SearcharxivSearch

arXiv subjects

Alonso Silva

Publications and source records attributed to Alonso Silva.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Thinking Before Constraining: A Unified Decoding Framework for Large Language Models

Natural generation allows Large Language Models (LLMs) to produce free-form responses with rich reasoning, yet the lack of structure makes outputs difficult to verify. Conversely, constrained decoding ensures standardized formats but can inadvertently restrict reasoning capabilities by imposing constraints too early in the generation process. We propose a hybrid approach, namely In-Writing, that combines free-form reasoning and structured generation in a single call. The model first performs unconstrained reasoning and only applies structured decoding after a trigger token is generated, explicitly decoupling reasoning from formatting. We establish that our trigger-token strategies are able to virtually eradicate premature triggering, a failure mode in which constrained decoding interrupts on-going reasoning. Evaluations across diverse datasets covering classification and reasoning tasks demonstrate that our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art by achieving accuracy gains of up to 27% over natural generation. Our code are available at: https://github.com/Nokia-Bell-Labs/InWriting.

cs.CL

Certainty-Guided Reasoning in Large Language Models: A Dynamic Thinking Budget Approach

Large reasoning language models are typically run with fixed inference budgets, which can waste computation or terminate reasoning prematurely. We introduce Certainty-Guided Reasoning (CGR), a model-agnostic adaptive inference procedure that periodically probes whether the current reasoning supports a confident final answer and terminates early once a target certainty threshold is reached, otherwise continuing until the end-of-thinking token or the budget limit. Certainty is estimated from the model's predicted probabilities over the answer tokens, yielding a lightweight stopping criterion. On AIME2025, CGR preserves baseline accuracy while reducing token usage, providing a tunable certainty-efficiency trade-off that can eliminate millions of tokens in aggregate. Across 64 random seeds, CGR exhibits consistent behavior. We also introduce a Grade metric that penalizes incorrect answers and permits abstention, capturing risk-sensitive performance. Results show that CGR improves Grade by abstaining when certainty remains low.

cs.AI

Structured Thinking Matters: Improving LLMs Generalization in Causal Inference Tasks

Despite remarkable advances in the field, LLMs remain unreliable in distinguishing causation from correlation. Recent results from the Corr2Cause dataset benchmark reveal that state-of-the-art LLMs -- such as GPT-4 (F1 score: 29.08) -- only marginally outperform random baselines (Random Uniform, F1 score: 20.38), indicating limited capacity of generalization. To tackle this limitation, we propose a novel structured approach: rather than directly answering causal queries, we provide the model with the capability to structure its thinking by guiding the model to build a structured knowledge graph, systematically encoding the provided correlational premises, to answer the causal queries. This intermediate representation significantly enhances the model's causal capabilities. Experiments on the test subset of the Corr2Cause dataset benchmark with Qwen3-32B model (reasoning model) show substantial gains over standard direct prompting methods, improving F1 scores from 32.71 to 48.26 (over 47.5% relative increase), along with notable improvements in precision and recall. These results underscore the effectiveness of providing the model with the capability to structure its thinking and highlight its promising potential for broader generalization across diverse causal inference tasks.

cs.AI

Large Language Models Playing Mixed Strategy Nash Equilibrium Games

Generative artificial intelligence (Generative AI), and in particular Large Language Models (LLMs) have gained significant popularity among researchers and industrial communities, paving the way for integrating LLMs in different domains, such as robotics, telecom, and healthcare. In this paper, we study the intersection of game theory and generative artificial intelligence, focusing on the capabilities of LLMs to find the Nash equilibrium in games with a mixed strategy Nash equilibrium and no pure strategy Nash equilibrium (that we denote mixed strategy Nash equilibrium games). The study reveals a significant enhancement in the performance of LLMs when they are equipped with the possibility to run code and are provided with a specific prompt to incentivize them to do so. However, our research also highlights the limitations of LLMs when the randomization strategy of the game is not easy to deduce. It is evident that while LLMs exhibit remarkable proficiency in well-known standard games, their performance dwindles when faced with slight modifications of the same games. This paper aims to contribute to the growing body of knowledge on the intersection of game theory and generative artificial intelligence while providing valuable insights into LLMs strengths and weaknesses. It also underscores the need for further research to overcome the limitations of LLMs, particularly in dealing with even slightly more complex scenarios, to harness their full potential.

