arXiv subjects

Alex Arenas

Publications and source records attributed to Alex Arenas.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2021

The impact of homophily on digital proximity tracing

We study how homophily of human physical interactions affects the efficacy of digital proximity tracing. Analytical results show a non monotonous dependence of the reproduction number with respect to the mixing rate between individuals that adopt the contact tracing app and the ones that do not. Furthermore, we find regimes in which the attack rate has local optima, minima or monotonously varies with the mixing rate. We corroborate our findings with Monte Carlo simulations on a primary-school network. This study provides a mathematical basis to better understand how homophily in health behavior shapes the dynamics of epidemics.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

A message-passing approach to epidemic tracing and mitigation with apps

With the hit of new pandemic threats, scientific frameworks are needed to understand the unfolding of the epidemic. The use of mobile apps that are able to trace contacts is of utmost importance in order to control new infected cases and contain further propagation. Here we present a theoretical approach using both percolation and message--passing techniques, to the role of contact tracing, in mitigating an epidemic wave. We show how the increase of the app adoption level raises the value of the epidemic threshold, which is eventually maximized when high-degree nodes are preferentially targeted. Analytical results are compared with extensive Monte Carlo simulations showing good agreement for both homogeneous and heterogeneous networks. These results are important to quantify the level of adoption needed for contact-tracing apps to be effective in mitigating an epidemic.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Interplay between intra-urban population density and mobility in determining the spread of epidemics

In this work, we address the connection between population density centers in urban areas, and the nature of human flows between such centers, in shaping the vulnerability to the onset of contagious diseases. A study of 163 cities, chosen from four different continents reveals a universal trend, whereby the risk induced by human mobility increases in those cities where mobility flows are predominantly between high population density centers. We apply our formalism to the spread of SARS-COV-2 in the United States, providing a plausible explanation for the observed heterogeneity in the spreading process across cities. Armed with this insight, we propose realistic mitigation strategies (less severe than lockdowns), based on modifying the mobility in cities. Our results suggest that an optimal control strategy involves an asymmetric policy that restricts flows entering the most vulnerable areas but allowing residents to continue their usual mobility patterns.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Virus spread versus contact tracing: two competing contagion processes

After the blockade that many nations suffered to stop the growth of the incidence curve of COVID-19 during the first half of 2020, they face the challenge of resuming their social and economic activity. The rapid airborne transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2, and the absence of a vaccine, calls for active containment measures to avoid the propagation of transmission chains. The best strategy up to date, popularly known as Test-Track-Treat (TTT), consist in testing the population for diagnosis, track the contacts of those infected, and treat by quarantine all these cases. The dynamical process that better describes the combined action of the former mechanisms is that of a contagion process that competes with the spread of the pathogen, cutting off potential contagion pathways. Here we propose a compartmental model that couples the dynamics of the infection with the contact tracing and isolation of cases. We develop an analytical expression for the effective case reproduction number $R_c(t)$ that reveals the role of contact tracing in the mitigation and suppression of the epidemics. We show that there is a trade off between the infection propagation and the isolation of cases. If the isolation is limited to symptomatic individuals only, the incidence curve can be flattened but not bended. However, if contact tracing is applied to asymptomatic individuals too, the strategy can bend the curve and suppress the epidemics. Quantitative results are dependent on the network topology. We quantify, the most important indicator of the effectiveness of contact tracing, namely its capacity to reverse the increasing tendency of the epidemic curve, causing its bending.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

Memory selection and information switching in oscillator networks with higher-order interactions

We study the dynamics of coupled oscillator networks with higher-order interactions and their ability to store information. In particular, the fixed points of these oscillator systems consist of two clusters of oscillators that become entrained at opposite phases, mapping easily to information more commonly represented by sequences of 0's and 1's. While $2^N$ such fixed point states exist in a system of $N$ oscillators, we find that a relatively small fraction of these are stable, as chosen by the network topology. To understand the memory selection of such oscillator networks, we derive a stability criterion to identify precisely which states are stable, i.e., which pieces of information are supported by the network. We also investigate the process by which the system can switch between different stable states when a random perturbation is applied that may force the system into the basin of attraction of another stable state.

nlin.AO↗

arXiv2020

Higher-order interactions in complex networks of phase oscillators promote abrupt synchronization switching

