arXiv subjects

Amy Bonsor

Publications and source records attributed to Amy Bonsor.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

The true masses of radial-velocity exoplanets constrained by stability

Exoplanets discovered with the radial velocity method suffer from a mass-inclination degeneracy: only the minimum mass $M_{\rm min} = M \sin i$ is measured. An exoplanet with an Earth-sized minimum mass could actually therefore be a sub-Neptune, or even a gas giant. However, for compact multi-planet systems, the inclination angle cannot be too low, as this would imply masses so large that the system would be dynamically unstable on time-scales shorter than the age of the system. We present CINEMAS, a Bayesian framework to constrain the inclinations - and hence true masses - of radial-velocity exoplanets in flat multi-planet systems, by accounting for dynamical stability. Applying this framework to five compact exoplanetary systems, we cut upper limits on the true masses of their planets by as much as 45%. As two examples, the masses of the four Barnard's Star planets are constrained to all be below $0.6~M_{\oplus}$ to at least 95% confidence; and the three gas giants orbiting HD 184010 are found to be intermediate in mass between Saturn and Jupiter. With only ~1% of planetary systems being inclined enough to transit, methods of studying non-transiting systems are vital for constraining the properties of nearby exoplanets.

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arXiv2026

Tracing outer planetary systems through white dwarf pollution in wide binaries

White dwarf (WD) atmospheric metal pollution provides strong evidence for the presence of remnant planetary material and it can be used as an indirect tracer of outer planetary systems. We analyze whether the presence of a wide stellar companion affects the occurrence of outer planetary systems by comparing the incidence of calcium (Ca) pollution in hydrogen-atmosphere WDs in wide binaries and in apparently single stars. We construct two sample pairs: a large homogeneous SDSS low-resolution spectroscopic set and a smaller high-resolution sample. For each WD, we measure Ca abundances or upper limits and compute detectability-corrected cumulative pollution fractions that account for variations in effective temperature, signal-to-noise ratio, and spectral resolution. In the SDSS-based samples, we find pollution fractions <1%, defined as the fraction of WDs with detected Ca, for both single WDs and WDs in wide binaries. After correcting for detectability, the cumulative abundance distributions of the two populations are statistically consistent. The same conclusion is obtained for the higher-resolution samples, despite their different raw detection fractions. Our results indicate no statistically significant difference in the occurrence rate of remnant outer planetary systems between single stars and stars with wide (~200 au) companions, within the current uncertainties. These uncertainties are significant because the samples contain only a small number of polluted WDs. The corrected detectability cumulative fraction approach used here provides a framework for comparing samples with different detection sensitivities and can be extended to larger spectroscopic datasets. Such samples will be required to determine whether wide stellar companions affect the survival and delivery of planetary material and to search for more subtle trends, for example, as a function of companion separation.

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arXiv2026

Spectroscopic Monitoring of Metal Lines in Polluted White Dwarfs

The disruption and accretion of planetary material onto white dwarfs is expected to be inherently dynamic and stochastic, potentially driving variability in the accretion rate and therefore the shape and depth of the photospheric metal absorption lines. This paper presents an 18-year optical spectroscopic monitoring campaign of five warm (11,000-23,000K) polluted white dwarfs with sinking timescales of days-months, observed using Magellan/MIKE and SALT/HRS to directly test this prediction. At four of the five systems, no statistically significant variability is detected over baselines of 15-18 years corresponding to hundreds to thousands of diffusion timescales, with inferred accretion rates stable to within 15-30% (1$\sigma$) showing remarkably stable accretion on decadal timescales. This implies that either the processes maintaining the accretion of the disrupted planetary material are stable on the same timescales, or that currently uncharacterized photospheric processes act to smooth observable abundance variations on these timescales. The one exception, WD 0106$-$328, shows statistically significant variability in the 4481A Mg II doublet from the ground-based data. Yet no significant equivalent width or abundance changes are seen between two Hubble Space Telescope ultraviolet spectra taken in 2016 and 2025, despite probing a larger set of transitions. This may imply that the ground-based observations witnessed a stochastic excursion from a stable baseline accretion rate, rather than a sustained change in the bulk accretion rate.

