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Amir Rashid

Publications and source records attributed to Amir Rashid.

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Resolving the Binding Constraint on Circular Economy: Principal Return Rate as Interest-Free Monetary Architecture

Green growth through circular economy is the dominant institutional response to ecological breakdown. Yet its insufficiency is structural: material flow arithmetic prevents loop closing at scale in a growing economy, thermodynamic constraints make completely closed loops physically infeasible, and circular material flows account for only 1.4% of global GDP while CE-principled service activities generate around two thirds of GDP without arresting ecological overshoot. The binding constraint lies not in production organisation but in the monetary architecture that structurally compels throughput expansion regardless of how production is organised. Six independent scholarly traditions, from ecological economics and post-Keynesian monetary theory to the historical critique of usury, have converged on interest as the central structural problem in any economy that does not require perpetual growth. Yet no existing proposal has specified a technically coherent mechanism to replace the monetary control function that interest currently performs, a gap unfilled across nine decades of sovereign money proposals. This article introduces the Principal Return Rate (PRR) as that mechanism. The PRR replaces interest not as a cost of credit but as a rate of return instrument: sovereign money, anchored to productive demand, is returned to central bank reserves at rates determined by the PRR. Inflation is controlled through central bank PRR adjustment, analogous to interest rate policy but acting on return velocity rather than borrowing cost, without the cost-push channel that interest itself generates. The PRR system closes the functional design gap open for nine decades. The article also introduces the hypothesis that positive time preference is partially endogenous to the interest-bearing system, generated by the inflation interest produces, making its conventional justification partially circular.

econ.GN

How circular is the linear economy? Analysing circularity, resource flows and their relation to GDP

The concept of Circular Economy (CE) has evolved significantly over the past decade, transitioning from a simple model of resource circulation to an increasingly complex and debated framework. While its primary objective remains the elimination of waste and pollution through regenerative processes, CE has encountered definitional ambiguities and criticisms. This study critically examines the prevailing circularity metrics, such as the circular material use rate or circularity and argues that such narrow definitions obscure the true potential of CE by excluding higher-value strategies like maintenance, repair, refurbishment, and remanufacturing. Through a mixed-methods analysis of global resource flows (e.g.,104 Gt input in 2020, with only 9% recycled), the study demonstrates how adjusting circularity calculations for non-recoverable materials reveals a real circularity rate of 27%, far exceeding the apparent 9%. Yet even this higher rate translates to a mere 1.4% of global GDP, underscoring the limited economic impact of recycling-centric approaches. The study identifies that 69% of economic value already derives from managing existing stocks, suggesting mainstream CE discourse has largely overlooked the most substantial circular practices already embedded in modern economies. The study thus proposes a radical change in the assessment framework that, (a) replaces annual input-based metrics with economic value creation as the primary indicator, (b) incorporates stock utilization efficiency as a core circularity measure and (c) establishes new policy targets focused on value retention and reuse rather than mere material recovery. These findings necessitate a paradigm shift in circular economy strategy -- from counting recycled materials to optimizing economic resilience through intelligent stock management and service-based value creation.

econ.GN