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Alex Lipton

Publications and source records attributed to Alex Lipton.

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A Geometry-Aware Residual Correction of Hagan's SABR Implied Volatility Formula

This paper proposes a hybrid methodology to improve the approximation of SABR (Stochastic Alpha Beta Rho) implied volatility by combining analytical structure with machine learning. The approach augments the neural-network input representation with geometric features derived from the stochastic differential equations of the SABR model. Unlike approaches that fully replace analytical formulas with black-box models, the proposed framework preserves the analytical backbone of the model. The hybridization operates along two complementary dimensions. First, geometry-aware variables reflecting intrinsic properties of the SABR dynamics are used as structured inputs to the network. Second, the neural network is trained to learn the residual error relative to Hagan's closed-form approximation rather than implied volatility directly. The resulting model acts as a structured residual correction to the analytical formula, retaining interpretability while capturing higher-order effects that are not included in the asymptotic expansion. Numerical experiments conducted over realistic parameter domains, as well as stressed environments, show that the method improves accuracy and robustness compared with both analytical approximations and standard neural-network approaches. Because the correction remains lightweight and structurally consistent with the underlying model, the framework is well suited for real-time pricing and calibration in practical trading environments.

q-fin.CP

Automated Market-Making for Fiat Currencies

We present an automated market-making (AMM) cross-settlement mechanism for digital assets on interoperable blockchains, focusing on central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and stable coins. We develop an innovative approach for generating fair exchange rates for on-chain assets consistent with traditional off-chain markets. We illustrate the efficacy of our approach on realized FX rates for G-10 currencies.

q-fin.TR

Systemic Risks in CCP Networks

We propose a model for the credit and liquidity risks faced by clearing members of Central Counterparty Clearing houses (CCPs). This model aims to capture the features of: gap risk; feedback between clearing member default, market volatility and margining requirements; the different risks faced by various types of market participant and the changes in margining requirements a clearing member faces as the system evolves. By considering the entire network of CCPs and clearing members, we investigate the distribution of losses to default fund contributions and contingent liquidity requirements for each clearing member; further, we identify wrong-way risks between defaults of clearing members and market turbulence.

q-fin.MF