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Alex Burnap

Publications and source records attributed to Alex Burnap.

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Product Aesthetic Design: A Machine Learning Augmentation

Aesthetics are critically important to market acceptance. In the automotive industry, an improved aesthetic design can boost sales by 30% or more. Firms invest heavily in designing and testing aesthetics. A single automotive "theme clinic" can cost over $100,000, and hundreds are conducted annually. We propose a model to augment the commonly-used aesthetic design process by predicting aesthetic scores and automatically generating innovative and appealing product designs. The model combines a probabilistic variational autoencoder (VAE) with adversarial components from generative adversarial networks (GAN) and a supervised learning component. We train and evaluate the model with data from an automotive partner-images of 203 SUVs evaluated by targeted consumers and 180,000 high-quality unrated images. Our model predicts well the appeal of new aesthetic designs-43.5% improvement relative to a uniform baseline and substantial improvement over conventional machine learning models and pretrained deep neural networks. New automotive designs are generated in a controllable manner for use by design teams. We empirically verify that automatically generated designs are (1) appealing to consumers and (2) resemble designs which were introduced to the market five years after our data were collected. We provide an additional proof-of-concept application using opensource images of dining room chairs.

cs.LG

Predicting "Design Gaps" in the Market: Deep Consumer Choice Models under Probabilistic Design Constraints

Predicting future successful designs and corresponding market opportunity is a fundamental goal of product design firms. There is accordingly a long history of quantitative approaches that aim to capture diverse consumer preferences, and then translate those preferences to corresponding "design gaps" in the market. We extend this work by developing a deep learning approach to predict design gaps in the market. These design gaps represent clusters of designs that do not yet exist, but are predicted to be both (1) highly preferred by consumers, and (2) feasible to build under engineering and manufacturing constraints. This approach is tested on the entire U.S. automotive market using of millions of real purchase data. We retroactively predict design gaps in the market, and compare predicted design gaps with actual known successful designs. Our preliminary results give evidence it may be possible to predict design gaps, suggesting this approach has promise for early identification of market opportunity.

econ.EM