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Amir Asiaee

Publications and source records attributed to Amir Asiaee.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

Workload-Preserving Differentially Private Synthetic Data for Causal Inference via Maximum-Entropy Calibration

Workload-based differentially private (DP) synthetic data methods privately measure aggregate queries and post-process the noisy answers into synthetic records. Generic workloads can achieve strong distributional fidelity, but causal estimands such as the average treatment effect (ATE) depend on treatment-arm balance and outcome moments that generic marginals need not preserve. We propose causal workloads: DP query sets designed around the orthogonal moments used by doubly robust causal estimators. The released workload can be used directly by stable moment-map estimators or reconstructed by maximum-entropy calibration into reusable synthetic data; our theory decomposes ATE error into sampling, privacy, workload-approximation, Monte Carlo, and calibration terms. We also introduce Causal-AIM, an adaptive workload selector, and a noise-aware multiple-imputation (NA+MI) procedure for confidence intervals from DP synthetic data. Because the workload is released once, the same DP synthetic table can support ATE, ATT, and subgroup analyses without additional privacy spending. Empirically, causal workloads are most useful at strict privacy budgets and for calibrated uncertainty, while generic workloads often retain an advantage for point RMSE as privacy relaxes. The broader lesson is a tradeoff: distributional fidelity can help point accuracy, but valid causal inference requires preserving causal moments and propagating DP noise rather than treating synthetic rows as real.

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arXiv2026

Certified Interventional Fidelity: Anytime-Valid, Adaptive Evaluation of Causal Claims in Mechanistic Interpretability

Mechanistic interpretability often evaluates explanations by intervening on a model: swapping hidden states, patching activations, ablating components, or comparing a compressed model to the original one. These experiments are usually summarized by a point estimate, even though the evaluation may be monitored while it runs or adapted toward suspected failures. This makes it hard to tell whether a reported fidelity or patching effect is a stable causal claim or a consequence of finite sampling and evaluation choices. We introduce Certified Interventional Fidelity (CIF), a statistical layer for interventional interpretability evaluations. CIF first writes the quantity being reported as a causal estimand: an expectation of a bounded score over a stated input distribution and a stated intervention distribution. It then provides confidence intervals and anytime-valid confidence sequences for this estimand, including under adaptive intervention sampling via bounded mixture importance weighting. We instantiate CIF with Hoeffding-style sequences and variance-adaptive betting sequences, the latter reducing certification cost by 10-30x in our experiments. On MNIST abstractions and GPT-2 Small IOI circuits, CIF certifies high-fidelity claims, shows when apparent method differences are not statistically supported, and makes sensitivity to the intervention distribution explicit.

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arXiv2026

B-CALM: Bias-Limited Bayesian Borrowing for RCT-Anchored Treatment Effects under Covariate Mismatch

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) identify treatment effects in the randomized trial population but are often too small for reliable heterogeneity estimation; observational studies (OS) are larger but confounded and measured on only partially overlapping covariates. We develop Bayesian Calibrated ALignment under covariate Mismatch (B-CALM), a Bayesian borrowing method for RCT-defined conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation. B-CALM maps source-specific covariates into a shared latent state, jointly models trial and observational outcome surfaces, and uses baseline-bias and comparative-bias functions to represent how the OS departs from the trial estimand. The comparative-bias prior becomes an explicit sensitivity knob: we prove a finite-feature bias-limited information bound showing that observational contrast information about the trial treatment-effect function is capped by the prior precision of this bias function, and derive an effective-sample-size formula showing that the RCT-equivalent information contributed by the OS saturates as OS sample size grows. The theory also combines a PAC-Bayes trial-risk bound with an integral-probability-metric (IPM) alignment and calibration decomposition that separates RCT empirical risk, latent alignment, and residual calibration of the debiased OS surface. In synthetic, semi-synthetic, and pediatric-obesity external-control studies, B-CALM maintains near-nominal average coverage and low negative transfer while pooled and causal-forest baselines can become overconfident under comparative bias.

