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Alexey Zaytsev

Publications and source records attributed to Alexey Zaytsev.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

INTRYGUE: Induction-Aware Entropy Gating for Reliable RAG Uncertainty Estimation

While retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) enhances LLM performance, it does not eliminate hallucinations, making accurate detection essential. Uncertainty-based methods are attractive for this purpose because they can be integrated into real-world pipelines with little overhead. One of the most widely used uncertainty signals is predictive entropy. We show, however, that entropy can be unreliable in RAG settings and trace this limitation to two opposing internal effects. Induction heads, which copy patterns from earlier context, causally support correct responses and lower predictive entropy, but they also appear to co-activate entropy neurons that push it back up. As a result, correct, context-grounded responses can still receive high uncertainty scores. To address this, we propose INTRYGUE (Induction-Aware Entropy Gating for Uncertainty Estimation), a training-free, mechanistically grounded method that gates predictive entropy by an attention-based estimate of induction-head activity. Evaluated across four RAG-style benchmarks and six open-source LLMs (4B to 13B parameters), INTRYGUE performs competitively against a wide range of baselines, matching or exceeding the strongest of them in most settings. Our findings suggest that hallucination detection in RAG benefits from combining predictive uncertainty with interpretable internal signals of context utilization.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

CLaST: Context-aware Contrastive VAE for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting

Probabilistic forecasting models are widely used for time series forecasting in domains such as energy systems, finance, medicine, and transportation. In recent years, deep generative models have shown strong results on probabilistic forecasting, yet many conventional approaches struggle to capture internal temporal dependencies, leading to latent representations with limited expressive power. To address this limitation, we propose \textit{CLaST}, a VAE framework for probabilistic multivariate time series forecasting. Unlike existing generative models, CLaST learns embeddings that preserve contextual similarity between observations through our contrastive loss function. Experiments across nine widely adopted benchmarks demonstrate that CLaST consistently surpasses strong baseline methods. In short-term forecasting tasks, our approach achieves improvements of up to $16.4\%$ in CRPS and $14.4\%$ in NMAE over the second-best method. Furthermore, in long-term prediction CLaST attains superior overall performance, exceeding the second-best method by up to $48.6\%$ and $25.1\%$ in CRPS and NMAE, respectively.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

DecoVAE: a Lightweight Interpretable Trend-Seasonal VAE Framework for Efficient Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting

Probabilistic time series forecasting remains challenging, largely because modeling distinct trend and seasonal dynamics requires specialized approaches. Existing methods often fail to capture the unique inner properties of these components, lack interpretability, or suffer from heavy memory and runtime overhead. To address these limitations, we propose DecoVAE, a lightweight interpretable trend-seasonal VAE framework that explicitly decomposes time series into trend and seasonal components by applying domain-specific inductive biases. The trend stream enforces structural smoothness using a differential regularizer on the latent trajectory, analogous to the Hodrick-Prescott filter. Concurrently, the seasonal stream operates in the frequency domain via a complex Gaussian VAE, natively capturing the amplitude and phase of periodic patterns. Extensive evaluations across seven real-world benchmarks show that DecoVAE consistently outperforms strong baselines. It achieves reductions of up to 14.96\% in CRPS and 23.30\% in NMAE for short-term forecasting, and up to 52.68\% and 26.51\% for long-term horizons. Crucially, DecoVAE yields these accuracy gains while remaining highly efficient, reducing model weight by up to 93\% and accelerating speed by up to 74\% compared to the second-best method.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

BEAR-Bench: A Bilingual Enterprise and Academic Reasoning Benchmark for Multimodal Models

While Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have made significant strides in visual comprehension, their ability to reason about text-dense, professional documents remains incompletely evaluated. Existing benchmarks emphasize information extraction, require external domain knowledge, or cover professional documents only as one of many settings. They are also largely English- or Chinese-centric, leaving other languages and Russian, in particular, substantially underrepresented. To address these limitations, we introduce BEAR-Bench (Bilingual Enterprise and Academic Reasoning), a self-contained, complex English-and-Russian benchmark comprising 1000 human-annotated questions based on text-rich business and scientific documents. We evaluate 16 proprietary and open-weight MLLMs, including Gemini 3.1 Pro and Qwen3.5-397B, on BEAR-Bench and observe clear headroom even for the strongest systems. Finally, we use the resulting model outputs to compare existing hallucination detection methods, evaluating not only how often models fail on BEAR-Bench but also how reliably those failures can be identified.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

GENADA: efficient generative time series adversarial attack framework

Deep learning models are widely used for time series analysis in domains such as healthcare, finance, energy systems, and environmental monitoring. However, these models remain vulnerable to adversarial attacks, where small input perturbations cause severe degradation in predictive performance. Commonly used gradient-based attacks, iterative first-order methods, are computationally burdensome, as they repeatedly backpropagate through the victim model to compute input gradients during a number of iterative refinement steps. We propose a GENerative ADversarial Attack (GENADA) that learns a generative model to produce deceptive perturbations directly in a single forward pass and a procedure to train it. Variants include single-step and iterative generative attack schemes. The validation considers attacks on several neural models and datasets in the time-series domain, a controlled, low-dimensional setting. Empirically, GENADA achieves comparable attack quality to strong baselines while requiring less time to generate perturbations during inference.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Batch Size or Negatives? A Selection Rule for Memory-Constrained Recommender Training

Large-scale neural recommender systems are typically trained with a softmax cross-entropy objective over the full item vocabulary. For a typical large number of possible items $K$, the final classification layer dominates memory, requiring $O(nK)$ logits and gradients to materialize for a batch of $n$ examples. Sampled softmax reduces this cost by restricting the objective to only $k \ll K$ candidate negative items, resulting in an $O(nk)$ memory. However, for a fixed budget $B = n k$, it remains unclear whether one should prioritize larger batches or the inclusion of more negative items. We address this question by analyzing sampled-softmax training under a fixed memory constraint. Under standard smoothness and variance assumptions, our theoretical evidence suggests that the fastest convergence arises from an $ n \sim B, k \sim 1$ allocation. So, an actionable rule is to include as many objects as possible given computational constraints. Our theory is supported by controlled synthetic and synthetic and four real sequential recommendation benchmarks, including MovieLens-20M. The suggested configuration achieve faster convergence and better final recommendation quality than imbalanced alternatives within the same memory constraint. These findings provide a theoretical and empirical foundation for configuring memory during the training of recommender systems. Code, reproducibility materials, and all scripts for generating figures are available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/LimitedMemoryRule-BBFB

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

ASK-NN: An Asymmetric Nearest-Neighbor Test that detects Distribution Drifts in Natural Language

Hallucinations and artificial text in LLM-generated outputs often appear as distributional deviations between prompt and response hidden-state distributions. Since prompts or retrieved contexts typically serve as reference samples and responses as query samples, with major differences in length, these asymmetries motivate the use of change test statistics that treat the two samples differently. We consider an asymmetric two-sample test ASK-NN based on the directed k-nearest-neighbor graph. Our statistic counts reference points whose nearest neighbor in the pooled sample is also a reference point. Under the permutation null, it admits an exact finite-sample conditional mean and variance; we further establish asymptotic normality and consistency under fixed alternatives. ASK-NN is computationally effective and easy to implement. Empirically, it is competitive with kernel and graph-based baselines on synthetic benchmarks, artificial-text detection, and LLM hallucination detection from token-level hidden states.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Efficient Neural Controlled Differential Equations via Attentive Kernel Smoothing

