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Alvaro Orsi

Publications and source records attributed to Alvaro Orsi.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2024

An AI-enabled Agent-Based Model and Its Application in Measles Outbreak Simulation for New Zealand

Agent Based Models (ABMs) have emerged as a powerful tool for investigating complex social interactions, particularly in the context of public health and infectious disease investigation. In an effort to enhance the conventional ABM, enabling automated model calibration and reducing the computational resources needed for scaling up the model, we have developed a tensorized and differentiable agent-based model by coupling Graph Neural Network (GNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network. The model was employed to investigate the 2019 measles outbreak occurred in New Zealand, demonstrating a promising ability to accurately simulate the outbreak dynamics, particularly during the peak period of repeated cases. This paper shows that by leveraging the latest Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology and the capabilities of traditional ABMs, we gain deeper insights into the dynamics of infectious disease outbreaks. This, in turn, helps us make more informed decision when developing effective strategies that strike a balance between managing outbreaks and minimizing disruptions to everyday life.

cs.MA↗
arXiv2020

The assembly bias of emission line galaxies

The next generation of spectroscopic surveys will target emission-line galaxies (ELGs) to produce constraints on cosmological parameters. We study the large scale structure traced by ELGs using a combination of a semi-analytical model of galaxy formation, a code that computes the nebular emission from HII regions using the properties of the interstellar medium, and a large-volume, high-resolution N-body simulation. We consider fixed number density samples where galaxies are selected by either their H$α$, [OIII]$λ5007$ or [OII]$λλ3727-3729$ emission line luminosities. We investigate the assembly bias signatures of these samples, and compare them to those of stellar mass and SFR selected samples. Interestingly, we find that the [OIII]- and [OII]-selected samples display scale-dependent bias on large scales and that their assembly bias signatures are also scale-dependent. Both these effects are more pronounced for lower number density samples. The [OIII] and [OII] emitters that contribute most to the scale dependence tend to have a low gas-phase metallicity and are preferentially found in low-density regions. We also measure the baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) feature and the $β$ parameter related to the growth rate of overdensities. We find a slight tendency for the BAO peak to shift toward smaller scales for [OII] emitters and that $β$ is scale-dependent at large scales. Our results suggest that ELG samples include environmental effects that should be modelled in order to remove potential systematic errors that could affect the estimation of cosmological parameters.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2020

J-PLUS: Unveiling the brightest-end of the Lyα luminosity function at 2.0<z<3.3 over 1000 deg^2

We present the photometric determination of the bright-end (L_Lya>10^43.5 erg/s) of the Lya luminosity function (LF) within four redshifts windows in the interval 2.2 10^43.3 erg/s) Lya-emitting candidates. We test our selection with two spectroscopic follow-up programs at the GTC telescope, confirming ~89% of the targets as line-emitting sources, with ~64% being genuine z~2.2 QSOs. We extend the 2.2 2 AGN/QSOs (likely dominant in our samples) are described by a structurally different LF than z>2 star-forming LAEs, namely with L^*_QSOs ~ 100 L^*_LAEs and Phi^*_QSOs ~ 10^-3 Phi^*_LAEs. Finally, our method identifies very efficiently as high-z line-emitters sources without previous spectroscopic confirmation, currently classified as stars (~2000 objects in each redshift bin, on average). Assuming a large predominance of Lya-emitting AGN/QSOs in our samples, this supports the scenario by which these are the most abundant class of z>2 Lya emitters at L_Lya>10^43.3 erg/s.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2019