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arXiv2026

Can giant impacts be directly detected in other star systems?

Giant impacts, collisions between planet-sized bodies, play an important role in planet and moon formation. As we enter a new era of large-scale surveys, such as \textit{Gaia} and LSST at the Vera C. Rubin observatory, there is potential to directly observe the remnants produced in such events and gain insights into the process of planet formation. Here, by modelling the emission and cooling of a series of giant impact remnants, we show that giant impacts are detectable as a sudden brightening followed by gradual dimming in the optical and near-infrared. Giant impacts between Earth-composition planets were simulated using the smoothed particle hydrodynamics code {\small SWIFT}, with total colliding masses ranging from 0.2 to 4 $M_{\oplus}$. By constraining the location of the photic surface of the post-impact bodies produced by the simulations, the initial luminosities of post-impact bodies were found to be between $5\times10^{-5}$ and $10^{-1}$ solar luminosities, with luminosity falling roughly exponentially on a timescale between 1 and 2000 days. Based on our results, along with estimates for planet and giant impact occurrence rates, we anticipate that between 0 and 14 terrestrial giant impacts will be observed in the full release of \textit{Gaia} epoch photometry in DR4, with at least a comparable number found by LSST. Identifying the remnants of multiple giant impacts will offer a powerful constraint on the frequency of giant impacts in the galaxy and hence the role of such collisions in planet formation.

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arXiv2026

The Barnard's Star Planetary System: Stability, Composition, and Evolution of Four Sub-Earth Exoplanets

Barnard's Star is the nearest single star to the Sun (1.8 pc), and hosts four recently-discovered planets. The star also has well-characterized stellar abundances of important rock-forming elements, including Fe, Mg, and Si. For refractory elements like these, the planets have likely inherited similar bulk elemental abundance ratios to the star, facilitating modelling of their interior structures. We present here an analysis of the Barnard's Star planetary system on several fronts. We perform a detailed stability analysis of the system, ascertaining that all four planets likely have masses between 0.19 and 0.84 $M_{\oplus}$, and are likely tidally locked, whereas a 4:3 mean-motion resonance chain for the inner three planets cannot be ruled out. Using atmospheric evolution models, we show that the prospect of extant primary atmospheres is highly unlikely on any of the planets. Barnard's Star's abnormally high Mg/Si ratio and low Th/Mg ratio imply planetary mantles which (a) are rich in (Mg,Fe)O ferropericlase; (b) have less than half the water capacity as Earth; (c) generate about half of the radiogenic heating as Earth; and (d) are cool and unlikely to have outgassed secondary atmospheres. Our analysis of this system presents an accessible set of first steps for the study of other nearby exoplanetary systems, as well as sub-Earth planets which will be increasingly discovered over the coming years.

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arXiv2026

White dwarf planetary systems in the ultraviolet

Almost every known planet host will evolve into a white dwarf, and the surviving planetary material will continue to orbit this stellar remnant. Asteroids perturbed onto star-grazing orbits will become disrupted, forming an accretion disk which causes "enrichment" of the otherwise pure hydrogen or helium atmosphere. Measurements of these photospheric abundances give detailed insights into the interior compositions of exo-planetesimals with an accuracy not possible for intact exoplanets around main sequence stars. This method has revealed the diversity of rocky material in our solar neighborhood, including primitive, chondritic planetesimals, fragments of planetary cores, and even analogues of Kuiper belt objects. The planetesimal abundances can be used as an input to interior structure models. The far-ultraviolet is a key wavelength range for this field because it contains strong transitions for almost every element of interest, many of which are undetectable using ground-based optical spectroscopy. Without the FUV, we will no longer have access to the C, N, P, S content of exoplanetary bodies and thus will no longer be able to probe how volatiles interact with refractories, which is crucial to understanding planet formation-and even the origin of life. The medium resolution and high sensitivity of COS on HST has been indispensable in determining the compositions of dozens of exo-planetesimals. However, the only two medium resolution FUV-capable spectrographs are currently onboard HST, with no plans for replacements until the 2040s. An extension to the HST mission is critical for the field of white dwarf planetary systems, because the loss of FUV capability would leave us blind to volatiles. Boosting the orbit of HST would allow us to measure volatile abundances, determine the rocky planetary occurrence rate, investigate differentiation, and probe for photospheric abundance variability.

