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Alistair Barton

Publications and source records attributed to Alistair Barton.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

Ripple Effects: Robust Norms without Punishment

I propose a novel, tractable model of pro-social norms in large communities with slightly altruistic agents. Agents participate in the norm to influence others to participate in the norm, influencing further agents. A continuum of equilibria sustain the pro-social norm, varying in the distribution of how much agents are influenced by their observations. If agents' effective altruism $α$ is larger than their impatience $1-δ$, equilibria exist that are robust to a population of bad actors. Greater strategic homogeneity increases the robustness of the norm. Robustness is not improved by increasing the number of observers of each action beyond 1.

econ.TH

Purification and Perturbations of Communication and Repeated Games

I prove that it is irrational for agents with even slightly private preferences to condition their strategy on private information that is payoff-irrelevant to them, contrary to powerful techniques for analyzing communication and repeated games. In repeated games with public+private monitoring, this means all pure equilibria are perfect public equilibria, and non-trivial belief free equilibria do not exist. In a wide class of communication games (up to allowing receiver commitment), this means persuasion is impossible with state-independent preferences. Nevertheless, these analytic techniques may be made compatible with private preferences through perturbation approaches: considering either payoff-relevance of the private information or correlation between parties' information. An example of the latter occurs by introducing `atonement' to repeated games equilibria.

econ.TH

Robust Communication Between Parties with Nearly Independent Preferences

We study finite-state communication games in which the sender's preference is perturbed by random private idiosyncrasies. Persuasion is generically impossible within the class of statistically independent sender/receiver preferences -- contrary to prior research establishing persuasive equilibria when the sender's preference is precisely transparent. Nevertheless, robust persuasion may occur when the sender's preference is only slightly state-dependent/idiosyncratic. This requires approximating an `acyclic' equilibrium of the transparent preference game, generically implying that this equilibrium is also `connected' -- a generalization of partial-pooling equilibria. It is then necessary and sufficient that the sender's preference satisfy a monotonicity condition relative to the approximated equilibrium. If the sender's preference further satisfies a `semi-local' version of increasing differences, then this analysis extends to sender preferences that rank pure actions (but not mixed actions) according to a state-independent order. We apply these techniques to study (1) how ethical considerations, such as empathy for the receiver, may improve or impede comm

econ.TH

Dynamic and Stochastic Propagation of Brenier's Optimal Mass Transport

We investigate how mass transports that optimize the inner product cost -considered by Y. Brenier- propagate in time along a given Lagrangian. In the deterministic case, we consider transports that maximize and minimize the following "ballistic" cost functional on phase space $M^*\times M$, \[ b_T(v, x):=\inf\{\langle v, γ(0)\rangle +\int_0^TL(t, γ(t), {\dot γ}(t))\, dt; γ\in C^1([0, T), M); γ(T)=x\}, \] where $M=\mathbb{R}^d$, $T>0$, and $L:M\times M \to \mathbb{R}$ is a suitable Lagrangian. We also consider the stochastic counterpart: \begin{align*}%\tag{$\star$} \underline{B}_T^s(μ,ν):=\inf\left\{\mathbb{E}\left[\langle V,X_0\rangle +\int_0^T L(t, X,β(t,X))\,dt\right]; X\in \mathcal{A}, V\simμ,X_T\sim ν\right\} \end{align*} where $\mathcal{A}$ is the set of stochastic processes satisfying $dX=β_X(t,X)\,dt+ dW_t,$ for some drift $β_X(t,X)$, and where $W_t$ is $σ(X_s:0\le s\le t)$-Brownian motion. While inf-convolution allows us to easily obtain Hopf-Lax formulas on Wasserstein space for cost minimizing transports, this is not the case for total cost maximizing transports, which actually are sup-inf problems. However, in the case where the Lagrangian $L$ is jointly convex on phase space, Bolza-type dualities --well known in the deterministic case but novel in the stochastic case--transform sup-inf problems to sup-sup settings. Hopf-Lax formulas relate optimal ballistic transports to those associated with dynamic fixed-end transports studied by Bernard-Buffoni and Fathi-Figalli in the deterministic case, and by Mikami-Thieullen in the stochastic setting. We also write Eulerian formulations and point to links with the theory of mean field games.

math.AP

On Optimal Stochastic Ballistic Transports

For a given Lagrangian $L:[0,T]\times M\times M^\ast\rightarrow \mathbb{R}_+$ and probability measures $μ\in\mathcal{P}(M^\ast)$, $ν\in \mathcal{P}(M)$, we introduce the stochastic ballistic transportation problems \begin{align}\tag{$\star$} \underline{B}(μ,ν):=\inf\left\{\mathbb{E}\left[\langle V,X_0\rangle +\int_0^T L(t,X,β(t,X))\,dt\right]\middle\rvert V\simμ,X_T\sim ν\right\}\\\tag{$\star\star$} \overline{B}(ν,μ):=\sup\left\{\mathbb{E}\left[\langle V,X_T\rangle -\int_0^T L(t,X,β(t,X))\,dt\right]\middle\rvert V\simμ,X_0\sim ν\right\} \end{align} where $X$ is a diffusion process with drift $β$. This cost is based on the stochastic optimal transport problem presented by Mikami and the deterministic ballistic transport introduced by Ghoussoub. We obtain a Kantorovich-style duality result that reformulates this problem in terms of solutions to the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation \begin{equation*} \frac{\partialϕ}{\partial t}+\frac{1}{2}Δϕ+H(t,x,\nablaϕ)=0, \end{equation*} and show how optimal processes may be thereby attained.

math.AP

A Fast Algorithm for Finding Point Sources in the Fermi Data Stream: FermiFAST

We present a new and efficient algorithm for finding point sources in the photon event data stream from the Fermi Gamma-Ray Space Telescope, FermiFAST. The key advantage of FermiFAST is that it constructs a catalogue of potential sources very fast by arranging the photon data in a hierarchical data structure. Using this structure FermiFAST rapidly finds the photons that could have originated from a potential gamma-ray source. It calculates a likehihood ratio for the contribution of the potential source using the angular distribution of the photons within the region of interest. It can find within a few minutes the most significant half of the Fermi Third Point Source catalogue (3FGL) with nearly 80\% purity from the four years of data used to construct the catalogue. If a higher purity sample is desirable, one can achieve a sample that includes the most significant third of the Fermi 3FGL with only five percent of the sources unassociated with Fermi sources. Outside the galaxy plane, all but eight of the 580 FermiFAST detections are associated with 3FGL sources. And of these eight, six yield significant detections of greater than five sigma when a further binned likelihood analysis is performed. This software allows for rapid exploration of the Fermi data, simulation of the source detection to calculate the selection function of various sources and the errors in the obtained parameters of the sources detected.

astro-ph.IM

Cosmic Strings and the Origin of Globular Clusters

We hypothesize that cosmic string loops are the seeds about which globular clusters accrete. Fixing the cosmic string tension by demanding that the peak in the distribution of masses of objects accreting onto string loops agrees with the peak in the observed mass distribution of globular clusters in our Milky Way galaxy, we then compute the expected number density and mass function of globular clusters, and compare with observations. Our hypothesis naturally explains why globular clusters are the oldest and most dense objects in a galaxy, and why they are found in the halo of the galaxy.

astro-ph.CO