arXiv subjects

Alexander S. Wein

Publications and source records attributed to Alexander S. Wein.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Stochastic block models with many communities and the Kesten--Stigum bound

We study the inference of communities in stochastic block models with a growing number of communities. For block models with $n$ vertices and a fixed number of communities $q$, it was predicted in Decelle et al. (2011) that there are computationally efficient algorithms for recovering the communities above the Kesten--Stigum (KS) bound and that efficient recovery is impossible below the KS bound. This conjecture has since stimulated a lot of interest, with the achievability side proven in a line of research that culminated in the work of Abbe and Sandon (2018). Conversely, recent work by Sohn and Wein (2025) provides evidence for the hardness part using the low-degree paradigm. In this paper we investigate community recovery in the regime $q=q_n \to \infty$ as $n\to\infty$ where no such predictions exist. We show that efficient inference of communities remains possible above the KS bound. Furthermore, we show that recovery of block models is low-degree hard below the KS bound when the number of communities satisfies $q\ll \sqrt{n}$. Perhaps surprisingly, we find that when $q \gg \sqrt{n}$, there is an efficient algorithm based on non-backtracking walks for recovery even below the KS bound. We identify a new threshold and ask if it is the threshold for efficient recovery in this regime. Finally, we show that detection is easy and identify (up to a constant) the information-theoretic threshold for community recovery as the number of communities $q$ diverges. Our low-degree hardness results also naturally have consequences for graphon estimation, improving results of Luo and Gao (2024).

math.PR↗

arXiv2026

Beyond Frequency Marching: Orbit Recovery in Dihedral and Projected Multireference Alignment

Multireference alignment (MRA) is the task of recovering a hidden "signal" vector, given many noisy copies that have been cyclically shifted by unknown offsets. This task belongs to the class of orbit recovery problems, in which the observed samples are affected by some group action. These problems have a variety of practical motivations, including the reconstruction of 3-dimensional molecular structure from cryogenic electron microscopy (cryo-EM) images. We consider two variants of MRA: dihedral MRA, where the cyclic group is replaced by the dihedral group, allowing for reversals of the vector in addition to shifts; and projected MRA, where the observations are passed through a projection operator akin to the tomographic projection present in cryo-EM. We apply the method of moments and aim to recover the signal from the third moment tensor of the samples. This inverse problem is well understood for basic MRA, but for the variants we consider there is no polynomial-time algorithm known to succeed for generic signals. We give the first such algorithm for both of these variants. Our method requires the signal length to be a power of two, and recursively subdivides the problem into smaller problems of half the size. The algorithm's success for generic signals is proven, conditional on a conjecture about the rank of a certain symbolic matrix of polynomials. For any given problem size, this conjecture can be verified on a computer.

cs.DS↗

arXiv2026

Sharp Low-Degree Thresholds for Planted-vs-Planted Testing

We establish the first sharp thresholds for low-degree polynomial tests in planted-vs-planted settings, where the goal is to determine with vanishing error which of two structured planted mechanisms generated the observed data. We prove matching low-degree upper and lower bounds for counting communities in the planted submatrix and planted dense subgraph models. The resulting testing threshold coincides, down to the sharp constant, with the known low-degree recovery threshold. In contrast, the task of weak testing, where the goal is to outperform random guessing, does not have a sharp threshold but rather a smooth transition, which we identify. To prove our results, we develop a framework for planted-vs-planted testing that builds on a latent-variable expansion originating in low-degree recovery and employs new methods to identify and prune non-signal contributions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Sharp Phase Transitions in Estimation with Low-Degree Polynomials

High-dimensional planted problems, such as finding a hidden dense subgraph within a random graph, often exhibit a gap between statistical and computational feasibility. While recovering the hidden structure may be statistically possible, it is conjectured to be computationally intractable in certain parameter regimes. A powerful approach to understanding this hardness involves proving lower bounds on the efficacy of low-degree polynomial algorithms. We introduce new techniques for establishing such lower bounds, leading to novel results across diverse settings: planted submatrix, planted dense subgraph, the spiked Wigner model, and the stochastic block model. Notably, our results address the estimation task -- whereas most prior work is limited to hypothesis testing -- and capture sharp phase transitions such as the "BBP" transition in the spiked Wigner model (named for Baik, Ben Arous, and Péché) and the Kesten-Stigum threshold in the stochastic block model. Existing work on estimation either falls short of achieving these sharp thresholds or is limited to polynomials of very low (constant or logarithmic) degree. In contrast, our results rule out estimation with polynomials of degree $n^δ$ where $n$ is the dimension and $δ> 0$ is a constant, and in some cases we pin down the optimal constant $δ$. Our work resolves open problems posed by Hopkins & Steurer (2017) and Schramm & Wein (2022), and provides rigorous support within the low-degree framework for conjectures by Abbe & Sandon (2018) and Lelarge & Miolane (2019).