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arXiv2026

From Hubble to HWO: Bridging the Frontier of White Dwarf Exoplanet Science

White dwarf stars, the endpoint of stellar evolution for 97% of stars in our Milky Way, offer a unique and powerful window into the bulk elemental composition of rocky exoplanetary bodies. Up to 50% of single white dwarfs are observed with photospheric metal lines from accreted exoplanetary bodies (called 'polluted' white dwarfs), and spectroscopic observations reveal the bulk composition of this material. High-resolution (R>15,000) UV spectra are essential for detecting many elements present in the material, such as the volatile elements imperative for habitability studies (C, N, O, P, S) and key rock-forming elements required to constrain interior structure (e.g. Fe, Si, Mg, Al, Ni). HST, through its COS and STIS spectrographs, remains the only facility capable of performing this science in the near future. Looking to the next decade, the scientific case for continued HST UV observations of polluted white dwarfs is compelling on three fronts (i) as a standalone to enable the bulk composition of exoplanetary material to be measured in a statistically significant sample, (ii) as essential groundwork for the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO), and (iii) in a powerful synergy with JWST, to enable characterization of the bulk mineralogy and bulk elemental composition of exoplanetary material. This white paper argues that continued UV spectroscopic capabilities with HST is a high-return investment for white dwarf and exoplanet science, and preserving and prioritizing HST's UV capabilities through at least 2035 is crucial to maximize the scientific return from HST, JWST, and HWO.

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arXiv2026

The efficient delivery of highly-siderophile elements to the core creates a mass accretion catastrophe for the Earth

The excess abundance of highly siderophile elements (HSEs), as inferred for the terrestrial planets and the Moon, is thought to record a `late veneer' of impacts after the giant impact phase of planet formation. Estimates for total mass accretion during this period typically assume all HSEs delivered remain entrained in the mantle. Here, we present an analytical discussion of the fate of liquid metal diapirs in both a magma pond and a solid mantle, and show that metals from impactors larger than approximately 1 km will sink to Earth's core, leaving no HSE signature in the mantle. However, by considering a collisional size distribution, we show that to deliver sufficient mass in small impactors to account for Earth's HSEs, there will be an implausibly large mass delivered by larger bodies, the metallic fraction of which lost to Earth's core. There is therefore a contradiction between observed concentrations of HSEs, the geodynamics of metal entrainment, and estimates of total mass accretion during the late veneer. To resolve this paradox, and avoid such a mass accretion catastrophe, our results suggest that large impactors must contribute to observed HSE signatures. For these HSEs to be entrained in the mantle, either some mechanism(s) must efficiently disrupt impactor core material into $\leq0.01$ mm fragments, or alternatively Earth accreted a significant mass fraction of oxidised (carbonaceous chondrite-like) material during the late veneer. Estimates of total mass accretion accordingly remain unconstrained, given uncertainty in both the efficiency of impactor core fragmentation, and the chemical composition of the late veneer.

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arXiv2025

Finding rare classes in large datasets: the case of polluted white dwarfs from Gaia XP spectra

The Gaia mission's third data release recorded low-resolution spectra for about 100 000 white dwarf candidates. A small subset of these spectra show evidence of characteristic broad Ca II absorption features, implying the accretion of rocky material by so-called polluted white dwarfs -- important probes of the composition of exoplanetary material. Several supervised and unsupervised data-intensive methods have recently been applied to identify polluted white dwarfs from the Gaia spectra. We present a comparison of these methods, along with the first application of $t$-distributed stochastic neighbour embedding ($t$SNE) to this dataset. We find that $t$SNE outperforms the similar technique Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection (UMAP), isolating over 50% more high-confidence polluted candidates, including 39 new candidates which are not selected by any other method investigated and which have not been observed at higher resolution. Supervised methods benefit greatly from data labels provided by earlier works, selecting many known polluted white dwarfs which are missed by unsupervised methods. Our work provides a useful case study in the selection of members of rare classes from a large, sporadically labelled dataset, with applications across astronomy.