J-PLUS: Synthetic galaxy catalogues with emission lines for photometric surveys

We present a synthetic galaxy lightcone specially designed for narrow-band optical photometric surveys. To reduce time-discreteness effects, unlike previous works, we directly include the lightcone construction in the \texttt{L-Galaxies} semi-analytic model applied to the subhalo merger trees of the {\tt Millennium} simulation. Additionally, we add a model for the nebular emission in star-forming regions, which is crucial for correctly predicting the narrow/medium-band photometry of galaxies. Explicitly, we consider, individually for each galaxy, the contribution of 9 different lines: $\rm Lyα$ (1216Å), \Hb (4861Å), \Ha (6563Å), {\oii} (3727Å, 3729Å), {\oiii} (4959Å, 5007Å), $\rm [\ion{Ne}{III}]$ (3870Å), {\oi} (6300Å), $\rm [\ion{N}{II}]$ (6548Å, 6583Å), and $\rm [\ion{S}{II}]$ (6717Å, 6731Å). We validate our lightcone by comparing galaxy number counts, angular clustering, and \Ha, \Hb, {\oii} and {\oiiiFd} luminosity functions to a compilation of observations. As an application of our mock lightcones, we generate catalogues tailored for J-PLUS, a large optical galaxy survey featuring 5 broad and 7 medium band filters. We study the ability of the survey to correctly identify, with a simple \textit{three filter method}, a population of emission-line galaxies at various redshifts. We show that the $4000Å$ break in the spectral energy distribution of galaxies can be misidentified as line emission. However, all significant excess (larger than 0.4 magnitudes) can be correctly and unambiguously attributed to emission line galaxies. Our catalogues are publicly released to facilitate their use in interpreting narrow-band surveys and for quantifying the impact of line emission in broad band photometry.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2019

ATLAS Probe: Breakthrough Science of Galaxy Evolution, Cosmology, Milky Way, and the Solar System

ATLAS (Astrophysics Telescope for Large Area Spectroscopy) is a concept for a NASA probe-class space mission. It is the spectroscopic follow-up mission to WFIRST, boosting its scientific return by obtaining deep NIR & MIR slit spectroscopy for most of the galaxies imaged by the WFIRST High Latitude Survey at z>0.5. ATLAS will measure accurate and precise redshifts for ~200M galaxies out to z=7 and beyond, and deliver spectra that enable a wide range of diagnostic studies of the physical properties of galaxies over most of cosmic history. ATLAS and WFIRST together will produce a definitive 3D map of the Universe over 2000 sq deg. ATLAS Science Goals are: (1) Discover how galaxies have evolved in the cosmic web of dark matter from cosmic dawn through the peak era of galaxy assembly. (2) Discover the nature of cosmic acceleration. (3) Probe the Milky Way's dust-enshrouded regions, reaching the far side of our Galaxy. (4) Discover the bulk compositional building blocks of planetesimals formed in the outer Solar System. These flow down to the ATLAS Scientific Objectives: (1A) Trace the relation between galaxies and dark matter with less than 10% shot noise on relevant scales at 1<z<7. (1B) Probe the physics of galaxy evolution at 1<z<7. (2) Obtain definitive measurements of dark energy and tests of General Relativity. (3) Measure the 3D structure and stellar content of the inner Milky Way to a distance of 25 kpc. (4) Detect and quantify the composition of 3,000 planetesimals in the outer Solar System. ATLAS is a 1.5m telescope with a FoV of 0.4 sq deg, and uses Digital Micro-mirror Devices (DMDs) as slit selectors. It has a spectroscopic resolution of R = 1000, and a wavelength range of 1-4 microns. ATLAS has an unprecedented spectroscopic capability based on DMDs, with a spectroscopic multiplex factor ~6,000. ATLAS is designed to fit within the NASA probe-class space mission cost envelope.

astro-ph.IM↗
arXiv2019

Observing Galaxy Evolution in the Context of Large-Scale Structure

Galaxies form and evolve in the context of their local and large-scale environments. Their baryonic content that we observe with imaging and spectroscopy is intimately connected to the properties of their dark matter halos, and to their location in the "cosmic web" of large-scale structure. Very large spectroscopic surveys of the local universe (e.g., SDSS and GAMA) measure galaxy positions (location within large-scale structure), statistical clustering (a direct constraint on dark matter halo masses), and spectral features (measuring physical conditions of the gas and stars within the galaxies, as well as internal velocities). Deep surveys with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) will revolutionize spectroscopic measurements of redshifts and spectral properties for galaxies out to the epoch of reionization, but with numerical statistics and over cosmic volumes that are too small to map large-scale structure and to constrain halo properties via clustering. Here, we consider advances in understanding galaxy evolution that would be enabled by very large spectroscopic surveys at high redshifts: very large numbers of galaxies (outstanding statistics) over large co-moving volumes (large-scale structure on all scales) over broad redshift ranges (evolution over most of cosmic history). The required observational facility can be established as part of the probe portfolio by NASA within the next decade.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2019

