arXiv subjects

Alex H. Parker

Publications and source records attributed to Alex H. Parker.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Rotational Dynamics in Pulsational Pair-Instability Supernovae: Implications for Mass-Loss and Transient Events

Pulsational pair-instability supernovae (PPISNe) are transient events occurring in progenitor stars with helium cores of approximately 32-65 solar masses, where rapid electron-positron pair production induces pressure loss, collapse, and pulsations driving episodic mass loss. The number, strength, and duration of these pulses can lead to shell collisions that produce shock-powered transients, potentially explaining some of the most luminous events, such as superluminous supernovae, and other rare transients. Rapid progenitor rotation lowers the PPISN mass threshold and influences the dynamics, energetics, and chemical composition of PPISN-driven pulses. In this study, we computed 1D evolutionary models of massive, rotating PPISN progenitor stars with zero-age main-sequence masses of 85-140 solar masses and solar metallicity and 10% solar metallicity. Our analysis reveals strong correlations between PPISN ejected mass and total energy as well as between ejected mass and peak ejected shell velocity. Additionally, moderate correlations indicate that higher initial PPISN progenitor mass leads to greater mass ejection and energy release, while negative correlations show that rapid rotation appears to reduce mass ejection and kinetic energy of the shells. Subsequent pulses lead to hydrogen-poor, carbon- and oxygen-enriched ejected shells, indicating the effect of rotationally-induced chemical mixing in PPISN-driven episodic mass loss with implications for their transients. We model the light curve and synthetic spectra that arise from the collision of two H-poor shells for one of our models using the radiation transport code SuperLite. We find that shock-heated H-poor PPISN shell collisions from rapidly rotating progenitors can lead to moderately luminous H-poor transients that share some similarities with observed SLSN-I events.

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arXiv2025

The visibility of the Ōtautahi-Oxford interstellar object population model in LSST

With a new probabilistic technique for sampling interstellar object (ISO) orbits with high efficiency, we assess the observability of ISOs under a realistic cadence for the upcoming Vera Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). Using the Ōtautahi-Oxford population model, we show that there will be complex on-sky structure in the pattern of direction and velocity revealed by the detected ISO population, with the expected enhanced northern flux complicating efforts to derive population parameters from the LSST's predominately southern footprint. For luminosity functions with slopes of $2.5\leq q_s\leq 4.0$, the most discoverable ISOs have $H_r\simeq 14.6-20.7$; for previously estimated spatial densities, between 6 and 51 total ISOs are expected. The slope of the luminosity function of ISOs will be relatively quickly constrained. Discoveries are evenly split around their perihelion passage and are biased to lower velocities. After their discovery by LSST, it will be rare for ISOs to be visible for less than a month; most will have $m_r \leq 23$ for months, and the window for spectroscopic characterization could be as long as two years. These probabilistic assessments are robust against model or spatial density refinements that change the absolute numbers of ISO discoveries.

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arXiv2024

Prominent mid-infrared excess of the dwarf planet (136472) Makemake discovered by JWST/MIRI indicates ongoing activity

We report on the discovery of a very prominent mid-infrared (18-25 μm) excess associated with the trans-Neptunian dwarf planet (136472) Makemake. The excess, detected by the MIRI instrument of the James Webb Space Telescope, along with previous measurements from the Spitzer and Herschel space telescopes, indicates the occurrence of temperatures of about 150 K, much higher than what solid surfaces at Makemake's heliocentric distance could reach by solar irradiation. We identify two potential explanations: a continuously visible, currently active region, powered by subsurface upwelling and possibly cryovolcanic activity, covering <1% of Makemake's surface, or an as yet undetected ring containing very small carbonaceous dust grains, which have not been seen before in trans-Neptunian or Centaur rings. Both scenarios point to unprecedented phenomena among trans-Neptunian objects and could greatly impact our understanding of these distant worlds.

