Alessio Piraccini | Searcharxiv

arXiv2026

Births are difficult to predict even with rich survey and full-population register data

Major life events have proven difficult to predict. Does this reflect limits of theory, data, and algorithms, or the large role of chance? We examine one outcome - having a child within three years - through a near-ideal setting for prediction: a data challenge where 147 researchers predicted births for Dutch residents aged 18-45, using survey data and full-population registers. Methods ranged from logistic regression to a large language model and transformers. Predictions were moderately accurate (best F1: register 0.59, survey 0.76); advanced models did not outperform classical ones; and the larger registers did not beat the survey. Simulating the stochastic biology of conception and pregnancy, we estimated a predictive ceiling (survey F1 ~ 0.86-0.94, register 0.88-0.96). Observed performance falls short of this ceiling, implicating imperfect data, methods, and unmodelled chance, while the ceiling itself shows that chance in reproduction alone sets a non-trivial limit on predicting individual lives.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Is Agentic RAG worth it? An experimental comparison of RAG approaches

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems are usually defined by the combination of a generator and a retrieval component that extracts textual context from a knowledge base to answer user queries. However, such basic implementations exhibit several limitations, including noisy or suboptimal retrieval, misuse of retrieval for out-of-scope queries, weak query-document matching, and variability or cost associated with the generator. These shortcomings have motivated the development of "Enhanced" RAG, where dedicated modules are introduced to address specific weaknesses in the workflow. More recently, the growing self-reflective capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) have enabled a new paradigm, often referred to as "Agentic" RAG. In this approach, an LLM orchestrates the entire process, deciding which actions to perform, when to perform them, and whether to iterate. Despite the rapid adoption of both paradigms, it remains unclear which approach is preferable under which conditions. In this work, we conduct an empirically driven evaluation of "Enhanced" and "Agentic" RAG across multiple scenarios and dimensions. Our results provide practical insights into the trade-offs between the two paradigms, offering guidance on selecting the most effective RAG design for real-world applications, considering both performance and costs.

cs.CL↗