arXiv subjects

Althea V. Moorhead

Publications and source records attributed to Althea V. Moorhead.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

A cornucopia of null results: A statistical analysis of fireballs reported to the American Meteor Society

In March 2026, the American Meteor Society announced that a "surge" of large fireballs had been reported to their website in the first quarter of the year, and that these fireballs had certain characteristics (radiant clustering and reports of delayed sound). We find this data set to be an excellent use case for Poisson regression, which, in our opinion, is underutilized in meteor astronomy. This report serves as a brief primer on Poisson regression and related statistical techniques as well as an analysis of AMS fireball counts. We find that the number of events reported in early 2026 is in line with the overall pattern of activity. We also find little evidence of the "February fireballs" phenomenon.

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arXiv2026

Meteor statistics I: The distribution of instrumental magnitudes

The distribution of meteor magnitudes is known to follow an exponential distribution, where the base of this distribution is called the population index. The distribution of observed magnitudes preserves this behavior, but is truncated by the detection threshold. If both the population index and detection threshold can be determined, observed meteor rates can be converted to fluxes and extrapolated to any desired brightness or size. We argue that the distribution of observed or instrumental meteor magnitudes is best modeled as an exponentially modified Gaussian (exGaussian) distribution. This is for three reasons: first, an exGaussian distribution is the natural result of random variations in detection threshold and/or post-detection measurement errors in magnitude. Second, an exGaussian distribution provides a better fit to the magnitude distribution than all other competing distributions in the literature; we demonstrate this using both a set of faint optical meteor magnitudes and a set of radar meteor echo amplitudes. Finally, the population index, mean detection threshold, and random variation/error terms are easily extracted from the best-fit parameters of an exGaussian distribution.

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arXiv2025

Modeling the meteoroid environment far from the ecliptic plane

We describe a new version (numbered 3.1) of NASA's Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM) in which we extend the model to handle locations that lie more than a few degrees in latitude off the ecliptic plane. We provide our algorithms for computing the spatial density and directionality of meteoroids far from the ecliptic and discuss their applications. In particular, we demonstrate how correct modeling of the out-of-ecliptic environment is critical for accurately assessing the risk posed by meteoroids to solar observation missions such as Solaris.

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arXiv2024

The threshold at which a meteor shower becomes hazardous to spacecraft

Although the risk posed to spacecraft due to meteoroid impacts is dominated by sporadic meteoroids, meteor showers can raise this risk for short periods of time. NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office issues meteor shower forecasts that describe these periods of elevated risk, primarily for the purpose of helping plan extravehicular activities. These forecasts are constructed using a list of meteor shower parameters that has evolved over time to include newly discovered showers and incorporate improved measurements of their characteristics. However, at this point in time, more than a thousand meteor showers have been reported by researchers, many of which are extremely minor, are unconfirmed, or lack measurements of critical parameters. Thus, a comprehensive approach is no longer feasible. In this report we present a quantitative criterion for a potentially hazardous meteor shower and apply this criterion to the list of established meteor showers in order to determine which showers should be included in our annual forecasts.

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arXiv2024

A library of meteoroid environments encountered by spacecraft in the inner solar system

NASA's Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM) is designed to provide aerospace engineers with an accurate description of potentially hazardous meteoroids. It accepts a spacecraft trajectory as input and its output files describe the flux, speed, directionality, and density of microgram- to gram-sized meteoroids relative to the provided trajectory. MEM provides this information at a fairly fine level of detail in order to support detailed risk calculations. However, engineers and scientists in the very early planning stages of a mission may not yet have developed a trajectory or acquired the tools to analyze environment data. Therefore, we have developed an online library of sample MEM runs that allow new users or overloaded mission planners to get a quick feel for the characteristics of the meteoroid environment. This library provides both visualizations of these runs and input files that allow users to replicate them exactly. We also discuss the number of state vectors needed to obtain an accurate representation of the environment encountered along our sample trajectories, and outline a process for verifying that any given trajectory is adequately sampled.