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arXiv2024

The New Horizons Extended Mission Target: Arrokoth Search and Discovery

Following the Pluto fly-by of the New Horizons spacecraft, the mission provided a unique opportunity to explore the Kuiper Belt in-situ. The possibility existed to fly-by a Kuiper Belt object (KBO) as well as to observe additional objects at distances closer than are feasible from earth-orbit facilities. However, at the time of launch no KBOs were known about that were accessible by the spacecraft. In this paper we present the results of 10 years of observations and three uniquely dedicated efforts -- two ground-based using the Subaru Suprime Camera, the Magellan MegaCam and IMACS Cameras, and one with the Hubble Space Telescope -- to find such KBOs for study. In this paper we overview the search criteria and strategies employed in our work and detail the analysis efforts to locate and track faint objects in the galactic plane. We also present a summary of all of the KBOs that were discovered as part of our efforts and how spacecraft targetability was assessed, including a detailed description of our astrometric analysis which included development of an extensive secondary calibration network. Overall, these efforts resulted in the discovery of 89 KBOs including 11 which became objects for distant observation by New Horizons and (486958) Arrokoth which became the first post-Pluto fly-by destination.

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arXiv2024

Detection of Close Kuiper Belt Binaries with HST WFC3

Binaries in the Kuiper Belt are common. Here we present our analysis of the Solar System Origins Legacy Survey (SSOLS) to show that using a PSF-fitting method can roughly double the number of binaries identified in that dataset. Out of 198 Kuiper Belt objects (KBOs) observed by SSOLS, we find 23 to be visually separated binaries, while a further 19 are blended-PSF binaries detectable with the method we present here. This is an overall binary fraction of 21% for the SSOLS dataset of cold classical KBOs. In addition, we tested our fitting methods on synthetic data, and while we were able to show it to be very effective at detecting certain blended-PSF binary KBOs, fainter or closer binary KBOs may easily be missed, suggesting that the close binary KBO fraction could be even higher. These results strongly support the idea that most (if not all) KBOs were formed through the Streaming Instability process, and as a consequence, most KBOs were formed as near-equal mass binaries.

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arXiv2023

OSSOS: XXVII. Population Estimates for Theoretically Stable Centaurs Between Uranus and Neptune

We calculate the upper bounds of the population of theoretically stable Centaur orbits between Uranus and Neptune. These small bodies are on low-eccentricity, low-inclination orbits in two specific bands of semi-major axis, centred at $\sim$24.6 au and $\sim$25.6 au. They exhibit unusually long Gyr-stable lifetimes in previously published numerical integrations, orders of magnitude longer than that of a typical Centaur. Despite the increased breadth and depth of recent solar system surveys, no such objects have been found. Using the Outer Solar System Origins Survey (OSSOS) survey simulator to calculate the detection efficiency for these objects in an ensemble of fully characterised surveys, we determine that a population of 72 stable Centaurs with absolute magnitude $H_{r}\leq10$ ($95\%$ confidence upper limit) could remain undetected. The upcoming Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will be able to detect this entire intrinsic population due to its complete coverage of the ecliptic plane. If detected, these objects will be interesting dynamically-accessible mission targets -- especially as comparison of the stable Centaur orbital phase space to the outcomes of several modern planetary migration simulations suggests that these objects could be close to primordial in nature.

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arXiv2021

Trans-Neptunian Space and the Post-Pluto Paradigm

The Pluto system is an archetype for the multitude of icy dwarf planets and accompanying satellite systems that populate the vast volume of the solar system beyond Neptune. New Horizons' exploration of Pluto and its five moons gave us a glimpse into the range of properties that their kin may host. Furthermore, the surfaces of Pluto and Charon record eons of bombardment by small trans-Neptunian objects, and by treating them as witness plates we can infer a few key properties of the trans-Neptunian population at sizes far below current direct-detection limits. This chapter summarizes what we have learned from the Pluto system about the origins and properties of the trans-Neptunian populations, the processes that have acted upon those members over the age of the solar system, and the processes likely to remain active today. Included in this summary is an inference of the properties of the size distribution of small trans-Neptunian objects and estimates on the fraction of binary systems present at small sizes. Further, this chapter compares the extant properties of the satellites of trans-Neptunian dwarf planets and their implications for the processes of satellite formation and the early evolution of planetesimals in the outer solar system. Finally, this chapter concludes with a discussion of near-term theoretical, observational, and laboratory efforts that can further ground our understanding of the Pluto system and how its properties can guide future exploration of trans-Neptunian space.