math.ST↗

arXiv2025

Overcomplete Tensor Decomposition via Koszul-Young Flattenings

Motivated by connections between algebraic complexity lower bounds and tensor decompositions, we investigate Koszul-Young flattenings, which are the main ingredient in recent lower bounds for matrix multiplication. Based on this tool we give a new algorithm for decomposing an $n_1 \times n_2 \times n_3$ tensor as the sum of a minimal number of rank-1 terms, and certifying uniqueness of this decomposition. For $n_1 \le n_2 \le n_3$ with $n_1 \to \infty$ and $n_3/n_2 = O(1)$, our algorithm is guaranteed to succeed when the tensor rank is bounded by $r \le (1-ε)(n_2 + n_3)$ for an arbitrary $ε> 0$, provided the tensor components are generically chosen. For any fixed $ε$, the runtime is polynomial in $n_3$. When $n_2 = n_3 = n$, our condition on the rank gives a factor-of-2 improvement over the classical simultaneous diagonalization algorithm, which requires $r \le n$, and also improves on the recent algorithm of Koiran (2024) which requires $r \le 4n/3$. It also improves on the PhD thesis of Persu (2018) which solves rank detection for $r \leq 3n/2$. We complement our upper bounds by showing limitations, in particular that no flattening of the style we consider can surpass rank $n_2 + n_3$. Furthermore, for $n \times n \times n$ tensors, we show that an even more general class of degree-$d$ polynomial flattenings cannot surpass rank $Cn$ for a constant $C = C(d)$. This suggests that for tensor decompositions, the case of generic components may be fundamentally harder than that of random components, where efficient decomposition is possible even in highly overcomplete settings.

cs.DS↗

arXiv2025

The Kikuchi Hierarchy and Tensor PCA

For the tensor PCA (principal component analysis) problem, we propose a new hierarchy of increasingly powerful algorithms with increasing runtime. Our hierarchy is analogous to the sum-of-squares (SOS) hierarchy but is instead inspired by statistical physics and related algorithms such as belief propagation and AMP (approximate message passing). Our level-$\ell$ algorithm can be thought of as a linearized message-passing algorithm that keeps track of $\ell$-wise dependencies among the hidden variables. Specifically, our algorithms are spectral methods based on the Kikuchi Hessian, which generalizes the well-studied Bethe Hessian to the higher-order Kikuchi free energies. It is known that AMP, the flagship algorithm of statistical physics, has substantially worse performance than SOS for tensor PCA. In this work we 'redeem' the statistical physics approach by showing that our hierarchy gives a polynomial-time algorithm matching the performance of SOS. Our hierarchy also yields a continuum of subexponential-time algorithms, and we prove that these achieve the same (conjecturally optimal) tradeoff between runtime and statistical power as SOS. Our proofs are much simpler than prior work, and also apply to the related problem of refuting random $k$-XOR formulas. The results we present here apply to tensor PCA for tensors of all orders, and to $k$-XOR when $k$ is even. Our methods suggest a new avenue for systematically obtaining optimal algorithms for Bayesian inference problems, and our results constitute a step toward unifying the statistical physics and sum-of-squares approaches to algorithm design.

cs.DS↗

arXiv2025

Is it easier to count communities than find them?

