arXiv subjects

Alexander Marusov

Publications and source records attributed to Alexander Marusov.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

CLaST: Context-aware Contrastive VAE for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting

Probabilistic forecasting models are widely used for time series forecasting in domains such as energy systems, finance, medicine, and transportation. In recent years, deep generative models have shown strong results on probabilistic forecasting, yet many conventional approaches struggle to capture internal temporal dependencies, leading to latent representations with limited expressive power. To address this limitation, we propose \textit{CLaST}, a VAE framework for probabilistic multivariate time series forecasting. Unlike existing generative models, CLaST learns embeddings that preserve contextual similarity between observations through our contrastive loss function. Experiments across nine widely adopted benchmarks demonstrate that CLaST consistently surpasses strong baseline methods. In short-term forecasting tasks, our approach achieves improvements of up to $16.4\%$ in CRPS and $14.4\%$ in NMAE over the second-best method. Furthermore, in long-term prediction CLaST attains superior overall performance, exceeding the second-best method by up to $48.6\%$ and $25.1\%$ in CRPS and NMAE, respectively.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

DecoVAE: a Lightweight Interpretable Trend-Seasonal VAE Framework for Efficient Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting

Probabilistic time series forecasting remains challenging, largely because modeling distinct trend and seasonal dynamics requires specialized approaches. Existing methods often fail to capture the unique inner properties of these components, lack interpretability, or suffer from heavy memory and runtime overhead. To address these limitations, we propose DecoVAE, a lightweight interpretable trend-seasonal VAE framework that explicitly decomposes time series into trend and seasonal components by applying domain-specific inductive biases. The trend stream enforces structural smoothness using a differential regularizer on the latent trajectory, analogous to the Hodrick-Prescott filter. Concurrently, the seasonal stream operates in the frequency domain via a complex Gaussian VAE, natively capturing the amplitude and phase of periodic patterns. Extensive evaluations across seven real-world benchmarks show that DecoVAE consistently outperforms strong baselines. It achieves reductions of up to 14.96\% in CRPS and 23.30\% in NMAE for short-term forecasting, and up to 52.68\% and 26.51\% for long-term horizons. Crucially, DecoVAE yields these accuracy gains while remaining highly efficient, reducing model weight by up to 93\% and accelerating speed by up to 74\% compared to the second-best method.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

U-Former ODE: Fast Probabilistic Forecasting of Irregular Time Series

Probabilistic forecasting of irregularly sampled time series is crucial in domains such as healthcare and finance, yet it remains a formidable challenge. Existing Neural Controlled Differential Equation (Neural CDE) approaches, while effective at modelling continuous dynamics, suffer from slow, inherently sequential computation, which restricts scalability and limits access to global context. We introduce UFO (U-Former ODE), a novel architecture that seamlessly integrates the parallelizable, multiscale feature extraction of U-Nets, the powerful global modelling of Transformers, and the continuous-time dynamics of Neural CDEs. By constructing a fully causal, parallelizable model, UFO achieves a global receptive field while retaining strong sensitivity to local temporal dynamics. Extensive experiments on five standard benchmarks -- covering both regularly and irregularly sampled time series -- demonstrate that UFO consistently outperforms ten state-of-the-art neural baselines in predictive accuracy. Moreover, UFO delivers up to 15$\times$ faster inference compared to conventional Neural CDEs, with consistently strong performance on long and highly multivariate sequences.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

A theoretical framework for self-supervised contrastive learning for continuous dependent data

Self-supervised learning (SSL) has emerged as a powerful approach to learning representations, particularly in the field of computer vision. However, its application to dependent data, such as temporal and spatio-temporal domains, remains underexplored. Besides, traditional contrastive SSL methods often assume \emph{semantic independence between samples}, which does not hold for dependent data exhibiting complex correlations. We propose a novel theoretical framework for contrastive SSL tailored to \emph{continuous dependent data}, which allows the nearest samples to be semantically close to each other. In particular, we propose two possible \textit{ground truth similarity measures} between objects -- \emph{hard} and \emph{soft} closeness. Under it, we derive an analytical form for the \textit{estimated similarity matrix} that accommodates both types of closeness between samples, thereby introducing dependency-aware loss functions. We validate our approach, \emph{Dependent TS2Vec}, on temporal and spatio-temporal downstream problems. Given the dependency patterns presented in the data, our approach surpasses modern ones for dependent data, highlighting the effectiveness of our theoretically grounded loss functions for SSL in capturing spatio-temporal dependencies. Specifically, we outperform TS2Vec on the standard UEA and UCR benchmarks, with accuracy improvements of $4.17$\% and $2.08$\%, respectively. Furthermore, on the drought classification task, which involves complex spatio-temporal patterns, our method achieves a $7$\% higher ROC-AUC score.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Long-term drought prediction using deep neural networks based on geospatial weather data

The problem of high-quality drought forecasting up to a year in advance is critical for agriculture planning and insurance. Yet, it is still unsolved with reasonable accuracy due to data complexity and aridity stochasticity. We tackle drought data by introducing an end-to-end approach that adopts a spatio-temporal neural network model with accessible open monthly climate data as the input. Our systematic research employs diverse proposed models and five distinct environmental regions as a testbed to evaluate the efficacy of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) prediction. Key aggregated findings are the exceptional performance of a Transformer model, EarthFormer, in making accurate short-term (up to six months) forecasts. At the same time, the Convolutional LSTM excels in longer-term forecasting.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Non-contrastive representation learning for intervals from well logs

The representation learning problem in the oil & gas industry aims to construct a model that provides a representation based on logging data for a well interval. Previous attempts are mainly supervised and focus on similarity task, which estimates closeness between intervals. We desire to build informative representations without using supervised (labelled) data. One of the possible approaches is self-supervised learning (SSL). In contrast to the supervised paradigm, this one requires little or no labels for the data. Nowadays, most SSL approaches are either contrastive or non-contrastive. Contrastive methods make representations of similar (positive) objects closer and distancing different (negative) ones. Due to possible wrong marking of positive and negative pairs, these methods can provide an inferior performance. Non-contrastive methods don't rely on such labelling and are widespread in computer vision. They learn using only pairs of similar objects that are easier to identify in logging data. We are the first to introduce non-contrastive SSL for well-logging data. In particular, we exploit Bootstrap Your Own Latent (BYOL) and Barlow Twins methods that avoid using negative pairs and focus only on matching positive pairs. The crucial part of these methods is an augmentation strategy. Our augmentation strategies and adaption of BYOL and Barlow Twins together allow us to achieve superior quality on clusterization and mostly the best performance on different classification tasks. Our results prove the usefulness of the proposed non-contrastive self-supervised approaches for representation learning and interval similarity in particular.

cs.AI↗