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Alex Pentland

Publications and source records attributed to Alex Pentland.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

Adaptive Methods for Aggregated Domain Generalization

Domain generalization involves learning a classifier from a heterogeneous collection of training sources such that it generalizes to data drawn from similar unknown target domains, with applications in large-scale learning and personalized inference. In many settings, privacy concerns prohibit obtaining domain labels for the training data samples, and instead only have an aggregated collection of training points. Existing approaches that utilize domain labels to create domain-invariant feature representations are inapplicable in this setting, requiring alternative approaches to learn generalizable classifiers. In this paper, we propose a domain-adaptive approach to this problem, which operates in two steps: (a) we cluster training data within a carefully chosen feature space to create pseudo-domains, and (b) using these pseudo-domains we learn a domain-adaptive classifier that makes predictions using information about both the input and the pseudo-domain it belongs to. Our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance on a variety of domain generalization benchmarks without using domain labels whatsoever. Furthermore, we provide novel theoretical guarantees on domain generalization using cluster information. Our approach is amenable to ensemble-based methods and provides substantial gains even on large-scale benchmark datasets. The code can be found at: https://github.com/xavierohan/AdaClust_DomainBed

cs.LG↗

One More Step Towards Reality: Cooperative Bandits with Imperfect Communication

The cooperative bandit problem is increasingly becoming relevant due to its applications in large-scale decision-making. However, most research for this problem focuses exclusively on the setting with perfect communication, whereas in most real-world distributed settings, communication is often over stochastic networks, with arbitrary corruptions and delays. In this paper, we study cooperative bandit learning under three typical real-world communication scenarios, namely, (a) message-passing over stochastic time-varying networks, (b) instantaneous reward-sharing over a network with random delays, and (c) message-passing with adversarially corrupted rewards, including byzantine communication. For each of these environments, we propose decentralized algorithms that achieve competitive performance, along with near-optimal guarantees on the incurred group regret as well. Furthermore, in the setting with perfect communication, we present an improved delayed-update algorithm that outperforms the existing state-of-the-art on various network topologies. Finally, we present tight network-dependent minimax lower bounds on the group regret. Our proposed algorithms are straightforward to implement and obtain competitive empirical performance.

stat.ML↗

A partial knowledge of friends of friends speeds social search

Milgram empirically showed that people knowing only connections to their friends could locate any person in the U.S. in a few steps. Later research showed that social network topology enables a node aware of its full routing to find an arbitrary target in even fewer steps. Yet, the success of people in forwarding efficiently knowing only personal connections is still not fully explained. To study this problem, we emulate it on a real location-based social network, Gowalla. It provides explicit information about friends and temporal locations of each user useful for studies of human mobility. Here, we use it to conduct a massive computational experiment to establish new necessary and sufficient conditions for achieving social search efficiency. The results demonstrate that only the distribution of friendship edges and the partial knowledge of friends of friends are essential and sufficient for the efficiency of social search. Surprisingly, the efficiency of the search using the original distribution of friendship edges is not dependent on how the nodes are distributed into space. Moreover, the effect of using a limited knowledge that each node possesses about friends of its friends is strongly nonlinear. We show that gains of such use grow statistically significantly only when this knowledge is limited to a small fraction of friends of friends.

cs.SI↗

Adaptive Methods for Real-World Domain Generalization

Invariant approaches have been remarkably successful in tackling the problem of domain generalization, where the objective is to perform inference on data distributions different from those used in training. In our work, we investigate whether it is possible to leverage domain information from the unseen test samples themselves. We propose a domain-adaptive approach consisting of two steps: a) we first learn a discriminative domain embedding from unsupervised training examples, and b) use this domain embedding as supplementary information to build a domain-adaptive model, that takes both the input as well as its domain into account while making predictions. For unseen domains, our method simply uses few unlabelled test examples to construct the domain embedding. This enables adaptive classification on any unseen domain. Our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance on various domain generalization benchmarks. In addition, we introduce the first real-world, large-scale domain generalization benchmark, Geo-YFCC, containing 1.1M samples over 40 training, 7 validation, and 15 test domains, orders of magnitude larger than prior work. We show that the existing approaches either do not scale to this dataset or underperform compared to the simple baseline of training a model on the union of data from all training domains. In contrast, our approach achieves a significant improvement.