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arXiv2026

Omitted-Variable Sensitivity Analysis for Generalizing Randomized Trials

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) yield internally valid causal effect estimates, but generalizing these results to target populations with different characteristics requires an untestable selection ignorability assumption: conditional on observed covariates, trial participation must be independent of potential outcomes. This assumption fails when unobserved effect modifiers are distributed differently between trial and target populations. We develop a sensitivity analysis framework for trial generalization grounded in omitted variable bias (OVB). Our key theoretical contribution is an exact decomposition showing that external-validity bias equals moderation strength $\times$ moderator imbalance: (i) how strongly an unobserved variable shifts the treatment effect, times (ii) how differently that variable is distributed across populations after covariate adjustment. We introduce scale-free sensitivity parameters based on partial $R^2$ values, enabling closed-form bounds and benchmarking against observed covariates -- practitioners can assess whether conclusions would change if an unobserved moderator were "as strong as" a particular observed variable. Simulations demonstrate that our bounds achieve nominal coverage and remain conservative under model misspecification, while comparisons with alternative sensitivity frameworks highlight the interpretive advantages of the OVB decomposition.

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arXiv2026

Improving RCT-Based Treatment Effect Estimation Under Covariate Mismatch via Calibrated Alignment

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the gold standard for estimating treatment effects, yet they are often underpowered for detecting effect heterogeneity. Large observational studies (OS) can supplement RCTs for conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation, but a key barrier is covariate mismatch: the two sources measure different, only partially overlapping, covariates. We propose CALM (Calibrated ALignment under covariate Mismatch), which learns embeddings that map each source's features into a common representation space. OS outcome models are transferred to the RCT embedding space and calibrated using trial data, preserving causal identification from randomization. Finite-sample risk bounds decompose into alignment error, outcome-model complexity, and calibration complexity terms, making explicit when the learned embedding is accurate enough to reduce variance. We instantiate CALM in two forms: a closed-form linear version, CALM-Lin, and a neural representation-learning version, CALM-NN. Across 51 simulation settings, calibration-based linear methods are effectively tied in linear-CATE regimes, while CALM-NN wins all 22 nonlinear-CATE settings by wide margins. Moreover, on two real-data studies CALM-NN delivers the largest gains over the trial-only baseline.

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arXiv2026

Improving RCT-Based CATE Estimation Under Covariate Mismatch via Double Calibration

We develop estimators that improve precision of heterogeneous treatment effect estimates that allow borrowing information from observational studies when the available covariates in each data source do not perfectly match. Standard data-borrowing methods often assume perfectly matched covariates. We propose MR-OSCAR, an RCT-calibrated, two-stage estimation approach that first predicts the trial-missing variables using the observational data via imputation and then calibrates observational outcome predictions to the randomized trial, preserving the causal contrast, unlike the results for generalization, where imputation does not improve performance. Our theory gives finite-sample guarantees with a transparent error decomposition including an imputation error that shrinks as the observational mapping becomes more predictable. Simulations show that imputation almost always outperforms naively using only the shared covariates and clarifies when borrowing helps (strong predictability of the missing block, moderate trial size) and when it does not (poor predictability or dominant trial-only moderators). We motivate the approach with the Greenlight Plus trial on early childhood obesity and outline a forthcoming EHR analysis at Vanderbilt, highlighting the use of our method in common scenarios where data do not perfectly align.

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arXiv2026

Noise-Calibrated Inference from Differentially Private Sufficient Statistics in Exponential Families

Many differentially private (DP) data release systems either output DP synthetic data and leave analysts to perform inference as usual, which can lead to severe miscalibration, or output a DP point estimate without a principled way to do uncertainty quantification. This paper develops a clean and tractable middle ground for exponential families: release only DP sufficient statistics, then perform noise-calibrated likelihood-based inference and optional parametric synthetic data generation as post-processing. Our contributions are: (1) a general recipe for approximate-DP release of clipped sufficient statistics under the Gaussian mechanism; (2) asymptotic normality, explicit variance inflation, and valid Wald-style confidence intervals for the plug-in DP MLE; (3) a noise-aware likelihood correction that is first-order equivalent to the plug-in but supports bootstrap-based intervals; and (4) a matching minimax lower bound showing the privacy distortion rate is unavoidable. The resulting theory yields concrete design rules and a practical pipeline for releasing DP synthetic data with principled uncertainty quantification, validated on three exponential families and real census data.