Random graph models with community structure have been studied extensively in the literature. For both the problems of detecting and recovering community structure, an interesting landscape of statistical and computational phase transitions has emerged. A natural unanswered question is: might it be possible to infer properties of the community structure (for instance, the number and sizes of communities) even in situations where actually finding those communities is believed to be computationally hard? We show the answer is no. In particular, we consider certain hypothesis testing problems between models with different community structures, and we show (in the low-degree polynomial framework) that testing between two options is as hard as finding the communities. Our methods give the first computational lower bounds for testing between two different ``planted'' distributions, whereas previous results have considered testing between a planted distribution and an i.i.d. ``null'' distribution. We also show a formal relationship between the low--degree frameworks for recovery in a planted model and for testing two planted models.

math.ST↗

arXiv2025

Computational Complexity of Statistics: New Insights from Low-Degree Polynomials

This is a survey on the use of low-degree polynomials to predict and explain the apparent statistical-computational tradeoffs in a variety of average-case computational problems. In a nutshell, this framework measures the complexity of a statistical task by the minimum degree that a polynomial function must have in order to solve it. The main goals of this survey are to (1) describe the types of problems where the low-degree framework can be applied, encompassing questions of detection (hypothesis testing), recovery (estimation), and more; (2) discuss some philosophical questions surrounding the interpretation of low-degree lower bounds, and notably the extent to which they should be treated as evidence for inherent computational hardness; (3) explore the known connections between low-degree polynomials and other related approaches such as the sum-of-squares hierarchy and statistical query model; and (4) give an overview of the mathematical tools used to prove low-degree lower bounds. A list of open problems is also included.

math.ST↗

arXiv2025

Improving the Threshold for Finding Rank-1 Matrices in a Subspace

We consider a basic computational task of finding $s$ planted rank-1 $m \times n$ matrices in a linear subspace $\mathcal{U} \subseteq \mathbb{R}^{m \times n}$ where $\dim(\mathcal{U}) = R \ge s$. The work of Johnston-Lovitz-Vijayaraghavan (FOCS 2023) gave a polynomial-time algorithm for this task and proved that it succeeds when ${R \le (1-o(1))mn/4}$, under minimal genericity assumptions on the input. Aiming to precisely characterize the performance of this algorithm, we improve the bound to ${R \le (1-o(1))mn/2}$ and also prove that the algorithm fails when ${R \ge (1+o(1))mn/\sqrt{2}}$. Numerical experiments indicate that the true breaking point is $R = (1+o(1))mn/\sqrt{2}$. Our work implies new algorithmic results for tensor decomposition, for instance, decomposing order-4 tensors with twice as many components as before.

cs.DS↗

arXiv2025

Precise Error Rates for Computationally Efficient Testing

We revisit the fundamental question of simple-versus-simple hypothesis testing with an eye towards computational complexity, as the statistically optimal likelihood ratio test is often computationally intractable in high-dimensional settings. In the classical spiked Wigner model with a general i.i.d. spike prior we show (conditional on a conjecture) that an existing test based on linear spectral statistics achieves the best possible tradeoff curve between type I and type II error rates among all computationally efficient tests, even though there are exponential-time tests that do better. This result is conditional on an appropriate complexity-theoretic conjecture, namely a natural strengthening of the well-established low-degree conjecture. Our result shows that the spectrum is a sufficient statistic for computationally bounded tests (but not for all tests). To our knowledge, our approach gives the first tool for reasoning about the precise asymptotic testing error achievable with efficient computation. The main ingredients required for our hardness result are a sharp bound on the norm of the low-degree likelihood ratio along with (counterintuitively) a positive result on achievability of testing. This strategy appears to be new even in the setting of unbounded computation, in which case it gives an alternate way to analyze the fundamental statistical limits of testing.

math.ST↗

arXiv2024

Statistical inference of a ranked community in a directed graph

We study the problem of detecting or recovering a planted ranked subgraph from a directed graph, an analog for directed graphs of the well-studied planted dense subgraph model. We suppose that, among a set of $n$ items, there is a subset $S$ of $k$ items having a latent ranking in the form of a permutation $π$ of $S$, and that we observe a fraction $p$ of pairwise orderings between elements of $\{1, \dots, n\}$ which agree with $π$ with probability $\frac{1}{2} + q$ between elements of $S$ and otherwise are uniformly random. Unlike in the planted dense subgraph and planted clique problems where the community $S$ is distinguished by its unusual density of edges, here the community is only distinguished by the unusual consistency of its pairwise orderings. We establish computational and statistical thresholds for both detecting and recovering such a ranked community. In the log-density setting where $k$, $p$, and $q$ all scale as powers of $n$, we establish the exact thresholds in the associated exponents at which detection and recovery become statistically and computationally feasible. These regimes include a rich variety of behaviors, exhibiting both statistical-computational and detection-recovery gaps. We also give finer-grained results for two extreme cases: (1) $p = 1$, $k = n$, and $q$ small, where a full tournament is observed that is weakly correlated with a global ranking, and (2) $p = 1$, $q = \frac{1}{2}$, and $k$ small, where a small "ordered clique" (totally ordered directed subgraph) is planted in a random tournament.

