arXiv subjects

Alexander Gutfraind

Publications and source records attributed to Alexander Gutfraind.

21 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2009

Markovian Network Interdiction and the Four Color Theorem

The Unreactive Markovian Evader Interdiction Problem (UME) asks to optimally place sensors on a network to detect Markovian motion by one or more "evaders". It was previously proved that finding the optimal sensor placement is NP-hard if the number of evaders is unbounded. Here we show that the problem is NP-hard with just 2 evaders using a connection to coloring of planar graphs. The results suggest that approximation algorithms are needed even in applications where the number of evaders is small. It remains an open problem to determine the complexity of the 1-evader case or to devise efficient algorithms.

cs.DM↗

arXiv2009

Optimal Interdiction of Unreactive Markovian Evaders

The interdiction problem arises in a variety of areas including military logistics, infectious disease control, and counter-terrorism. In the typical formulation of network interdiction, the task of the interdictor is to find a set of edges in a weighted network such that the removal of those edges would maximally increase the cost to an evader of traveling on a path through the network. Our work is motivated by cases in which the evader has incomplete information about the network or lacks planning time or computational power, e.g. when authorities set up roadblocks to catch bank robbers, the criminals do not know all the roadblock locations or the best path to use for their escape. We introduce a model of network interdiction in which the motion of one or more evaders is described by Markov processes and the evaders are assumed not to react to interdiction decisions. The interdiction objective is to find an edge set of size B, that maximizes the probability of capturing the evaders. We prove that similar to the standard least-cost formulation for deterministic motion this interdiction problem is also NP-hard. But unlike that problem our interdiction problem is submodular and the optimal solution can be approximated within 1-1/e using a greedy algorithm. Additionally, we exploit submodularity through a priority evaluation strategy that eliminates the linear complexity scaling in the number of network edges and speeds up the solution by orders of magnitude. Taken together the results bring closer the goal of finding realistic solutions to the interdiction problem on global-scale networks.

cs.DM↗

arXiv2009

Understanding Terrorist Organizations with a Dynamic Model

Terrorist organizations change over time because of processes such as recruitment and training as well as counter-terrorism (CT) measures, but the effects of these processes are typically studied qualitatively and in separation from each other. Seeking a more quantitative and integrated understanding, we constructed a simple dynamic model where equations describe how these processes change an organization's membership. Analysis of the model yields a number of intuitive as well as novel findings. Most importantly it becomes possible to predict whether counter-terrorism measures would be sufficient to defeat the organization. Furthermore, we can prove in general that an organization would collapse if its strength and its pool of foot soldiers decline simultaneously. In contrast, a simultaneous decline in its strength and its pool of leaders is often insufficient and short-termed. These results and other like them demonstrate the great potential of dynamic models for informing terrorism scholarship and counter-terrorism policy making.

math.DS↗