cs.CV↗

What are the key components of an entrepreneurial ecosystem in a developing economy? A longitudinal empirical study on technology business incubators in China

Since the 1980s, technology business incubators (TBIs), which focus on accelerating businesses through resource sharing, knowledge agglomeration, and technology innovation, have become a booming industry. As such, research on TBIs has gained international attention, most notably in the United States, Europe, Japan, and China. The present study proposes an entrepreneurial ecosystem framework with four key components, i.e., people, technology, capital, and infrastructure, to investigate which factors have an impact on the performance of TBIs. We also empirically examine this framework based on unique, three-year panel survey data from 857 national TBIs across China. We implemented factor analysis and panel regression models on dozens of variables from 857 national TBIs between 2015 and 2017 in all major cities in China and found that a number of factors associated with people, technology, capital, and infrastructure components have various statistically significant impacts on the performance of TBIs at either national model or regional models.

econ.GN↗

Provably Efficient Cooperative Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning with Function Approximation

Reinforcement learning in cooperative multi-agent settings has recently advanced significantly in its scope, with applications in cooperative estimation for advertising, dynamic treatment regimes, distributed control, and federated learning. In this paper, we discuss the problem of cooperative multi-agent RL with function approximation, where a group of agents communicates with each other to jointly solve an episodic MDP. We demonstrate that via careful message-passing and cooperative value iteration, it is possible to achieve near-optimal no-regret learning even with a fixed constant communication budget. Next, we demonstrate that even in heterogeneous cooperative settings, it is possible to achieve Pareto-optimal no-regret learning with limited communication. Our work generalizes several ideas from the multi-agent contextual and multi-armed bandit literature to MDPs and reinforcement learning.

cs.LG↗

Towards a Contract Service Provider Model for Virtual Assets and VASPs

We introduce the contract service provider (CSP) model as an analog of the successful Internet ISP model. Our exploration is motivated by the need to seek alternative blockchain service-fee models that departs from the token-for-operations (gas fee) model for smart contracts found on many popular blockchain platforms today. A given CSP community consisting of multiple CSP business entities (VASPs) form a contract domain which implement well-defined contract primitives, policies and contract-ledger. The nodes of the members of CSP community form the blockchain network. We discuss a number of design principles borrowed from the design principles of the Internet Architecture, and we discuss the interoperability of cross-domain (cross-chain) transfers of virtual assets in the context of contract domains.

cs.CR↗

Differentially-Private Federated Linear Bandits

The rapid proliferation of decentralized learning systems mandates the need for differentially-private cooperative learning. In this paper, we study this in context of the contextual linear bandit: we consider a collection of agents cooperating to solve a common contextual bandit, while ensuring that their communication remains private. For this problem, we devise \textsc{FedUCB}, a multiagent private algorithm for both centralized and decentralized (peer-to-peer) federated learning. We provide a rigorous technical analysis of its utility in terms of regret, improving several results in cooperative bandit learning, and provide rigorous privacy guarantees as well. Our algorithms provide competitive performance both in terms of pseudoregret bounds and empirical benchmark performance in various multi-agent settings.

cs.LG↗

Learning Quadratic Games on Networks

Individuals, or organizations, cooperate with or compete against one another in a wide range of practical situations. Such strategic interactions are often modeled as games played on networks, where an individual's payoff depends not only on her action but also on that of her neighbors. The current literature has largely focused on analyzing the characteristics of network games in the scenario where the structure of the network, which is represented by a graph, is known beforehand. It is often the case, however, that the actions of the players are readily observable while the underlying interaction network remains hidden. In this paper, we propose two novel frameworks for learning, from the observations on individual actions, network games with linear-quadratic payoffs, and in particular, the structure of the interaction network. Our frameworks are based on the Nash equilibrium of such games and involve solving a joint optimization problem for the graph structure and the individual marginal benefits. Both synthetic and real-world experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed frameworks, which have theoretical as well as practical implications for understanding strategic interactions in a network environment.