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arXiv2025

Activity in White Dwarf Debris Disks I: Spitzer Legacy Reveals Variability Incompatible with the Canonical Model

This study presents all available, multi-epoch 3.6 and 4.5 $\mu$m photometry from Spitzer Space Telescope observations of white dwarf debris disks, including weekly cadence observations of 16 relatively bright systems, and 5 h staring-mode observations for five of these. Significant variability is detected in 85 per cent of disks and across all timescales probed, from minutes to weeks to years, where the largest flux changes correlate with the longest time baselines, and the infrared excesses persist utterly. While each source is idiosyncratic, the overall results indicate the most variable disks correlate with those that are the brightest (dustiest), and also among those with detected gas, demonstrating both dust and gas are produced via ongoing collisions. There is a correlation between flux and colour changes, where disks tend to appear redder when dimmer and bluer when brighter, consistent with an excess of small dust grains produced in collisions, followed by a gradual return to equilibrium. The overall results are a drastic departure from the predictions of the canonical - geometrically thin, optically thick - disk in both flux and colour, but are broadly consistent with collisional evolution based on a simple model. The data presented herein constitute a legacy resource that can inform time-series studies of polluted and dusty white dwarfs, and importantly serve as a basis for future disk modelling, beyond the pioneering canonical framework.

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arXiv2025

Silicate mineralogy and bulk composition of exoplanetary material in polluted white dwarfs

White dwarf planetary systems uniquely link the bulk elemental composition of exoplanetary material to the mineralogy as photospheric abundances can be compared to circumstellar dust mineralogy. This study re-examines Spitzer/IRS spectra of eight white dwarfs with both circumstellar dust and photospheric metals. All systems show 10$\mu$m silicate emission features consistent with a mixture of olivine and pyroxene silicates, with varying dominance. New Hubble Space Telescope ultraviolet spectroscopic observations of two of these systems, GD56 and WD1150-153, reveal that both are accreting dry, rocky material. WD1150-153 is accreting material consistent with Bulk Earth, while GD56 is accreting core-rich material with an inferred core mass fraction of 0.59$^{+0.08}_{-0.09}$ (0.37$^{+0.08}_{-0.08}$ by mole). A comparison between the bulk elemental composition of the accreted planetary material and the dust mineralogy of the eight systems reveals a tentative correlation between the dominant silicate mineralogy and the Mg/Si ratio, indicating that the circumstellar and photospheric material are compositionally similar. This suggests that rapid and well-mixed accretion is occurring with minimal compositional alteration. Furthermore, new GGCHEM equilibrium chemistry models confirm that Mg-rich planetary material preferentially forms olivine-rich dust, highlighting the importance of equilibrium in planetary chemistry and that a host star or rock's Mg/Si can be used to predict whether its silicate mineralogy is olivine- or pyroxene-dominated, influencing its capacity to structurally store water, recycle key nutrients, and possibly habitability.

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arXiv2025

Constraining the survival of HCN during cometary impacts

Cometary impacts have been invoked as an atmosphere-independent method of stockpiling hydrogen cyanide (HCN), a key prebiotic feedstock molecule, into environments favourable for the onset of prebiotic chemistry on the early Earth. This work revisits the prospects for cometary delivery of HCN through new impacts simulations of idealised cometary bodies using the shock physics code iSALE combined with simple chemical modelling. Using temperature and pressure profiles for material within spherical, non-porous comets with a high resolution of Lagrangian tracer particles, we assess the survival rate of HCN across a range of impact velocities, sizes and angles, assuming both steady state and equilibrium chemistry. We find that HCN survival is extremely limited at impact velocities above the escape velocity of the Earth, unless the impact occurs at extreme obliquity ($\theta \sim 15^\circ$). We present a parametrisation of the survival of HCN as a function of impact velocity, angle, and cometary diameter, which provides an upper limit to survival in more realistic scenarios to aid with future studies investigating the role of comets in the origins of life. Although successful HCN delivery may be possible in our idealised model, we neglect to consider the effect of atmospheric passage and our results suggest that delivery alone is not likely to be sufficient for the onset of prebiotic chemistry.

