arXiv subjects

Amichai Painsky

Publications and source records attributed to Amichai Painsky.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Confidence intervals for maximum unseen probabilities, with application to sequential sampling design

Discovery problems often require deciding whether additional sampling is needed to detect all categories whose prevalence exceeds a prespecified threshold. We study this question under a Bernoulli product (incidence) model, where categories are observed only through presence--absence across sampling units. Our inferential target is the \emph{maximum unseen probability}, the largest prevalence among categories not yet observed. We develop nonasymptotic, distribution-free upper confidence bounds for this quantity in two regimes: bounded alphabets (finite and known number of categories) and unbounded alphabets (countably infinite under a mild summability condition). We characterise the limits of data-independent worst-case bounds, showing that in the unbounded regime no nontrivial data-independent procedure can be uniformly valid. We then propose data-dependent bounds in both regimes and establish matching lower bounds demonstrating their near-optimality. We compare empirically the resulting procedures in both simulated and real datasets. Finally, we use these bounds to construct sequential stopping rules with finite-sample guarantees, and demonstrate robustness to contamination that introduces spurious low-prevalence categories.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Who is the Winning Algorithm? Rank Aggregation for Comparative Studies

Consider a collection of m competing machine learning algorithms. Given their performance on a benchmark of datasets, we would like to identify the best performing algorithm. Specifically, which algorithm is most likely to ``win'' (rank highest) on a future, unseen dataset. The standard maximum likelihood approach suggests counting the number of wins per each algorithm. In this work, we argue that there is much more information in the complete rankings. That is, the number of times that each algorithm finished second, third and so forth. Yet, it is not entirely clear how to effectively utilize this information for our purpose. In this work we introduce a novel conceptual framework for estimating the win probability for each of the m algorithms, given their complete rankings over a benchmark of datasets. Our proposed framework significantly improves upon currently known methods in synthetic and real-world examples.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Near Optimal Inference for the Best-Performing Algorithm

Consider a collection of competing machine learning algorithms. Given their performance on a benchmark of datasets, we would like to identify the best performing algorithm. Specifically, which algorithm is most likely to rank highest on a future, unseen dataset. A natural approach is to select the algorithm that demonstrates the best performance on the benchmark. However, in many cases the performance differences are marginal and additional candidates may also be considered. This problem is formulated as subset selection for multinomial distributions. Formally, given a sample from a countable alphabet, our goal is to identify a minimal subset of symbols that includes the most frequent symbol in the population with high confidence. In this work, we introduce a novel framework for the subset selection problem. We provide both asymptotic and finite-sample schemes that significantly improve upon currently known methods. In addition, we provide matching lower bounds, demonstrating the favorable performance of our proposed schemes.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Image detection using combinatorial auction

This paper studies the optimal solution of the classical problem of detecting the location of multiple image occurrences in a two-dimensional, noisy measurement. Assuming the image occurrences do not overlap, we formulate this task as a constrained maximum likelihood optimization problem. We show that the maximum likelihood estimator is equivalent to an instance of the winner determination problem from the field of combinatorial auction and that the solution can be obtained by searching over a binary tree. We then design a pruning mechanism that significantly accelerates the runtime of the search. We demonstrate on simulations and electron microscopy data sets that the proposed algorithm provides accurate detection in challenging regimes of high noise levels and densely packed image occurrences.

eess.IV↗

arXiv2024

Distribution Estimation under the Infinity Norm

We present novel bounds for estimating discrete probability distributions under the $\ell_\infty$ norm. These are nearly optimal in various precise senses, including a kind of instance-optimality. Our data-dependent convergence guarantees for the maximum likelihood estimator significantly improve upon the currently known results. A variety of techniques are utilized and innovated upon, including Chernoff-type inequalities and empirical Bernstein bounds. We illustrate our results in synthetic and real-world experiments. Finally, we apply our proposed framework to a basic selective inference problem, where we estimate the most frequent probabilities in a sample.