Illuminating the dark universe with a very high density galaxy redshift survey over a wide area

The nature of dark energy remains a profound mystery 20 years after the discovery of cosmic acceleration. A very high number density galaxy redshift survey over a wide area (HD GRS Wide) spanning the redshift range of 0.5<z<4 using the same tracer, carried out using massively parallel wide field multi-object slit spectroscopy from space, will provide definitive dark energy measurements with minimal observational systematics by design. The HD GRS Wide will illuminate the nature of dark energy, and lead to revolutionary advances in particle physics and cosmology. It will also trace the cosmic web of dark matter and provide key insight into large-scale structure in the Universe. The required observational facility can be established as part of the probe portfolio by NASA within the next decade.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2019

ATLAS Probe: Breakthrough Science of Galaxy Evolution, Cosmology, Milky Way, and the Solar System

ATLAS (Astrophysics Telescope for Large Area Spectroscopy) Probe is a concept for a NASA probe-class space mission. It is the follow-up space mission to WFIRST, boosting its scientific return by obtaining deep IR slit spectroscopy for 70% of all galaxies imaged by a 2000 sq deg WFIRST High Latitude Survey at z>0.5. ATLAS will measure accurate and precise redshifts for 200M galaxies out to z < 7, and deliver spectra that enable a wide range of diagnostic studies of the physical properties of galaxies over most of cosmic history. ATLAS Probe science spans four broad categories: (1) Revolutionizing galaxy evolution studies by tracing the relation between galaxies and dark matter from galaxy groups to cosmic voids and filaments, from the epoch of reionization through the peak era of galaxy assembly; (2) Opening a new window into the dark Universe by weighing the dark matter filaments using 3D weak lensing with spectroscopic redshifts, and obtaining definitive measurements of dark energy and modification of General Relativity using galaxy clustering; (3) Probing the Milky Way's dust-enshrouded regions, reaching the far side of our Galaxy; and (4) Exploring the formation history of the outer Solar System by characterizing Kuiper Belt Objects. ATLAS Probe is a 1.5m telescope with a field of view of 0.4 sq deg, and uses Digital Micro-mirror Devices (DMDs) as slit selectors. It has a spectroscopic resolution of R = 1000 over 1-4 microns, and a spectroscopic multiplex factor >5,000. ATLAS is designed to fit within the NASA probe-class space mission cost envelope; it has a single instrument, a telescope aperture that allows for a lighter launch vehicle, and mature technology. ATLAS Probe will lead to transformative science over the entire range of astrophysics: from galaxy evolution to the dark Universe, from Solar System objects to the dusty regions of the Milky Way.

astro-ph.IM↗
arXiv2016

Testing LSST Dither Strategies for Survey Uniformity and Large-Scale Structure Systematics

The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) will survey the southern sky from 2022--2032 with unprecedented detail. Since the observing strategy can lead to artifacts in the data, we investigate the effects of telescope-pointing offsets (called dithers) on the $r$-band coadded 5$σ$ depth yielded after the 10-year survey. We analyze this survey depth for several geometric patterns of dithers (e.g., random, hexagonal lattice, spiral) with amplitude as large as the radius of the LSST field-of-view, implemented on different timescales (per season, per night, per visit). Our results illustrate that per night and per visit dither assignments are more effective than per season. Also, we find that some dither geometries (e.g., hexagonal lattice) are particularly sensitive to the timescale on which the dithers are implemented, while others like random dithers perform well on all timescales. We then model the propagation of depth variations to artificial fluctuations in galaxy counts, which are a systematic for large-scale structure studies. We calculate the bias in galaxy counts caused by the observing strategy, accounting for photometric calibration uncertainties, dust extinction, and magnitude cuts; uncertainties in this bias limit our ability to account for structure induced by the observing strategy. We find that after 10 years of the LSST survey, the best dither strategies lead to uncertainties in this bias smaller than the minimum statistical floor for a galaxy catalog as deep as $r$$<$27.5. A few of these strategies bring the uncertainties close to the statistical floor for $r$$<$25.7 after only one year of survey.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2015