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arXiv2019

k-Means Aperture Optimization Applied to Kepler K2 Time Series Photometry of Titan

Motivated by the Kepler K2 time series of Titan, we present an aperture optimization technique for extracting photometry of saturated moving targets with high temporally- and spatially-varying backgrounds. Our approach uses $k$-means clustering to identify interleaved families of images with similar Point-Spread Function and saturation properties, optimizes apertures for each family independently, then merges the time series through a normalization procedure. By applying $k$-means aperture optimization to the K2 Titan data, we achieve $\leq$0.33% photometric scatter in spite of background levels varying from 15% to 60% of the target's flux. We find no compelling evidence for signals attributable to atmospheric variation on the timescales sampled by these observations. We explore other potential applications of the $k$-means aperture optimization technique, including testing its performance on a saturated K2 eclipsing binary star. We conclude with a discussion of the potential for future continuous high-precision photometry campaigns for revealing the dynamical properties of Titan's atmosphere.

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arXiv2019

The mass and density of the dwarf planet (225088) 2007 OR10

The satellite of (225088) 2007 OR10 was discovered on archival Hubble Space Telescope images and along with new observations with the WFC3 camera in late 2017 we have been able to determine the orbit. The orbit's notable eccentricity, e$\approx$0.3, may be a consequence of an intrinsically eccentric orbit and slow tidal evolution, but may also be caused by the Kozai mechanism. Dynamical considerations also suggest that the moon is small, D$_{eff}$ $<$ 100 km. Based on the newly determined system mass of 1.75x10$^{21}$ kg, 2007 OR10 is the fifth most massive dwarf planet after Eris, Pluto, Haumea and Makemake. The newly determined orbit has also been considered as an additional option in our radiometric analysis, provided that the moon orbits in the equatorial plane of the primary. Assuming a spherical shape for the primary this approach provides a size of 1230$\pm$50 km, with a slight dependence on the satellite orbit orientation and primary rotation rate chosen, and a bulk density of 1.75$\pm$0.07 g cm$^{-3}$ for the primary. A previous size estimate that assumed an equator-on configuration (1535$^{+75}_{-225}$ km) would provide a density of 0.92$^{+0.46}_{-0.14}$ g cm$^{-3}$, unexpectedly low for a 1000 km-sized dwarf planet.

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arXiv2018

Great Expectations: Plans and Predictions for New Horizons Encounter with Kuiper Belt Object 2014 MU69 ('Ultima Thule')

The New Horizons encounter with the cold classical Kuiper Belt object (KBO) 2014 MU69 (informally named 'Ultima Thule,' hereafter Ultima) on 1 January 2019 will be the first time a spacecraft has ever closely observed one of the free-orbiting small denizens of the Kuiper Belt. Related to but not thought to have formed in the same region of the Solar System as the comets that been explored so far, it will also be the largest, most distant, and most primitive body yet visited by spacecraft. In this letter we begin with a brief overview of cold classical KBOs, of which Ultima is a prime example. We give a short preview of our encounter plans. We note what is currently known about Ultima from earth-based observations. We then review our expectations and capabilities to evaluate Ultima's composition, surface geology, structure, near space environment, small moons, rings, and the search for activity.

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arXiv2018

High-Precision Orbit Fitting and Uncertainty Analysis of (486958) 2014 MU69

NASA's New Horizons spacecraft will conduct a close flyby of the cold classical Kuiper Belt Object (KBO) designated (486958) 2014 MU69 on January 1, 2019. At a heliocentric distance of 44 AU, "MU69" will be the most distant object ever visited by a spacecraft. To enable this flyby, we have developed an extremely high precision orbit fitting and uncertainty processing pipeline, making maximal use of the Hubble Space Telescope's Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3) and pre-release versions of the ESA Gaia Data Release 2 (DR2) catalog. This pipeline also enabled successful predictions of a stellar occultation by MU69 in July 2017. We describe how we process the WFC3 images to match the Gaia DR2 catalog, extract positional uncertainties for this extremely faint target (typically 140 photons per WFC3 exposure), and translate those uncertainties into probability distribution functions for MU69 at any given time. We also describe how we use these uncertainties to guide New Horizons, plan stellar occultions of MU69, and derive MU69's orbital evolution and long-term stability.