Neural Controlled Differential Equations (Neural CDEs) provide a powerful continuous-time framework for sequence modeling, yet the roughness of the driving control path often restricts their efficiency. Standard splines introduce high-frequency variations that force adaptive solvers to take excessively small steps, driving up the Number of Function Evaluations (NFE). We propose a novel approach to Neural CDE path construction that replaces exact interpolation with Kernel and Gaussian Process (GP) smoothing, enabling explicit control over trajectory regularity. To recover details lost during smoothing, we propose an attention-based Multi-View CDE (MV-CDE) and its convolutional extension (MVC-CDE), which employ learnable queries to inform path reconstruction. This framework allows the model to distribute representational capacity across multiple trajectories, each capturing distinct temporal patterns. Empirical results demonstrate that our method, MVC-CDE with GP, achieves state-of-the-art accuracy while significantly reducing NFEs and total inference time compared to spline-based baselines.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Never Skip a Batch: Dense Learning of Temporal GNNs via Adaptive Pseudo-Supervision

Temporal graph networks suffer from irregular supervision in realworld dynamic graphs, as most minibatches contain few labeled events. The lack of labels leads to high-variance gradient updates and, consequently, slow wall-clock convergence. To constructively reduce sparsity, our Moving-Averaged Labels (MAL) assigns soft pseudo-targets based on past supervised signals using a running label distribution while leaving the loss and the model architecture unchanged. Thus, supervision gaps are replaced with informative signals independent of a temporal graph model and the message passing or memory components used. Theoretical analysis supports our insight that aggregating historical supervision into moving average targets reduces stochastic gradient variance, yielding faster convergence under mild assumptions. Experimentally, for TGNv2 and DyRepv2 (our modification of DyRep) models, MAL boosts predictive performance, establishing a new SOTA, and improves time-to-accuracy (on average 6x faster to reach the top score) for a common suite of Temporal Graph Benchmark datasets.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Benchmarking on Tasks That Matter: Dataset Selection for Preserving Model Rankings

Benchmarks of machine learning models often include many datasets, making evaluation expensive. For efficiency, it is preferable to perform evaluations on small, representative datasets instead. The selection of such subsets typically relies on heuristics and is rarely analyzed for the robustness of the resulting model rankings. We introduce a framework to perform the task of selecting datasets subsets with an evaluation of how different selection strategies preserve the global model rankings. Our framework includes bootstrap aggregation, which provides valid confidence intervals, allowing a principled comparison of selection strategies. We consider clustering, design criteria (A/D-optimality), random baselines, and greedy farthest-first (FAFI). For the latter, we derive upper bounds on selection quality in terms of ranking errors as a function of the number of selected datasets. Empirically, in time series classification (TSC, 112 datasets) and in a supplementary natural language processing benchmark derived from MTEB (57 tasks), several selection strategies improve rank preservation compared with random subsets, including simple FAFI. In contrast, in recommender systems (30 datasets), the improvement of strategies over random selection is small and typically statistically insignificant. For TSC, our best-performing strategy achieves a Spearman correlation of 0.95 with the full benchmark model rankings using only five selected datasets. Additional experiments indicate that the effectiveness of selection approaches depends on both the quality of dataset representations and the scale of the benchmarking regime.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Pre-Generation Hallucination Detection in Large Language Models via Soft-Target Attention Probing

Detecting hallucination risk before generation enables abstention, retrieval augmentation, and routing decisions without incurring the cost of decoding. While prior work has shown that such risk can be estimated from a model's internal representations, existing approaches treat this as binary classification over a single decoded output. We instead formulate it as a risk-estimation problem. Under this formulation, we introduce soft-target supervision based on the empirical answer error rate over stochastically sampled outputs - an estimator we prove to be the unique unbiased minimum-variance estimator of the model's per-prompt error probability under its sampling distribution. We further adapt attention probing to the pre-generation setting, enabling the detector to selectively aggregate hallucination-relevant prompt representations. Across three question-answering benchmarks and five models, attention probing outperforms linear probing on short-answer tasks. Replacing binary labels with soft-target supervision further and consistently improves detection quality.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

Looking around you: external information enhances representations for event sequences