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arXiv2025

Can tidal evolution lead to close-in planetary bodies around white dwarfs II: volcanism and transits

Planetary material accreted by white dwarfs provides unique insights regarding exoplanetary composition. The evolutionary pathways of planetary bodies around white dwarfs are crucial to understanding the presence of close-in planetary material, observed in the form of pollutants in the atmospheres of white dwarfs and planetary material transiting white dwarfs. Periodic transits around white dwarfs potentially reveal the existence of close-in planetary bodies undergoing dust production. Tidal interactions can bring planetesimals that have been gravitationally perturbed onto long-period highly eccentric orbits around white dwarfs towards shorter orbital periods and smaller eccentricities. Tidal interactions may also induce melting and volcanism in these planetesimals, potentially being a mechanism for dust and debris production, the result of which may be seen in transit. Tidally induced volcanism may be triggered in a wide parameter space: for a 100km-sized rocky planetesimals perturbed to a pericentre distance $\lesssim$ 0.01AU ($\gtrsim$ twice its Roche limit), both on long-period (~ 100day) highly eccentric orbits and short-period (~ 10hr) near circular orbits. We comment on the potential link between the resultant volcanic ejecta and observed optical transits.

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arXiv2025

Can tidal evolution lead to close-in planetary bodies around white dwarfs I: Orbital period distribution

The evolution of planetary systems around white dwarfs is crucial to understanding the presence of planetary material in the atmospheres of white dwarfs. These systems uniquely probe exoplanetary compositions. Periodic signals in the photometry of a handful of white dwarfs suggest material blocking the star, potentially from disintegrating planetesimals. Tidal evolution followed by scattering can bring planetesimals onto close-in orbits that would have been within the envelope of the white dwarf progenitor. The orbital period distribution of planetesimals undergoing tidal evolution will peak at short-period (nearly) circularized orbits (~ 10 hour-1 day), with a rising tail towards long-period highly eccentric orbits (~ 100 day). This prediction is generally consistent with the observed white dwarf transiting systems. In order for the planetesimal on the 4.5 hour period around WD 1145+017 to be explained by the tidal evolution of a planetesimal, that planetesimal must have an ultimate tensile strength comparable to that of iron meteorites.

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arXiv2025

A Machine-Learning Compositional Study of Exoplanetary Material Accreted Onto Five Helium-Atmosphere White Dwarfs with $\texttt{cecilia}$

We present the first application of the Machine Learning (ML) pipeline $\texttt{cecilia}$ to determine the physical parameters and photospheric composition of five metal-polluted He-atmosphere white dwarfs without well-characterised elemental abundances. To achieve this, we perform a joint and iterative Bayesian fit to their $\textit{SDSS}$ (R=2,000) and $\textit{Keck/ESI}$ (R=4,500) optical spectra, covering the wavelength range from about 3,800\r{A} to 9,000\r{A}. Our analysis measures the abundances of at least two $-$and up to six$-$ chemical elements in their atmospheres with a predictive accuracy similar to that of conventional WD analysis techniques ($\approx$0.20 dex). The white dwarfs with the largest number of detected heavy elements are SDSS J0859$+$5732 and SDSS J2311$-$0041, which simultaneously exhibit O, Mg, Si, Ca, and Fe in their $\textit{Keck/ESI}$ spectra. For all systems, we find that the bulk composition of their pollutants is largely consistent with those of primitive CI chondrites to within 1-2$\sigma$. We also find evidence of statistically significant ($>2\sigma$) oxygen excesses for SDSS J0859$+$5732 and SDSS J2311$-$0041, which could point to the accretion of oxygen-rich exoplanetary material. In the future, as wide-field astronomical surveys deliver millions of public WD spectra to the scientific community, $\texttt{cecilia}$ aspires to unlock population-wide studies of polluted WDs, therefore helping to improve our statistical knowledge of extrasolar compositions.