math.ST↗

arXiv2023

Detecting non-overlapping signals with dynamic programming

This paper studies the classical problem of detecting the locations of signal occurrences in a one-dimensional noisy measurement. Assuming the signal occurrences do not overlap, we formulate the detection task as a constrained likelihood optimization problem, and design a computationally efficient dynamic program that attains its optimal solution. Our proposed framework is scalable, simple to implement, and robust to model uncertainties. We show by extensive numerical experiments that our algorithm accurately estimates the locations in dense and noisy environments, and outperforms alternative methods.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2022

Confidence Intervals for Unobserved Events

Consider a finite sample from an unknown distribution over a countable alphabet. Unobserved events are alphabet symbols which do not appear in the sample. Estimating the probabilities of unobserved events is a basic problem in statistics and related fields, which was extensively studied in the context of point estimation. In this work we introduce a novel interval estimation scheme for unobserved events. Our proposed framework applies selective inference, as we construct confidence intervals (CIs) for the desired set of parameters. Interestingly, we show that obtained CIs are dimension-free, as they do not grow with the alphabet size. Further, we show that these CIs are (almost) tight, in the sense that they cannot be further improved without violating the prescribed coverage rate. We demonstrate the performance of our proposed scheme in synthetic and real-world experiments, showing a significant improvement over the alternatives. Finally, we apply our proposed scheme to large alphabet modeling. We introduce a novel simultaneous CI scheme for large alphabet distributions which outperforms currently known methods while maintaining the prescribed coverage rate.

math.ST↗

arXiv2022

K-sample Multiple Hypothesis Testing for Signal Detection

This paper studies the classical problem of estimating the locations of signal occurrences in a noisy measurement. Based on a multiple hypothesis testing scheme, we design a K-sample statistical test to control the false discovery rate (FDR). Specifically, we first convolve the noisy measurement with a smoothing kernel, and find all local maxima. Then, we evaluate the joint probability of K entries in the vicinity of each local maximum, derive the corresponding p-value, and apply the Benjamini-Hochberg procedure to account for multiplicity. We demonstrate through extensive experiments that our proposed method, with K=2, controls the prescribed FDR while increasing the power compared to a one-sample test.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2021

Feature Importance in Gradient Boosting Trees with Cross-Validation Feature Selection

Gradient Boosting Machines (GBM) are among the go-to algorithms on tabular data, which produce state of the art results in many prediction tasks. Despite its popularity, the GBM framework suffers from a fundamental flaw in its base learners. Specifically, most implementations utilize decision trees that are typically biased towards categorical variables with large cardinalities. The effect of this bias was extensively studied over the years, mostly in terms of predictive performance. In this work, we extend the scope and study the effect of biased base learners on GBM feature importance (FI) measures. We show that although these implementation demonstrate highly competitive predictive performance, they still, surprisingly, suffer from bias in FI. By utilizing cross-validated (CV) unbiased base learners, we fix this flaw at a relatively low computational cost. We demonstrate the suggested framework in a variety of synthetic and real-world setups, showing a significant improvement in all GBM FI measures while maintaining relatively the same level of prediction accuracy.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Neural Joint Entropy Estimation

Estimating the entropy of a discrete random variable is a fundamental problem in information theory and related fields. This problem has many applications in various domains, including machine learning, statistics and data compression. Over the years, a variety of estimation schemes have been suggested. However, despite significant progress, most methods still struggle when the sample is small, compared to the variable's alphabet size. In this work, we introduce a practical solution to this problem, which extends the work of McAllester and Statos (2020). The proposed scheme uses the generalization abilities of cross-entropy estimation in deep neural networks (DNNs) to introduce improved entropy estimation accuracy. Furthermore, we introduce a family of estimators for related information-theoretic measures, such as conditional entropy and mutual information. We show that these estimators are strongly consistent and demonstrate their performance in a variety of use-cases. First, we consider large alphabet entropy estimation. Then, we extend the scope to mutual information estimation. Next, we apply the proposed scheme to conditional mutual information estimation, as we focus on independence testing tasks. Finally, we study a transfer entropy estimation problem. The proposed estimators demonstrate improved performance compared to existing methods in all tested setups.

