arXiv subjects

Alexandra G. Guerrero

Publications and source records attributed to Alexandra G. Guerrero.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

When the stars don't align: Investigating inconsistencies in binary black hole formation across population synthesis codes

Binary population synthesis (BPS) codes are valuable tools for investigating the end-to-end lives of binary stars as well as a myriad of observed astrophysical phenomena. Many ``rapid" BPS codes rely on semi-analytical single-star evolutionary tracks and disjointed prescriptions for binary physics. Updated ``hybrid" or ``detailed" BPS codes incorporate improved methodologies, but at a steeper computational cost that may limit broad exploration of physical uncertainties. Given the widespread use of BPS in modern astrophysical research, it is imperative to systematically compare BPS codes across the spectrum of computational efficiency, flexibility, and physical realism to gauge their consistency and robustness. In this work, we perform BPS on three single-metallicity populations of identical initial binaries using three modern codes --- the rapid code $\texttt{COSMIC}$, the hybrid code $\texttt{METISSE}$ integrated into $\texttt{COSMIC}$, and the detailed code $\texttt{POSYDON}$ --- ensuring consistent physical parameterizations where possible. We find stark differences in the properties, formation pathways, and progenitors of binary black hole (BBH) merger populations across the three codes. In a population of one million binaries at $0.01 Z_\odot$, each code results in $\sim 5,000\mbox{--}9,000$ BBHs that merge within a Hubble time. However, $\lesssim 14\%$ of progenitors overlap between two codes, and only $\textit{one}$ initial binary becomes a BBH merger across all three codes. Identical progenitors often follow different evolutionary pathways in each code and result in inconsistent BBH properties. Our results highlight the need for a deeper understanding of physical and computational differences between BPS codes and caution against over-interpreting results from any individual BPS code.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

A simple model for extracting astrophysics from black hole images

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) is providing unprecedented high-resolution images of supermassive black holes. These images are fundamentally related to properties of the luminous accretion disks, since black holes themselves produce no light. We develop a simple prescription to relate observational black hole image features to a toy model for the intensity profile of the associated accretion disk. We apply our model to both the original EHT image of M87* and the reanalyzed image from the PRIMO algorithm, providing generic, simultaneous constraints on the black hole mass and disk emission properties. While current images lack the resolution to confidently detect the photon ring, we use multiple observed features from the original EHT image to constrain M87*'s mass to $6.6^{+1.2}_{-1.0}\times 10^9 M_\odot$, and find emission may extend to the black hole horizon. Conversely, using constraints from the PRIMO image alongside brightness asymmetry constraints from the original EHT analysis yields a mass of $6.4^{+0.7}_{-0.7}\times 10^9 M_\odot$, with the disk's inner edge between $3M$ and $5.3M$. Both analyses rule out the disk's inner edge coinciding with the innermost stable circular orbit for a Schwarzschild black hole ($6M$), and our analysis with PRIMO confidently rules out significant emission extending to the horizon ($2M$). While this work restricts disks to Keplerian orbits outside the ISCO, we demonstrate that brightness asymmetry is especially sensitive to the disk velocity profile. Further assumptions on the mass of M87* and connections between the accretion disk cutoff and physical radii allow for rudimentary black hole spin estimates.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Twin Peaks: Resolving Features in the Binary Black Hole Mass Function with COSMIC-METISSE

Gravitational waves from inspiraling binary black holes (BBHs) provide insights into the lives and deaths of massive stars. Population synthesis allows us to model these binaries through isolated binary evolution, but its predictive power is limited by difficulties in varying the stellar models and their associated uncertainties. We present a new grid of stellar tracks computed with the open-source stellar evolution code MESA, spanning metallicities $10^{-3} \le Z/Z_{\odot} \le 7$. We vary two stellar physics parameters: wind-driven mass loss and the convective boundary mixing (CBM) mechanism. We pair these models with the Method of Interpolation for Single Stellar Evolution (METISSE) and binary population synthesis code COSMIC to obtain synthetic populations of merging BBHs in the local Universe. We find a maximum in the primary mass spectrum near $10M_\odot$ which in most model variations is composed of two sub-populations at $\approx8M_{\odot}$ and $\approx13 M_\odot$, with the higher-mass population dominated by BBHs whose progenitors underwent a mass ratio reversal (MRR). This population also suggests an anticorrelation between higher primary masses and mass ratio, as BBHs with $m_1\gtrapprox10M_\odot$ preferentially undergo MRR and prefer a final mass ratio of $q\approx0.7$. However, the location and relative strength of these two sub-populations is sensitive to our assumed stellar physics: varying both the wind and CBM treatments can merge the MRR and non-MRR populations into a single peak near $9M_\odot$. Variations in our stellar tracks, especially CBM, lead to a factor of $\approx6$ difference in the rate, primarily due to modulation of the common envelope formation channel.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

How Low Can You Go: Constraining the Effects of Catalog Incompleteness on Dark Siren Cosmology

Gravitational waves (GWs) serve as standard sirens by directly encoding the luminosity distance to their source. When the host galaxy redshift is known, for example, through observation of an electromagnetic (EM) counterpart, GW detections can provide an independent measurement of the Hubble constant, $H_0$. However, even in the absence of an EM counterpart, inferring $H_0$ is possible through the dark siren method. In this approach, every galaxy in the GW localization volume is considered a potential host that contributes to a measurement of $H_0$, with redshift information supplied by galaxy catalogs. Using mock galaxy catalogs, we explore the effect of catalog incompleteness on dark siren measurements of $H_0$. We find that in the case of well-localized GW events, if GW hosts are found in all galaxies with host halo masses $M_h > 2 \times10^{11} M_{\odot}h^{-1}$, catalogs only need to be complete down to the 1% brightest magnitude $M_i < -22.43$ to draw an unbiased, informative posterior on H0. We demonstrate that this is a direct result of the clustering of fainter galaxies around brighter and more massive galaxies. For a mock galaxy catalog without clustering, or for GW localization volumes that are too large, using only the brightest galaxies results in a biased $H_0$ posterior. These results are important for informing future dark siren analyses with LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA as well as next-generation detectors.

astro-ph.CO↗