cs.GT↗

Kernel Methods for Cooperative Multi-Agent Contextual Bandits

Cooperative multi-agent decision making involves a group of agents cooperatively solving learning problems while communicating over a network with delays. In this paper, we consider the kernelised contextual bandit problem, where the reward obtained by an agent is an arbitrary linear function of the contexts' images in the related reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), and a group of agents must cooperate to collectively solve their unique decision problems. For this problem, we propose \textsc{Coop-KernelUCB}, an algorithm that provides near-optimal bounds on the per-agent regret, and is both computationally and communicatively efficient. For special cases of the cooperative problem, we also provide variants of \textsc{Coop-KernelUCB} that provides optimal per-agent regret. In addition, our algorithm generalizes several existing results in the multi-agent bandit setting. Finally, on a series of both synthetic and real-world multi-agent network benchmarks, we demonstrate that our algorithm significantly outperforms existing benchmarks.

cs.LG↗

Cooperative Multi-Agent Bandits with Heavy Tails

We study the heavy-tailed stochastic bandit problem in the cooperative multi-agent setting, where a group of agents interact with a common bandit problem, while communicating on a network with delays. Existing algorithms for the stochastic bandit in this setting utilize confidence intervals arising from an averaging-based communication protocol known as~\textit{running consensus}, that does not lend itself to robust estimation for heavy-tailed settings. We propose \textsc{MP-UCB}, a decentralized multi-agent algorithm for the cooperative stochastic bandit that incorporates robust estimation with a message-passing protocol. We prove optimal regret bounds for \textsc{MP-UCB} for several problem settings, and also demonstrate its superiority to existing methods. Furthermore, we establish the first lower bounds for the cooperative bandit problem, in addition to providing efficient algorithms for robust bandit estimation of location.

cs.LG↗

Social Learning and the Accuracy-Risk Trade-off in the Wisdom of the Crowd

How do we design and deploy crowdsourced prediction platforms for real-world applications where risk is an important dimension of prediction performance? To answer this question, we conducted a large online Wisdom of the Crowd study where participants predicted the prices of real financial assets (e.g. S&P 500). We observe a Pareto frontier between accuracy of prediction and risk, and find that this trade-off is mediated by social learning i.e. as social learning is increasingly leveraged, it leads to lower accuracy but also lower risk. We also observe that social learning leads to superior accuracy during one of our rounds that occurred during the high market uncertainty of the Brexit vote. Our results have implications for the design of crowdsourced prediction platforms: for example, they suggest that the performance of the crowd should be more comprehensively characterized by using both accuracy and risk (as is standard in financial and statistical forecasting), in contrast to prior work where risk of prediction has been overlooked.

stat.AP↗

Interpretable Stochastic Block Influence Model: measuring social influence among homophilous communities

Decision-making on networks can be explained by both homophily and social influence. While homophily drives the formation of communities with similar characteristics, social influence occurs both within and between communities. Social influence can be reasoned through role theory, which indicates that the influences among individuals depend on their roles and the behavior of interest. To operationalize these social science theories, we empirically identify the homophilous communities and use the community structures to capture the "roles", which affect the particular decision-making processes. We propose a generative model named Stochastic Block Influence Model and jointly analyze both the network formation and the behavioral influence within and between different empirically-identified communities. To evaluate the performance and demonstrate the interpretability of our method, we study the adoption decisions of microfinance in an Indian village. We show that although individuals tend to form links within communities, there are strong positive and negative social influences between communities, supporting the weak tie theory. Moreover, we find that communities with shared characteristics are associated with positive influence. In contrast, the communities with a lack of overlap are associated with negative influence. Our framework facilitates the quantification of the influences underlying decision communities and is thus a useful tool for driving information diffusion, viral marketing, and technology adoptions.

cs.SI↗

Wallet Attestations for Virtual Asset Service Providers and Crypto-Assets Insurance