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arXiv2026

CausalWrap: Model-Agnostic Causal Constraint Wrappers for Tabular Synthetic Data

Tabular synthetic data generators are typically trained to match observational distributions, which can yield high conventional utility (e.g., column correlations, predictive accuracy) yet poor preservation of structural relations relevant to causal analysis and out-of-distribution (OOD) reasoning. When the downstream use of synthetic data involves causal reasoning -- estimating treatment effects, evaluating policies, or testing mediation pathways -- merely matching the observational distribution is insufficient: structural fidelity and treatment-mechanism preservation become essential. We propose CausalWrap (CW), a model-agnostic wrapper that injects partial causal knowledge (PCK) -- trusted edges, forbidden edges, and qualitative/monotonic constraints -- into any pretrained base generator (GAN, VAE, or diffusion model), without requiring access to its internals. CW learns a lightweight, differentiable post-hoc correction map applied to samples from the base generator, optimized with causal penalty terms under an augmented-Lagrangian schedule. We provide theoretical results connecting penalty-based optimization to constraint satisfaction and relating approximate factorization to joint distributional control. We validate CW on simulated structural causal models (SCMs) with known ground-truth interventions, semi-synthetic causal benchmarks (IHDP and an ACIC-style suite), and a real-world ICU cohort (MIMIC-IV) with expert-elicited partial graphs. CW improves causal fidelity across diverse base generators -- e.g., reducing average treatment effect (ATE) error by up to 63% on ACIC and lifting ATE agreement from 0.00 to 0.38 on the intensive care unit (ICU) cohort -- while largely retaining conventional utility.

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arXiv2026

Partial Causal Structure Learning for Valid Selective Conformal Inference under Interventions

Selective conformal prediction can yield substantially tighter uncertainty sets when we can identify calibration examples that are exchangeable with the test example. In interventional settings, such as perturbation experiments in genomics, exchangeability often holds only within subsets of interventions that leave a target variable "unaffected" (e.g., non-descendants of an intervened node in a causal graph). We study the practical regime where this invariance structure is unknown and must be estimated from data. Our main result quantifies how coverage degrades when the estimated safe calibration set accidentally includes interventions that affect the target, and gives a conservative correction when an upper bound on this error is available. Rather than learning a full causal graph, we learn only the intervention-target relationships needed to choose calibration interventions. We give algorithms for this partial learning task and evaluate them on synthetic structural equation models and Replogle K562 CRISPR-interference data, where the experiments illustrate synthetic gains from selective calibration and finite-sample tradeoffs on real perturbation screens.

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arXiv2026

Causal Mechanism Reduction: Mechanism Replacement for Neural Network Pruning and Abstraction

Which internal mechanisms of a neural network can be replaced while preserving the computation it performs? Structured pruning asks for smaller deployable networks; causal abstraction asks for high-level models that commute with interventions. We introduce causal mechanism reduction (CMR), a framework that treats a trained network as a deterministic structural causal model and replaces selected internal variables by constants or affine functions of retained variables. These replacements compile exactly into smaller dense networks by bias and weight folding, and induce reduced causal models testable with interchange interventions. We derive a unified second-order replacement-risk objective whose special cases recover mean replacement, variance-based pruning (VBP), logit-distortion scoring, and affine neuron merging, together with a margin-based certificate linking logit distortion to interchange-intervention agreement. The framework also exposes a basic invariance requirement: functionally identical ReLU networks should induce the same reduction. Under exact positive-scaling reparameterizations, VBP's kept set collapses to chance-level overlap while the logit-distortion score is exactly invariant. Empirically, CMR variants are competitive with VBP under matched fine-tuning of DeiT-Tiny on ImageNet-100; the clearer separation appears in the invariance and interchange tests, where the logit-distortion score preserves kept sets and consistently improves distributional fidelity. CMR thus gives pruning, compilation, and causal-abstraction verification a common object to optimize and verify.

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arXiv2026

Sharp Bounds for Treatment Effect Generalization under Outcome Distribution Shift

Generalizing treatment effects from a randomized trial to a target population requires the assumption that potential outcome distributions are invariant across populations after conditioning on observed covariates. This assumption fails when unmeasured effect modifiers are distributed differently between trial participants and the target population. We develop a sensitivity analysis framework that bounds how much conclusions can change when this transportability assumption is violated. Our approach constrains the likelihood ratio between target and trial outcome densities by a scalar parameter $\Lambda \geq 1$, with $\Lambda = 1$ recovering standard transportability. For each $\Lambda$, we derive sharp bounds on the target average treatment effect -- the tightest interval guaranteed to contain the true effect under all data-generating processes compatible with the observed data and the sensitivity model. We show that the optimal likelihood ratios have a simple threshold structure, leading to a closed-form greedy algorithm that requires only sorting trial outcomes and redistributing probability mass. The resulting estimator runs in $O(n \log n)$ time and is consistent under standard regularity conditions. Simulations demonstrate that our bounds achieve nominal coverage when the true outcome shift falls within the specified $\Lambda$, provide substantially tighter intervals than worst-case bounds, and remain informative across a range of realistic violations of transportability.

