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Anastasia Fialkov

Publications and source records attributed to Anastasia Fialkov.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

Rapid and Late Cosmic Reionization Driven by Massive Galaxies: a Joint Analysis of Constraints from 21-cm, Lyman Line & CMB Data Sets

Observations of the Epoch of Reionization (EoR) have the potential to answer long-standing questions of astrophysical interest regarding the nature of the first luminous sources and their effects on the intergalactic medium (IGM). We present astrophysical constraints from a Neural Density Estimation-Accelerated Bayesian joint analysis of constraints deriving from Cosmic Microwave Background power spectrum measurements from Planck and SPT, IGM neutral fraction measurements from Lyman-line-based data sets and 21-cm power spectrum upper limits from HERA, LOFAR and the MWA. In the context of the model employed, the data is found to be consistent with galaxies forming from predominantly atomic-cooled hydrogen gas in dark matter halos, with masses $M_\mathrm{min} \gtrsim 2.6 \times 10^{9}~M_{\odot} ((1+z)/10)^{\frac{1}{2}}$ at 95% credibility ($V_\mathrm{c} \gtrsim 50~\mathrm{km~s^{-1}}$) being the dominant galactic population driving reionization. These galaxies reionize the neutral hydrogen in the IGM over a narrow redshift interval ($Δz_\mathrm{re} < 1.8$ at 95% credibility), with the midpoint of reionization (when the sky-averaged IGM neutral fraction is 50%) constrained to $z_{50} = 7.16^{+0.15}_{-0.12}$. Given the parameter posteriors from our joint analysis, we find that the posterior predictive distribution of the global 21-cm signal is reduced in amplitude and shifted to lower redshifts relative to the model prior. We caution, however, that our inferences are model-dependent. Future work incorporating updated, mass-dependent star formation efficiencies in atomic cooling halos, informed by the latest UV luminosity function constraints from the James Webb Space Telescope, promises to refine these inferences further and enhance our understanding of cosmic reionization.

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Improved Halo Model Calibrations for Mixed Dark Matter Models of Ultralight Axions

We study the implications of relaxing the requirement for ultralight axions to account for all dark matter in the Universe by examining mixed dark matter (MDM) cosmologies with axion fractions $f \leq 0.3$ within the fuzzy dark matter (FDM) window $10^{-25}$ eV $\lesssim m \lesssim 10^{-23}$ eV. Our simulations, using a new MDM gravity solver implemented in AxiREPO, capture wave dynamics across various scales with high accuracy down to redshifts $z\approx 1$. We identify halos with Rockstar using the CDM component and find good agreement of inferred halo mass functions (HMFs) and concentration-mass relations with theoretical models across redshifts $z=1-10$. This justifies our halo finder approach a posteriori as well as the assumptions underlying the MDM halo model AxionHMcode. Using the inferred axion halo mass-cold halo mass relation $M_{\text{a}}(M_{\text{c}})$ and calibrating a generalised smoothing parameter $α$ to our MDM simulations, we present a new version of AxionHMcode. The code exhibits excellent agreement with simulations on scales $k< 20 \ h$ cMpc$^{-1}$ at redshifts $z=1-3.5$ for $f\leq 0.1$ around the fiducial axion mass $m = 10^{-24.5}$ eV $ = 3.16\times 10^{-25}$ eV, with maximum deviations remaining below 10%. For axion fractions $f\leq 0.3$, the model maintains accuracy with deviations under 20% at redshifts $z\approx 1$ and scales $k< 10 \ h$ cMpc$^{-1}$, though deviations can reach up to 30% for higher redshifts when $f=0.3$. Reducing the run-time for a single evaluation of AxionHMcode to below $1$ minute, these results highlight the potential of AxionHMcode to provide a robust framework for parameter sampling across MDM cosmologies in Bayesian constraint and forecast analyses.

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Cosmological super-resolution of the 21-cm signal

In this study, we train score-based diffusion models to super-resolve gigaparsec-scale cosmological simulations of the 21-cm signal. We examine the impact of network and training dataset size on model performance, demonstrating that a single simulation is sufficient for a model to learn the super-resolution task regardless of the initial conditions. Our best-performing model achieves pixelwise $\mathrm{RMSE}\sim0.57\ \mathrm{mK}$ and dimensionless power spectrum residuals ranging from $10^{-2}-10^{-1}\ \mathrm{mK^2}$ for $128^3$, $256^3$ and $512^3$ voxel simulation volumes at redshift $10$. The super-resolution network ultimately allows us to utilize all spatial scales covered by the SKA1-Low instrument, and could in future be employed to help constrain the astrophysics of the early Universe.