math.ST↗

arXiv2024

Equivalence of Approximate Message Passing and Low-Degree Polynomials in Rank-One Matrix Estimation

We consider the problem of estimating an unknown parameter vector ${\boldsymbol θ}\in{\mathbb R}^n$, given noisy observations ${\boldsymbol Y} = {\boldsymbol θ}{\boldsymbol θ}^{\top}/\sqrt{n}+{\boldsymbol Z}$ of the rank-one matrix ${\boldsymbol θ}{\boldsymbol θ}^{\top}$, where ${\boldsymbol Z}$ has independent Gaussian entries. When information is available about the distribution of the entries of ${\boldsymbol θ}$, spectral methods are known to be strictly sub-optimal. Past work characterized the asymptotics of the accuracy achieved by the optimal estimator. However, no polynomial-time estimator is known that achieves this accuracy. It has been conjectured that this statistical-computation gap is fundamental, and moreover that the optimal accuracy achievable by polynomial-time estimators coincides with the accuracy achieved by certain approximate message passing (AMP) algorithms. We provide evidence towards this conjecture by proving that no estimator in the (broader) class of constant-degree polynomials can surpass AMP.

math.ST↗

arXiv2024

Tensor cumulants for statistical inference on invariant distributions

Many problems in high-dimensional statistics appear to have a statistical-computational gap: a range of values of the signal-to-noise ratio where inference is information-theoretically possible, but (conjecturally) computationally intractable. A canonical such problem is Tensor PCA, where we observe a tensor $Y$ consisting of a rank-one signal plus Gaussian noise. Multiple lines of work suggest that Tensor PCA becomes computationally hard at a critical value of the signal's magnitude. In particular, below this transition, no low-degree polynomial algorithm can detect the signal with high probability; conversely, various spectral algorithms are known to succeed above this transition. We unify and extend this work by considering tensor networks, orthogonally invariant polynomials where multiple copies of $Y$ are "contracted" to produce scalars, vectors, matrices, or other tensors. We define a new set of objects, tensor cumulants, which provide an explicit, near-orthogonal basis for invariant polynomials of a given degree. This basis lets us unify and strengthen previous results on low-degree hardness, giving a combinatorial explanation of the hardness transition and of a continuum of subexponential-time algorithms that work below it, and proving tight lower bounds against low-degree polynomials for recovering rather than just detecting the signal. It also lets us analyze a new problem of distinguishing between different tensor ensembles, such as Wigner and Wishart tensors, establishing a sharp computational threshold and giving evidence of a new statistical-computational gap in the Central Limit Theorem for random tensors. Finally, we believe these cumulants are valuable mathematical objects in their own right: they generalize the free cumulants of free probability theory from matrices to tensors, and share many of their properties, including additivity under additive free convolution.

math.ST↗

arXiv2024

Low-degree phase transitions for detecting a planted clique in sublinear time

We consider the problem of detecting a planted clique of size $k$ in a random graph on $n$ vertices. When the size of the clique exceeds $Θ(\sqrt{n})$, polynomial-time algorithms for detection proliferate. We study faster -- namely, sublinear time -- algorithms in the high-signal regime when $k = Θ(n^{1/2 + δ})$, for some $δ> 0$. To this end, we consider algorithms that non-adaptively query a subset $M$ of entries of the adjacency matrix and then compute a low-degree polynomial function of the revealed entries. We prove a computational phase transition for this class of non-adaptive low-degree algorithms: under the scaling $\lvert M \rvert = Θ(n^γ)$, the clique can be detected when $γ> 3(1/2 - δ)$ but not when $γ< 3(1/2 - δ)$. As a result, the best known runtime for detecting a planted clique, $\widetilde{O}(n^{3(1/2-δ)})$, cannot be improved without looking beyond the non-adaptive low-degree class. Our proof of the lower bound -- based on bounding the conditional low-degree likelihood ratio -- reveals further structure in non-adaptive detection of a planted clique. Using (a bound on) the conditional low-degree likelihood ratio as a potential function, we show that for every non-adaptive query pattern, there is a highly structured query pattern of the same size that is at least as effective.