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arXiv2024

A reference meteor magnitude for intercomparable fluxes

The rate at which meteors pass through Earth's atmosphere has been measured or estimated many times over; existing flux measurements span at least 12 astronomical magnitudes, or roughly five decades in mass. Unfortunately, the common practice of scaling flux to a universal reference magnitude of +6.5 tends to collapse the magnitude or mass dimension. Furthermore, results from different observation networks can appear discrepant due solely to the use of different assumed population indices, and readers cannot resolve this discrepancy without access to magnitude data. We present an alternate choice of reference magnitude that is representative of the observed meteors and minimizes the dependence of flux on population index. We apply this choice to measurements of recent Orionid meteor shower fluxes to illustrate its usefulness for synthesizing independent flux measurements.

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arXiv2024

How long-lived grains dominate the shape of the Zodiacal Cloud

Grain-grain collisions shape the 3-dimensional size and velocity distribution of the inner Zodiacal Cloud and the impact rates of dust on inner planets, yet they remain the least understood sink of zodiacal dust grains. For the first time, we combine the collisional grooming method combined with a dynamical meteoroid model of Jupiter-family comets (JFCs) that covers four orders of magnitude in particle diameter to investigate the consequences of grain-grain collisions in the inner Zodiacal Cloud. We compare this model to a suite of observational constraints from meteor radars, the Infrared Astronomical Satellite (IRAS), mass fluxes at Earth, and inner solar probes, and use it to derive the population and collisional strength parameters for the JFC dust cloud. We derive a critical specific energy of $Q^*_D=5\times10^5 \pm 4\times10^5 R_\mathrm{met}^{-0.24}$ J kg$^{-1}$ for particles from Jupiter-family comet particles, making them 2-3 orders of magnitude more resistant to collisions than previously assumed. We find that the differential power law size index $-4.2\pm0.1$ for particles generated by JFCs provides a good match to observed data. Our model provides a good match to the mass production rates derived from the Parker Solar Probe observations and their scaling with the heliocentric distance. The higher resistance to collisions of dust particles might have strong implications to models of collisions in solar and exo-solar dust clouds. The migration via Poynting-Roberson drag might be more important for denser clouds, the mass production rates of astrophysical debris disks might be overestimated, and the mass of the source populations might be underestimated. Our models and code are freely available online.

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arXiv2022

Meteor shower radiant dispersions in Global Meteor Network data

Meteor showers occur when streams of meteoroids originating from a common source intersect the Earth. There will be small dissimilarities between the direction of motion of different meteoroids within a stream, and these small differences will act to broaden the radiant, or apparent point of origin, of the shower. This dispersion in meteor radiant can be particularly important when considering the effect of the Earth's gravity on the stream, as it limits the degree of enhancement of the stream's flux due to gravitational focusing. In this paper, we present measurements of the radiant dispersion of twelve showers using observations from the Global Meteor Network. We find that the median offset of individual meteors from the shower radiant ranges from 0.32$^\circ$ for the eta Aquariids to 1.41$^\circ$ for the Southern Taurids. We also find that there is a small but statistically significant drift in Sun-centered ecliptic radiant and/or geocentric speed over time for most showers. Finally, we compare radiant dispersion with shower duration and find that, in contrast with previous results, the two quantities are not correlated in our data.

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arXiv2021

Iron Rain: measuring the occurrence rate and origin of small iron meteoroids at Earth

We report results of a four-year survey using Electron Multiplied Charged Coupled Device (EMCCD) cameras recording 34761 two-station video meteor events complete to a limiting magnitude of +6. The survey goal was to characterize probable iron meteoroids. Using only physical properties of the meteor trajectories including early peaking light curves, short luminous trajectories, and high energies accumulated per area at beginning, we identified 1068 iron meteors. Our iron candidates are most abundant at slow speeds < 15 km/s, where they make up approximately 20% of the mm-sized meteoroid population. They are overwhelmingly on asteroidal orbits, and have particularly low orbital eccentricities and smaller semi-major axes when compared to non-irons between 10-20 km/s. Our iron population appears to be more numerous at fainter magnitudes, comprising 15% of slow (10-15 km/s) meteors with peak brightness of +3 with the fraction rising to 25% at +6 to +7, our survey limit. The iron orbits are most consistent with an asteroidal source and are in highly evolved orbits, suggesting long collisional lifetimes (107 years). Metal-rich chondrules (nodules) found in abundance in EL Chondrites are one possible source for this population. We also propose a possible technique using R-band colours to more robustly identify fainter iron meteors with very high confidence.

