arXiv subjects

Alessio Sancetta

Publications and source records attributed to Alessio Sancetta.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2023

Action-State Dependent Dynamic Model Selection

A model among many may only be best under certain states of the world. Switching from a model to another can also be costly. Finding a procedure to dynamically choose a model in these circumstances requires to solve a complex estimation procedure and a dynamic programming problem. A Reinforcement learning algorithm is used to approximate and estimate from the data the optimal solution to this dynamic programming problem. The algorithm is shown to consistently estimate the optimal policy that may choose different models based on a set of covariates. A typical example is the one of switching between different portfolio models under rebalancing costs, using macroeconomic information. Using a set of macroeconomic variables and price data, an empirical application to the aforementioned portfolio problem shows superior performance to choosing the best portfolio model with hindsight.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Estimation of an Order Book Dependent Hawkes Process for Large Datasets

A point process for event arrivals in high frequency trading is presented. The intensity is the product of a Hawkes process and high dimensional functions of covariates derived from the order book. Conditions for stationarity of the process are stated. An algorithm is presented to estimate the model even in the presence of billions of data points, possibly mapping covariates into a high dimensional space. The large sample size can be common for high frequency data applications using multiple liquid instruments. Convergence of the algorithm is shown, consistency results under weak conditions is established, and a test statistic to assess out of sample performance of different model specifications is suggested. The methodology is applied to the study of four stocks that trade on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). The out of sample testing procedure suggests that capturing the nonlinearity of the order book information adds value to the self exciting nature of high frequency trading events.

q-fin.TR↗

arXiv2023

Consistent Causal Inference for High-Dimensional Time Series

A methodology for high dimensional causal inference in a time series context is introduced. It is assumed that there is a monotonic transformation of the data such that the dynamics of the transformed variables are described by a Gaussian vector autoregressive process. This is tantamount to assume that the dynamics are captured by a Gaussian copula. No knowledge or estimation of the marginal distribution of the data is required. The procedure consistently identifies the parameters that describe the dynamics of the process and the conditional causal relations among the possibly high dimensional variables under sparsity conditions. The methodology allows us to identify such causal relations in the form of a directed acyclic graph. As illustrative applications we consider the impact of supply side oil shocks on the economy, and the causal relations between aggregated variables constructed from the limit order book on four stock constituents of the S&P500.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2018

Inference for Additive Models in the Presence of Possibly Infinite Dimensional Nuisance Parameters

A framework for estimation and hypothesis testing of functional restrictions against general alternatives is proposed. The parameter space is a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). The null hypothesis does not necessarily define a parametric model. The test allows us to deal with infinite dimensional nuisance parameters. The methodology is based on a moment equation similar in spirit to the construction of the efficient score in semiparametric statistics. The feasible version of such moment equation requires to consistently estimate projections in the space of RKHS and it is shown that this is possible using the proposed approach. This allows us to derive some tractable asymptotic theory and critical values by fast simulation. Simulation results show that the finite sample performance of the test is consistent with the asymptotics and that ignoring the effect of nuisance parameters highly distorts the size of the tests.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2017

Consistency Results for Stationary Autoregressive Processes with Constrained Coefficients

We consider stationary autoregressive processes with coefficients restricted to an ellipsoid, which includes autoregressive processes with absolutely summable coefficients. We provide consistency results under different norms for the estimation of such processes using constrained and penalized estimators. As an application we show some weak form of universal consistency. Simulations show that directly including the constraint in the estimation can lead to more robust results.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2017

Estimation for the Prediction of Point Processes with Many Covariates

Estimation of the intensity of a point process is considered within a nonparametric framework. The intensity measure is unknown and depends on covariates, possibly many more than the observed number of jumps. Only a single trajectory of the counting process is observed. Interest lies in estimating the intensity conditional on the covariates. The impact of the covariates is modelled by an additive model where each component can be written as a linear combination of possibly unknown functions. The focus is on prediction as opposed to variable screening. Conditions are imposed on the coefficients of this linear combination in order to control the estimation error. The rates of convergence are optimal when the number of active covariates is large. As an application, the intensity of the buy and sell trades of the New Zealand dollar futures is estimated and a test for forecast evaluation is presented. A simulation is included to provide some finite sample intuition on the model and asymptotic properties.

math.ST↗

arXiv2016

Greedy algorithms for prediction

In many prediction problems, it is not uncommon that the number of variables used to construct a forecast is of the same order of magnitude as the sample size, if not larger. We then face the problem of constructing a prediction in the presence of potentially large estimation error. Control of the estimation error is either achieved by selecting variables or combining all the variables in some special way. This paper considers greedy algorithms to solve this problem. It is shown that the resulting estimators are consistent under weak conditions. In particular, the derived rates of convergence are either minimax or improve on the ones given in the literature allowing for dependence and unbounded regressors. Some versions of the algorithms provide fast solution to problems such as Lasso.

math.ST↗

arXiv2006

Weak Convergence of Laws on R^{K} with Common Marginals

We present a result on topologically equivalent integral metrics (Rachev, 1991, Muller, 1997) that metrize weak convergence of laws with common marginals. This result is relevant for applications, as shown in a few simple examples.

math.PR↗