Synchronization processes play critical roles in the functionality of a wide range of both natural and man-made systems. Recent work in physics and neuroscience highlights the importance of higher-order interactions between dynamical units, i.e., three- and four-way interactions in addition to pairwise interactions, and their role in shaping collective behavior. Here we show that higher-order interactions between coupled phase oscillators, encoded microscopically in a simplicial complex, give rise to added nonlinearity in the macroscopic system dynamics that induces abrupt synchronization transitions via hysteresis and bistability of synchronized and incoherent states. Moreover, these higher-order interactions can stabilize strongly synchronized states even when the pairwise coupling is repulsive. These findings reveal a self-organized phenomenon that may be responsible for the rapid switching to synchronization in many biological and other systems that exhibit synchronization without the need of particular correlation mechanisms between the oscillators and the topological structure.

nlin.AO↗

arXiv2020

Evolution of Cooperation in the Presence of Higher-Order Interactions: from Networks to Hypergraphs

Many real systems are strongly characterized by collective cooperative phenomena whose existence and properties still need a satisfactory explanation. Coherently with their collective nature, they call for new and more accurate descriptions going beyond pairwise models, such as graphs, in which all the interactions are considered as involving only two individuals at a time. Hypergraphs respond to this need, providing a mathematical representation of a system allowing from pairs to larger groups. In this work, through the use of different hypergraphs, we study how group interactions influence the evolution of cooperation in a structured population, by analyzing the evolutionary dynamics of the public goods game. Here we show that, likewise network reciprocity, group interactions also promote cooperation. More importantly, by means of an invasion analysis in which the conditions for a strategy to survive are studied, we show how, in heterogeneously-structured populations, reciprocity among players is expected to grow with the increasing of the order of the interactions. This is due to the heterogeneity of connections and, particularly, to the presence of individuals standing out as hubs in the population. Our analysis represents a first step towards the study of evolutionary dynamics through higher-order interactions, and gives insights into why cooperation in heterogeneous higher-order structures is enhanced. Lastly, it also gives clues about the co-existence of cooperative and non-cooperative behaviors related to the structural properties of the interaction patterns.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

Pulsating-campaigns of human prophylaxis driven by risk perception palliate oscillations of direct contact transmitted diseases

Human behavioral responses play an important role in the impact of disease outbreaks and yet they are often overlooked in epidemiological models. Understanding to what extent behavioral changes determine the outcome of spreading epidemics is essential to design effective intervention policies. Here we explore, analytically, the interplay between the personal decision to protect oneself from infection and the spreading of an epidemic. We do so by coupling a decision game based on the perceived risk of infection with a Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model. Interestingly, we find that the simple decision on whether to protect oneself is enough to modify the course of the epidemics, by generating sustained steady oscillations in the prevalence. We deem these oscillations detrimental, and propose two intervention policies aimed at modifying behavioral patterns to help alleviate them. Surprisingly, we find that pulsating campaigns, compared to continuous ones, are more effective in diminishing such oscillations.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

Abrupt phase transition of epidemic spreading in simplicial complexes

Recent studies on network geometry, a way of describing network structures as geometrical objects, are revolutionizing our way to understand dynamical processes on networked systems. Here, we cope with the problem of epidemic spreading, using the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model, in simplicial complexes. In particular, we analyze the dynamics of SIS in complex networks characterized by pairwise interactions (links), and three-body interactions (filled triangles, also known as 2-simplices). This higher-order description of the epidemic spreading is analytically formulated using a microscopic Markov chain approximation. The analysis of the fixed point solutions of the model, reveal an interesting phase transition that becomes abrupt with the infectivity parameter of the 2-simplices. Our results pave the way for network theorists to advance in our physical understanding of epidemic spreading in real scenarios where diseases are transmitted among groups as well as among pairs, and to better understand the behaviour of dynamical processes in simplicial complexes.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2019

A Framework for the Construction of Generative Models for Mesoscale Structure in Multilayer Networks