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arXiv2020

Forbidden mass ranges for shower meteoroids

Burns et al. (1979) use the parameter beta to describe the ratio of radiation pressure to gravity experienced by a small particle in the solar system. The central potential that these particles experience is effectively reduced by a factor of (1 - beta), lowering the escape velocity. Burns et al. (1979) also provide a simple expression for the value of beta at which particles ejected from a comet follow parabolic orbits and thus leave the solar system; this paper expands on this to calculate critical beta values that take ejection velocity into account. We first derive an expression for the speed at which particles are ejected from a comet that is valid at all particle sizes. We then calculate beta values for both idealized and real materials to determine which particles will be lost from meteor streams. We perform these calculations for cometary ejecta leading, trailing, and following the parent comet's nucleus for 10 major meteor showers. These values bound mass regimes within which meteoroids are ejected from the solar system and therefore cannot contribute to meteor showers.

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arXiv2020

Realistic gravitational focusing of meteoroid streams

The number density and flux of a meteoroid stream is enhanced near a massive body due to the phenomenon known as gravitational focusing. The greatest enhancement occurs directly opposite the massive body from the stream radiant: as an observer approaches this location, the degree of focusing is unbound for a perfectly collimated stream. However, real meteoroid streams exhibit some dispersion in radiant and speed that will act to eliminate this singularity. In this paper, we derive an analytic approximation for this smoothing that can be used in meteoroid environment models and is based on real measurements of meteor shower radiant dispersion.

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arXiv2019

Meteor shower activity profiles and the use of orbital dissimilarity (D) criteria

Orbital dissimilarity, or D, criteria are often used to select members of a meteor shower from a set of meteor observations. These criteria provide a quantitative description of the degree to which two orbits differ; if the degree of dissimilarity between a shower's reference orbit and an individual meteor does not exceed a selected threshold, the meteor is considered to be a member of that shower. However, members of a meteor shower tend to disperse in longitude of the ascending node (and thus in solar longitude) while preserving a common Sun-centered ecliptic radiant. Employing dissimilarity criteria to judge shower membership may therefore make the shower appear briefer than it actually is. We demonstrate this effect for two simulated meteor showers and assess the maximum permitted deviation in solar longitude as a function of radiant and velocity measurement error.

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arXiv2019

NASA's Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM) 3 and its ability to replicate spacecraft impact rates

Meteoroids pose one of the largest risks to spacecraft outside of low Earth orbit. In order to correctly predict the rate at which meteoroids impact and damage spacecraft, environment models must describe the mass, directionality, velocity, and density distributions of meteoroids. NASA's Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM) is one such model; MEM 3 is an updated version of the code that better captures the correlation between directionality and velocity and incorporates a bulk density distribution. This paper describes MEM 3 and compares its predictions with the rate of large particle impacts seen on the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) and the Pegasus II and III satellites.

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arXiv2019

Meteor shower forecasting in near-Earth space

NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) produces an annual meteor shower forecast in order to help spacecraft operators assess the risk posed by meteoroid streams. Previously, this forecast focused on the International Space Station and therefore reported meteoroid fluxes and enhancement factors at an orbital altitude of 400 km. This paper presents an updated forecast algorithm that has an improved calculation of the flux enhancement produced by showers and can calculate fluxes at any selected Earth or lunar orbital altitude. Finally, we discuss and generate forecasted fluxes for the 2018 Draconid meteor shower, which is expected to produce meteoroid flux enhancements near the Sun-Earth L1 and L2 Lagrange points but not at Earth.