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Uncovering the Effects of Array Mutual Coupling in 21-cm Experiments with the SKA-Low Radio Telescope

We investigate the impact of Mutual Coupling (MC) between antennas on the time-delay power spectrum response of the core of the SKA-Low radio telescope. Using two in-house tools - Fast Array Simulation Tool (FAST) (a fast full-wave electromagnetic solver) and OSKAR (a GPU-accelerated radio telescope simulator) - we simulate station beams and compute visibilities for various array layouts (regular, sunflower, and random). Simulations are conducted in an Epoch of Reionisation subband between 120-150~MHz, with a fine frequency resolution of 100~kHz, enabling the investigation of longer delays. Our results show that MC effects significantly increase foreground leakage into longer delays, especially for regular station layouts. For 21-cm science, foreground spill-over into the 21-cm window extends beyond $k_{\parallel} \sim 2$~h$^{-1}$Mpc for all station layouts and across all $k_{\perp}$ modes, completely obscuring the detection window. We find that attempting to remove the foreground contribution from the visibilities using an approximated beam model, based on the average embedded element pattern or interpolating the embedded element patterns from a coarse channel rate of 781~kHz, results in residuals around 1% ($\sim 10^{11}~\mathrm{mK}^2$h$^{-3}\mathrm{Mpc}^3$) which is still around 7 orders of magnitude brighter than the expected level of the EoR signal ($\sim 10^{4}~\mathrm{mK}^2$h$^{-3}\mathrm{Mpc}^3$). We also find that station beam models with at least 4-5 significant digits in the far-field pattern and high spectral resolution are needed for effective foreground removal. Our research provides critical insights into the role of MC in SKA-Low experiments and highlights the computational challenges of fully integrating array patterns that account for MC effects into processing pipelines.

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Bayesian data analysis for sky-averaged 21-cm experiments with contamination from linearly polarised foreground

The precise measurement of the sky-averaged HI absorption signal between 50 and 200 MHz is the primary goal of global 21-cm cosmology. This measurement has the potential to unravel the underlying physics of cosmic structure formation and evolution during the Cosmic Dawn. It is, however, hindered by various non-smooth, frequency-dependent effects, whose structures resemble those of the signal. One such effect is the leakage of polarised foregrounds into the measured intensity signal: polarised foreground emission undergoes Faraday rotation as it passes through the magnetic fields of the interstellar medium, imprinting a chromatic structure in the relevant frequency range which complicates the extraction of the cosmological HI absorption feature. We investigate the effect of polarised Galactic foregrounds on extracting the global 21-cm signal from simulated data using REACH's data analysis pipeline; the Radio Experiment for the Analysis of Cosmic Hydrogen (REACH) is an experiment designed to detect the sky-averaged 21-cm HI signal from the early Universe using physically informed models. Using the REACH pipeline, we successfully recover an injected global 21-cm signal with an amplitude of approximately 0.16 K, centred between 80 and 120 MHz, achieving a low root-mean-square error (less than 30\% of the injected signal strength) in all the tested cases. This includes scenarios with simulated polarised Galactic diffuse emissions and polarised point source emissions, provided the overall polarisation fraction is below $\sim 3\%$. The linear mixing of contamination, caused by the superposition of multiple patches with varying strengths of Faraday rotation, produces patterns that are more distinct from the global signal. This distinction makes global signal recovery easier compared to contamination resulting from a single, slow oscillation pattern.

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Gravitational waves from mergers of Population III binary black holes: roles played by two evolution channels

