arXiv subjects

Alex Geringer-Sameth

Publications and source records attributed to Alex Geringer-Sameth.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

WaveDriver: a Laser Guide Star AO System for HWO

Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) presents a key challenge for technology development in the coming years, requiring a $>$ $100\times$ more stable system than \textit{JWST}. WaveDriver is a concept for a laser guide star spacecraft coupled to an adaptive optics (AO) system onboard HWO that would enable HWO to reach its picometer-level wavefront stability requirements while relaxing other HWO subsystem requirements. At LLNL and UCSC we are revisiting the concept initially proposed by Douglas et al.\ (2019). We present key results key initial results from the first phase of our project, including (1) AO control developments, including with Linear Quadratic Gaussian control and machine learning, (2) AO wavefront sensor (WFS) trade study simulations, and (3) simulations of a photonic lantern natural guide star WFS. A key finding from our work is that WaveDriver could be needed to enable HWO's primary mirror segment stability and/or low order wavefront stability requirements.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2025

An Automated Probabilistic Asteroid Prediscovery Pipeline

We present an automated and probabilistic method to make prediscovery detections of near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) in archival survey images, with the goal of reducing orbital uncertainty immediately after discovery. We refit the Minor Planet Center's astrometry and propagate the full six-parameter covariance to survey epochs to define search regions. We build low-threshold source catalogs for viable images and evaluate every detected source in a search region as a candidate prediscovery. We eliminate false positives by refitting a new orbit to each candidate and probabilistically linking detections across images using a likelihood ratio. Applied to Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) imaging, we identify approximately 3000 recently discovered NEAs with prediscovery potential, including a doubling of the observational arc for about 500. We use archival ZTF imaging to make prediscovery detections of the potentially hazardous asteroid 2021 DG1, extending its arc by 2.5 yr and reducing future apparition sky plane uncertainty from many degrees to arcseconds. We also recover 2025 FU24 nearly 7 yr before its first known observation, when its sky plane uncertainty covers hundreds of square degrees across thousands of ZTF images. The method is survey agnostic and scalable, enabling rapid orbit refinement for new discoveries from Rubin, NEO Surveyor, and NEOMIR.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2025

Multi-year stacking searches for solar system bodies

Digital tracking detects faint solar system bodies by stacking many images along hypothesized orbits, revealing objects that are undetectable in every individual exposure. Previous searches have been restricted to small areas and short time baselines. We present a general framework to quantify both sensitivity and computational requirements for digital tracking of nonlinear motion across the full sky over multi-year baselines. We start from matched-filter stacking and derive how signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) degrades with trial orbit mismatch, which leads to a metric tensor on orbital parameter space. The metric defines local Euclidean coordinates in which SNR loss is isotropic, and a covariant density that specifies the exact number of trial orbits needed for a chosen SNR tolerance. We validate the approach with Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) data, recovering known objects in blind searches that stack thousands of images over six years along billions of trial orbits. We quantify ZTF's sensitivity to populations beyond 5 au and show that stacking reaches most of the remaining Planet 9 parameter space. The computational demands of all-sky, multi-year tracking are extreme, but we demonstrate that time segmentation and image blurring greatly reduce orbit density at modest sensitivity cost. Stacking effectively boosts medium-aperture surveys to the Rubin Observatory single-exposure depth across the northern sky. Digital tracking in dense Rubin observations of a 10 sq. deg field is tractable and could detect trans-Neptunian objects to 27th magnitude in a single night, with deep drilling fields reaching fainter still.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2025

WaveDriver: a Laser Guide Star AO System for HWO

HWO's Tier 1 Contrast Stability Technology Gap presents a key challenge for technology development in the coming years, requiring to a >100x more stable system than JWST. WaveDriver is a concept for a laser guide star spacecraft coupled to an adaptive optics (AO) system onboard HWO that would enable HWO to reach its picometer-level wavefront stability requirements while relaxing other HWO subsystem requirements. At LLNL and UCSC we are revisiting the concept initially proposed by Douglas et al. (2019). We present results from our project's first year, including (1) AO control developments, including with Linear Quadratic Gaussian control and machine learning, (2) AO wavefront sensor (WFS) trade study simulations, and (3) simulations, fabrication, and testing of a 133-port photonic lantern WFS/spectrograph. A key finding from our work is that WaveDriver could be needed to enable HWO's primary mirror segment stability and/or low order wavefront stability requirements.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2025