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arXiv2026

PRISM: Differentially Private Synthetic Data with Structure-Aware Budget Allocation for Prediction

Differential privacy (DP) provides a mathematical guarantee limiting what an adversary can learn about any individual from released data. However, achieving this protection typically requires adding noise, and noise can accumulate when many statistics are measured. Existing DP synthetic data methods treat all features symmetrically, spreading noise uniformly even when the data will serve a specific prediction task. We develop a prediction-centric approach operating in three regimes depending on available structural knowledge. In the causal regime, when the causal parents of $Y$ are known and distribution shift is expected, we target the parents for robustness. In the graphical regime, when a Bayesian network structure is available and the distribution is stable, the Markov blanket of $Y$ provides a sufficient feature set for optimal prediction. In the predictive regime, when no structural knowledge exists, we select features via differentially private methods without claiming to recover causal or graphical structure. We formalize this as PRISM, a mechanism that (i) identifies a predictive feature subset according to the appropriate regime, (ii) constructs targeted summary statistics, (iii) allocates budget to minimize an upper bound on prediction error, and (iv) synthesizes data via graphical-model inference. We prove end-to-end privacy guarantees and risk bounds. Empirically, task-aware allocation improves prediction accuracy compared to generic synthesizers. Under distribution shift, targeting causal parents achieves AUC $\approx 0.73$ while correlation-based selection collapses to chance ($\approx 0.49$).

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arXiv2026

Risk-Equalized Differentially Private Synthetic Data: Protecting Outliers by Controlling Record-Level Influence

When synthetic data is released, some individuals are harder to protect than others. A patient with a rare disease combination or a transaction with unusual characteristics stands out from the crowd. Differential privacy provides worst-case guarantees, but empirical attacks -- particularly membership inference -- succeed far more often against such outliers, especially under moderate privacy budgets and with auxiliary information. This paper introduces risk-equalized DP synthesis, a framework that prioritizes protection for high-risk records by reducing their influence on the learned generator. The mechanism operates in two stages: first, a small privacy budget estimates each record's "outlierness"; second, a DP learning procedure weights each record inversely to its risk score. Under Gaussian mechanisms, a record's privacy loss is proportional to its influence on the output -- so deliberately shrinking outliers' contributions yields tighter per-instance privacy bounds for precisely those records that need them most. We prove end-to-end DP guarantees via composition and derive closed-form per-record bounds for the synthesis stage (the scoring stage adds a uniform per-record term). Experiments on simulated data with controlled outlier injection show that risk-weighting substantially reduces membership inference success against high-outlierness records; ablations confirm that targeting -- not random downweighting -- drives the improvement. On real-world benchmarks (Breast Cancer, Adult, German Credit), gains are dataset-dependent, highlighting the interplay between scorer quality and synthesis pipeline.

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arXiv2026

Fairness Under Group-Conditional Prior Probability Shift: Invariance, Drift, and Target-Aware Post-Processing

Machine learning systems are often trained and evaluated for fairness on historical data, yet deployed in environments where conditions have shifted. A particularly common form of shift occurs when the prevalence of positive outcomes changes differently across demographic groups--for example, when disease rates rise faster in one population than another, or when economic conditions affect loan default rates unequally. We study group-conditional prior probability shift (GPPS), where the label prevalence $P(Y=1\mid A=a)$ may change between training and deployment while the feature-generation process $P(X\mid Y,A)$ remains stable. Our analysis yields three main contributions. First, we prove a fundamental dichotomy: fairness criteria based on error rates (equalized odds) are structurally invariant under GPPS, while acceptance-rate criteria (demographic parity) can drift--and we prove this drift is unavoidable for non-trivial classifiers (shift-robust impossibility). Second, we show that target-domain risk and fairness metrics are identifiable without target labels: the invariance of ROC quantities under GPPS enables consistent estimation from source labels and unlabeled target data alone, with finite-sample guarantees. Third, we propose TAP-GPPS, a label-free post-processing algorithm that estimates prevalences from unlabeled data, corrects posteriors, and selects thresholds to satisfy demographic parity in the target domain. Experiments validate our theoretical predictions and demonstrate that TAP-GPPS achieves target fairness with minimal utility loss.