cs.IT↗

arXiv2020

Optimal and Maximin Procedures for Multiple Testing Problems

Multiple testing problems are a staple of modern statistical analysis. The fundamental objective of multiple testing procedures is to reject as many false null hypotheses as possible (that is, maximize some notion of power), subject to controlling an overall measure of false discovery, like family-wise error rate (FWER) or false discovery rate (FDR). In this paper we formulate multiple testing of simple hypotheses as an infinite-dimensional optimization problem, seeking the most powerful rejection policy which guarantees strong control of the selected measure. In that sense, our approach is a generalization of the optimal Neyman-Pearson test for a single hypothesis. We show that for exchangeable hypotheses, for both FWER and FDR and relevant notions of power, these problems can be formulated as infinite linear programs and can in principle be solved for any number of hypotheses. We also characterize maximin rules for complex alternatives, and demonstrate that such rules can be found in practice, leading to improved practical procedures compared to existing alternatives. We derive explicit optimal tests for FWER or FDR control for three independent normal means. We find that the power gain over natural competitors is substantial in all settings examined. Finally, we apply our optimal maximin rule to subgroup analyses in systematic reviews from the Cochrane library, leading to an increase in the number of findings while guaranteeing strong FWER control against the one sided alternative.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2020

Non-linear Canonical Correlation Analysis: A Compressed Representation Approach

Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) is a linear representation learning method that seeks maximally correlated variables in multi-view data. Non-linear CCA extends this notion to a broader family of transformations, which are more powerful in many real-world applications. Given the joint probability, the Alternating Conditional Expectation (ACE) algorithm provides an optimal solution to the non-linear CCA problem. However, it suffers from limited performance and an increasing computational burden when only a finite number of samples is available. In this work we introduce an information-theoretic compressed representation framework for the non-linear CCA problem (CRCCA), which extends the classical ACE approach. Our suggested framework seeks compact representations of the data that allow a maximal level of correlation. This way we control the trade-off between the flexibility and the complexity of the model. CRCCA provides theoretical bounds and optimality conditions, as we establish fundamental connections to rate-distortion theory, the information bottleneck and remote source coding. In addition, it allows a soft dimensionality reduction, as the compression level is determined by the mutual information between the original noisy data and the extracted signals. Finally, we introduce a simple implementation of the CRCCA framework, based on lattice quantization.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Bregman Divergence Bounds and Universality Properties of the Logarithmic Loss

A loss function measures the discrepancy between the true values and their estimated fits, for a given instance of data. In classification problems, a loss function is said to be proper if a minimizer of the expected loss is the true underlying probability. We show that for binary classification, the divergence associated with smooth, proper, and convex loss functions is upper bounded by the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, to within a normalization constant. This implies that by minimizing the logarithmic loss associated with the KL divergence, we minimize an upper bound to any choice of loss from this set. As such the logarithmic loss is universal in the sense of providing performance guarantees with respect to a broad class of accuracy measures. Importantly, this notion of universality is not problem-specific, enabling its use in diverse applications, including predictive modeling, data clustering and sample complexity analysis. Generalizations to arbitrary finite alphabets are also developed. The derived inequalities extend several well-known $f$-divergence results.

cs.IT↗

arXiv2018

Innovation Representation of Stochastic Processes with Application to Causal Inference

Typically, real-world stochastic processes are not easy to analyze. In this work we study the representation of any stochastic process as a memoryless innovation process triggering a dynamic system. We show that such a representation is always feasible for innovation processes taking values over a continuous set. However, the problem becomes more challenging when the alphabet size of the innovation is finite. In this case, we introduce both lossless and lossy frameworks, and provide closed-form solutions and practical algorithmic methods. In addition, we discuss the properties and uniqueness of our suggested approach. Finally, we show that the innovation representation problem has many applications. We focus our attention to Entropic Causal Inference, which has recently demonstrated promising performance, compared to alternative methods.

cs.IT↗

arXiv2018

PhD Dissertation: Generalized Independent Components Analysis Over Finite Alphabets