The emerging virtual asset service providers (VASP) industry currently faces a number of challenges related to the Travel Rule, notably pertaining to customer personal information, account number and cryptographic key information. VASPs will be handling virtual assets of different forms, where each may be bound to different private-public key pairs on the blockchain. As such, VASPs also face the additional problem of the management of its own keys and the management of customer keys that may reside in a customer wallet. The use of attestation technologies as applied to wallet systems may provide VASPs with suitable evidence relevant to the Travel Rule regarding cryptographic key information and their operational state. Additionally, wallet attestations may provide crypto-asset insurers with strong evidence regarding the key management aspects of a wallet device, thereby providing the insurance industry with measurable levels of assurance that can become the basis for insurers to perform risk assessment on crypto-assets bound to keys in wallets, both enterprise-grade wallets and consumer-grade wallets.

cs.CR↗

The Wisdom of the Network: How Adaptive Networks Promote Collective Intelligence

Social networks continuously change as new ties are created and existing ones fade. It is widely noted that our social embedding exerts a strong influence on what information we receive and how we form beliefs and make decisions. However, most empirical studies on the role of social networks in collective intelligence have overlooked the dynamic nature of social networks and its role in fostering adaptive collective intelligence. It remains unknown (1) how network structures adapt to the attributes of individuals, and (2) whether this adaptation promotes the accuracy of individual and collective decisions. Here, we answer these questions through a series of behavioral experiments and supporting simulations. Our results reveal that social network plasticity in the presence of feedback, can adapt to biased and changing information environments, and produce collective estimates that are more accurate than their best-performing member. We explore two mechanisms that explain these results: (1) a global adaptation mechanism where the structural connectivity of the network itself changes such that it amplifies the estimates of high-performing members within the group; (2) a local adaptation mechanism where accurate individuals are more resistant to social influence, and therefore their initial belief is weighted in the collective estimate disproportionately. Thereby, our findings substantiate the role of social network plasticity and feedback as adaptive mechanisms for refining individual and collective judgments.

cs.SI↗

Analysis of misinformation during the COVID-19 outbreak in China: cultural, social and political entanglements

COVID-19 resulted in an infodemic, which could erode public trust, impede virus containment, and outlive the pandemic itself. The evolving and fragmented media landscape is a key driver of the spread of misinformation. Using misinformation identified by the fact-checking platform by Tencent and posts on Weibo, our results showed that the evolution of misinformation follows an issue-attention cycle, pertaining to topics such as city lockdown, cures, and preventions, and school reopening. Sources of authority weigh in on these topics, but their influence is complicated by peoples' pre-existing beliefs and cultural practices. Finally, social media has a complicated relationship with established or legacy media systems. Sometimes they reinforce each other, but in general, social media may have a topic cycle of its own making. Our findings shed light on the distinct characteristics of misinformation during the COVID-19 and offer insights into combating misinformation in China and across the world at large.

cs.SI↗

Segregated interactions in urban and online space

Urban income segregation is a widespread phenomenon that challenges societies across the globe. Classical studies on segregation have largely focused on the geographic distribution of residential neighborhoods rather than on patterns of social behaviors and interactions. In this study, we analyze segregation in economic and social interactions by observing credit card transactions and Twitter mentions among thousands of individuals in three culturally different metropolitan areas. We show that segregated interaction is amplified relative to the expected effects of geographic segregation in terms of both purchase activity and online communication. Furthermore, we find that segregation increases with difference in socio-economic status but is asymmetric for purchase activity, i.e., the amount of interaction from poorer to wealthier neighborhoods is larger than vice versa. Our results provide novel insights into the understanding of behavioral segregation in human interactions with significant socio-political and economic implications.

cs.SI↗

ERC20 Transactions over Ethereum Blockchain: Network Analysis and Predictions

Following the birth of Bitcoin and the introduction of the Ethereum ERC20 protocol a decade ago, recent years have witnessed a growing number of cryptographic tokens that are being introduced by researchers, private sector companies and NGOs. The ubiquitous of such Blockchain based cryptocurrencies give birth to a new kind of rising economy, which presents great difficulties to modeling its dynamics using conventional semantic properties. Our work presents the analysis of the dynamical properties of the ERC20 protocol compliant crypto-coins' trading data using a network theory prism. We examine the dynamics of ERC20 based networks over time by analyzing a meta-parameter of the network, the power of its degree distribution. Our analysis demonstrates that this parameter can be modeled as an under-damped harmonic oscillator over time, enabling a year forward of network parameters predictions.

physics.soc-ph↗