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Alessandro Vespignani

Publications and source records attributed to Alessandro Vespignani.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
arXiv2012

Beating the news using Social Media: the case study of American Idol

We present a contribution to the debate on the predictability of social events using big data analytics. We focus on the elimination of contestants in the American Idol TV shows as an example of a well defined electoral phenomenon that each week draws millions of votes in the USA. We provide evidence that Twitter activity during the time span defined by the TV show airing and the voting period following it, correlates with the contestants ranking and allows the anticipation of the voting outcome. Furthermore, the fraction of Tweets that contain geolocation information allows us to map the fanbase of each contestant, both within the US and abroad, showing that strong regional polarizations occur. Although American Idol voting is just a minimal and simplified version of complex societal phenomena such as political elections, this work shows that the volume of information available in online systems permits the real time gathering of quantitative indicators anticipating the future unfolding of opinion formation events.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2011

Towards a characterization of behavior-disease models

The last decade saw the advent of increasingly realistic epidemic models that leverage on the availability of highly detailed census and human mobility data. Data-driven models aim at a granularity down to the level of households or single individuals. However, relatively little systematic work has been done to provide coupled behavior-disease models able to close the feedback loop between behavioral changes triggered in the population by an individual's perception of the disease spread and the actual disease spread itself. While models lacking this coupling can be extremely successful in mild epidemics, they obviously will be of limited use in situations where social disruption or behavioral alterations are induced in the population by knowledge of the disease. Here we propose a characterization of a set of prototypical mechanisms for self-initiated social distancing induced by local and non-local prevalence-based information available to individuals in the population. We characterize the effects of these mechanisms in the framework of a compartmental scheme that enlarges the basic SIR model by considering separate behavioral classes within the population. The transition of individuals in/out of behavioral classes is coupled with the spreading of the disease and provides a rich phase space with multiple epidemic peaks and tipping points. The class of models presented here can be used in the case of data-driven computational approaches to analyze scenarios of social adaptation and behavioral change.

q-bio.PE↗
arXiv2011

Validation of Dunbar's number in Twitter conversations

Modern society's increasing dependency on online tools for both work and recreation opens up unique opportunities for the study of social interactions. A large survey of online exchanges or conversations on Twitter, collected across six months involving 1.7 million individuals is presented here. We test the theoretical cognitive limit on the number of stable social relationships known as Dunbar's number. We find that users can entertain a maximum of 100-200 stable relationships in support for Dunbar's prediction. The "economy of attention" is limited in the online world by cognitive and biological constraints as predicted by Dunbar's theory. Inspired by this empirical evidence we propose a simple dynamical mechanism, based on finite priority queuing and time resources, that reproduces the observed social behavior.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2011

Phase transitions in contagion processes mediated by recurrent mobility patterns

Human mobility and activity patterns mediate contagion on many levels, including the spatial spread of infectious diseases, diffusion of rumors, and emergence of consensus. These patterns however are often dominated by specific locations and recurrent flows and poorly modeled by the random diffusive dynamics generally used to study them. Here we develop a theoretical framework to analyze contagion within a network of locations where individuals recall their geographic origins. We find a phase transition between a regime in which the contagion affects a large fraction of the system and one in which only a small fraction is affected. This transition cannot be uncovered by continuous deterministic models due to the stochastic features of the contagion process and defines an invasion threshold that depends on mobility parameters, providing guidance for controlling contagion spread by constraining mobility processes. We recover the threshold behavior by analyzing diffusion processes mediated by real human commuting data.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2010

Characterizing and modeling the dynamics of online popularity

Online popularity has enormous impact on opinions, culture, policy, and profits. We provide a quantitative, large scale, temporal analysis of the dynamics of online content popularity in two massive model systems, the Wikipedia and an entire country's Web space. We find that the dynamics of popularity are characterized by bursts, displaying characteristic features of critical systems such as fat-tailed distributions of magnitude and inter-event time. We propose a minimal model combining the classic preferential popularity increase mechanism with the occurrence of random popularity shifts due to exogenous factors. The model recovers the critical features observed in the empirical analysis of the systems analyzed here, highlighting the key factors needed in the description of popularity dynamics.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2010