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arXiv2025

The atmospheric entry of cometary impactors

Cometary impacts play an important role in the early evolution of Earth, and other terrestrial exoplanets. Here, we present a numerical model for the interaction of weak, low-density cometary impactors with planetary atmospheres, which includes semi-analytical parameterisations for the ablation, deformation, and fragmentation of comets. Deformation is described by a pancake model, as is appropriate for weakly cohesive, low-density bodies, while fragmentation is driven by the growth of Rayleigh-Taylor instabilities. The model retains sufficient computational simplicity to investigate cometary impacts across a large parameter space, and permits simple description of the key physical processes controlling the interaction of comets with the atmosphere. We apply our model to two case studies. First, we consider the cometary delivery of prebiotic feedstock molecules. This requires the survival of comets during atmospheric entry, which is determined by three parameters: the comet's initial radius, bulk density, and atmospheric surface density. There is a sharp transition between the survival and catastrophic fragmentation of comets at a radius of about 150m, which increases with increasing atmospheric surface density and decreasing cometary density. Second, we consider the deposition of mass and kinetic energy in planetary atmospheres during cometary impacts, which determines the strength and duration of any atmospheric response. We demonstrate that mass loss is dominated by fragmentation, not ablation. Small comets deposit their entire mass within a fraction of an atmospheric scale height, at an altitude determined by their initial radius. Large comets lose only a small fraction of their mass to ablation in the lower atmosphere.

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arXiv2024

Simultaneous emission from dust and gas in the planetary debris orbiting a white dwarf

There is increasing evidence for the presence and variability of circumstellar dust and gas around white dwarfs that are polluted with exoplanetary material, although the origin of this dust and gas remains debated. This paper presents the first near-simultaneous observations of both circumstellar dust (via broadband emission) and gas (via emission lines) around a polluted white dwarf. From the optical spectra the gaseous emission lines, notably the calcium infrared triplet and magnesium lines, show significant increases and decreases in their strength over timescales of weeks, while the oxygen and iron lines remain relatively stable. Near-infrared JHKs photometry reveals dust emission changes of up to 0.2 magnitudes in the Ks band over similar timescales, marking the shortest variability timescales observed to date. The two epochs with the strongest emission were correlated between the dust (Ks band brightening) and gas (strengthened calcium and magnesium lines), showing for the first time that the dust and gas must be produced near-simultaneously with a common origin, likely in collisions.

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arXiv2024

The plausibility of origins scenarios requiring two impactors

Hydrogen cyanide delivered by cometary impactors can be concentrated as ferrocyanide salts, which may support the initial stages of prebiotic chemistry on the early Earth. One way to achieve the conditions required for a variety of prebiotic scenarios, requiring for example the formation of cyanamide and cyanoacetylene, is through the arrival of a secondary impactor. In this work, we consider the bombardment of the early Earth, and quantitatively evaluate the likelihood of origins scenarios that invoke double impacts. Such scenarios are found to be possible only at very early times ($>\,$4Gya), and are extremely unlikely settings for the initial stages of prebiotic chemistry, unless (i) ferrocyanide salts are stable on 1000yr timescales in crater environments, (ii) there was a particularly high impact rate on the Hadean Earth, and (iii) environmental conditions on the Hadean Earth were conducive to successful cometary delivery (i.e., limited oceanic coverage, and low ($\lesssim 1$bar) atmospheric surface pressure). Whilst environmental conditions on the early Earth remain subject to debate, this work highlights the need to measure the typical lifetime of ferrocyanide salts in geochemically realistic environments, which will determine the plausibility of double impact scenarios.

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