The gravitational wave (GW) signal from binary black hole (BBH) mergers is a promising probe of Population III (Pop III) stars. To fully unleash the power of the GW probe, one important step is to understand the relative importance and features of different BBH evolution channels. We model two channels, isolated binary stellar evolution (IBSE) and nuclear star cluster-dynamical hardening (NSC-DH), in one theoretical framework based on the semi-analytical code A-SLOTH, under various assumptions on Pop III initial mass function (IMF), initial binary statistics and high-$z$ nuclear star clusters (NSCs). The NSC-DH channel contributes $\sim 8-95\%$ of Pop III BBH mergers across cosmic history, with higher contributions achieved by initially wider binary stars, more top-heavy IMFs, and more abundant high-$z$ NSCs. The dimensionless stochastic GW background (SGWB) produced by Pop III BBH mergers has peak values $Ω^{\rm peak}_{\rm GW}\sim 10^{-11}-8\times 10^{-11}$ around observer-frame frequencies $ν\sim 10-100\ \rm Hz$. The Pop III contribution can be a non-negligible ($\sim 2-32\%$) component in the total SGWB at $ν\lesssim 10\ \rm Hz$. The estimated detection rates of Pop III BBH mergers by the Einstein Telescope are $\sim 6-230\ \rm yr^{-1}$ and $\sim 30-1230\ \rm yr^{-1}$ for the NSC-DH and IBSE channels, respectively. Pop III BBH mergers in NSCs are more massive than those from IBSE, so they dominate the Pop III SGWB below $20$ Hz in most cases. Besides, the detection rate of Pop III BBH mergers involving at least one intermediate-mass BH above $100\ \rm M_\odot$ by the Einstein Telescope is $\sim 0.5-200\ \rm yr^{-1}$ in NSCs but remains below $0.1\ \rm yr^{-1}$ for IBSE.

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Understanding spectral artefacts in SKA-LOW 21-cm cosmology experiments: the impact of cable reflections

The Cosmic Dawn was marked by the formation of the first stars, and preceded the Epoch of Reionization (EoR), when the Universe underwent a fundamental transformation caused by the radiation from these first stars and galaxies. Interferometric 21-cm experiments aim to probe redshifted neutral hydrogen signals from these periods, constraining the conditions of the early Universe. The SKA-Low instrument of the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) is envisaged to be the largest and most sensitive radio telescope at metre and centimetre wavelengths. The latest Aperture Array Verification Systems feature 7-m coaxial transmission lines connecting the low noise amplifiers to optical transmitters at the front of the analogue-receiving chain. An impedance mismatch between these components results in a partially reflected electromagnetic signal, introducing chromatic aberrations into the instrument bandpass. This causes power from the foreground signals to appear at higher delays, potentially contaminating the 'EoR window', a region in which the 21-cm signal should be detectable. We present an end-to-end simulation pipeline for SKA-Low using a composite sky model combining radio foregrounds from the Galactic and Extragalactic All-Sky MWA (GLEAM) Survey, Haslam $408\,$MHz, and a 1.5-cGpc 21-cm brightness temperature cube generated with the 21cmSPACE simulator. We derive a model for the scattering parameters of a coaxial transmission line in terms of its specifications and bulk material properties. Assuming identical cables of length $\leq 15.0\,$m with impedance mismatch $\leq 10\, Ω$, the reflection is confined below the EoR window. However, we demonstrate that even a 0.1 per cent length tolerance introduces contamination with an absolute fractional difference of $\sim 10$ per cent across all accessible k-modes.

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Cosmic mysteries and the hydrogen 21-cm line: bridging the gap with lunar observations

The hydrogen 21-cm signal is predicted to be the richest probe of the young Universe including eras known as the cosmic Dark Ages, the Cosmic Dawn when the first star and black hole formed, and the Epoch of Reionization. This signal holds the key to deciphering processes that take place at the early stages of cosmic history. In this opinion piece, we discuss the potential scientific merit of lunar observations of the 21-cm signal and their advantages over more affordable terrestrial efforts. The moon is a prime location for radio cosmology which will enable precision observations of the low-frequency radio sky. The uniqueness of such observations is that they will provide an unparalleled opportunity to test cosmology and the nature of dark matter using the Dark Ages 21-cm signal. No less enticing is the opportunity to obtain a much clearer picture of Cosmic Dawn than what is achievable from the ground, which will allow us to probe properties of the first stars and black holes.

