Amit Arnold Levy | Searcharxiv

arXiv2026

Reinforcement Learning for LLM-based Event Forecasting

We use Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), a recently devised sample and memory efficient reinforcement learning method, to finetune pretrained LLMs in the range of 1.5B to 14B parameters equipped with the ability to get current information through the use of a Wikipedia revisions tool, or news summaries, to forecast real events beyond the knowledge cutoff of the LLM, as well as problems made to simulate different aspects of the dynamics of that training. We use the results of these experiments to comment on the scaling capability of LLMs for forecasting, as well as classify how judgmental forecasting fits into the verifiable/unverifiable domain taxonomy, considering the impact of the inherent aleatoric uncertainty when forecasting future events (e.g. the roll of a die). As a result of the GRPO training, we manage to bring a 1.5B parameter transformer (Qwen 2.5 1.5B) to forecasting performance superior to Claude Sonnet 3.5 over the same dataset as measured by cross entropy from the market agreed probabilities. We also discuss various dead ends on the path to this result.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Language Models Encode Numbers Using Digit Representations in Base 10

Large language models (LLMs) frequently make errors when handling even simple numerical problems, such as comparing two small numbers. A natural hypothesis is that these errors stem from how LLMs represent numbers, and specifically, whether their representations of numbers capture their numeric values. We tackle this question from the observation that LLM errors on numerical tasks are often distributed across the digits of the answer rather than normally around its numeric value. Through a series of probing experiments and causal interventions, we show that LLMs internally represent numbers with individual circular representations per-digit in base 10. This digit-wise representation, as opposed to a value representation, sheds light on the error patterns of models on tasks involving numerical reasoning and could serve as a basis for future studies on analyzing numerical mechanisms in LLMs.

cs.LG↗