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arXiv2018

The Draconid meteoroid stream 2018: prospects for satellite impact detection

Predictions of the 2018 Draconid activity at the Earth and the Sun-Earth L1 and L2 Lagrange points are presented. Numerical simulations of the meteoroids' ejection and evolution from comet 21P/Giacobini-Zinner are performed with a careful implementation of the results analysis and weighting. Model meteoroid fluxes at Earth are derived using as calibration the main peak date, intensity, and shower profiles of previous Draconid outbursts. Good agreement between the model and measurements is found for the 1933, 1946, 1998 and 2011 showers for a meteoroid size distribution index at ejection of about 2.6. A less accurate estimate of the peak time for the 1985, 2005 and 2012 predominantly radio-observed outbursts was found by considering the contribution of individual ejection epochs, while the model peak flux estimate was found to agree with observations to within a factor 3. Despite the promising geometrical configuration in 2018, our simulations predict low Draconid activity is expected on Earth, with a maximum of less than a few tens of meteors per hour around midnight the 9th of October, confirming previous models. At the L1 and L2 Lagrange points, however, the flux estimates suggest a 'meteoroid storm'. The Gaia spacecraft at the L2 region might be able to detect small (~ μg) Draconid meteoroid impacts centered in a two-hour window around 18h30 UT on the 8th of October, 2018.

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arXiv2015

Performance of D-criteria in isolating meteor showers from the sporadic background in an optical data set

Separating meteor showers from the sporadic meteor background is critical for the study of both showers and the sporadic complex. The linkage of meteors to meteor showers, to parent bodies, and to other meteors is done using measures of orbital similarity. These measures often take the form of so-called D-parameters and are generally paired with some cutoff value within which two orbits are considered related. The appropriate cutoff value can depend on the size of the data-set (Southworth & Hawkins 1963), the sporadic contribution within the observed size range (Jopek 1995), or the inclination of the shower (Galligan 2001). If the goal is to minimize sporadic contamination of the extracted shower, the cutoff value should also reflect the strength of the shower compared to the local sporadic background. In this paper, we present a method for determining, on a per-shower basis, the orbital similarity cutoff value that corresponds to a chosen acceptable false-positive rate. This method also assists us in distinguishing which showers are significant within a set of data. We apply these methods to optical meteor observations from the NASA All-Sky and Southern Ontario Meteor Networks.

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arXiv2012

Transit Timing Observations from Kepler: IV. Confirmation of 4 Multiple Planet Systems by Simple Physical Models

Eighty planetary systems of two or more planets are known to orbit stars other than the Sun. For most, the data can be sufficiently explained by non-interacting Keplerian orbits, so the dynamical interactions of these systems have not been observed. Here we present 4 sets of lightcurves from the Kepler spacecraft, which each show multiple planets transiting the same star. Departure of the timing of these transits from strict periodicity indicates the planets are perturbing each other: the observed timing variations match the forcing frequency of the other planet. This confirms that these objects are in the same system. Next we limit their masses to the planetary regime by requiring the system remain stable for astronomical timescales. Finally, we report dynamical fits to the transit times, yielding possible values for the planets' masses and eccentricities. As the timespan of timing data increases, dynamical fits may allow detailed constraints on the systems' architectures, even in cases for which high-precision Doppler follow-up is impractical.

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arXiv2012

Transit Timing Observations from Kepler: II. Confirmation of Two Multiplanet Systems via a Non-parametric Correlation Analysis

We present a new method for confirming transiting planets based on the combination of transit timingn variations (TTVs) and dynamical stability. Correlated TTVs provide evidence that the pair of bodies are in the same physical system. Orbital stability provides upper limits for the masses of the transiting companions that are in the planetary regime. This paper describes a non-parametric technique for quantifying the statistical significance of TTVs based on the correlation of two TTV data sets. We apply this method to an analysis of the transit timing variations of two stars with multiple transiting planet candidates identified by Kepler. We confirm four transiting planets in two multiple planet systems based on their TTVs and the constraints imposed by dynamical stability. An additional three candidates in these same systems are not confirmed as planets, but are likely to be validated as real planets once further observations and analyses are possible. If all were confirmed, these systems would be near 4:6:9 and 2:4:6:9 period commensurabilities. Our results demonstrate that TTVs provide a powerful tool for confirming transiting planets, including low-mass planets and planets around faint stars for which Doppler follow-up is not practical with existing facilities. Continued Kepler observations will dramatically improve the constraints on the planet masses and orbits and provide sensitivity for detecting additional non-transiting planets. If Kepler observations were extended to eight years, then a similar analysis could likely confirm systems with multiple closely spaced, small transiting planets in or near the habitable zone of solar-type stars.

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