arXiv subjects

Alireza Moradi

Publications and source records attributed to Alireza Moradi.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

SMART: A Machine Learning and Monte Carlo Framework for Rapid Analysis of Stochastic Transistor Aging and Process Variation in Digital Circuits

As CMOS technology scales into the deep nanometer regime, digital circuit reliability is increasingly threatened by the combined stochastic effects of Bias Temperature Instability (BTI) and Process Variation (PV). Traditional reliability analysis methods, which rely on computationally intensive simulations or extensive lookup tables, fail to scale efficiently for large designs, creating a critical bottleneck in design space exploration. To address this, we propose SMART, a novel framework that integrates Machine Learning (ML) with Monte Carlo simulation to enable rapid, high-fidelity reliability analysis. SMART employs Random Forest regression to predict gate delay distributions directly, bypassing time-consuming atomic model parameter extractions. Crucially, the model utilizes Bayesian Optimization for automated hyperparameter tuning, ensuring maximum predictive robustness across diverse libraries. Experimental validation on ISCAS85 benchmark circuits demonstrates that SMART achieves a 94.54% reduction in analysis time compared to state-of-the-art methods, while maintaining a remarkable average accuracy error of just 1.63%. By shifting computational complexity to an offline training phase, the proposed framework offers a scalable, accurate solution for designing resilient, reliability-aware digital systems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Copula-Based Aggregation and Context-Aware Conformal Prediction for Reliable Renewable Energy Forecasting

The rapid growth of renewable energy penetration has intensified the need for reliable probabilistic forecasts to support grid operations at aggregated (fleet or system) levels. In practice, however, system operators often lack access to fleet-level probabilistic models and instead rely on site-level forecasts produced by heterogeneous third-party providers. Constructing coherent and calibrated fleet-level probabilistic forecasts from such inputs remains challenging due to complex cross-site dependencies and aggregation-induced miscalibration. This paper proposes a calibrated probabilistic aggregation framework that directly converts site-level probabilistic forecasts into reliable fleet-level forecasts in settings where system-level models cannot be trained or maintained. The framework integrates copula-based dependence modeling to capture cross-site correlations with Context-Aware Conformal Prediction (CACP) to correct miscalibration at the aggregated level. This combination enables dependence-aware aggregation while providing valid coverage and maintaining sharp prediction intervals. Experiments on large-scale solar generation datasets from MISO, ERCOT, and SPP demonstrate that the proposed Copula+CACP approach consistently achieves near-nominal coverage with significantly sharper intervals than uncalibrated aggregation baselines.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Enhanced Renewable Energy Forecasting using Context-Aware Conformal Prediction

Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly used to support renewable energy forecasting and grid operations. As renewable penetration grows, reliable probabilistic forecasting is becoming essential for managing uncertainty and supporting risk-aware operational decision-making. However, these forecasts often suffer from miscalibration due to temporal variability, changing weather conditions, and heterogeneous operating regimes. In many real-world settings, renewable energy forecasts are provided by external sources, vendors, or independently trained systems, making retraining infeasible because of limited model access or computational constraints. This creates a need for efficient and model-agnostic methods that can improve forecast reliability after they are produced. This paper presents Context-Aware Conformal Prediction (CACP), a framework for calibrating renewable energy forecasts. The proposed method relies on a weighting mechanism during the calibration procedure which assigns higher weights to historical observations that are more similar to the target forecasting condition. This enables adaptive prediction intervals that reflect local uncertainty regimes without requiring access to, or retraining of, the underlying forecasting model. Experiments are performed on a large-scale dataset from National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) day-ahead solar forecasting, covering multiple systems including MISO, ERCTO, and SPP. The results show that CACP improves the reliability-efficiency tradeoff at both site and system levels compared to NREL's base forecasting model and the other conformal prediction baselines. These results suggest that CACP can serve as a practical reliability-enhancement layer for trustworthy AI-enabled renewable energy forecasting and operational decision support.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2025

Informed Forecasting: Leveraging Auxiliary Knowledge to Boost LLM Performance on Time Series Forecasting