The nebular emission of star-forming galaxies in a hierarchical universe

Galaxy surveys targeting emission lines are characterising the evolution of star-forming galaxies, but there is still little theoretical progress in modelling their physical properties. We predict nebular emission from star-forming galaxies within a cosmological galaxy formation model. Emission lines are computed by combining the semi-analytical model \sag\ with the photoionisation code \mapp. We characterise the interstellar medium (ISM) of galaxies by relating the ionisation parameter of gas in galaxies to their cold gas metallicity, obtaining a reasonable agreement with the observed \ha, \oii, \oiii\ luminosity functions, and the the BPT diagram for local star-forming galaxies. The average ionisation parameter is found to increase towards low star-formation rates and high redshifts, consistent with recent observational results. The predicted link between different emission lines and their associated star-formation rates is studied by presenting scaling relations to relate them. Our model predicts that emission line galaxies have modest clustering bias, and thus reside in dark matter haloes of masses below $M_{\rm halo} \lesssim 10^{12} {[\rm h^{-1} M_{\odot}]}$. Finally, we exploit our modelling technique to predict galaxy number counts up to $z\sim 10$ by targeting far-infrared (FIR) emission lines detectable with submillimetre facilities

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2014

The environments of Ly$α$ blobs I: Wide-field Ly$α$ imaging of TN J1338-1942, a powerful radio galaxy at $z\simeq 4.1$ associated with a giant Ly$α$ nebula

We exploit wide-field Ly$alpha$ imaging with Subaru to probe the environment around TN J1338-1942, a powerful radio galaxy with a >100 kpc Ly$α$ halo at z=4.11. We used a sample of Ly$α$ emitters (LAEs) down to $\log(L_{\rm Lyα} [erg\, s^{-1}])\sim 42.8$ to measure the galaxy density around TNJ1338, compared to a control sample from a blank field taken with the same instrument. We found that TNJ1338 resides in a region with a peak overdensity of $δ_{\rm LAE}=2.8\pm 0.5$ on scales of $8\, h^{-1}\rm Mpc$ (on the sky) and $112\, h^{-1}\rm Mpc$ (line of sight) in comoving coordinates. Adjacent to this overdensity, we found a strong underdensity where virtually no LAEs are detected. We used a semi-analytical model of LAEs derived from the Millennium Simulation to compare our results with theoretical predictions. While the theoretical density distribution is consistent with the blank field, overdense regions such as that around TNJ1338 are very rare, with a number density of $6.4\times 10^{-8}\rm Mpc^{-3}$ (comoving), corresponding to the densest < 0.4 percentile at $z\simeq 4.1$. We also found that the Ly$α$ luminosity function in the TNJ1338 field differs from that in the blank field: the number of bright LAEs ($\log(L_{\rm Lyα}[erg\,s^{-1}]) \gtrsim 43.3$) is enhanced, while the number of fainter LAEs is relatively suppressed. These results suggest that some powerful radio galaxies associated with Ly$α$ nebulae reside in extreme overdensities on $\sim 3$--$6\, \rm Mpc$ scales, where star-formation and AGN activity may be enhanced via frequent galaxy mergers or high rates of gas accretion from the surroundings.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2013

Searching for Neutral Hydrogen Halos around z ~ 2.1 and z ~ 3.1 Ly-alpha Emitting Galaxies