Representation learning produces models in different domains, such as store purchases, client transactions, and general people's behavior. However, such models for event sequences usually process each sequence in isolation, ignoring context from those that co-occur in time. This limitation is particularly problematic in domains with fast-evolving conditions, like finance and e-commerce, or when certain sequences lack recent events. We develop a method that aggregates information from multiple user representations, augmenting a specific user's representation in a setting with multiple co-occurring event sequences, achieving better quality than processing each sequence independently. Our study considers diverse aggregation approaches, ranging from simple pooling techniques to Learnable attention aggregation, that can highlight more complex information flow among other users. The proposed methods operate on top of an existing encoder and support its efficient fine-tuning. Across nine diverse event sequence datasets (finance, e-commerce, entertainment, etc.) and downstream tasks, Learnable attention improves metric scores, both with and without fine-tuning, while mean pooling yields a smaller but still significant gain.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Faster and Memory-Efficient Training of Sequential Recommendation Models for Large Catalogs

Sequential recommendations (SR) with transformer-based architectures are widely adopted in real-world applications, where SR models require frequent retraining to adapt to ever-changing user preferences. However, training transformer-based SR models often encounters a high computational cost associated with scoring extensive item catalogs, often exceeding thousands of items. This occurs mainly due to the use of cross-entropy loss, where peak memory scales proportionally to catalog size, batch size, and sequence length. Recognizing this, practitioners in the field of recommendation systems typically address memory consumption by integrating the cross-entropy (CE) loss with negative sampling, thereby reducing the explicit memory demands of the final layer. However, a small number of negative samples would degrade model performance, and as we demonstrate in our work, increasing the number of negative samples and the batch size further improves the model's performance, but rapidly starts to exceed industrial GPUs' size (~40Gb). In this work, we introduce the CCE- method, which offers a GPU-efficient implementation of the CE loss with negative sampling. Our method accelerates training by up to two times while reducing memory consumption by more than 10 times. Leveraging the memory savings afforded by using CCE- for model training, it becomes feasible to enhance its accuracy on datasets with a large item catalog compared to those trained with original PyTorch-implemented loss functions. Finally, we perform an analysis of key memory-related hyperparameters and highlight the necessity of a delicate balance among these factors. We demonstrate that scaling both the number of negative samples and batch size leads to better results rather than maximizing only one of them. To facilitate further adoption of CCE-, we release a Triton kernel that efficiently implements the proposed method.

cs.IR↗
arXiv2026

Hallucination Detection in LLMs with Topological Divergence on Attention Graphs

Hallucination, i.e., generating factually incorrect content, remains a critical challenge for large language models (LLMs). We introduce TOHA, a TOpology-based HAllucination detector in the RAG setting, which leverages a topological divergence metric to quantify the structural properties of graphs induced by attention matrices. Examining the topological divergence between prompt and response subgraphs reveals consistent patterns: higher divergence values in specific attention heads correlate with hallucinated outputs, independent of the dataset. Extensive experiments - including evaluation on question answering and summarization tasks - show that our approach achieves state-of-the-art or competitive results on several benchmarks while requiring minimal annotated data and computational resources. Our findings suggest that analyzing the topological structure of attention matrices can serve as an efficient and robust indicator of factual reliability in LLMs.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

Position: agentic AI orchestration should be Bayes-consistent

LLMs excel at predictive tasks and complex reasoning tasks, but many high-value deployments rely on decisions under uncertainty, for example, which tool to call, which expert to consult, or how many resources to invest. While the usefulness and feasibility of Bayesian approaches remain unclear for LLM inference, this position paper argues that the control layer of an agentic AI system (that orchestrates LLMs and tools) is a clear case where Bayesian principles should shine. Bayesian decision theory provides a framework for agentic systems that can help to maintain beliefs over task-relevant latent quantities, to update these beliefs from observed agentic and human-AI interactions, and to choose actions. Making LLMs themselves explicitly Bayesian belief-updating engines remains computationally intensive and conceptually nontrivial as a general modeling target. In contrast, this paper argues that coherent decision-making requires Bayesian principles at the orchestration level of the agentic system, not necessarily the LLM agent parameters. This paper articulates practical properties for Bayesian control that fit modern agentic AI systems and human-AI collaboration, and provides concrete examples and design patterns to illustrate how calibrated beliefs and utility-aware policies can improve agentic AI orchestration.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