With the widespread adoption of Large Language Models (LLMs), there is a growing need to establish best practices for leveraging their capabilities beyond traditional natural language tasks. In this paper, a novel cross-domain knowledge transfer framework is proposed to enhance the performance of LLMs in time series forecasting -- a task of increasing relevance in fields such as energy systems, finance, and healthcare. The approach systematically infuses LLMs with structured temporal information to improve their forecasting accuracy. This study evaluates the proposed method on a real-world time series dataset and compares it to a naive baseline where the LLM receives no auxiliary information. Results show that knowledge-informed forecasting significantly outperforms the uninformed baseline in terms of predictive accuracy and generalization. These findings highlight the potential of knowledge transfer strategies to bridge the gap between LLMs and domain-specific forecasting tasks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Enhanced Renewable Energy Forecasting and Operations through Probabilistic Forecast Aggregation

Accurate and reliable forecasting of renewable energy generation is crucial for the efficient integration of renewable sources into the power grid. In particular, probabilistic forecasts are becoming essential for managing the intrinsic variability and uncertainty of renewable energy production, especially wind and solar generation. This paper considers the setting where probabilistic forecasts are provided for individual renewable energy sites using, e.g., quantile regression models, but without any correlation information between sites. This setting is common if, e.g., such forecasts are provided by each individual site, or by multiple vendors. However, to effectively manage a fleet of renewable generators, it is necessary to aggregate these individual forecasts to the fleet level, while ensuring that the aggregated probabilistic forecast is statistically consistent and reliable. To address this challenge, this paper presents the integrated use of Copula and Monte-Carlo methods to aggregate individual probabilistic forecasts into a statistically calibrated, probabilistic forecast at the fleet level. The proposed framework is validated using synthetic data from several large-scale systems in the United States. This work has important implications for grid operators and energy planners, providing them with better tools to manage the variability and uncertainty inherent in renewable energy production.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2022

MCTS with Refinement for Proposals Selection Games in Scene Understanding

We propose a novel method applicable in many scene understanding problems that adapts the Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) algorithm, originally designed to learn to play games of high-state complexity. From a generated pool of proposals, our method jointly selects and optimizes proposals that minimize the objective term. In our first application for floor plan reconstruction from point clouds, our method selects and refines the room proposals, modelled as 2D polygons, by optimizing on an objective function combining the fitness as predicted by a deep network and regularizing terms on the room shapes. We also introduce a novel differentiable method for rendering the polygonal shapes of these proposals. Our evaluations on the recent and challenging Structured3D and Floor-SP datasets show significant improvements over the state-of-the-art, without imposing hard constraints nor assumptions on the floor plan configurations. In our second application, we extend our approach to reconstruct general 3D room layouts from a color image and obtain accurate room layouts. We also show that our differentiable renderer can easily be extended for rendering 3D planar polygons and polygon embeddings. Our method shows high performance on the Matterport3D-Layout dataset, without introducing hard constraints on room layout configurations.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2019

A simple but energy-efficient HVAC control synthesis for data centers

The air conditioning management of data centers, a key question with respect to energy saving, is here tackled via the recent model-free control synthesis. Mathematical modeling becomes useless in this approach. The tuning of the corresponding intelligent proportional controller is straightforward. Computer simulations show excellent tracking performances in various realistic situations, like CPU load or temperature changes.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2019

Easily implementable time series forecasting techniques for resource provisioning in cloud computing

Workload predictions in cloud computing is obviously an important topic. Most of the existing publications employ various time series techniques, that might be difficult to implement. We suggest here another route, which has already been successfully used in financial engineering and photovoltaic energy. No mathematical modeling and machine learning procedures are needed. Our computer simulations via realistic data, which are quite convincing, show that a setting mixing algebraic estimation techniques and the daily seasonality behaves much better. An application to the computing resource allocation, via virtual machines, is sketched out.

cs.DC↗

arXiv2018

Improving resource elasticity in cloud computing thanks to model-free control

In cloud computing management, the dynamic adaptation of computing resource allocations under time-varying workload is an active domain of investigation. Several control strategies were already proposed. Here the model-free control setting and the corresponding "intelligent" controllers, which are most successful in many concrete engineering situations, are employed for the "horizontal elasticity." When compared to the commercial "Auto-Scaling" algorithms, our easily implementable approach, behaves better even with sharp workload fluctuations. This is confirmed by experiments on Amazon Web Services (AWS).

cs.DC↗