Survey-Wide Asteroid Discovery with a High-Performance Computing Enabled Non-Linear Digital Tracking Framework

Modern astronomical surveys detect asteroids by linking together their appearances across multiple images taken over time. This approach faces limitations in detecting faint asteroids and handling the computational complexity of trajectory linking. We present a novel method that adapts ``digital tracking" - traditionally used for short-term linear asteroid motion across images - to work with large-scale synoptic surveys such as the Vera Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (Rubin/LSST). Our approach combines hundreds of sparse observations of individual asteroids across their non-linear orbital paths to enhance detection sensitivity by several magnitudes. To address the computational challenges of processing massive data sets and dense orbital phase spaces, we developed a specialized high-performance computing architecture. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method through experiments that take advantage of the extensive computational resources at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. This work enables the detection of significantly fainter asteroids in existing and future survey data, potentially increasing the observable asteroid population by orders of magnitude across different orbital families, from near-Earth objects (NEOs) to Kuiper belt objects (KBOs).

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2021

Identification of high-energy astrophysical point sources via hierarchical Bayesian nonparametric clustering

The light we receive from distant astrophysical objects carries information about their origins and the physical mechanisms that power them. The study of these signals, however, is complicated by the fact that observations are often a mixture of the light emitted by multiple localized sources situated in a spatially-varying background. A general algorithm to achieve robust and accurate source identification in this case remains an open question in astrophysics. This paper focuses on high-energy light (such as X-rays and gamma-rays), for which observatories can detect individual photons (quanta of light), measuring their incoming direction, arrival time, and energy. Our proposed Bayesian methodology uses both the spatial and energy information to identify point sources, that is, separate them from the spatially-varying background, to estimate their number, and to compute the posterior probabilities that each photon originated from each identified source. This is accomplished via a Dirichlet process mixture while the background is simultaneously reconstructed via a flexible Bayesian nonparametric model based on B-splines. Our proposed method is validated with a suite of simulation studies and illustrated with an application to a complex region of the sky observed by the \emph{Fermi} Gamma-ray Space Telescope.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2020

Structure Formation Models Weaken Limits on WIMP Dark Matter from Dwarf Spheroidal Galaxies

Dwarf spheroidal galaxies that form in halo substructures provide stringent constraints on dark matter annihilation. Many ultrafaint dwarfs discovered with modern surveys contribute significantly to these constraints. At present, because of the lack of abundant stellar kinematic data for the ultrafaints, non-informative prior assumptions are usually made for the parameters of the density profiles. Based on semi-analytic models of dark matter subhalos and their connection to satellite galaxies, we present more informative and realistic satellite priors. We show that our satellite priors lead to constraints on the annihilation rate that are between a factor of 2 and a factor of 7 weaker than under non-informative priors. As a result, the thermal relic cross section can at best only be excluded (with 95% probability) for dark matter masses of $\lesssim 40$ GeV from dwarf spheroidal data, assuming annihilation into $b\bar{b}$.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2019

A robust estimate of the Milky Way mass from rotation curve data

We present a new estimate of the mass of the Milky Way, inferred via a Bayesian approach by making use of tracers of the circular velocity in the disk plane and stars in the stellar halo, as from the publicly available {\tt galkin} compilation. We use the rotation curve method to determine the dark matter distribution and total mass under different assumptions for the dark matter profile, while the total stellar mass is constrained by surface stellar density and microlensing measurements. We also include uncertainties on the baryonic morphology via Bayesian model averaging, thus converting a potential source of systematic error into a more manageable statistical uncertainty. We evaluate the robustness of our result against various possible systematics, including rotation curve data selection, uncertainty on the Sun's velocity $V_0$, dependence on the dark matter profile assumptions, and choice of priors. We find the Milky Way's dark matter virial mass to be $\log_{10}M_{200}^{\rm DM}/ {\rm M_\odot} = 11.92^{+0.06}_{-0.05}{\rm(stat)}\pm{0.28}\pm0.27{\rm(syst)}$ ($M_{200}^{\rm DM}=8.3^{+1.2}_{-0.9}{\rm(stat)}\times10^{11}\,{\rm M_\odot}$). We also apply our framework to Gaia DR2 rotation curve data and find good statistical agreement with the above results.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2019