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Constraining the clustering and 21-cm signature of radio galaxies at cosmic dawn

The efficiency of radio emission is an important unknown parameter of early galaxies at cosmic dawn, as models with high efficiency have been shown to modify the cosmological 21-cm signal substantially, deepening the absorption trough and boosting the 21-cm power spectrum. Such models have been previously directly constrained by the overall extragalactic radio background as observed by ARCADE-2 and LWA-1. In this work, we constrain the clustering of high redshift radio sources by utilizing the observed upper limits on arcminute-scale anisotropy from the VLA at 4.9~GHz and ATCA at 8.7~GHz. Using a semi-numerical simulation of a plausible astrophysical model for illustration, we show that the clustering constraints on the radio efficiency are much stronger than those from the overall background intensity, by a factor that varies from 12 at redshift 7 to 30 at redshift 22. As a result, the predicted maximum depth of the global 21-cm signal is lowered by a factor of 5 (to 1700~mK), and the maximum 21-cm power spectrum peak at cosmic dawn is lowered by a factor of 24 (to $2\times 10^5$~mK$^2$). We conclude that the observed clustering is the strongest current direct constraint on such models, but strong early radio emission from galaxies remains viable for producing a strongly enhanced 21-cm signal from cosmic dawn.

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Emulation of the Cosmic Dawn 21-cm Power Spectrum and Classification of Excess Radio Models Using an Artificial Neural Network

The cosmic 21-cm line of hydrogen is expected to be measured in detail by the next generation of radio telescopes. The enormous dataset from future 21-cm surveys will revolutionize our understanding of early cosmic times. We present a machine learning approach based on an Artificial Neural Network that uses emulation in order to uncover the astrophysics in the epoch of reionization and cosmic dawn. Using a seven-parameter astrophysical model that covers a very wide range of possible 21-cm signals, over the redshift range 6 to 30 and wavenumber range $0.05$ to $1 \ \rm{Mpc}^{-1}$ we emulate the 21-cm power spectrum with a typical accuracy of $10 - 20\%$. As a realistic example, we train an emulator using the power spectrum with an optimistic noise model of the Square Kilometre Array (SKA). Fitting to mock SKA data results in a typical measurement accuracy of $2.8\%$ in the optical depth to the cosmic microwave background, $34\%$ in the star-formation efficiency of galactic halos, and a factor of 9.6 in the X-ray efficiency of galactic halos. Also, with our modeling we reconstruct the true 21-cm power spectrum from the mock SKA data with a typical accuracy of $15 - 30\%$. In addition to standard astrophysical models, we consider two exotic possibilities of strong excess radio backgrounds at high redshifts. We use a neural network to identify the type of radio background present in the 21-cm power spectrum, with an accuracy of $87\%$ for mock SKA data.

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Modeling Post-Reionization HI Distributions in Fuzzy Dark Matter Cosmologies Using Conditional Normalizing Flows

Upcoming 21 cm intensity mapping experiments like the Square Kilometer Array (SKA) hold significant potential to constrain the properties of dark matter. In this work, we model neutral hydrogen (HI) distributions using high-resolution hydrodynamical $N$-body simulations of both cold dark matter (CDM) and fuzzy dark matter (FDM) cosmologies in the post-reionization redshift range of $z=3.42-4.94$. We show that the HI abundance decreases in FDM-like cosmologies. Extreme FDM models with $m\sim 10^{-22}$ eV are at odds with a range of measurements. Due to the increased halo bias, the HI bias increases, paralleled by the damped Lyman-$α$ (DLA) bias which we infer from the cross-section of DLAs. The distribution of the latter in extreme FDM models has a high median at the low-mass end, which can be traced to the high column density of cosmic filaments. FDM models exhibit a very similar abundance of DLAs compared to CDM while sub-DLAs are already less abundant. We study the prospects of detecting the brightest HI peaks with SKA1-Low at $z=4.94$, indicating moderate signal-to-noise ratios (SNR) at angular resolution $θ_A = 2^{\prime}$ with a rapidly declining SNR for lower values of $θ_{A}$. After training the conditional normalizing flow network HIGlow on 2D HI maps, we interpolate its latent space of axion masses to predict the peak flux for a new, synthetic FDM cosmology, finding good agreement with expectations. This work thus underscores the potential of normalizing flows in capturing complex, non-linear structures within HI maps, offering a versatile tool for conditional sample generation and prediction tasks.

