arXiv subjects

Amanda A. Sickafoose

Publications and source records attributed to Amanda A. Sickafoose.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Changes in Pluto's Atmosphere Based on Stellar Occultation Data from 2017 to 2023

Pluto's tenuous atmosphere has $μ$bar-level pressure and is composed primarily of ${\text{N}}_2$, with a variable haze. Its eccentric orbit combined with high obliquity leads to significant changes in solar insolation throughout the Plutonian year. The atmosphere is supported by vapor-pressure equilibrium with the surface ices, thus surface changes are coupled with the atmospheric properties. Volatile-transport models have anticipated Pluto's atmospheric evolution: predictions range from collapse over the coming decades to an atmosphere that remains. Previous work claims that Pluto's atmospheric pressure monotonically increased from 1988 through 2016, that the atmosphere began freezing out in 2018-2019, and that there was a plateau as of 2020. Here, we report results from ten stellar occultations by Pluto between 2017 August and 2023 July. Four events were multi-chord, while six were from single sites. Our results indicate a pressure plateau between the New Horizons flyby in 2015 through roughly 2021 and suggest that the atmospheric pressure has started to drop. Between 2015-2021 and 2022, the clear-atmosphere pressure at 1275 km decreased $7\pm6\%$, and it dropped $16\pm2\%$ for pressure at 1215 km when including haze. From 2017-2023, the upper atmospheric structure is consistent, while there is a change in light-curve slope in the lower atmosphere. This change-of-slope is consistent with haze particles settling over yearly or shorter timescales. Spikes in one light curve are indicative of intermittent buoyancy waves. More data are needed to confirm a recent pressure change.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2025

Doomed Worlds II: Reassessing Suggestions of Orbital Decay for TrES-5 b

TrES-5b is one of only three ultra-hot Jupiters (UHJs) with suggestions of a possibly decreasing orbital period that have persisted through multiple independent analyses (G. Maciejewski et al. 2021; S. R. Hagey et al. 2022; E. S. Ivshina & J. N. Winn 2022; W. Wang et al. 2024; L. C. Yeh et al. 2024). While WASP-12 b's decreasing period is well-explained by tidally induced orbital decay (K. C. Patra et al. 2017), and stellar acceleration has been proposed for WASP-4 b (L. G. Bouma et al. 2020), the cause of the apparent trend for TrES-5 b has not been satisfactorily explained. This work extends the previous observations with 14 new ground-based transits from 2016-2024 and two newly-published midtimes for data from 2007 and 2009. Four TESS sectors (75, 77, 82, and 84) have also been included for the first time. With the new data, the case for a decreasing orbital period is much weaker than before. The revised rate of period change, dP/dt=-5.3 +/- 2.2 ms yr^-1, is less than half that was found in previous work and the preference for a quadratic over a linear model, as measured through Delta BIC_LQ, has been falling since 2020, with a current value of 11. Furthermore, these results are not robust to outliers; removing a single early transit midtime causes the effect to vanish (Delta BIC_LQ = -1). Additionally, no significant periodic signals in the transit timing data are identified. The current data are well explained by a linear ephemeris.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2025

Metrics for Optimizing Searches for Orbital Precession and Tidal Decay via Transit- and Occultation-Timing

Short-period exoplanets may exhibit orbital precession driven by several different processes, including tidal interactions with their host stars and secular interactions with additional planets. This motion manifests as periodic shifts in the timing between transits which may be detectable via high-precision and long-baseline transit- and occultation-timing measurements. Detecting precession and attributing it to a particular process may constrain the tidal responses of planets and point to the presence of otherwise undetected perturbers. However, over relatively short timescales, orbital decay driven by the same tidal interactions can induce transit-timing signals similar to the precession signal, and distinguishing between the two processes requires robust assessment of the model statistics. In this context, occultation observations can help distinguish the two signals, but determining the precision and scheduling of observations sufficient to meaningfully contribute can be complicated. In this study, we expand on earlier work focused on searches for tidal decay to map out simple metrics that facilitate detection of precession and how to distinguish it from tidal decay. We discuss properties for a short-period exoplanet system that can maximize the likelihood for detecting such signals and prospects for contributions from citizen-science observations.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2024

Doomed Worlds I: No new evidence for orbital decay in a long-term survey of 43 ultra-hot Jupiters

