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Ali Zemouche

Publications and source records attributed to Ali Zemouche.

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Removal-Only Actuation in Age-Structured Branching Populations: Fundamental Limits of Equilibrium Placement

A subcritical age-structured branching population dies out almost surely. Conditioned on survival, it converges to its Yaglom limit, a quasi-stationary equilibrium that we take as the operating point for control. We model preventive removal (culling) as an age-dependent actuator that raises the mortality rate and leaves the offspring law untouched, and we show that its authority over this equilibrium is bounded for structural reasons. Two facts drive the result. First, the input is matched to the killing rate but unmatched with respect to the Foster--Lyapunov drift, so the transmission barrier $\Lbar$ set by reproduction alone is invariant under such actuation. Second, and this does not follow from invariance alone,} the supremum of the reachable decay rates is $\Lbar+\nu^\star$, where $\nu^\star\le0$ is the Malthusian parameter of the lineage conditioned never to die childless; the gap $|\nu^\star|$ is given in closed form and vanishes exactly when no individual has two or more offspring. Consequently no removal law of this class reaches the barrier, and along the admissibility boundary the achievable decay rate is governed by the shape of the actuator rather than by its size. We illustrate these results on a model calibrated to the 2001 Cumbrian foot-and-mouth outbreak.

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Fleming-Viot Selection of the Yaglom Limit for Age-Structured Bellman-Harris Processes, with Application to Livestock Epidemic Surveillance

In this paper, we construct a Fleming-Viot particle system for a class of subcritical Bellman-Harris processes. We prove that it selects the Yaglom limit at a polynomial rate in the number of particles. Since lifetimes are non-exponential, the population size is not Markov, and the analysis must therefore be carried out on the space of age configurations. In this setting, the Lyapunov functions used for Galton-Watson processes are no longer norm-like. Nevertheless, we establish a Yaglom theorem that strengthens the classical result: the conditional laws converge in total variation at an exponential rate, with decay rate given by the Malthusian parameter. We also prove that the drift condition, which links the hazard rate to the offspring law, is necessary within a natural class of Lyapunov functions, showing that it is a feature of the measure-valued lift rather than a defect of the estimates. Finally, we illustrate the estimator through an application to livestock epidemic surveillance, where the Yaglom limit is the null distribution of a change-detection test.

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