arXiv subjects

Alex Abbey

Publications and source records attributed to Alex Abbey.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2023

Assessing individual risk and the latent transmission of COVID-19 in a population with an interaction-driven temporal model

Interaction-driven modeling of diseases over real-world contact data has been shown to promote the understanding of the spread of diseases in communities. This temporal modeling follows the path-preserving order and timing of the contacts, which are essential for accurate modeling. Yet, other important aspects were overlooked. Various airborne pathogens differ in the duration of exposure needed for infection. Also, from the individual perspective, Covid-19 progression differs between individuals, and its severity is statistically correlated with age. Here, we enrich an interaction-driven model of Covid-19 and similar airborne viral diseases with (a) meetings duration and (b) personal disease progression. The enriched model enables predicting outcomes at both the population and the individual levels. It further allows predicting individual risk of engaging in social interactions as a function of the virus characteristics and its prevalence in the population. We further showed that the enigmatic nature of asymptomatic transmission stems from the latent effect of the network density on this transmission and that asymptomatic transmission has a substantial impact only in sparse communities.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2022

Analysis of the competition among viral strains using a temporal interaction-driven contagion model

The temporal dynamics of social interactions were shown to influence the spread of disease. Here, we model the conditions of progression and competition for several viral strains, exploring various levels of cross-immunity over temporal networks. We use our interaction-driven contagion model and characterize, using it, several viral variants. Our results, obtained on temporal random networks and on real-world interaction data, demonstrate that temporal dynamics are crucial to determining the competition results. We consider two and three competing pathogens and show the conditions under which a slower pathogen will remain active and create a second wave infecting most of the population. We then show that when the duration of the encounters is considered, the spreading dynamics change significantly. Our results indicate that when considering airborne diseases, it might be crucial to consider the duration of temporal meetings to model the spread of pathogens in a population.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

Exploring the effects of activity-preserving time dilation on the dynamic interplay of airborne contagion processes and temporal networks using an interaction-driven model

Contacts' temporal ordering and dynamics are crucial for understanding the transmission of infectious diseases. We introduce an interaction-driven model of an airborne disease over contact networks. We demonstrate our interaction-driven contagion model, instantiated for COVID-19, over history-maintaining random temporal networks and real-world contacts. We use it to evaluate temporal, spatiotemporal, and spatial social distancing policies. We find that a spatial distancing policy is mainly beneficial at the early stages of a disease. We then continue to evaluate temporal social distancing, that is, timeline dilation that maintains the activity potential. We expand our model to consider the exposure to viral load, which we correlate with meetings' duration. Using real-life contact data, we demonstrate the beneficial effect of timeline dilation on overall infection rates. Our results demonstrate that given the same transmission level, there is a decrease in the disease's infection rate and overall prevalence under timeline dilation conditions. We further show that slow-spreading pathogens (i.e., require more prolonged exposure to infect) spread roughly at the same rate as fast-spreading ones in highly active communities. This is surprising since slower pathogens follow paths that include longer meetings, while faster pathogens can potentially follow paths that include shorter meetings, which are more common. Our results demonstrate that the temporal dynamics of a community have a more significant effect on the spread of the disease than the characteristics of the spreading processes.

cs.SI↗