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Alexander D'Amour

Publications and source records attributed to Alexander D'Amour.

38 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

Reducing Reparameterization Gradient Variance

Optimization with noisy gradients has become ubiquitous in statistics and machine learning. Reparameterization gradients, or gradient estimates computed via the "reparameterization trick," represent a class of noisy gradients often used in Monte Carlo variational inference (MCVI). However, when these gradient estimators are too noisy, the optimization procedure can be slow or fail to converge. One way to reduce noise is to use more samples for the gradient estimate, but this can be computationally expensive. Instead, we view the noisy gradient as a random variable, and form an inexpensive approximation of the generating procedure for the gradient sample. This approximation has high correlation with the noisy gradient by construction, making it a useful control variate for variance reduction. We demonstrate our approach on non-conjugate multi-level hierarchical models and a Bayesian neural net where we observed gradient variance reductions of multiple orders of magnitude (20-2,000x).

stat.ML↗

Meta-Analytics: Tools for Understanding the Statistical Properties of Sports Metrics

In sports, there is a constant effort to improve metrics which assess player ability, but there has been almost no effort to quantify and compare existing metrics. Any individual making a management, coaching, or gambling decision is quickly overwhelmed with hundreds of statistics. We address this problem by proposing a set of "meta-metrics" which can be used to identify the metrics that provide the most unique, reliable, and useful information for decision-makers. Specifically, we develop methods to evalute metrics based on three criteria: 1) stability: does the metric measure the same thing over time 2) discrimination: does the metric differentiate between players and 3) independence: does the metric provide new information? Our methods are easy to implement and widely applicable so they should be of interest to the broader sports community. We demonstrate our methods in analyses of both NBA and NHL metrics. Our results indicate the most reliable metrics and highlight how they should be used by sports analysts. The meta-metrics also provide useful insights about how to best construct new metrics which provide independent and reliable information about athletes.

stat.AP↗