Alexander C. Furnas | Searcharxiv

arXiv2026

The Rise of Large Language Models and the Direction and Impact of US Federal Research Funding

Federal research funding shapes the direction, diversity, and impact of the US scientific enterprise. Large language models (LLMs) are rapidly diffusing into scientific practice, holding substantial promise while raising widespread concerns. Despite growing attention to AI use in scientific writing and evaluation, little is known about how the rise of LLMs is reshaping the public funding landscape. Here, we examine LLM involvement at key stages of the federal funding pipeline by combining two complementary data sources: confidential National Science Foundation (NSF) and National Institutes of Health (NIH) proposal submissions from two large US R1 universities, including funded, unfunded, and pending proposals, and the full population of publicly released NSF and NIH awards. We find that LLM use rises sharply beginning in 2023 and exhibits a bimodal distribution, indicating a clear split between minimal and substantive use. Across both private submissions and public awards, higher LLM involvement is consistently associated with lower semantic distinctiveness, positioning projects closer to recently funded work within the same agency. The consequences of this shift are agency-dependent. LLM use is positively associated with proposal success and higher early-stage publication output at NIH, whereas no comparable associations are observed at NSF. Notably, the productivity gains at NIH are concentrated in non-hit papers rather than the most highly cited work. Together, these findings provide large-scale evidence that the rise of LLMs is reshaping how scientific ideas are positioned, selected, and translated into publicly funded research, with implications for portfolio governance, research diversity, and the long-run impact of science.

cs.DL↗

arXiv2026

Sci2Pol: Evaluating and Fine-tuning LLMs on Scientific-to-Policy Brief Generation

We propose Sci2Pol-Bench and Sci2Pol-Corpus, the first benchmark and training dataset for evaluating and fine-tuning large language models (LLMs) on policy brief generation from a scientific paper. We build Sci2Pol-Bench on a five-stage taxonomy to mirror the human writing process: (i) Autocompletion, (ii) Understanding, (iii) Summarization, (iv) Generation, and (v) Verification. It features 18 tasks in multiple-choice and open-ended formats. Specifically, for the Generation stage, we show that BERTScore and ROUGE scores fail to capture the quality of brief writing, and introduce a new LLM-based evaluation metric aligned with expert judgement. Using this benchmark, we evaluate 13 leading open-source and commercial LLMs to uncover key limitations. To improve LLM performance on brief writing, we curate the Sci2Pol-Corpus for fine-tuning. We start by linking each cited scientific paper to its corresponding policy document, drawn from 5.6 million policy records. This produces 140,000 candidate pairs. We then employ an LLM-as-a-judge to filter high-quality examples, followed by in-context polishing using three expert-written samples as references. This process yields a final set of 639 new pairs. Finally, we fine-tune three models on Sci2Pol-Corpus: LLaMA-3.18B, Gemma-12B, and Gemma-27B. Fine-tuning leads to consistent performance improvements across Sci2Pol-Bench. Notably, after fine-tuning, Gemma-27B surpasses the much larger GPT-4o and DeepSeek-V3 (671B). These demonstrate the effectiveness of our corpus in bridging the gap between science and policy.

cs.CE↗