We search for evidence of diffuse Ly-alpha emission from extended neutral hydrogen surrounding Ly-alpha emitting galaxies (LAEs) using deep narrow-band images of the Extended Chandra Deep Field South. By stacking the profiles of 187 LAEs at z = 2.06, 241 LAEs at z = 3.10, and 179 LAEs at z = 3.12, and carefully performing low-surface brightness photometry, we obtain mean surface brightness maps that reach 9.9, 8.7, and 6.2 * 10^{-19} ergs cm^{-2} s^{-1} arcsec^{-2} in the emission line. We undertake a thorough investigation of systematic uncertainties in our surface brightness measurements, and find that our limits are 5--10 times larger than would be expected from Poisson background fluctuations; these uncertainties are often underestimated in the literature. At z ~ 3.1, we find evidence for extended halos with small scale lengths of 5--8 kpc in some, but not all of our sub-samples. We demonstrate that sub-samples of LAEs with low equivalent widths and brighter continuum magnitudes are more likely to possess such halos. At z ~ 2.1, we find no evidence of extended Ly-alpha emission down to our detection limits. Through Monte-Carlo simulations, we also show that we would have detected large diffuse LAE halos if they were present in our data sets. We compare these findings to other measurements in the literature, and discuss possible instrumental and astrophysical reasons for the discrepancies.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2012

Effects of cosmological model assumptions on galaxy redshift survey measurements

The clustering of galaxies observed in future redshift surveys will provide a wealth of cosmological information. Matching the signal at different redshifts constrains the dark energy driving the acceleration of the expansion of the Universe. In tandem with these geometrical constraints, redshift-space distortions (RSD) depend on the build up of large-scale structure. As pointed out by many authors measurements of these effects are intrinsically coupled. We investigate this link, and argue that it strongly depends on the cosmological assumptions adopted when analysing data. Using representative assumptions for the parameters of the Euclid survey in order to provide a baseline future experiment, we show how the derived constraints change due to different model assumptions. We argue that even the assumption of a Friedman-Robertson-Walker (FRW) space-time is sufficient to reduce the importance of the coupling to a significant degree. Taking this idea further, we consider how the data would actually be analysed and argue that we should not expect to be able to simultaneously constrain multiple deviations from the standard $Λ$CDM model. We therefore consider different possible ways in which the Universe could deviate from the $Λ$CDM model, and show how the coupling between geometrical constraints and structure growth affects the measurement of such deviations.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2011

Can galactic outflows explain the properties of Ly-alpha emitters?

We study the properties of Ly-alpha emitters in a cosmological framework by computing the escape of Ly-alpha photons through galactic outflows. We combine the GALFORM semi-analytical model of galaxy formation with a Monte Carlo Ly-alpha radiative transfer code. The properties of Ly-alpha emitters at 0<z<7 are predicted using two outflow geometries: a Shell of neutral gas and a Wind ejecting material, both expanding at constant velocity. We characterise the differences in the Ly-alpha line profiles predicted by the two outflow geometries in terms of their width, asymmetry and shift from the line centre for a set of outflows with different hydrogen column densities, expansion velocities and metallicities. In general, the Ly-alpha line profile of the Shell geometry is broader and more asymmetric, and the Ly-alpha escape fraction is lower than with the Wind geometry for the same set of parameters. In order to implement the outflow geometries in the semi-analytical model GALFORM, a number of free parameters in the outflow model are set by matching the luminosity function of Ly-alpha emitters over the whole observed redshift range. The models are consistent with the observationally inferred Ly-alpha escape fractions, equivalent width distributions and with the shape of the Ly-alpha line from composite spectra. Interestingly, our predicted UV luminosity function of Ly-alpha emitters and the fraction of Ly-alpha emitters in Lyman-break galaxy samples at high redshift are in partial agreement with observations. Attenuation of the Ly-alpha line by the presence of a neutral intergalactic medium at high redshift could be responsible for this disagreement. We predict that Ly-alpha emitters constitute a subset of the galaxy population with lower metallicities, lower instantaneous star formation rates and larger sizes than the overall population at the same UV luminosity.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2010

