arXiv subjects

Amalio F. Pacheco

Publications and source records attributed to Amalio F. Pacheco.

16 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2011

Aperiodicity in one-way Markov cycles and repeat times of large earthquakes in faults

A common use of Markov Chains is the simulation of the seismic cycle in a fault, i.e. as a renewal model for the repetition of its characteristic earthquakes. This representation is consistent with Reid's elastic rebound theory. Here it is proved that in {\it any} one-way Markov cycle, the aperiodicity of the corresponding distribution of cycle lengths is always lower than one. This fact concurs with observations of large earthquakes in faults all over the world.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2009

Turbulent-Like Behavior of Seismic Time Series

We report on a novel stochastic analysis of seismic time series for the Earth's vertical velocity, by using methods originally developed for complex hierarchical systems, and in particular for turbulent flows. Analysis of the fluctuations of the detrended increments of the series reveals a pronounced change of the shapes of the probability density functions (PDF) of the series' increments. Before and close to an earthquake the shape of the PDF and the long-range correlation in the increments both manifest significant changes. For a moderate or large-size earthquake the typical time at which the PDF undergoes the transition from a Gaussian to a non-Gaussian is about 5-10 hours. Thus, the transition represents a new precursor for detecting such earthquakes.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2008

Predictability of the large relaxations in a cellular automaton model

A simple one-dimensional cellular automaton model with threshold dynamics is introduced. The cumulative distribution of the size of the relaxations is analytically computed and behaves as a power law with an exponent equal to -1. This coincides with the phenomenological Gutenberg-Richter behavior observed in Seismology for the cumulative statistics of earthquakes at the regional or global scale. The key point of the model is the zero-load state of the system after the occurrence of any relaxation, no matter what its size. This leads to an equipartition of probability between all possible load configurations in the system during the successive loading cycles. Each cycle ends with the occurrence of the greatest -or characteristic- relaxation in the system. The duration of the cycles in the model is statistically distributed with a coefficient of variation ranging from 0.5 to 1. The predictability of the characteristic relaxations is evaluated by means of error diagrams. This model illustrates the value of taking into account the refractory periods to obtain a considerable gain in the quality of the predictions.

nlin.CG↗

arXiv2007

The occupation of a box as a toy model for the seismic cycle of a fault

We illustrate how a simple statistical model can describe the quasiperiodic occurrence of large earthquakes. The model idealizes the loading of elastic energy in a seismic fault by the stochastic filling of a box. The emptying of the box after it is full is analogous to the generation of a large earthquake in which the fault relaxes after having been loaded to its failure threshold. The duration of the filling process is analogous to the seismic cycle, the time interval between two successive large earthquakes in a particular fault. The simplicity of the model enables us to derive the statistical distribution of its seismic cycle. We use this distribution to fit the series of earthquakes with magnitude around 6 that occurred at the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas fault in California. Using this fit, we estimate the probability of the next large earthquake at Parkfield and devise a simple forecasting strategy.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2006

Venus Atmosphere Profile from a Maximum Entropy Principle

The variational method with constraints recently developed by Verkley and Gerkema to describe maximum-entropy atmospheric profiles is generalized to ideal gases but with temperature-dependent specific heats. In so doing, an extended and non standard potential temperature is introduced that is well suited for tackling the problem under consideration. This new formalism is successfully applied to the atmosphere of Venus. Three well defined regions emerge in this atmosphere up to a height of $100 km$ from the surface: the lowest one up to about $35 km$ is adiabatic, a transition layer located at the height of the cloud deck and finally a third region which is practically isothermal.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2006

A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models. The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2005

Updating seismic hazard at Parkfield

The occurrence of the September 28, 2004 Mw=6.0 mainshock at Parkfield, California, has significantly increased the mean and aperiodicity of the series of time intervals between mainshocks in this segment of the San Andreas fault. We use five different statistical distributions as renewal models to fit this new series and to estimate the time-dependent probability of the next Parkfield mainshock. Three of these distributions (lognormal, gamma and Weibull) are frequently used in reliability and time-to-failure problems. The other two come from physically-based models of earthquake recurrence (the Brownian Passage Time Model and the Minimalist Model). The differences resulting from these five renewal models are emphasized.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2004

Synchronization of Kuramoto Oscillators in Scale-Free Networks

In this work, we study the synchronization of coupled phase oscillators on the underlying topology of scale-free networks. In particular, we assume that each network's component is an oscillator and that each interacts with the others following the Kuramoto model. We then study the onset of global phase synchronization and fully characterize the system's dynamics. We also found that the resynchronization time of a perturbed node decays as a power law of its connectivity, providing a simple analytical explanation to this interesting behavior.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2004