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arXiv2017

Laboratory Investigations of Titan Haze Formation: In Situ Measurement of Gas and Particle Composition

Prior to the arrival of Cassini-Huygens, aerosol production in Titan's atmosphere was believed to begin in the stratosphere where chemical processes are predominantly initiated by FUV radiation. However, measurements taken by Cassini UVIS and CAPS indicate that haze formation initiates in the thermosphere where there is a greater flux of EUV photons and energetic particles available to initiate chemical reactions, including the destruction of N2. The discovery of previously unpredicted nitrogen species in Titan's atmosphere by Cassini INMS indicates that nitrogen participates in the chemistry to a much greater extent than was appreciated before Cassini. The degree of nitrogen in the haze is important for understanding the diversity of molecules present in Titan's atmosphere and on its surface. We have conducted a series of simulation experiments using either spark discharge or FUV photons to initiate chemistry in CH4/N2 gas mixtures (0.01% CH4/99.99% N2 to 10% CH4/90% N2). We obtained in situ real-time measurements using an HR-ToF-AMS to measure the particle composition as a function of particle size and a PIT-MS to measure the composition of gas phase products. These two techniques allow us to investigate the effect of energy source and initial CH4 concentration on the degree of nitrogen incorporation in both the gas and solid phase products. The results presented here confirm that FUV photons produce not only solid phase nitrogen bearing products but also gas phase nitrogen species. We find that in both the gas and solid phase, nitrogen is found in nitriles rather than amines and both the gas phase and solid phase products are composed primarily of molecules with a low degree of aromaticity. The UV experiments reproduce the absolute abundances measured in Titan's stratosphere for a number of gas phase species including C4H2, C6H6, HCN, CH3CN, HC3N, and C2H5CN. [Edited for length]

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arXiv2017

Haze in Pluto's Atmosphere

Haze in Pluto's atmosphere was detected in images by both the Long Range Reconnaissance Imager (LORRI) and the Multispectral Visible Imaging Camera (MVIC) on New Horizons. LORRI observed haze up to altitudes of at least 200 km above Pluto's surface at solar phase angles from ~20° to ~169°. The haze is structured with about ~20 layers, and the extinction due to haze is greater in the northern hemisphere than at equatorial or southern latitudes. However, more haze layers are discerned at equatorial latitudes. A search for temporal variations found no evidence for motions of haze layers (temporal changes in layer altitudes) on time scales of 2 to 5 hours, but did find evidence of changes in haze scale height above 100 km altitude. An ultraviolet extinction attributable to the atmospheric haze was also detected by the ALICE ultraviolet spectrograph on New Horizons. The haze particles are strongly forward-scattering in the visible, and a microphysical model of haze is presented which reproduces the visible phase function just above the surface with 0.5 μm spherical particles, but also invokes fractal aggregate particles to fit the visible phase function at 45 km altitude and account for UV extinction. A model of haze layer generation by orographic excitation of gravity waves is presented. This model accounts for the observed layer thickness and distribution with altitude. Haze particles settle out of the atmosphere and onto Pluto's surface, at a rate sufficient to alter surface optical properties on seasonal time scales. Pluto's regional scale albedo contrasts may be preserved in the face of the haze deposition by atmospheric collapse.

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arXiv2016

The First High-Phase Observations of a KBO: New Horizons Imaging of (15810) 1994 JR1 from the Kuiper Belt

NASA's New Horizons spacecraft observed (15810) 1994 JR$_1$, a 3:2 resonant Kupier Belt Object (KBO), using the LOng Range Reconnaissance Imager (LORRI) on November 2, 2015 from a distance of 1.85 AU, and again on April 7, 2016 from a distance of 0.71 AU. These were the first close observations of any KBO other than Pluto. Combining ground-based and Hubble Space Telecope (HST) observations at small phase angles and the LORRI observations at higher phase angles, we produced the first disk-integrated solar phase curve of a typical KBO from $α$=0.6-58$^\circ$. Observations at these geometries, attainable only from a spacecraft in the outer Solar System, constrain surface properties such as macroscopic roughness and the single particle phase function. 1994 JR$_1$ has a rough surface with a 37$\pm$5$^\circ$ mean topographic slope angle and has a relatively rapid rotation period of 5.47$\pm$0.33 hours. 1994 JR$_1$ is currently 2.7 AU from Pluto; our astrometric points enable high-precision orbit determination and integrations which show that it comes this close to Pluto every 2.4 million years (10$^4$ heliocentric orbits), causing Pluto to perturb 1994 JR$_1$. During the November spacecraft observation, the KBO was simultaneously observed using HST in two colors, confirming its very red spectral slope. These observations have laid the groundwork for numerous potential future distant KBO observations in the New Horizons-Kuiper Belt Extended Mission.