On the origin of the gamma-ray emission from Omega Centauri: Milisecond pulsars and dark matter annihilation

We explore two possible scenarios to explain the observed gamma-ray emission associated with the atypical globular cluster Omega-Centauri: emission from millisecond pulsars (MSP) and dark matter (DM) annihilation. In the first case the total number of MSPs needed to produce the gamma-ray flux is compatible with the known (but not confirmed) MSP candidates observed in X-rays. A DM interpretation is motivated by the possibility of Omega-Centauri being the remnant core of an ancient dwarf galaxy hosting a surviving DM component. At least two annihilation channels, light quarks and muons, can plausibly produce the observed gama-ray spectrum. We outline constraints on the parameter space of DM mass versus the product of the pair-annihilation cross section and integrated squared DM density (the so-called J-factor). We translate upper limits on the dark matter content of Omega-Centauri into lower limits on the annihilation cross section. This shows s-wave annihilation into muons to be inconsistent with CMB observations, while a small window for annihilation into light quarks is allowed. Further analysis of Omega-Centauri's internal kinematics, and/or additional information on the resident MSP population will yield much stronger constraints and shed light about the origin of this otherwise mysterious gamma-ray source.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2019

Bayesian reconstruction of the Milky Way dark matter distribution

We develop a novel Bayesian methodology aimed at reliably and precisely inferring the distribution of dark matter within the Milky Way using rotation curve data. We identify a subset of the available rotation curve tracers that are mutually consistent with each other, thus eliminating data sets that might suffer from systematic bias. We investigate three different models for the mass distribution of the luminous (baryonic) component that bracket the range of likely morphologies. We demonstrate the statistical performance of our method on simulated data in terms of coverage, fractional distance, and mean squared error. Applying it to Milky Way data we measure the local dark matter density at the solar circle $\rho_0$ to be $\rho_0 = 0.43\pm 0.02(\rm{stat})\pm0.01(\rm{sys})$ GeV/cm$^3$, with an accuracy $\sim$ 6%. This result is robust to the assumed baryonic morphology. The scale radius and inner slope of the dark matter profile are degenerate and cannot be individually determined with high accuracy. We show that these results are robust to several possible residual systematic errors in the rotation curve data.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2018

A Global Analysis of Dark Matter Signals from 27 Dwarf Spheroidal Galaxies using 11 Years of Fermi-LAT Observations

We search for a dark matter signal in 11 years of Fermi-LAT gamma-ray data from 27 Milky Way dwarf spheroidal galaxies with spectroscopically measured $J$-factors. Our analysis includes uncertainties in $J$-factors and background normalisations and compares results from a Bayesian and a frequentist perspective. We revisit the dwarf spheroidal galaxy Reticulum II, confirming that the purported gamma-ray excess seen in Pass 7 data is much weaker in Pass 8, independently of the statistical approach adopted. We introduce for the first time posterior predictive distributions to quantify the probability of a dark matter detection from another dwarf galaxy given a tentative excess. A global analysis including all 27 dwarfs shows no indication for a signal in nine annihilation channels. We present stringent new Bayesian and frequentist upper limits on the dark matter cross section as a function of dark matter mass. The best-fit dark matter parameters associated with the Galactic Centre excess are excluded by at least 95% confidence level/posterior probability in the frequentist/Bayesian framework in all cases. However, from a Bayesian model comparison perspective, dark matter annihilation within the dwarfs is not strongly disfavoured compared to a background-only model. These results constitute the highest exposure analysis on the most complete sample of dwarfs to date. Posterior samples and likelihood maps from this study are publicly available.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2018