Ultra-hot Jupiters are likely doomed by tidal forces to undergo orbital decay and eventual disruption by their stars, but the timescale over which this process unfolds is unknown. We present results from a long-term project to monitor ultra-hot Jupiters transits. We recovered WASP-12 b's orbital decay rate of dP/dt = -29.8 +/- 1.6 ms yr-1, in agreement with prior work. Five other systems initially had promising non-linear transit ephemerides. However, a closer examination of two -- WASP-19 b and CoRoT-2 b, both with prior tentative detections -- revealed several independent errors with the literature timing data; after correction neither planet shows signs of orbital decay. Meanwhile, a potential decreasing period for TrES-1 b, dP/dt = -16 +/- 5 ms yr-1, corresponds to a tidal quality factor Q*' = 160 and likely does not result from orbital decay, if driven by dissipation within the host star. Nominal period increases in two systems, WASP-121 b and WASP-46 b, rest on a small handful of points. Only 1/43 planets (WASP-12 b) in our sample is experiencing detectable orbital decay. For nearly half (20/42) we can rule out dP/dt as high as observed for WASP-12 b. Thus while many ultra-hot Jupiters could still be experiencing rapid decay that we cannot yet detect, a sizeable sub-population of UHJs are decaying at least an order of magnitude more slowly than WASP-12 b. Our reanalysis of Kepler-1658 b with no new data finds that it remains a promising orbital decay candidate. Finally, we recommend that the scientific community take steps to avoid spurious detections through better management of the multi-decade-spanning datasets needed to search for and study planetary orbital decay.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

Material Around the Centaur (2060) Chiron from the 2018 November 28 UT Stellar Occultation

A stellar occultation of Gaia DR3 2646598228351156352 by the Centaur (2060) Chiron was observed from the South African Astronomical Observatory on 2018 November 28 UT. Here we present a positive detection of material surrounding Chiron from the 74-in telescope for this event. Additionally, a global atmosphere is ruled out at the tens of mircobar level for several possible atmospheric compositions. There are multiple 3-sigma drops in the 74-in light curve: three during immersion and two during emersion. Occulting material is located between 242-270 km from the center of the nucleus in the sky plane. Assuming the ring-plane orientation proposed for Chiron from the 2011 occultation, the flux drops are located at 352, 344, and 316 km (immersion), and 357, and 364 km (emersion) from the center, with normal optical depths of 0.26, 0.36, and 0.22 (immersion) and 0.26 and 0.18 (emersion), and equivalent widths between 0.7-1.3 km. This detection is similar to the previously proposed two-ring system and is located within the error bars of that ring-pole plane; however, the normal optical depths are less than half of the previous values, and three features are detected on immersion. These results suggest that the properties of the surrounding material have evolved between the 2011, 2018, and 2022 observations.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2022

The Nature of Low-Albedo Small Bodies from 3-$μ$m Spectroscopy: One Group that Formed Within the Ammonia Snow Line and One that Formed Beyond It

We present evidence, via a large survey of 191 new spectra along with previously-published spectra, of a divide in the 3-$μ$m spectral properties of the low-albedo asteroid population. One group ("Sharp-types" or ST, with band centers $<$ 3 $μ$m) has a spectral shape consistent with carbonaceous chondrite meteorites, while the other group ("not-Sharp-types" or NST, with bands centered $>$ 3 $μ$m) is not represented in the meteorite literature but is as abundant as the STs among large objects. Both groups are present in most low-albedo asteroid taxonomic classes, and except in limited cases taxonomic classifications based on 0.5-2.5-$μ$m data alone cannot predict whether an asteroid is ST or NST. Statistical tests show the STs and NSTs differ in average band depth, semi-major axis, and perihelion at confidence levels $\ge$98\%, while not showing significant differences in albedo. We also show that many NSTs have a 3-$μ$m absorption band shape like Comet 67P, and likely represent an important small-body composition throughout the solar system. A simple explanation for the origin of these groups is formation on opposite sides of the ammonia snow line, with the NST group accreting H2O and NH3 and the ST group only accreting H2O, with subsequent thermal and chemical evolution resulting in the minerals seen today. Such an explanation is consistent with recent dynamical modeling of planetesimal formation and delivery, and suggests that much more outer solar system material was delivered to the main asteroid belt than would be thought based on the number of D-class asteroids found today.

astro-ph.EP↗