cs.GT

Experimental Comparison of Ensemble Methods and Time-to-Event Analysis Models Through Integrated Brier Score and Concordance Index

Time-to-event analysis is a branch of statistics that has increased in popularity during the last decades due to its many application fields, such as predictive maintenance, customer churn prediction and population lifetime estimation. In this paper, we review and compare the performance of several prediction models for time-to-event analysis. These consist of semi-parametric and parametric statistical models, in addition to machine learning approaches. Our study is carried out on three datasets and evaluated in two different scores (the integrated Brier score and concordance index). Moreover, we show how ensemble methods, which surprisingly have not yet been much studied in time-to-event analysis, can improve the prediction accuracy and enhance the robustness of the prediction performance. We conclude the analysis with a simulation experiment in which we evaluate the factors influencing the performance ranking of the methods using both scores.

cs.LG

Experimental Comparison of Semi-parametric, Parametric, and Machine Learning Models for Time-to-Event Analysis Through the Concordance Index

In this paper, we make an experimental comparison of semi-parametric (Cox proportional hazards model, Aalen's additive regression model), parametric (Weibull AFT model), and machine learning models (Random Survival Forest, Gradient Boosting with Cox Proportional Hazards Loss, DeepSurv) through the concordance index on two different datasets (PBC and GBCSG2). We present two comparisons: one with the default hyper-parameters of these models and one with the best hyper-parameters found by randomized search.

cs.LG

Path Planning Problems with Side Observations-When Colonels Play Hide-and-Seek

Resource allocation games such as the famous Colonel Blotto (CB) and Hide-and-Seek (HS) games are often used to model a large variety of practical problems, but only in their one-shot versions. Indeed, due to their extremely large strategy space, it remains an open question how one can efficiently learn in these games. In this work, we show that the online CB and HS games can be cast as path planning problems with side-observations (SOPPP): at each stage, a learner chooses a path on a directed acyclic graph and suffers the sum of losses that are adversarially assigned to the corresponding edges; and she then receives semi-bandit feedback with side-observations (i.e., she observes the losses on the chosen edges plus some others). We propose a novel algorithm, EXP3-OE, the first-of-its-kind with guaranteed efficient running time for SOPPP without requiring any auxiliary oracle. We provide an expected-regret bound of EXP3-OE in SOPPP matching the order of the best benchmark in the literature. Moreover, we introduce additional assumptions on the observability model under which we can further improve the regret bounds of EXP3-OE. We illustrate the benefit of using EXP3-OE in SOPPP by applying it to the online CB and HS games.

cs.GT

Approximate Equilibria in Generalized Colonel Blotto and Generalized Lottery Blotto Games

In the Colonel Blotto game, two players with a fixed budget simultaneously allocate their resources across n battlefields to maximize the aggregate value gained from the battlefields where they have the higher allocation. Despite its long-standing history and important applications, the Colonel Blotto game still lacks a complete Nash equilibrium characterization in its most general form where players are asymmetric and battlefields' values are heterogeneous across battlefields and different between the two players---this is called the Generalized Colonel Blotto game. In this work, we propose a simply-constructed class of strategies---the independently uniform strategies---and we prove that they are approximate equilibria of the Generalized Colonel Blotto game; moreover, we characterize the approximation error according to the game's parameters. We also consider an extension called the Generalized Lottery Blotto game, with stochastic winner-determination rules allowing more flexibility in modeling practical contests. We prove that the proposed strategies are also approximate equilibria of the Generalized Lottery Blotto game.