Language steering in latent space to mitigate unintended code-switching

Multilingual Large Language Models (LLMs) often exhibit hallucinations such as unintended code-switching, reducing reliability in downstream tasks. We propose latent-space language steering, a lightweight inference-time method that identifies language directions via Principal Component Analysis (PCA) on parallel translations and steers token embeddings along these axes to control language identity. Our approach mitigates code-switching while preserving semantics with negligible computational overhead and requires only minimal parallel data for calibration. Empirically, we achieve 95-99\% language classification accuracy using a single principal component and reduce next-token distributional divergence by up to 55\% across multiple language pairs on Qwen2.5 and Llama-3.2 models. Generation-based evaluation on Llama-3.2 further demonstrates 63--99\% reduction in Code-Switching Index across four language pairs ($p < 0.001$). We further analyze the layer-wise evolution of language representations, revealing that language identity concentrates in final layers with near-perfect linear separability.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

ALIEN: Aligned Entropy Head for Improving Uncertainty Estimation of LLMs

Uncertainty estimation remains a key challenge when adapting pre-trained language models to downstream classification tasks, with overconfidence often observed for difficult inputs. While predictive entropy provides a strong baseline for uncertainty estimation, it considers mainly aleatoric uncertainty and has limited capacity to capture effects, such as class overlap or ambiguous linguistic cues. We introduce Aligned Entropy - ALIEN, a lightweight method that refines entropy-based uncertainty by aligning it with prediction reliability. ALIEN trains a small uncertainty head initialized to produce the model's original entropy and subsequently fine-tuned with two regularization mechanisms. Experiments across seven classification datasets and two NER benchmarks, evaluated on five language models (RoBERTa, ELECTRA, LLaMA-2, Qwen2.5, and Qwen3), show that ALIEN consistently outperforms strong baselines across all considered scenarios in detecting incorrect predictions, while achieving the lowest calibration error. The proposed method introduces only a small inference overhead (in the order of milliseconds per batch on CPU) and increases the model's parameter count by just 0.002% for decoder models and 0.5% for encoder models, without requiring storage of intermediate states. It improves uncertainty estimation while preserving the original model architecture, making the approach practical for large-scale deployment with modern language models. Our results demonstrate that entropy can be effectively refined through lightweight supervised alignment, producing more reliable uncertainty estimates without modifying the backbone model. The code is available at 4.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

Enhancing the Reliability of Medical AI through Expert-guided Uncertainty Modeling

Artificial intelligence (AI) systems accelerate medical workflows and improve diagnostic accuracy in healthcare, serving as second-opinion systems. However, the unpredictability of AI errors poses a significant challenge, particularly in healthcare contexts, where mistakes can have severe consequences. A widely adopted safeguard is to pair predictions with uncertainty estimation, enabling human experts to focus on high-risk cases while streamlining routine verification. Current uncertainty estimation methods, however, remain limited, particularly in quantifying aleatoric uncertainty, which arises from data ambiguity and noise. To address this, we propose a novel approach that leverages disagreement in expert responses to generate targets for training machine learning models. These targets are used in conjunction with standard data labels to estimate two components of uncertainty separately, as given by the law of total variance, via a two-ensemble approach, as well as its lightweight variant. We validate our method on binary image classification, binary and multi-class image segmentation, and multiple-choice question answering. Our experiments demonstrate that incorporating expert knowledge can enhance uncertainty estimation quality by $9\%$ to $50\%$ depending on the task, making this source of information invaluable for the construction of risk-aware AI systems in healthcare applications.

cs.LG↗