Modeling vaccination campaigns and the Fall/Winter 2009 activity of the new A(H1N1) influenza in the Northern Hemisphere

The unfolding of pandemic influenza A(H1N1) for Fall 2009 in the Northern Hemisphere is still uncertain. Plans for vaccination campaigns and vaccine trials are underway, with the first batches expected to be available early October. Several studies point to the possibility of an anticipated pandemic peak that could undermine the effectiveness of vaccination strategies. Here we use a structured global epidemic and mobility metapopulation model to assess the effectiveness of massive vaccination campaigns for the Fall/Winter 2009. Mitigation effects are explored depending on the interplay between the predicted pandemic evolution and the expected delivery of vaccines. The model is calibrated using recent estimates on the transmissibility of the new A(H1N1) influenza. Results show that if additional intervention strategies were not used to delay the time of pandemic peak, vaccination may not be able to considerably reduce the cumulative number of cases, even when the mass vaccination campaign is started as early as mid-October. Prioritized vaccination would be crucial in slowing down the pandemic evolution and reducing its burden.

q-bio.PE↗
arXiv2009

Diffusion of scientific credits and the ranking of scientists

Recently, the abundance of digital data enabled the implementation of graph based ranking algorithms that provide system level analysis for ranking publications and authors. Here we take advantage of the entire Physical Review publication archive (1893-2006) to construct authors' networks where weighted edges, as measured from opportunely normalized citation counts, define a proxy for the mechanism of scientific credit transfer. On this network we define a ranking method based on a diffusion algorithm that mimics the spreading of scientific credits on the network. We compare the results obtained with our algorithm with those obtained by local measures such as the citation count and provide a statistical analysis of the assignment of major career awards in the area of Physics. A web site where the algorithm is made available to perform customized rank analysis can be found at the address http://www.physauthorsrank.org

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2009

Seasonal transmission potential and activity peaks of the new influenza A(H1N1): a Monte Carlo likelihood analysis based on human mobility

On 11 June the World Health Organization officially raised the phase of pandemic alert (with regard to the new H1N1 influenza strain) to level 6. We use a global structured metapopulation model integrating mobility and transportation data worldwide in order to estimate the transmission potential and the relevant model parameters we used the data on the chronology of the 2009 novel influenza A(H1N1). The method is based on the maximum likelihood analysis of the arrival time distribution generated by the model in 12 countries seeded by Mexico by using 1M computationally simulated epidemics. An extended chronology including 93 countries worldwide seeded before 18 June was used to ascertain the seasonality effects. We found the best estimate R0 = 1.75 (95% CI 1.64 to 1.88) for the basic reproductive number. Correlation analysis allows the selection of the most probable seasonal behavior based on the observed pattern, leading to the identification of plausible scenarios for the future unfolding of the pandemic and the estimate of pandemic activity peaks in the different hemispheres. We provide estimates for the number of hospitalizations and the attack rate for the next wave as well as an extensive sensitivity analysis on the disease parameter values. We also studied the effect of systematic therapeutic use of antiviral drugs on the epidemic timeline. The analysis shows the potential for an early epidemic peak occurring in October/November in the Northern hemisphere, likely before large-scale vaccination campaigns could be carried out. We suggest that the planning of additional mitigation policies such as systematic antiviral treatments might be the key to delay the activity peak inorder to restore the effectiveness of the vaccination programs.

q-bio.PE↗
arXiv2009

Multiscale mobility networks and the large scale spreading of infectious diseases