cs.DS↗

arXiv2024

Information-Theoretic Thresholds for Planted Dense Cycles

We study a random graph model for small-world networks which are ubiquitous in social and biological sciences. In this model, a dense cycle of expected bandwidth $n τ$, representing the hidden one-dimensional geometry of vertices, is planted in an ambient random graph on $n$ vertices. For both detection and recovery of the planted dense cycle, we characterize the information-theoretic thresholds in terms of $n$, $τ$, and an edge-wise signal-to-noise ratio $λ$. In particular, the information-theoretic thresholds differ from the computational thresholds established in a recent work for low-degree polynomial algorithms, thereby justifying the existence of statistical-to-computational gaps for this problem.

math.ST↗

arXiv2023

Time Lower Bounds for the Metropolis Process and Simulated Annealing

The Metropolis process (MP) and Simulated Annealing (SA) are stochastic local search heuristics that are often used in solving combinatorial optimization problems. Despite significant interest, there are very few theoretical results regarding the quality of approximation obtained by MP and SA (with polynomially many iterations) for NP-hard optimization problems. We provide rigorous lower bounds for MP and SA with respect to the classical maximum independent set problem when the algorithms are initialized from the empty set. We establish the existence of a family of graphs for which both MP and SA fail to find approximate solutions in polynomial time. More specifically, we show that for any $\varepsilon \in (0,1)$ there are $n$-vertex graphs for which the probability SA (when limited to polynomially many iterations) will approximate the optimal solution within ratio $Ω\left(\frac{1}{n^{1-\varepsilon}}\right)$ is exponentially small. Our lower bounds extend to graphs of constant average degree $d$, illustrating the failure of MP to achieve an approximation ratio of $Ω\left(\frac{\log (d)}{d}\right)$ in polynomial time. In some cases, our impossibility results also go beyond Simulated Annealing and apply even when the temperature is chosen adaptively. Finally, we prove time lower bounds when the inputs to these algorithms are bipartite graphs, and even trees, which are known to admit polynomial-time algorithms for the independent set problem.

cs.DS↗

arXiv2023

Detection-Recovery Gap for Planted Dense Cycles

Planted dense cycles are a type of latent structure that appears in many applications, such as small-world networks in social sciences and sequence assembly in computational biology. We consider a model where a dense cycle with expected bandwidth $n τ$ and edge density $p$ is planted in an Erdős-Rényi graph $G(n,q)$. We characterize the computational thresholds for the associated detection and recovery problems for the class of low-degree polynomial algorithms. In particular, a gap exists between the two thresholds in a certain regime of parameters. For example, if $n^{-3/4} \ll τ\ll n^{-1/2}$ and $p = C q = Θ(1)$ for a constant $C>1$, the detection problem is computationally easy while the recovery problem is hard for low-degree algorithms.

math.ST↗

arXiv2023

Estimation under group actions: recovering orbits from invariants

We study a class of orbit recovery problems in which we observe independent copies of an unknown element of $\mathbb{R}^p$, each linearly acted upon by a random element of some group (such as $\mathbb{Z}/p$ or $\mathrm{SO}(3)$) and then corrupted by additive Gaussian noise. We prove matching upper and lower bounds on the number of samples required to approximately recover the group orbit of this unknown element with high probability. These bounds, based on quantitative techniques in invariant theory, give a precise correspondence between the statistical difficulty of the estimation problem and algebraic properties of the group. Furthermore, we give computer-assisted procedures to certify these properties that are computationally efficient in many cases of interest. The model is motivated by geometric problems in signal processing, computer vision, and structural biology, and applies to the reconstruction problem in cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM), a problem of significant practical interest. Our results allow us to verify (for a given problem size) that if cryo-EM images are corrupted by noise with variance $σ^2$, the number of images required to recover the molecule structure scales as $σ^6$. We match this bound with a novel (albeit computationally expensive) algorithm for ab initio reconstruction in cryo-EM, based on invariant features of degree at most 3. We further discuss how to recover multiple molecular structures from mixed (or heterogeneous) cryo-EM samples.

math.ST↗