Multilayer networks allow one to represent diverse and coupled connectivity patterns --- e.g., time-dependence, multiple subsystems, or both --- that arise in many applications and which are difficult or awkward to incorporate into standard network representations. In the study of multilayer networks, it is important to investigate mesoscale (i.e., intermediate-scale) structures, such as dense sets of nodes known as communities, to discover network features that are not apparent at the microscale or the macroscale. The ill-defined nature of mesoscale structure and its ubiquity in empirical networks make it crucial to develop generative models that can produce the features that one encounters in empirical networks. Key purposes of such generative models include generating synthetic networks with empirical properties of interest, benchmarking mesoscale-detection methods and algorithms, and inferring structure in empirical multilayer networks. In this paper, we introduce a framework for the construction of generative models for mesoscale structures in multilayer networks. Our framework provides a standardized set of generative models, together with an associated set of principles from which they are derived, for studies of mesoscale structures in multilayer networks. It unifies and generalizes many existing models for mesoscale structures in fully-ordered (e.g., temporal) and unordered (e.g., multiplex) multilayer networks. One can also use it to construct generative models for mesoscale structures in partially-ordered multilayer networks (e.g., networks that are both temporal and multiplex). Our framework has the ability to produce many features of empirical multilayer networks, and it explicitly incorporates a user-specified dependency structure between layers.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2019

Impact of temporal scales and recurrent mobility patterns on the unfolding of epidemics

Human mobility plays a key role on the transformation of local disease outbreaks into global pandemics. Thus, the inclusion of human movements into epidemic models has become mandatory for understanding current epidemic episodes and to design efficient prevention policies. Following this challenge, here we develop a Markovian framework which enables to address the impact of recurrent mobility patterns on the epidemic onset at different temporal scales. This formalism is validated by comparing their predictions with results from mechanistic simulations. The fair agreement between both theory and simulations enables to get an analytical expression for the epidemic threshold which captures the critical conditions triggering epidemic outbreaks. Finally, by performing an exhaustive analysis of this epidemic threshold, we reveal that the impact of tuning human mobility on the emergence of diseases is strongly affected by the temporal scales associated to both epidemiological and mobility processes.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2019

Exact rank-reduction of network models

With the advent of the big data era, generative models of complex networks are becoming elusive from direct computational simulation. We present an exact, linear-algebraic reduction scheme of generative models of networks. By exploiting the bilinear structure of the matrix representation of the generative model, we separate its null eigenspace, and reduce the exact description of the generative model to a smaller vector space. After reduction, we group generative models in universality classes according to their rank and metric signature, and work out, in a computationally affordable way, their relevant properties (e.g., spectrum). The reduction also provides the environment for a simplified computation of their properties. The proposed scheme works for any generative model admitting a matrix representation, and will be very useful in the study of dynamical processes on networks, as well as in the understanding of generative models to come, according to the provided classification.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2019

Explosive Phenomena in Complex Networks

The emergence of large-scale connectivity and synchronization are crucial to the structure, function and failure of many complex socio-technical networks. Thus, there is great interest in analyzing phase transitions to large-scale connectivity and to global synchronization, including how to enhance or delay the onset. These phenomena are traditionally studied as second-order phase transitions where, at the critical threshold, the order parameter increases rapidly but continuously. In 2009, an extremely abrupt transition was found for a network growth process where links compete for addition in attempt to delay percolation. This observation of "explosive percolation" was ultimately revealed to be a continuous transition in the thermodynamic limit, yet with very atypical finite-size scaling, and it started a surge of work on explosive phenomena and their consequences. Many related models are now shown to yield discontinuous percolation transitions and even hybrid transitions. Explosive percolation enables many other features such as multiple giant components, modular structures, discrete scale invariance and non-self-averaging, relating to properties found in many real phenomena such as explosive epidemics, electric breakdowns and the emergence of molecular life. Models of explosive synchronization provide an analytic framework for the dynamics of abrupt transitions and reveal the interplay between the distribution in natural frequencies and the network structure, with applications ranging from epileptic seizures to waking from anesthesia. Here we review the vast literature on explosive phenomena and synthesize the fundamental connections between models and survey the application areas. We attempt to classify explosive phenomena based on underlying mechanisms and to provide a coherent overview and perspective for future research to address the many vital questions that remained unanswered.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2019

Abrupt Desynchronization and Extensive Multistability in Globally Coupled Oscillator Simplices

Collective behavior in large ensembles of dynamical units with non-pairwise interactions may play an important role in several systems ranging from brain function to social networks. Despite recent work pointing to simplicial structure, i.e., higher-order interactions between three or more units at a time, their dynamical characteristics remain poorly understood. Here we present an analysis of the collective dynamics of such a simplicial system, namely coupled phase oscillators with three-way interactions. The simplicial structure gives rise to a number of novel phenomena, most notably a continuum of abrupt desynchronization transitions with no abrupt synchronization transition counterpart, as well as, extensive multistability whereby infinitely many stable partially synchronized states exist. Our analysis sheds light on the complexity that can arise in physical systems with simplicial interactions like the human brain and the role that simplicial interactions play in storing information.