Among the realistic ingredients to be considered in the computational modeling of infectious diseases, human mobility represents a crucial challenge both on the theoretical side and in view of the limited availability of empirical data. In order to study the interplay between small-scale commuting flows and long-range airline traffic in shaping the spatio-temporal pattern of a global epidemic we i) analyze mobility data from 29 countries around the world and find a gravity model able to provide a global description of commuting patterns up to 300 kms; ii) integrate in a worldwide structured metapopulation epidemic model a time-scale separation technique for evaluating the force of infection due to multiscale mobility processes in the disease dynamics. Commuting flows are found, on average, to be one order of magnitude larger than airline flows. However, their introduction into the worldwide model shows that the large scale pattern of the simulated epidemic exhibits only small variations with respect to the baseline case where only airline traffic is considered. The presence of short range mobility increases however the synchronization of subpopulations in close proximity and affects the epidemic behavior at the periphery of the airline transportation infrastructure. The present approach outlines the possibility for the definition of layered computational approaches where different modeling assumptions and granularities can be used consistently in a unifying multi-scale framework.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2009

Extracting the multiscale backbone of complex weighted networks

A large number of complex systems find a natural abstraction in the form of weighted networks whose nodes represent the elements of the system and the weighted edges identify the presence of an interaction and its relative strength. In recent years, the study of an increasing number of large scale networks has highlighted the statistical heterogeneity of their interaction pattern, with degree and weight distributions which vary over many orders of magnitude. These features, along with the large number of elements and links, make the extraction of the truly relevant connections forming the network's backbone a very challenging problem. More specifically, coarse-graining approaches and filtering techniques are at struggle with the multiscale nature of large scale systems. Here we define a filtering method that offers a practical procedure to extract the relevant connection backbone in complex multiscale networks, preserving the edges that represent statistical significant deviations with respect to a null model for the local assignment of weights to edges. An important aspect of the method is that it does not belittle small-scale interactions and operates at all scales defined by the weight distribution. We apply our method to real world network instances and compare the obtained results with alternative backbone extraction techniques.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2008

High resolution dynamical mapping of social interactions with active RFID

In this paper we present an experimental framework to gather data on face-to-face social interactions between individuals, with a high spatial and temporal resolution. We use active Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) devices that assess contacts with one another by exchanging low-power radio packets. When individuals wear the beacons as a badge, a persistent radio contact between the RFID devices can be used as a proxy for a social interaction between individuals. We present the results of a pilot study recently performed during a conference, and a subsequent preliminary data analysis, that provides an assessment of our method and highlights its versatility and applicability in many areas concerned with human dynamics.

cs.CY↗
arXiv2008

K-core decomposition of Internet graphs: hierarchies, self-similarity and measurement biases

We consider the $k$-core decomposition of network models and Internet graphs at the autonomous system (AS) level. The $k$-core analysis allows to characterize networks beyond the degree distribution and uncover structural properties and hierarchies due to the specific architecture of the system. We compare the $k$-core structure obtained for AS graphs with those of several network models and discuss the differences and similarities with the real Internet architecture. The presence of biases and the incompleteness of the real maps are discussed and their effect on the $k$-core analysis is assessed with numerical experiments simulating biased exploration on a wide range of network models. We find that the $k$-core analysis provides an interesting characterization of the fluctuations and incompleteness of maps as well as information helping to discriminate the original underlying structure.

cs.NI↗
arXiv2008

Invasion threshold in heterogeneous metapopulation networks

We study the dynamics of epidemic and reaction-diffusion processes in metapopulation models with heterogeneous connectivity pattern. In SIR-like processes, along with the standard local epidemic threshold, the system exhibits a global invasion threshold. We provide an explicit expression of the threshold that sets a critical value of the diffusion/mobility rate below which the epidemic is not able to spread to a macroscopic fraction of subpopulations. The invasion threshold is found to be affected by the topological fluctuations of the metapopulation network. The presented results provide a general framework for the understanding of the effect of travel restrictions in epidemic containment.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2008

Predictability and epidemic pathways in global outbreaks of infectious diseases: the SARS case study

