arXiv subjects

Alexander Johannes Stasik

Publications and source records attributed to Alexander Johannes Stasik.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

A Quantum Encoding of Traveling Salesperson Tours via Route Generation, Cost Phases, and a Reversible Valid-Permutation Oracle

For a traveling salesperson problem (TSP) of $n$ cities, we present a compact quantum encoding based on a time-register representation of tours. A candidate route is represented as a sequence of $n-1$ city labels over discrete time steps, with one fixed start city and the remaining cities encoded in binary registers. We describe three ingredients of the construction: uniform route generation over the route register, a reversible validity oracle, and a phase oracle that encodes the total tour cost. The validity oracle checks both that the non-start city labels form a permutation and, for incomplete graphs, that every directed edge used by the route exists. The cost oracle then accumulates the start-edge, intermediate-transition, and return-edge costs into a tour-dependent phase for valid routes. This yields a coherent superposition of candidate routes with feasibility and tour-length information embedded directly in the quantum state. The complete construction uses $\mathcal{O}(n\log n)$ qubits, while a naive implementation requires $\mathcal{O}(n^3\log_2 n)$ CX gates and $\mathcal{O}\!\left(n^3[\log_2 n+\log_2(1/ε)]\right)$ $T$ gates, where $ε$ denotes the target approximation precision. The encoding is compatible with amplitude amplification or spectral filtering techniques such as the quantum singular value transform (QSVT) or Grover's algorithm. However, due to the exponentially small fraction of valid tours, the overall complexity remains exponential even when combined with amplitude amplification.

quant-ph↗

arXiv2026

Virtual Temperature Sensors in Power Transformers Using Neural Ordinary Differential Equations

Accurate modeling and forecasting of power transformer thermal behavior are critical for reliability, asset lifetime, and optimized power system operation. Numerical approaches such as finite element methods (FEM) and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) offer high fidelity but are computationally expensive, require complex mesh generation, and are often impractical for real-time or large-scale applications, particularly when transformer geometries are unknown. Lumped-parameter thermal models are more practical but depend on transformer-specific thermal constants and may fail to capture dynamic responses under varying operating and environmental conditions. Purely data-driven machine learning methods, including artificial neural networks, convolutional neural networks, and long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, have shown success in forecasting transformer temperatures but typically require large volumes of high-quality training data and may produce physically inconsistent or uninterpretable results. This paper develops a physics-aware Neural Ordinary Differential Equation (Neural ODE) framework for forecasting transformer thermal behavior from real-world time-series data. Neural ODEs model system dynamics in continuous time, providing smooth trajectory prediction and a natural representation of continuously evolving thermal dynamics. A key contribution is the integration of simplified heat-transfer equations directly into the Neural ODE formulation. The model is evaluated across datasets from fifteen transformers in different regions of Norway with varying designs and cooling mechanisms. The results demonstrate that the developed Neural ODE framework provides a standardized, physics-aware, and robust forecasting approach for heterogeneous transformer units.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Learning partially observed systems with neural Hamiltonian ordinary differential equations

When learning dynamical systems from data, embedding physical structure can constrain the solution space and improve generalization, but many physics-informed models assume access to the full system state. This limits their use in partially observed settings, where some state variables are completely unobserved and must be inferred without direct supervision. Here, we present neural Hamiltonian ordinary differential equations (NHODE), a framework that combines Hamiltonian neural networks (HNNs) with neural ordinary differential equations (neural ODEs) to learn partially observed dynamical systems from data. The Hamiltonian structure enforces energy conservation by construction, while the neural ODE framework enables a flexible training procedure that allows the loss to be defined only on observed variables. We also incorporate additional physical constraints through symmetry-aware coordinate transformations and separable energy formulations. The framework is evaluated on systems of increasing complexity, from linear and nonlinear mass-spring systems to the chaotic three-body problem. Across all examples, increasing the amount of embedded physical structure improves the accuracy and long-horizon stability of the predictions. Even in the most challenging regimes, the NHODE framework captures both observed and latent dynamics, whereas purely data-driven baselines become unstable.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Fast Bayesian equipment condition monitoring via simulation based inference: applications to heat exchanger health

Accurate condition monitoring of industrial equipment requires inferring latent degradation parameters from indirect sensor measurements under uncertainty. While traditional Bayesian methods like Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) provide rigorous uncertainty quantification, their heavy computational bottlenecks render them impractical for real-time process control. To overcome this limitation, we propose an AI-driven framework utilizing Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) powered by amortized neural posterior estimation to diagnose complex failure modes in heat exchangers. By training neural density estimators on a simulated dataset, our approach learns a direct, likelihood-free mapping from thermal-fluid observations to the full posterior distribution of degradation parameters. We benchmark this framework against an MCMC baseline across various synthetic fouling and leakage scenarios, including challenging low-probability, sparse-event failures. The results show that SBI achieves comparable diagnostic accuracy and reliable uncertainty quantification, while accelerating inference time by a factor of82$\times$ compared to traditional sampling. The amortized nature of the neural network enables near-instantaneous inference, establishing SBI as a highly scalable, real-time alternative for probabilistic fault diagnosis and digital twin realization in complex engineering systems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Unreliable Uncertainty Estimates with Monte Carlo Dropout

Reliable uncertainty estimation is crucial for machine learning models, especially in safety-critical domains. While exact Bayesian inference offers a principled approach, it is often computationally infeasible for deep neural networks. Monte Carlo dropout (MCD) was proposed as an efficient approximation to Bayesian inference in deep learning by applying neuron dropout at inference time \citep{gal2016dropout}. Hence, the method generates multiple sub-models yielding a distribution of predictions to estimate uncertainty. We empirically investigate its ability to capture true uncertainty and compare to Gaussian Processes (GP) and Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN). We find that MCD struggles to accurately reflect the underlying true uncertainty, particularly failing to capture increased uncertainty in extrapolation and interpolation regions as observed in Bayesian models. The findings suggest that uncertainty estimates from MCD, as implemented and evaluated in these experiments, is not as reliable as those from traditional Bayesian approaches for capturing epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty.

cs.LG↗