Designing a space-based galaxy redshift survey to probe dark energy

A space-based galaxy redshift survey would have enormous power in constraining dark energy and testing general relativity, provided that its parameters are suitably optimized. We study viable space-based galaxy redshift surveys, exploring the dependence of the Dark Energy Task Force (DETF) figure-of-merit (FoM) on redshift accuracy, redshift range, survey area, target selection, and forecast method. Fitting formulae are provided for convenience. We also consider the dependence on the information used: the full galaxy power spectrum P(k, P(k) marginalized over its shape, or just the Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO). We find that the inclusion of growth rate information (extracted using redshift space distortion and galaxy clustering amplitude measurements) leads to a factor of ~ 3 improvement in the FoM, assuming general relativity is not modified. This inclusion partially compensates for the loss of information when only the BAO are used to give geometrical constraints, rather than using the full P(k) as a standard ruler. We find that a space-based galaxy redshift survey covering ~20,000 deg^2 over 0.5< z < 2 with σ_z/(1+z)<= 0.001 exploits a redshift range that is only easily accessible from space, extends to sufficiently low redshifts to allow both a vast 3-D map of the universe using a single tracer population, and overlaps with ground-based surveys to enable robust modeling of systematic effects. We argue that these parameters are close to their optimal values given current instrumental and practical constraints.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2007

Ly Alpha-Emitting Galaxies at z=3.1: L* Progenitors Experiencing Rapid Star Formation

We studied the clustering properties and multiwavelength spectral energy distributions of a complete sample of 162 Ly Alpha-Emitting (LAE) galaxies at z=3.1 discovered in deep narrow-band MUSYC imaging of the Extended Chandra Deep Field South. LAEs were selected to have observed frame equivalent widths >80A and emission line fluxes >1.5E-17 erg/cm^2/s. Only 1% of our LAE sample appears to host AGN. The LAEs exhibit a moderate spatial correlation length of r_0=3.6+0.8-1.0 Mpc, corresponding to a bias factor b=1.7+0.3-0.4, which implies median dark matter halo masses of log10(M_med) = 10.9+0.5-0.9 M_sun. Comparing the number density of LAEs, (1.5+-0.3)E-3/Mpc^3, with the number density of these halos finds a mean halo occupation ~1-10%. The evolution of galaxy bias with redshift implies that most z=3.1 LAEs evolve into present-day galaxies with L<2.5L*, whereas other z>3 galaxy populations typically evolve into more massive galaxies. Halo merger trees show that z=0 descendants occupy halos with a wide range of masses, with a median descendant mass close to that of L*. Only 30% of LAEs have sufficient stellar mass (>~3E9 M_sun) to yield detections in deep Spitzer-IRAC imaging. A two-population SED fit to the stacked UBVRIzJK+[3.6,4.5,5.6,8.0]micron fluxes of the IRAC-undetected objects finds that the typical LAE has low stellar mass (1.0+0.6-0.4 E9 M_sun), moderate star formation rate (2+-1 M_sun/yr), a young component age of 20+30-10 Myr, and little dust (A_V<0.2). The best fit model has 20% of the mass in the young stellar component, but models without evolved stars are also allowed.

astro-ph↗
arXiv2007

Narrow-band surveys for very high redshift Lyman-alpha emitters

Context: Many current and future surveys aim to detect the highest redshift (z >~ 7) sources through their Lyman-alpha (Ly-alpha) emission, using the narrow-band imaging method. However, to date the surveys have only yielded non-detections and upper limits as no survey has reached the necessary combination of depth and area to detect these very young star forming galaxies. Aims: We aim to calculate model luminosity functions and mock surveys of Ly-alpha emitters at z >~ 7 based on a variety of approaches. Methods: We calculate model luminosity functions at different redshifts based on three different approaches: a semi-analytical model based on CDM, a simple phenomenological model, and an extrapolation of observed Schechter functions at lower redshifts. The results of the first two models are compared with observations made at redshifts z ~ 5.7 and z ~ 6.5, and they are then extrapolated to higher redshift. Results: We present model luminosity functions for redshifts between z = 7 - 12.5 and give specific number predictions for future planned or possible narrow-band surveys for Ly-alpha emitters. We also investigate what constraints future observations will be able to place on the Ly-alpha luminosity function at very high redshift. Conclusion: It should be possible to observe z = 7 - 10 Ly-alpha emitters with present or near-future instruments if enough observing time is allocated. In particular, large area surveys such as ELVIS (Emission Line galaxies with VISTA Survey) will be useful in collecting a large sample. However, to get a large enough sample to constrain well the z >= 10 Ly-alpha luminosity function, instruments further in the future, such as an ELT, will be necessary.

astro-ph↗