Independent component analysis (ICA) is a statistical method for transforming an observable multi-dimensional random vector into components that are as statistically independent as possible from each other. Usually the ICA framework assumes a model according to which the observations are generated (such as a linear transformation with additive noise). ICA over finite fields is a special case of ICA in which both the observations and the independent components are over a finite alphabet. In this thesis we consider a formulation of the finite-field case in which an observation vector is decomposed to its independent components (as much as possible) with no prior assumption on the way it was generated. This generalization is also known as Barlow's minimal redundancy representation and is considered an open problem. We propose several theorems and show that this hard problem can be accurately solved with a branch and bound search tree algorithm, or tightly approximated with a series of linear problems. Moreover, we show that there exists a simple transformation (namely, order permutation) which provides a greedy yet very effective approximation of the optimal solution. We further show that while not every random vector can be efficiently decomposed into independent components, the vast majority of vectors do decompose very well (that is, within a small constant cost), as the dimension increases. In addition, we show that we may practically achieve this favorable constant cost with a complexity that is asymptotically linear in the alphabet size. Our contribution provides the first efficient set of solutions to Barlow's problem with theoretical and computational guarantees. Finally, we demonstrate our suggested framework in multiple source coding applications.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2018

Lossless (and Lossy) Compression of Random Forests

Ensemble methods are among the state-of-the-art predictive modeling approaches. Applied to modern big data, these methods often require a large number of sub-learners, where the complexity of each learner typically grows with the size of the dataset. This phenomenon results in an increasing demand for storage space, which may be very costly. This problem mostly manifests in a subscriber based environment, where a user-specific ensemble needs to be stored on a personal device with strict storage limitations (such as a cellular device). In this work we introduce a novel method for lossless compression of tree-based ensemble methods, focusing on random forests. Our suggested method is based on probabilistic modeling of the ensemble's trees, followed by model clustering via Bregman divergence. This allows us to find a minimal set of models that provides an accurate description of the trees, and at the same time is small enough to store and maintain. Our compression scheme demonstrates high compression rates on a variety of modern datasets. Importantly, our scheme enables predictions from the compressed format and a perfect reconstruction of the original ensemble. In addition, we introduce a theoretically sound lossy compression scheme, which allows us to control the trade-off between the distortion and the coding rate.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

MSc Dissertation: Exclusive Row Biclustering for Gene Expression Using a Combinatorial Auction Approach

The availability of large microarray data has led to a growing interest in biclustering methods in the past decade. Several algorithms have been proposed to identify subsets of genes and conditions according to different similarity measures and under varying constraints. In this paper we focus on the exclusive row biclustering problem for gene expression data sets, in which each row can only be a member of a single bicluster while columns can participate in multiple ones. This type of biclustering may be adequate, for example, for clustering groups of cancer patients where each patient (row) is expected to be carrying only a single type of cancer, while each cancer type is associated with multiple (and possibly overlapping) genes (columns). We present a novel method to identify these exclusive row biclusters through a combination of existing biclustering algorithms and combinatorial auction techniques. We devise an approach for tuning the threshold for our algorithm based on comparison to a null model in the spirit of the Gap statistic approach. We demonstrate our approach on both synthetic and real-world gene expression data and show its power in identifying large span non-overlapping rows sub matrices, while considering their unique nature. The Gap statistic approach succeeds in identifying appropriate thresholds in all our examples.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2018

Linear Independent Component Analysis over Finite Fields: Algorithms and Bounds

Independent Component Analysis (ICA) is a statistical tool that decomposes an observed random vector into components that are as statistically independent as possible. ICA over finite fields is a special case of ICA, in which both the observations and the decomposed components take values over a finite alphabet. This problem is also known as minimal redundancy representation or factorial coding. In this work we focus on linear methods for ICA over finite fields. We introduce a basic lower bound which provides a fundamental limit to the ability of any linear solution to solve this problem. Based on this bound, we present a greedy algorithm that outperforms all currently known methods. Importantly, we show that the overhead of our suggested algorithm (compared with the lower bound) typically decreases, as the scale of the problem grows. In addition, we provide a sub-optimal variant of our suggested method that significantly reduces the computational complexity at a relatively small cost in performance. Finally, we discuss the universal abilities of linear transformations in decomposing random vectors, compared with existing non-linear solutions.

stat.ML↗