Galaxy Cluster Mass Estimates in the Presence of Substructure

We develop and implement a model to analyze the internal kinematics of galaxy clusters that may contain subpopulations of galaxies that do not independently trace the cluster potential. The model allows for substructures within the cluster environment, disentangles cluster members from contaminating foreground and background galaxies, and includes an overall cluster rotation term as part of the cluster kinematics. We estimate the cluster velocity dispersion and/or mass while marginalizing over uncertainties in all of the above complexities. In a first application to our published data for Abell 267 (A267), we find no evidence for cluster rotation but we identify up to five distinct galaxy subpopulations. We use these results to explore the sensitivity of inferred cluster properties to the treatment of substructure. Compared to a model that assumes no substructure, our substructure model reduces the dynamical mass of A267 by $\sim 20\%$ and shifts the cluster mean velocity by $\sim 100$ km s$^{-1}$, approximately doubling the offset with respect to the velocity of A267's brightest cluster galaxy. Embedding the spherical Jeans equation within this framework, we infer for A267 a dark matter halo of mass $M_{200}=6.77\pm1.06\times10^{14}M_\odot/h$, concentration $\log_{10}c_{200}=0.61\pm0.39$, consistent with the mass-concentration relation found in cosmological simulations.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2018

Astrophysical explanations of suspected dark matter signals in dwarf galaxies

We present methods to assess whether gamma-ray excesses towards Milky Way dwarf galaxies can be attributed to astrophysical sources rather than to dark matter annihilation. As a case study we focus on Reticulum II, the dwarf which shows the strongest evidence for a gamma-ray signal in Fermi data. Dark matter models and those with curved energy spectra provide good fits to the data, while a simple power law is ruled out at 97.5% confidence. We compare RetII's spectrum to known classes of gamma-ray sources and find a useful representation in terms of spectral curvature and the energy at which the spectral energy distribution peaks. In this space the blazar classes appear segregated from the confidence region occupied by RetII. Pulsars have similar gamma-ray spectra to RetII but we show that RetII is unlikely to host a pulsar population detectable in gamma rays. Tensions with astrophysical explanations are stronger when analyzing 6.5 years of Pass 7 than with the same amount of Pass 8 data, where the excess is less significant. These methods are applicable to any dwarf galaxy which is a promising dark matter target and shows signs of gamma-ray emission along its line of sight.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2018

Snake in the Clouds: A new nearby dwarf galaxy in the Magellanic bridge

We report the discovery of a nearby dwarf galaxy in the constellation of Hydrus, between the Large and the Small Magellanic Clouds. Hydrus 1 is a mildy elliptical ultra-faint system with luminosity $M_V\sim$ -4.7 and size $\sim$ 50 pc, located 28 kpc from the Sun and 24 kpc from the LMC. From spectroscopy of $\sim$ 30 member stars, we measure a velocity dispersion of 2.7 km/s and find tentative evidence for a radial velocity gradient consistent with 3 km/s rotation. Hydrus 1's velocity dispersion indicates that the system is dark matter dominated, but its dynamical mass-to-light ratio M/L $\sim$ 66 is significantly smaller than typical for ultra-faint dwarfs at similar luminosity. The kinematics and spatial position of Hydrus~1 make it a very plausible member of the family of satellites brought into the Milky Way by the Magellanic Clouds. While Hydrus 1's proximity and well-measured kinematics make it a promising target for dark matter annihilation searches, we find no evidence for significant gamma-ray emission from Hydrus 1. The new dwarf is a metal-poor galaxy with a mean metallicity [Fe/H]=-2.5 and [Fe/H] spread of 0.4 dex, similar to other systems of similar luminosity. Alpha-abundances of Hyi 1 members indicate that star-formation was extended, lasting between 0.1 and 1 Gyr, with self-enrichment dominated by SN Ia. The dwarf also hosts a highly carbon-enhanced extremely metal-poor star with [Fe/H] $\sim$ -3.2 and [C/Fe] $\sim$ +3.0.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2016

Crater 2: An Extremely Cold Dark Matter Halo

We present results from MMT/Hectochelle spectroscopy of red giant candidate stars along the line of sight to the recently-discovered Galactic satellite Crater 2. Modelling the joint distribution of stellar positions, velocities and metallicities as a mixture of Crater 2 and Galactic foreground populations, we identify 62 members of Crater 2, for which we resolve line-of-sight velocity dispersion 2.7 +/- 0.3 km/s about mean velocity of 87.5 +/- 0.4 km/s. We also resolve a metallicity dispersion 0.22 about a mean of [Fe/H]=-1.98 +/- 0.1 that is 0.28 +/- 0.14 poorer than is estimated from photometry. Despite Crater 2's relatively large size (projected halflight radius R(h)=1 kpc) and intermediate luminosity (M_V =-8), its velocity dispersion is the coldest that has been resolved for any dwarf galaxy. These properties make Crater 2 the most extreme low-density outlier in dynamical as well as structural scaling relations among the Milky Way's dwarf spheroidals. Even so, under assumptions of dynamical equilibrium and negligible contamination by unresolved binary stars, the observed velocity distribution implies a gravitationally dominant dark matter halo, with dynamical mass 4.4 x 10^6 Msun and mass-to-light ratio M/L=53 enclosed within a radius of 1 kpc, where the equivalent circular velocity is 4.3 km/s.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2016