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Marginal Post Processing of Bayesian Inference Products with Normalizing Flows and Kernel Density Estimators

Bayesian analysis has become an indispensable tool across many different cosmological fields including the study of gravitational waves, the Cosmic Microwave Background and the 21-cm signal from the Cosmic Dawn among other phenomena. The method provides a way to fit complex models to data describing key cosmological and astrophysical signals and a whole host of contaminating signals and instrumental effects modelled with `nuisance parameters'. In this paper, we summarise a method that uses Masked Autoregressive Flows and Kernel Density Estimators to learn marginal posterior densities corresponding to core science parameters. We find that the marginal or 'nuisance-free' posteriors and the associated likelihoods have an abundance of applications including; the calculation of previously intractable marginal Kullback-Leibler divergences and marginal Bayesian Model Dimensionalities, likelihood emulation and prior emulation. We demonstrate each application using toy examples, examples from the field of 21-cm cosmology and samples from the Dark Energy Survey. We discuss how marginal summary statistics like the Kullback-Leibler divergences and Bayesian Model Dimensionalities can be used to examine the constraining power of different experiments and how we can perform efficient joint analysis by taking advantage of marginal prior and likelihood emulators. We package our multipurpose code up in the pip-installable code margarine for use in the wider scientific community.

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Joint analysis constraints on the physics of the first galaxies with low frequency radio astronomy data

The first billion years of cosmic history remains largely unobserved. We demonstrate, using a novel machine learning technique, how combining upper limits on the spatial fluctuations in the 21-cm signal with observations of the sky-averaged 21-cm signal from neutral hydrogen can improve our understanding of this epoch. By jointly analysing data from SARAS3 (redshift $z\approx15-25$) and limits from HERA ($z\approx8$ and $10$), we show that such a synergetic analysis provides tighter constraints on the astrophysics of galaxies 200 million years after the Big Bang than can be achieved with the individual data sets. Although our constraints are weak, this is the first time data from a sky-averaged 21-cm experiment and power spectrum experiment have been analysed together. In synergy, the two experiments leave only $64.9^{+0.3}_{-0.1}$% of the explored broad theoretical parameter space to be consistent with the joint data set, in comparison to $92.3^{+0.3}_{-0.1}$% for SARAS3 and $79.0^{+0.5}_{-0.2}$% for HERA alone. We use the joint analysis to constrain star formation efficiency, minimum halo mass for star formation, X-ray luminosity of early emitters and the radio luminosity of early galaxies. The joint analysis disfavours at 68% confidence a combination of galaxies with X-ray emission that is $\lesssim 33$ and radio emission that is $\gtrsim 32$ times as efficient as present day galaxies. We disfavour at $95$% confidence scenarios in which power spectra are $\geq126$ mK$^{2}$ at $z=25$ and the sky-averaged signals are $\leq-277$ mK.

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FlexKnot and Gaussian Process for 21 cm global signal analysis and foreground separation

The cosmological 21 cm signal is one of the most promising avenues to study the Epoch of Reionization. One class of experiments aiming to detect this signal is global signal experiments measuring the sky-averaged 21 cm brightness temperature as a function of frequency. A crucial step in the interpretation and analysis of such measurements is separating foreground contributions from the remainder of the signal, requiring accurate models for both components. Current models for the signal (non-foreground) component, which may contain cosmological and systematic contributions, are incomplete and unable to capture the full signal. We propose two new methods for extracting this component from the data: Firstly, we employ a foreground-orthogonal Gaussian Process to extract the part of the signal that cannot be explained by the foregrounds. Secondly, we use a FlexKnot parameterization to model the full signal component in a free-form manner, not assuming any particular shape or functional form. This method uses Bayesian model selection to find the simplest signal that can explain the data. We test our methods on both, synthetic data and publicly available EDGES low-band data. We find that the Gaussian Process can clearly capture the foreground-orthogonal signal component of both data sets. The FlexKnot method correctly recovers the full shape of the input signal used in the synthetic data and yields a multi-modal distribution of different signal shapes that can explain the EDGES observations.

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FlexKnot as a Generalised Model of the Sky-averaged 21-cm Signal at z ~ 6-30 in the Presence of Systematics

Global 21-cm experiments are built to study the evolution of the Universe between the cosmic dawn and the epoch of reionisation. FlexKnot is a function parameterised by freely moving knots stringed together by splines. Adopting the FlexKnot function as the signal model has the potential to separate the global 21-cm signal from the foregrounds and systematics while being capable of recovering the crucial features given by theoretical predictions. In this paper, we implement the FlexKnot method by integrating twice over a function of freely moving knots interpolated linearly. The function is also constrained at the lower frequencies corresponding to the dark ages by theoretical values. The FlexKnot model is tested in the framework of the realistic data analysis pipeline of the REACH global signal experiment using simulated antenna temperature data. We demonstrate that the FlexKnot model performs better than existing signal models, e.g. the Gaussian signal model, at reconstructing the shape of the true signals present in the simulated REACH data, especially for injected signals with complex structures. The capabilities of the FlexKnot signal model is also tested by introducing various systematics and simulated global signals of different types. These tests show that four to five knots are sufficient to recover the general shape of most realistic injected signals, with or without sinusoidal systematics. We show that true signals whose absorption trough of amplitude between 120 to 450 mK can be well recovered with systematics up to about 50 mK.