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arXiv2026

Fix Representation (Optimally) Before Fairness: Finite-Sample Shrinkage Population Correction and the True Price of Fairness Under Subpopulation Shift

Machine learning practitioners frequently observe tension between predictive accuracy and group fairness constraints -- yet sometimes fairness interventions appear to improve accuracy. We show that both phenomena can be artifacts of training data that misrepresents subgroup proportions. Under subpopulation shift (stable within-group distributions, shifted group proportions), we establish: (i) full importance-weighted correction is asymptotically unbiased but finite-sample suboptimal; (ii) the optimal finite-sample correction is a shrinkage reweighting that interpolates between target and training mixtures; (iii) apparent "fairness helps accuracy" can arise from comparing fairness methods to an improperly-weighted baseline. We provide an actionable evaluation protocol: fix representation (optimally) before fairness -- compare fairness interventions against a shrinkage-corrected baseline to isolate the true, irreducible price of fairness. Experiments on synthetic and real-world benchmarks (Adult, COMPAS) validate our theoretical predictions and demonstrate that this protocol eliminates spurious tradeoffs, revealing the genuine fairness-utility frontier.

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arXiv2026

Projected Boosting with Fairness Constraints: Quantifying the Cost of Fair Training Distributions

Boosting algorithms enjoy strong theoretical guarantees: when weak learners maintain positive edge, AdaBoost achieves geometric decrease of exponential loss. We study how to incorporate group fairness constraints into boosting while preserving analyzable training dynamics. Our approach, FairBoost, projects the ensemble-induced exponential-weights distribution onto a convex set of distributions satisfying fairness constraints (as a reweighting surrogate), then trains weak learners on this fair distribution. The key theoretical insight is that projecting the training distribution reduces the effective edge of weak learners by a quantity controlled by the KL-divergence of the projection. We prove an exponential-loss bound where the convergence rate depends on weak learner edge minus a "fairness cost" term $\delta_t = \sqrt{\mathrm{KL}(w^t \| q^t)/2}$. This directly quantifies the accuracy-fairness tradeoff in boosting dynamics. Experiments on standard benchmarks validate the theoretical predictions and demonstrate competitive fairness-accuracy tradeoffs with stable training curves.

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arXiv2025

Causal Discovery with Mixed Latent Confounding via Precision Decomposition

We study causal discovery from observational data in linear Gaussian systems affected by \emph{mixed latent confounding}, where some unobserved factors act broadly across many variables while others influence only small subsets. This setting is common in practice and poses a challenge for existing methods: differentiable and score-based DAG learners can misinterpret global latent effects as causal edges, while latent-variable graphical models recover only undirected structure. We propose \textsc{DCL-DECOR}, a modular, precision-led pipeline that separates these roles. The method first isolates pervasive latent effects by decomposing the observed precision matrix into a structured component and a low-rank component. The structured component corresponds to the conditional distribution after accounting for pervasive confounders and retains only local dependence induced by the causal graph and localized confounding. A correlated-noise DAG learner is then applied to this deconfounded representation to recover directed edges while modeling remaining structured error correlations, followed by a simple reconciliation step to enforce bow-freeness. We provide identifiability results that characterize the recoverable causal target under mixed confounding and show how the overall problem reduces to well-studied subproblems with modular guarantees. Synthetic experiments that vary the strength and dimensionality of pervasive confounding demonstrate consistent improvements in directed edge recovery over applying correlated-noise DAG learning directly to the confounded data.

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arXiv2025

DAG DECORation: Continuous Optimization for Structure Learning under Hidden Confounding

We study structure learning for linear Gaussian SEMs in the presence of latent confounding. Existing continuous methods excel when errors are independent, while deconfounding-first pipelines rely on pervasive factor structure or nonlinearity. We propose \textsc{DECOR}, a single likelihood-based and fully differentiable estimator that jointly learns a DAG and a correlated noise model. Our theory gives simple sufficient conditions for global parameter identifiability: if the mixed graph is bow free and the noise covariance has a uniform eigenvalue margin, then the map from $(\B,\OmegaMat)$ to the observational covariance is injective, so both the directed structure and the noise are uniquely determined. The estimator alternates a smooth-acyclic graph update with a convex noise update and can include a light bow complementarity penalty or a post hoc reconciliation step. On synthetic benchmarks that vary confounding density, graph density, latent rank, and dimension with $n<p$, \textsc{DECOR} matches or outperforms strong baselines and is especially robust when confounding is non-pervasive, while remaining competitive under pervasiveness.

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