Indirect Dark Matter Detection for Flattened Dwarf Galaxies

Gamma-ray experiments seeking to detect evidence of dark matter annihilation in dwarf spheroidal galaxies require knowledge of the distribution of dark matter within these systems. We analyze the effects of flattening on the annihilation (J) and decay (D) factors of dwarf spheroidal galaxies with both analytic and numerical methods. Flattening has two consequences: first, there is a geometric effect as the squeezing (or stretching) of the dark matter distribution enhances (or diminishes) the J-factor; second, the line of sight velocity dispersion of stars must hold up the flattened baryonic component in the flattened dark matter halo. We provide analytic formulae and a simple numerical approach to estimate the correction to the J- and D-factors required over simple spherical modeling. The formulae are validated with a series of equilibrium models of flattened stellar distributions embedded in flattened dark-matter distributions. We compute corrections to the J- and D-factors for the Milky Way dwarf spheroidal galaxies under the assumption that they are all prolate or all oblate and find that the hierarchy of J-factors for the dwarf spheroidals is slightly altered (typical correction factors for an ellipticity of $0.4$ are $0.75$ for the oblate case and $1.6$ for the prolate case). We demonstrate that spherical estimates of the D-factors are very insensitive to the flattening and introduce uncertainties significantly less than the uncertainties in the D-factors from the other observables for all the dwarf spheroidals (for example, ${}^{+10\mathrm{\,percent}}_{-3\mathrm{\,percent}}$ for a typical ellipticity of $0.4$). We conclude by investigating the spread in correction factors produced by triaxial figures and provide uncertainties in the J-factors for the dwarf spheroidals using different physically-motivated assumptions for their intrinsic shape and axis alignments. (abridged)

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2015

Indication of Gamma-ray Emission from the Newly Discovered Dwarf Galaxy Reticulum II

We present a search for gamma-ray emission from the direction of the newly discovered dwarf galaxy Reticulum II. Using Fermi-LAT data, we detect a signal that exceeds expected backgrounds between ~2-10 GeV and is consistent with annihilation of dark matter for particle masses less than a few x 10^2 GeV. Modeling the background as a Poisson process based on Fermi-LAT diffuse models, and taking into account trials factors, we detect emission with p-value less than 9.8 x 10^-5 (>3.7 sigma). An alternative, model-independent treatment of background reduces the significance, raising the p-value to 9.7 x 10^-3 (2.3 sigma). Even in this case, however, Reticulum II has the most significant gamma-ray signal of any known dwarf galaxy. If Reticulum II has a dark matter halo that is similar to those inferred for other nearby dwarfs, the signal is consistent with the s-wave relic abundance cross section for annihilation.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2015

Dwarf galaxy annihilation and decay emission profiles for dark matter experiments

Gamma-ray searches for dark matter annihilation and decay in dwarf galaxies rely on an understanding of the dark matter density profiles of these systems. Conversely, uncertainties in these density profiles propagate into the derived particle physics limits as systematic errors. In this paper we quantify the expected dark matter signal from 20 Milky Way dwarfs using a uniform analysis of the most recent stellar-kinematic data available. Assuming that the observed stellar populations are equilibrium tracers of spherically-symmetric gravitational potentials that are dominated by dark matter, we find that current stellar-kinematic data can predict the amplitudes of annihilation signals to within a factor of a few for the ultra-faint dwarfs of greatest interest. On the other hand, the expected signal from several classical dwarfs (with high-quality observations of large numbers of member stars) can be localized to the ~20% level. These results are important for designing maximally sensitive searches in current and future experiments using space and ground-based instruments.

astro-ph.CO↗