arXiv subjects

Alessandro Zocca

Publications and source records attributed to Alessandro Zocca.

44 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2018

Frequency violations from random disturbances: an MCMC approach

The frequency stability of power systems is increasingly challenged by various types of disturbances. In particular, the increasing penetration of renewable energy sources is increasing the variability of power generation and at the same time reducing system inertia against disturbances. In this paper we are particularly interested in understanding how rate of change of frequency (RoCoF) violations could arise from unusually large power disturbances. We devise a novel specialization, named ghost sampling, of the Metropolis-Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo method that is tailored to efficiently sample rare power disturbances leading to nodal frequency violations. Generating a representative random sample addresses important statistical questions such as "which generator is most likely to be disconnected due to a RoCoF violation?" or "what is the probability of having simultaneous RoCoF violations, given that a violation occurs?" Our method can perform conditional sampling from any joint distribution of power disturbances including, for instance, correlated and non-Gaussian disturbances, features which have both been recently shown to be significant in security analyses.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2017

Low-temperature behavior of the multicomponent Widom-Rowlison model on finite square lattices

We consider the multicomponent Widom-Rowlison with Metropolis dynamics, which describes the evolution of a particle system where $M$ different types of particles interact subject to certain hard-core constraints. Focusing on the scenario where the spatial structure is modeled by finite square lattices, we study the asymptotic behavior of this interacting particle system in the low-temperature regime, analyzing the tunneling times between its $M$ maximum-occupancy configurations, and the mixing time of the corresponding Markov chain. In particular, we develop a novel combinatorial method that, exploiting geometrical properties of the Widom-Rowlinson configurations on finite square lattices, leads to the identification of the timescale at which transitions between maximum-occupancy configurations occur and shows how this depends on the chosen boundary conditions and the square lattice dimensions.

math.PR↗

arXiv2016

Line failure probability bounds for power grids

We develop upper bounds for line failure probabilities in power grids, under the DC approximation and assuming Gaussian noise for the power injections. Our upper bounds are explicit, and lead to characterization of safe operational capacity regions that are convex and polyhedral, making our tools compatible with existing planning methods. Our probabilistic bounds are derived through the use of powerful concentration inequalities.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2016

Minimizing heat loss in DC networks using batteries

Electricity transmission networks dissipate a non-negligible fraction of the power they transport due to the heat loss in the transmission lines. In this work we explore how the transport of energy can be more efficient by adding to the network multiple batteries that can coordinate their operations. Such batteries can both charge using the current excess in the network or discharge to meet the network current demand. Either way, the presence of batteries in the network can be leveraged to mitigate the intrinsic uncertainty in the power generation and demand and, hence, transport the energy more efficiently through the network. We consider a resistive DC network with stochastic external current injections or consumptions and show how the expected total heat loss depends on the network structure and on the batteries operations. Furthermore, in the case where the external currents are modeled by Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes, we derive the dynamical optimal control for the batteries over a finite time interval.

physics.class-ph↗

arXiv2015

Hitting times asymptotics for hard-core interactions on grids

We consider the hard-core model with Metropolis transition probabilities on finite grid graphs and investigate the asymptotic behavior of the first hitting time between its two maximum-occupancy configurations in the low-temperature regime. In particular, we show how the order-of-magnitude of this first hitting time depends on the grid sizes and on the boundary conditions by means of a novel combinatorial method. Our analysis also proves the asymptotic exponentiality of the scaled hitting time and yields the mixing time of the process in the low-temperature limit as side-result. In order to derive these results, we extended the model-independent framework in [27] for first hitting times to allow for a more general initial state and target subset.

math.PR↗

arXiv2014

Slow transitions, slow mixing and starvation in dense random-access networks

We consider dense wireless random-access networks, modeled as systems of particles with hard-core interaction. The particles represent the network users that try to become active after an exponential back-off time, and stay active for an exponential transmission time. Due to wireless interference, active users prevent other nearby users from simultaneous activity, which we describe as hard-core interaction on a conflict graph. We show that dense networks with aggressive back-off schemes lead to extremely slow transitions between dominant states, and inevitably cause long mixing times and starvation effects.

math.PR↗

arXiv2013

Delay performance in random-access grid networks

We examine the impact of torpid mixing and meta-stability issues on the delay performance in wireless random-access networks. Focusing on regular meshes as prototypical scenarios, we show that the mean delays in an $L\times L$ toric grid with normalized load $ρ$ are of the order $(\frac{1}{1-ρ})^L$. This superlinear delay scaling is to be contrasted with the usual linear growth of the order $\frac{1}{1-ρ}$ in conventional queueing networks. The intuitive explanation for the poor delay characteristics is that (i) high load requires a high activity factor, (ii) a high activity factor implies extremely slow transitions between dominant activity states, and (iii) slow transitions cause starvation and hence excessively long queues and delays. Our proof method combines both renewal and conductance arguments. A critical ingredient in quantifying the long transition times is the derivation of the communication height of the uniformized Markov chain associated with the activity process. We also discuss connections with Glauber dynamics, conductance and mixing times. Our proof framework can be applied to other topologies as well, and is also relevant for the hard-core model in statistical physics and the sampling from independent sets using single-site update Markov chains.

math.PR↗

arXiv2012

Mixing Properties of CSMA Networks on Partite Graphs

We consider a stylized stochastic model for a wireless CSMA network. Experimental results in prior studies indicate that the model provides remarkably accurate throughput estimates for IEEE 802.11 systems. In particular, the model offers an explanation for the severe spatial unfairness in throughputs observed in such networks with asymmetric interference conditions. Even in symmetric scenarios, however, it may take a long time for the activity process to move between dominant states, giving rise to potential starvation issues. In order to gain insight in the transient throughput characteristics and associated starvation effects, we examine in the present paper the behavior of the transition time between dominant activity states. We focus on partite interference graphs, and establish how the magnitude of the transition time scales with the activation rate and the sizes of the various network components. We also prove that in several cases the scaled transition time has an asymptotically exponential distribution as the activation rate grows large, and point out interesting connections with related exponentiality results for rare events and meta-stability phenomena in statistical physics. In addition, we investigate the convergence rate to equilibrium of the activity process in terms of mixing times.

math.PR↗