arXiv subjects

Alexandre A. Rodrigues

Publications and source records attributed to Alexandre A. Rodrigues.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2023

Pulse vaccination in a SIR model: global dynamics, bifurcations and seasonality

We analyze a periodically-forced dynamical system inspired by the SIR model with impulsive vaccination. We fully characterize its dynamics according to the proportion $p$ of vaccinated individuals and the time $T$ between doses. If the basic reproduction number is less than 1 (i.e. $\mathcal{R}_p<1$), then we obtain precise conditions for the existence and global stability of a disease-free it $T$-periodic solution. Otherwise, if $\mathcal{R}_p>1$, then a globally stable $T$-periodic solution emerges with positive coordinates. We draw a bifurcation diagram $(T,p)$ and we describe the associated bifurcations. We also find analytically and numerically chaotic dynamics by adding seasonality to the disease transmission rate. In a realistic context, low vaccination coverage and intense seasonality may result in unpredictable dynamics. Previous experiments have suggested chaos in periodically-forced biological impulsive models, but no analytic proof has been given.

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arXiv2023

Abundance of infinite switching

In this article, we describe a class of vector fields exhibiting abundant switching} near a network: for every neighbourhood of the network and every infinite admissible path, the set of initial conditions within the neighbourhood that follows the path has positive Lebesgue measure. The proof relies on the existence of "large'' strange attractors in the terminology of Broer, Simó and Tatjer (Nonlinearity, 667--770, 1998) near a heteroclinic tangle unfolding an attracting network with a two-dimensional heteroclinic connection. For our class of vector fields, any small non-empty open ball of initial conditions realizes infinite switching. We illustrate the theory with a specific one-parameter family of differential equations, for which we are able to characterise its global dynamics for almost all parameters.

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arXiv2022

SIR model with vaccination: bifurcation analysis

There are few adapted SIR models in the literature that combine vaccination and logistic growth. In this article, we study bifurcations of a SIR model where the class of Susceptible individuals grows logistically and has been subject to constant vaccination. We explicitly prove that the endemic equilibrium is a codimension two singularity in the parameter space $(\mathcal{R}_0, p)$, where $\mathcal{R}_0$ is the basic reproduction number and $p$ is the proportion of Susceptible individuals successfully vaccinated at birth. We exhibit explicitly the Hopf, transcritical, Belyakov, heteroclinic and saddle-node bifurcation curves unfolding the singularity. The two parameters $(\mathcal{R}_0, p)$ are written in a useful way to evaluate the proportion of vaccinated individuals necessary to eliminate the disease and to conclude how the vaccination may affect the outcome of the epidemic. We also exhibit the region in the parameter space where the disease persists and we illustrate our main result with numerical simulations, emphasizing the role of the parameters.

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arXiv2022

Stability of heteroclinic cycles: a new approach

This paper analyses the stability of cycles within a heteroclinic network lying in a three-dimensional manifold formed by six cycles, for a one-parameter model developed in the context of game theory. We show the asymptotic stability of the network for a range of parameter values compatible with the existence of an interior equilibrium and we describe an asymptotic technique to decide which cycle (within the network) is visible in numerics. The technique consists of reducing the relevant dynamics to a suitable one-dimensional map, the so called \emph{projective map}. Stability of the fixed points of the projective map determines the stability of the associated cycles. The description of this new asymptotic approach is applicable to more general types of networks and is potentially useful in computational dynamics.

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arXiv2022

Strange attractors in a dynamical system inspired by a seasonally forced SIR model

We analyze a multiparameter periodically-forced dynamical system inspired in the SIR endemic model. We show that the condition on the \emph{basic reproduction number} $\mathcal{R}_0 < 1$ is not sufficient to guarantee the elimination of \emph{Infectious} individuals due to a \emph{backward bifurcation}. Using the theory of rank-one attractors, for an open subset in the space of parameters where $\mathcal{R}_0<1$, the flow exhibits \emph{persistent strange attractors}. These sets are not confined to a tubular neighbourhood in the phase space, are numerically observable and shadow the ghost of a two-dimensional invariant torus. Although numerical experiments have already suggested that periodically-forced biological models may exhibit observable chaos, a rigorous proof was not given before. Our results agree well with the empirical belief that intense seasonality induces chaos. This work provides a preliminary investigation of the interplay between seasonality, deterministic dynamics and the prevalence of strange attractors in a nonlinear forced system inspired by biology.

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arXiv2022

Persistent Strange attractors in 3D Polymatrix Replicators

We introduce a one-parameter family of polymatrix replicators defined in a three-dimensional cube and study its bifurcations. For a given interval of parameters, this family exhibits suspended horseshoes and persistent strange attractors. The proof relies on the existence of a homoclinic cycle to the interior equilibrium. We also describe the phenomenological steps responsible for the transition from regular to chaotic dynamics in our system (route to chaos).

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