlation function. This algorithm has been tested on three intensively observed stars: Alpha Centauri B (HD128621), Tau ceti (HD10700), and the Sun. By injecting simulated planetary signals at the spectral level, we demonstrate that our machine learning algorithm can achieve, for HD128621 and HD10700, a detection threshold of 0.5 m/s in semi-amplitude for planets with periods ranging from 10 to 300 days. This threshold would correspond to the detection of a $\sim$4$\mathrm{M}_{\oplus}$ in the habitable zone of those stars. On the HARPS-N solar dataset, our algorithm is even more efficient at mitigating stellar activity signals and can reach a threshold of 0.2 m/s, which would correspond to a 2.2$\mathrm{M}_{\oplus}$ planet on the orbit of the Earth. To the best of our knowledge, it is the first time that such low detection thresholds are reported for the Sun, but also for other stars, and therefore this highlights the efficiency of our convolutional neural network-based algorithm at mitigating stellar activity in RV measurements.

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arXiv2024

Fundamental physics with ESPRESSO: a new determination of the D/H ratio towards PKS1937-101

Primordial abundances of light elements are sensitive to the physics of the early Universe and can directly constrain cosmological quantities, such as the baryon-to-photon ratio $η_{10}$, the baryon density and the number of neutrino families. Deuterium is especially suited for these studies: its primordial abundance is sensitive and monotonically dependent on $η_{10}$, allowing an independent measurement of the cosmic baryon density that can be compared, for instance, against the Planck satellite data. The primordial deuterium abundance can be measured in high $H_I$ column density absorption systems towards distant quasars. We report here a new measurement, based on high-resolution ESPRESSO data, of the primordial $D_I$ abundance of a system at redshift $z \sim 3.572$, towards PKS1937-101. Using only ESPRESSO data, we find a D/H ratio of $2.638\pm0.128 \times 10^{-5}$, while including the available UVES data improves the precision, leading to a ratio of $2.608 \pm 0.102 \times 10^{-5}$. The results of this analysis agree with those of the most precise existing measurements. We find that the relatively low column density of this system ($\log{N_{\rm H_I}/ {\rm cm}^{-2}}\sim18 $) introduces modelling uncertainties, which become the main contributor to the error budget.

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arXiv2024

Probing the small scale structure of the Inter-Galactic Medium with ESPRESSO: spectroscopy of the lensed QSO UM673

The gravitationally lensed quasar J014516.6-094517 at z=2.719 has been observed with the ESPRESSO instrument at the ESO VLT to obtain high-fidelity spectra of the two images A and B with a resolving power R=70000. At the redshifts under investigation (2.1 < z < 2.7), the Lyman forests along the two sightlines are separated by sub-kiloparsec physical distances and exhibit a strong correlation. We find that the two forests are indistinguishable at the present level of signal-to-noise ratio and do not show any global velocity shift, with the cross-correlation peaking at $Δv = 12 \pm 48$ m/s. The distribution of the difference in velocity of individual Lyman-$α$ features is compatible with a null average and a mean absolute deviation of 930 m/s. Significant differences in NHI column density are not detected, putting a limit to the RMS fluctuation in the baryon density on $\leq 1$ proper kpc scales of $Δρ/ ρ< 3$%. On the other hand, metal lines show significant differences both in velocity structure and in column density. A toy model shows that the difference in velocity of the metal features between the two sightlines is compatible with the the motions of the baryonic component associated to dark matter halos of typical mass $M\simeq 2\times 10^{10} M_\odot$, also compatible with the observed incidence of the metal systems. The present observations confirm the feasibility of the Sandage test of the cosmic redshift drift with high-fidelity spectroscopy of the Lyman forest of distant, bright quasars, but also provide an element of caution about the intrinsic noise associated to the usage of metal features for the same purpose.

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arXiv2023

The magnetically quiet solar surface dominates HARPS-N solar RVs during low activity

Using images from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager aboard the \textit{Solar Dynamics Observatory} (SDO/HMI), we extract the radial-velocity (RV) signal arising from the suppression of convective blue-shift and from bright faculae and dark sunspots transiting the rotating solar disc. We remove these rotationally modulated magnetic-activity contributions from simultaneous radial velocities observed by the HARPS-N solar feed to produce a radial-velocity time series arising from the magnetically quiet solar surface (the 'inactive-region radial velocities'). We find that the level of variability in the inactive-region radial velocities remains constant over the almost 7 year baseline and shows no correlation with well-known activity indicators. With an RMS of roughly 1 m/s, the inactive-region radial-velocity time series dominates the total RV variability budget during the decline of solar cycle 24. Finally, we compare the variability amplitude and timescale of the inactive-region radial velocities with simulations of supergranulation. We find consistency between the inactive-region radial-velocity and simulated time series, indicating that supergranulation is a significant contribution to the overall solar radial velocity variability, and may be the main source of variability towards solar minimum. This work highlights supergranulation as a key barrier to detecting Earth twins.

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