Background: The global spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic has clearly shown the importance of considering the long-range transportation networks in the understanding of emerging diseases outbreaks. The introduction of extensive transportation data sets is therefore an important step in order to develop epidemic models endowed with realism. Methods: We develop a general stochastic meta-population model that incorporates actual travel and census data among 3 100 urban areas in 220 countries. The model allows probabilistic predictions on the likelihood of country outbreaks and their magnitude. The level of predictability offered by the model can be quantitatively analyzed and related to the appearance of robust epidemic pathways that represent the most probable routes for the spread of the disease. Results: In order to assess the predictive power of the model, the case study of the global spread of SARS is considered. The disease parameter values and initial conditions used in the model are evaluated from empirical data for Hong Kong. The outbreak likelihood for specific countries is evaluated along with the emerging epidemic pathways. Simulation results are in agreement with the empirical data of the SARS worldwide epidemic. Conclusions: The presented computational approach shows that the integration of long-range mobility and demographic data provides epidemic models with a predictive power that can be consistently tested and theoretically motivated. This computational strategy can be therefore considered as a general tool in the analysis and forecast of the global spreading of emerging diseases and in the definition of containment policies aimed at reducing the effects of potentially catastrophic outbreaks.

q-bio.OT↗
arXiv2007

Epidemic modeling in metapopulation systems with heterogeneous coupling pattern: theory and simulations

The spatial structure of populations is a key element in the understanding of the large scale spreading of epidemics. Motivated by the recent empirical evidence on the heterogeneous properties of transportation and commuting patterns among urban areas, we present a thorough analysis of the behavior of infectious diseases in metapopulation models characterized by heterogeneous connectivity and mobility patterns. We derive the basic reaction-diffusion equation describing the metapopulation system at the mechanistic level and derive an early stage dynamics approximation for the subpopulation invasion dynamics. The analytical description uses degree block variables that allows us to take into account arbitrary degree distribution of the metapopulation network. We show that along with the usual single population epidemic threshold the metapopulation network exhibits a global threshold for the subpopulation invasion. We find an explicit analytic expression for the invasion threshold that determines the minimum number of individuals traveling among subpopulations in order to have the infection of a macroscopic number of subpopulations. The invasion threshold is a function of factors such as the basic reproductive number, the infectious period and the mobility process and it is found to decrease for increasing network heterogeneity. We provide extensive mechanistic numerical Monte Carlo simulations that recover the analytical finding in a wide range of metapopulation network connectivity patterns. The results can be useful in the understanding of recent data driven computational approaches to disease spreading in large transportation networks and the effect of containment measures such as travel restrictions.

q-bio.PE↗
arXiv2007

WiFi Epidemiology: Can Your Neighbors' Router Make Yours Sick?

In densely populated urban areas WiFi routers form a tightly interconnected proximity network that can be exploited as a substrate for the spreading of malware able to launch massive fraudulent attack and affect entire urban areas WiFi networks. In this paper we consider several scenarios for the deployment of malware that spreads solely over the wireless channel of major urban areas in the US. We develop an epidemiological model that takes into consideration prevalent security flaws on these routers. The spread of such a contagion is simulated on real-world data for geo-referenced wireless routers. We uncover a major weakness of WiFi networks in that most of the simulated scenarios show tens of thousands of routers infected in as little time as two weeks, with the majority of the infections occurring in the first 24 to 48 hours. We indicate possible containment and prevention measure to limit the eventual harm of such an attack.

cs.CR↗
arXiv2007

Patterns of dominant flows in the world trade web

The large-scale organization of the world economies is exhibiting increasingly levels of local heterogeneity and global interdependency. Understanding the relation between local and global features calls for analytical tools able to uncover the global emerging organization of the international trade network. Here we analyze the world network of bilateral trade imbalances and characterize its overall flux organization, unraveling local and global high-flux pathways that define the backbone of the trade system. We develop a general procedure capable to progressively filter out in a consistent and quantitative way the dominant trade channels. This procedure is completely general and can be applied to any weighted network to detect the underlying structure of transport flows. The trade fluxes properties of the world trade web determines a ranking of trade partnerships that highlights global interdependencies, providing information not accessible by simple local analysis. The present work provides new quantitative tools for a dynamical approach to the propagation of economic crises.

q-fin.GN↗