cs.GT

Combinatorial Bandits for Sequential Learning in Colonel Blotto Games

The Colonel Blotto game is a renowned resource allocation problem with a long-standing literature in game theory (almost 100 years). However, its scope of application is still restricted by the lack of studies on the incomplete-information situations where a learning model is needed. In this work, we propose and study a regret-minimization model where a learner repeatedly plays the Colonel Blotto game against several adversaries. At each stage, the learner distributes her budget of resources on a fixed number of battlefields to maximize the aggregate value of battlefields she wins; each battlefield being won if there is no adversary that has higher allocation. We focus on the bandit feedback setting. We first show that it can be modeled as a path planning problem. It is then possible to use the classical COMBAND algorithm to guarantee a sub-linear regret in terms of time horizon, but this entails two fundamental challenges: (i) the computation is inefficient due to the huge size of the action set, and (ii) the standard exploration distribution leads to a loose guarantee in practice. To address the first, we construct a modified algorithm that can be efficiently implemented by applying a dynamic programming technique called weight pushing; for the second, we propose methods optimizing the exploration distribution to improve the regret bound. Finally, we implement our proposed algorithm and perform numerical experiments that show the regret improvement in practice.

cs.GT

Path Planning Problems with Side Observations-When Colonels Play Hide-and-Seek

Resource allocation games such as the famous Colonel Blotto (CB) and Hide-and-Seek (HS) games are often used to model a large variety of practical problems, but only in their one-shot versions. Indeed, due to their extremely large strategy space, it remains an open question how one can efficiently learn in these games. In this work, we show that the online CB and HS games can be cast as path planning problems with side-observations (SOPPP): at each stage, a learner chooses a path on a directed acyclic graph and suffers the sum of losses that are adversarially assigned to the corresponding edges; and she then receives semi-bandit feedback with side-observations (i.e., she observes the losses on the chosen edges plus some others). We propose a novel algorithm, EXP3-OE, the first-of-its-kind with guaranteed efficient running time for SOPPP without requiring any auxiliary oracle. We provide an expected-regret bound of EXP3-OE in SOPPP matching the order of the best benchmark in the literature. Moreover, we introduce additional assumptions on the observability model under which we can further improve the regret bounds of EXP3-OE. We illustrate the benefit of using EXP3-OE in SOPPP by applying it to the online CB and HS games.

cs.GT

Novel market approach for locally balancing renewable energy production and flexible demand

Future electricity distribution grids will host a considerable share of variable renewable energy sources and local storage resources. Moreover, they will face new load structures due for example to the growth of the electric vehicle market. These trends raise the need for new paradigms for distribution grids operation, in which Distribution System Operators will increasingly rely on demand side flexibility and households will progressively become prosumers playing an active role on smart grid energy management. However, in present energy management architectures, the lack of coordination among actors limits the capability of the grid to enable the mentioned trends. In this paper we tackle this problem by proposing an architecture that enables households to autonomously exchange energy blocks and flexibility services with neighbors, operators and market actors. The solution is based on a blockchain transactive platform. We focus on a market application, where households can trade energy with their neighbors, aimed to locally balancing renewable energy production. We propose a market mechanism and dynamic transport prices that provide an incentive for households to locally manage energy resources in a way that responds to both pro-sumer and operator needs. We evaluate the impact of such markets through comprehensive simulations using power flow analysis and realistic load profiles, providing valuable insight for the design of appropriate mechanisms and incentives.

cs.GT

Budget Allocation in Binary Opinion Dynamics

In this article we study the allocation of a budget to promote an opinion in a group of agents. We assume that their opinion dynamics are based on the well-known voter model. We are interested in finding the most efficient use of a budget over time in order to manipulate a social network. We address the problem using the theory of discounted Markov decision processes. Our contributions can be summarized as follows: (i) we introduce the discounted Markov decision process in our cases, (ii) we present the corresponding Bellman equations, and, (iii) we solve the Bellman equations via backward programming. This work is a step towards providing a solid formulation of the budget allocation in social networks.

cs.GT

Evolution of Social Power for Opinion Dynamics Networks

This article studies the evolution of opinions and interpersonal influence structures in a group of agents as they discuss a sequence of issues, each of which follows an opinion dynamics model. In this work, we propose a general opinion dynamics model and an evolution of interpersonal influence structures based on the model of reflected appraisals proposed by Friedkin. Our contributions can be summarized as follows: (i) we introduce a model of opinion dynamics and evolution of interpersonal influence structures between issues viewed as a best response cost minimization to the neighbor's actions, (ii) we show that DeGroot's and Friedkin-Johnsen's models of opinion dynamics and their evolution of interpersonal influence structures are particular cases of our proposed model, and (iii) we prove the existence of an equilibrium. This work is a step towards providing a solid formulation of the evolution of opinions and interpersonal influence structures over a sequence of issues.