nlin.AO↗

arXiv2019

Endemicity and prevalence of multipartite viruses under heterogeneous between-host transmission

Multipartite viruses replicate through a puzzling evolutionary strategy. Their genome is segmented into two or more parts, and encapsidated in separate particles that appear to propagate independently. Completing the replication cycle, however, requires the full genome, so that a systemic infection of a host requires the concurrent presence of several particles. This represents an apparent evolutionary drawback of multipartitism, while its advantages remain unclear. A transition from monopartite to multipartite viral forms has been described in vitro under conditions of high multiplicity of infection, suggesting that cooperation between defective mutants is a plausible evolutionary pathway towards multipartitism. However, it is unknown how the putative advantages that multipartitism might enjoy at the microscopic level affect its epidemiology, or if an explicit advantange is needed to explain its ecological persistence. To disentangle which mechanisms might contribute to the rise and fixation of multipartitism, we investigate the interaction between viral spreading dynamics and host population structure. We set up a compartmental model of the spread of a virus in its different forms and explore its epidemiology using both analytical and numerical techniques. We uncover that the impact of host contact structure on spreading dynamics entails a rich phenomenology of ecological relationships that includes cooperation, competition, and commensality. We find that multipartitism might rise to fixation even in the absence of explicit microscopic advantages. Multipartitism allows the virus to colonize environments that could not be invaded by the monopartite form, facilitated by homogeneous contacts among hosts. We conjecture that these features might have led to an increase in the diversity and prevalence of multipartite viral forms concomitantly with the expansion of agricultural practices.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2019

Effect of shortest path multiplicity on congestion of multiplex networks

Shortest paths are representative of discrete geodesic distances in graphs, and many descriptors of networks depend on their counting. In multiplex networks, this counting is radically important to quantify the switch between layers and it has crucial implications in the transportation efficiency and congestion processes. Here we present a mathematical approach to the computation of the joint distribution of distance and multiplicity (degeneration) of shortest paths in multiplex networks, and exploit its relation to congestion processes. The results allow to approximate semi-analytically the onset of congestion in multiplex networks as a function of the congestion of its layers.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2018

Impact of origin-destination information in epidemic spreading

The networked structure of contacts shapes the spreading of epidemic processes. Recent advances on network theory have improved our understanding of the epidemic processes at large scale. The relevance of several considerations still needs to be evaluated in the study of epidemic spreading. One of them is that of accounting for the influence of origin and destination patterns in the flow of the carriers of an epidemic. Here we compute origin-destination patterns compatible with empirical data of coarse grained flows in the air transportation network. We study the incidence of epidemic processes in a metapopulation approach considering different alternatives to the flows prior knowledge. The data-driven scenario where the estimation of origin and destination flows is considered turns out to be relevant to assess the impact of the epidemics at a microscopic level (in our scenario, which populations are infected). However, this information is irrelevant to assess its macroscopic incidence (fraction of infected populations). These results are of interest to implement even better computational platforms to forecast epidemic incidence.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2018

Effective approach to epidemic containment using link equations in complex networks

Epidemic containment is a major concern when confronting large-scale infections in complex networks. Many works have been devoted to analytically understand how to restructure the network to minimize the impact of major outbreaks of infections at large scale. In many cases, the strategies consist in the isolation of certain nodes, while less attention has been paid to the intervention on links. In epidemic spreading, links inform about the probability of carrying the contagion of the disease from infected to susceptible individuals. Note that these states depend on the full structure of the network, and its determination is not straightforward from the knowledge of nodes' states. Here, we confront this challenge and propose a set of discrete-time governing equations \rev{which} can be closed and analyzed, assessing the contribution of links to spreading processes in complex networks. Our approach allows a scheme for the \rev{containment} of epidemics, based on deactivating the most important links in transmitting the disease. The model is validated in synthetic and real networks, obtaining an accurate determination of the epidemic incidence and the critical thresholds. Epidemic containment based on links' deactivation promises to be an effective tool to maintain functionality on networks while controlling the spread of diseases, as for example in air transportation networks.

physics.soc-ph↗