Fitness for Synchronization of Network Motifs

We study the phase synchronization of Kuramoto's oscillators in small parts of networks known as motifs. We first report on the system dynamics for the case of a scale-free network and show the existence of a non-trivial critical point. We compute the probability that network motifs synchronize, and find that the fitness for synchronization correlates well with motif's interconnectedness and structural complexity. Possible implications for present debates about network evolution in biological and other systems are discussed.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2004

Using synchronization to improve earthquake forecasting in a cellular automaton model

A new forecasting strategy for stochastic systems is introduced. It is inspired by the concept of anticipated synchronization between pairs of chaotic oscillators, recently developed in the area of Dynamical Systems, and by the earthquake forecasting algorithms in which different pattern recognition functions are used for identifying seismic premonitory phenomena. In the new strategy, copies (clones) of the original system (the master) are defined, and they are driven using rules that tend to synchronize them with the master dynamics. The observation of definite patterns in the state of the clones is the signal for connecting an alarm in the original system that efficiently marks the impending occurrence of a catastrophic event. The power of this method is quantitatively illustrated by forecasting the occurrence of characteristic earthquakes in the so-called Minimalist Model.

cond-mat.dis-nn↗

arXiv2003

Registering Seconds with a Conic Clock

The feasibility of registering seconds using the frictionless motion of a point-like particle that slides under gravity on an inverted conical surface is studied. Depending on the integer part of the relation between the angular and radial frequencies of the particle trajectory, only an angular interval for the cone is available for this purpose. For each one of these possible angles, there exists a unique trajectory that has the capability of registering seconds. The method to obtain the geometrical properties of these trajectories and the necessary initial conditions to reach them are then established.

nlin.SI↗

arXiv2003

Epidemic Incidence in Correlated Complex Networks

We introduce a numerical method to solve epidemic models on the underlying topology of complex networks. The approach exploits the mean-field like rate equations describing the system and allows to work with very large system sizes, where Monte Carlo simulations are useless due to memory needs. We then study the SIR epidemiological model on assortative networks, providing numerical evidence of the absence of epidemic thresholds. Besides, the time profiles of the populations are analyzed. Finally, we stress that the present method would allow to solve arbitrary epidemic-like models provided that they can be described by mean-field rate equations.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2003

Forecasting characteristic earthquakes in a minimalist model

Using error diagrams, we quantify the forecasting of characteristic-earthquake occurrence in a recently introduced minimalist model. Initially we connect the earthquake alarm at a fixed time after the ocurrence of a characteristic event. The evaluation of this strategy leads to a one-dimensional numerical exploration of the loss function. This first strategy is then refined by considering a classification of the seismic cycles of the model according to the presence, or not, of some factors related to the seismicity observed in the cycle. These factors, statistically speaking, enlarge or shorten the length of the cycles. The independent evaluation of the impact of these factors in the forecast process leads to two-dimensional numerical explorations. Finally, and as a third gradual step in the process of refinement, we combine these factors leading to a three-dimensional exploration. The final improvement in the loss function is about 8.5%.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2003

Error Diagrams and Temporal Correlations in a Fracture Model with Characteristic and Power-Law Distributed Avalanches

Forecasting failure events is one of the most important problems in fracture mechanics and related sciences. In this paper, we use the Molchan scheme to investigate the error diagrams in a fracture model which has the notable advantage of displaying two completely different regimes according to the heterogeneity of the system. In one regime, a characteristic event is observed while for the second regime a power-law spectrum of avalanches is obtained reminiscent of self-organized criticality. We find that both regimes are different when predicting large avalanches and that, in the second regime, there are non-trivial temporal correlations associated to clustering of large events. Finally, we extend the discussion to seismology, where both kinds of avalanche size distributions can be seen.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2002

Sliding on the inside of a Conical Surface

We analyze the frictionless motion of a point-like particle that slides under gravity on an inverted conical surface. This motion is studied for arbitrary initial conditions and a general relation, valid within 13%, between the periods of radial and angular oscillations, that holds for both small and high energy trajectories, is obtained. This relation allows us to identify the closed orbits of the system. The virtues of this model to illustrate pedagogically, how in a physical system, the energy is transferred between different modes, are also emphasized. Two easy identification criteria for this type of motion with potential interest in industrial design are obtained.

nlin.CD↗

arXiv2001

A Minimalist Model of Characteristic Earthquakes

In a spirit akin to the sandpile model of self-organized criticality, we present a simple statistical model of the cellular-automaton type which produces an avalanche spectrum similar to the characteristic-earthquake behavior of some seismic faults. This model, that has no parameter, is amenable to an algebraic description as a Markov Chain. This possibility illuminates some important results, obtained by Monte Carlo simulations, such as the earthquake size-frequency relation and the recurrence time of the characteristic earthquake.

cond-mat.mtrl-sci↗