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arXiv2016

Discovery of a Makemakean Moon

We describe the discovery of a satellite in orbit about the dwarf planet (136472) Makemake. This satellite, provisionally designated S/2015 (136472) 1, was detected in imaging data collected with the Hubble Space Telescope's Wide Field Camera 3 on UTC April 27, 2015 at 7.80$\pm$0.04 magnitudes fainter than Makemake. It likely evaded detection in previous satellite searches due to a nearly edge-on orbital configuration, placing it deep within the glare of Makemake during a substantial fraction of its orbital period. This configuration would place Makemake and its satellite near a mutual event season. Insufficient orbital motion was detected to make a detailed characterization of its orbital properties, prohibiting a measurement of the system mass with the discovery data alone. Preliminary analysis indicates that if the orbit is circular, its orbital period must be longer than 12.4 days, and must have a semi-major axis $\gtrsim$21,000 km. We find that the properties of Makemake's moon suggest that the majority of the dark material detected in the system by thermal observations may not reside on the surface of Makemake, but may instead be attributable to S/2015 (136472) 1 having a uniform dark surface. This "dark moon hypothesis" can be directly tested with future JWST observations. We discuss the implications of this discovery for the spin state, figure, and thermal properties of Makemake and the apparent ubiquity of trans-Neptunian dwarf planet satellites.

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arXiv2016

The Atmosphere of Pluto as Observed by New Horizons

Observations made during the New Horizons flyby provide a detailed snapshot of the current state of Pluto's atmosphere. While the lower atmosphere (at altitudes <200 km) is consistent with ground-based stellar occultations, the upper atmosphere is much colder and more compact than indicated by pre-encounter models. Molecular nitrogen (N$_2$) dominates the atmosphere (at altitudes <1800 km or so), while methane (CH$_4$), acetylene (C$_2$H$_2$), ethylene (C$_2$H$_4$), and ethane (C$_2$H$_6$) are abundant minor species, and likely feed the production of an extensive haze which encompasses Pluto. The cold upper atmosphere shuts off the anticipated enhanced-Jeans, hydrodynamic-like escape of Pluto's atmosphere to space. It is unclear whether the current state of Pluto's atmosphere is representative of its average state--over seasonal or geologic time scales.

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arXiv2015

Asteroid Family Physical Properties

An asteroid family is typically formed when a larger parent body undergoes a catastrophic collisional disruption, and as such family members are expected to show physical properties that closely trace the composition and mineralogical evolution of the parent. Recently a number of new datasets have been released that probe the physical properties of a large number of asteroids, many of which are members of identified families. We review these data sets and the composite properties of asteroid families derived from this plethora of new data. We also discuss the limitations of the current data, and the open questions in the field.

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arXiv2014

The Intrinsic Neptune Trojan Orbit Distribution: Implications for the Primordial Disk and Planet Migration

The present-day orbit distribution of the Neptune Trojans is a powerful probe of the dynamical environment of the outer solar system during the late stages of planet migration. In this work, I conservatively debias the inclination, eccentricity, and libration amplitude distributions of the Neptune Trojans by reducing a priori unknown discovery and follow-up survey properties to nuisance parameters and using a likelihood-free Bayesian rejection sampler for parameter estimation. Using this survey-agnostic approach, I confirm that the Neptune Trojans are a dynamically excited population: at $>$95% confidence, the Neptune Trojans' inclination width must be $σ_i > 11^\circ$. For comparison and motivation purposes, I also model the Jupiter Trojan orbit distributions in the same basis and produce new estimates of their parameters (Jupiter Trojan $σ_i=14.4^\circ \pm 0.5^\circ$, $σ_{L11} = 11.8^\circ \pm 0.5^\circ$, and $σ_e = 0.061\pm 0.002$). The debiased inclination, libration amplitude, and eccentricity distributions of the Neptune Trojans are nominally very similar to those of the Jupiter Trojans. I use these new constraints to inform a suite of simulations of Neptune Trojan capture by an eccentric, rapidly-migrating Neptune from an initially dynamically-hot disk. These simulations demonstrate that if migration and eccentricity-damping timescales were short ($τ_a \lesssim 10$ Myr, $τ_e \lesssim 1$ Myr), the disk that Neptune migrated into must have been pre-heated (prior to Neptune's appearance) to a width comparable to the Neptune Trojans' extant width to produce a captured population with an inclination distribution width consistent with that of the observed population.

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