cs.SI

Optimal Control of Storage Regeneration with Repair Codes

High availability of containerized applications requires to perform robust storage of applications' state. Since basic replication techniques are extremely costly at scale, storage space requirements can be reduced by means of erasure or repairing codes. In this paper we address storage regeneration using repair codes, a robust distributed storage technique with no need to fully restore the whole state in case of failure. In fact, only the lost servers' content is replaced. To do so, new cleanslate storage units are made operational at a cost for activating new storage servers and a cost for the transfer of repair data. Our goal is to guarantee maximal availability of containers' state files by a given deadline. activation of servers and communication cost. Upon a fault occurring at a subset of the storage servers, we aim at ensuring that they are repaired by a given deadline. We introduce a controlled fluid model and derive the optimal activation policy to replace servers under such correlated faults. The solution concept is the optimal control of regeneration via the Pontryagin minimum principle. We characterise feasibility conditions and we prove that the optimal policy is of threshold type. Numerical results describe how to apply the model for system dimensioning and show the tradeoff between

cs.IT

Green Base Station Placement for Microwave Backhaul Links

Wireless mobile backhaul networks have been proposed as a substitute in cases in which wired alternatives are not available due to economical or geographical reasons. In this work, we study the location problem of base stations in a given region where mobile terminals are distributed according to a certain probability density function and the base stations communicate through microwave backhaul links. Using results of optimal transport theory, we provide the optimal asymptotic distribution of base stations in the considered setting by minimizing the total power over the whole network.

cs.IT

A multi-layer market for vehicle-to-grid energy trading in the smart grid

In this work, we propose a multi-layer market for vehicle-to-grid energy trading. In the macro layer, we consider a double auction mechanism, under which the utility company act as an auctioneer and energy buyers and sellers interact. This double auction mechanism is strategy-proof and converges asymptotically. In the micro layer, the aggregators, which are the sellers in the macro layer, are paid with commissions to sell the energy of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and to maximize their utilities. We analyze the interaction between the macro and micro layers and study some simplified cases. Depending on the elasticity of supply and demand, the utility is analyzed under different scenarios. Simulation results show that our approach can significantly increase the utility of PHEVs.

cs.GT

Miuz: measuring the impact of disconnecting a node

In this article we present Miuz, a robustness index for complex networks. Miuz measures the impact of disconnecting a node from the network while comparing the sizes of the remaining connected components. Strictly speaking, Miuz for a node is defined as the inverse of the size of the largest connected component divided by the sum of the sizes of the remaining ones. We tested our index in attack strategies where the nodes are disconnected in decreasing order of a specified metric. We considered Miuz and other well-known centrality measures such as betweenness, degree , and harmonic centrality. All of these metrics were compared regarding the behavior of the robust-ness (R-index) during the attacks. In an attempt to simulate the internet backbone, the attacks were performed in complex networks with power-law degree distributions (scale-free networks). Preliminary results show that attacks based on disconnecting a few number of nodes Miuz are more dangerous (decreasing the robustness) than the same attacks based on other centrality measures. We believe that Miuz, as well as other measures based on the size of the largest connected component, provides a good addition to other robustness metrics for complex networks.

cs.SI

Opinion Manipulation in Social Networks

In this work, we are interested in finding the most efficient use of a budget to promote an opinion by paying agents within a group to supplant their true opinions. We model opinions as continuous scalars ranging from 0 to 1 with 1 (0) representing extremely positive (negative) opinion. We focus on asymmetric confidence between agents. The iterative update of an agent corresponds to the best response to other agents' actions. The resulting confidence matrix can be seen as an equivalent Markov chain. We provide simple and efficient algorithms to solve this problem and we show through an example how to solve the stated problem in practice.

cs.GT