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Mini-quenching of $z=4-8$ galaxies by bursty star formation

The recent reported discovery of a low-mass $z=5.2$ and an intermediate-mass $z=7.3$ quenched galaxy with JWST/NIRSpec is the first evidence of halted star formation above $z\approx 5$. Here we show how bursty star formation at $z=4-8$ gives rise to temporarily quenched, or mini-quenched galaxies in the mass range $M_{\star} = 10^7-10^9 \ M_{\odot}$ using four models of galaxy formation: the periodic box simulation IllustrisTNG, the zoom-in simulations VELA and FirstLight and an empirical halo model. The main causes for mini-quenching are stellar feedback, lack of gas accretion onto galaxies and galaxy-galaxy interactions. The abundance of (mini-)quenched galaxies agrees across the models: the population first appears below $z\approx 8$, after which their proportion increases with cosmic time, from $\sim 0.5-1.0$% at $z=7$ to $\sim 2-4$% at $z=4$, corresponding to comoving number densities of $\sim 10^{-5}$ Mpc$^{-3}$ and $\sim 10^{-3}$ Mpc$^{-3}$, respectively. These numbers are consistent with star formation rate duty cycles inferred for VELA and FirstLight galaxies. Their star formation histories (SFHs) suggest that mini-quenching at $z=4-8$ is short-lived with a duration of $\sim 20-40$ Myr, which is close to the free-fall timescale of the inner halo. However, mock spectral energy distributions of mini-quenched galaxies in IllustrisTNG and VELA do not match JADES-GS-z7-01-QU photometry, unless their SFHs are artificially altered to be more bursty on timescales of $\sim 40$ Myr. Studying mini-quenched galaxies might aid in calibrating sub-grid models governing galaxy formation, as these may not generate sufficient burstiness at high redshift to explain the SFH inferred for JADES-GS-z7-01-QU.

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Population synthesis of Be X-ray binaries: metallicity dependence of total X-ray outputs

X-ray binaries (XRBs) are thought to regulate cosmic thermal and ionization histories during the Epoch of Reionization and Cosmic Dawn ($z\sim 5-30$).Theoretical predictions of the X-ray emission from XRBs are important for modelling such early cosmic evolution. Nevertheless, the contribution from Be-XRBs, powered by accretion of compact objects from decretion disks around rapidly rotating O/B stars, has not been investigated systematically. Be-XRBs are the largest class of high-mass XRBs (HMXBs) identified in local observations and are expected to play even more important roles in metal-poor environments at high redshifts. In light of this, we build a physically motivated model for Be-XRBs based on recent hydrodynamic simulations and observations of decretion disks. Our model is able to reproduce the observed population of Be-XRBs in the Small Magellanic Cloud with appropriate initial conditions and binary stellar evolution parameters. We derive the X-ray output from Be-XRBs as a function of metallicity in the (absolute) metallicity range $Z\in [10^{-4},0.03]$ with a large suite of binary population synthesis (BPS) simulations. The simulated Be-XRBs can explain a non-negligible fraction ($\gtrsim 30\%$) of the total X-ray output from HMXBs observed in nearby galaxies for $Z\sim 0.0003-0.02$. The X-ray luminosity per unit star formation rate from Be-XRBs in our fiducial model increases by a factor of $\sim 8$ from $Z=0.02$ to $Z=0.0003$, which is similar to the trend seen in observations of all types of HMXBs. We conclude that Be-XRBs are potentially important X-ray sources that deserve greater attention in BPS of XRBs.

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Constraining exotic dark matter models with the dark ages 21-cm signal

The dark ages 21-cm signal is a powerful tool for precision cosmology and probing new physics. We study two non-standard models: an excess radio background (ERB) model (possibly generated by dark matter decay) and the millicharged dark matter (mDM) model. These models were inspired by the possible EDGES detection of a strong global 21-cm absorption during cosmic dawn, but more generally they provide a way to anticipate the potential discovery space. During the dark ages the 21-cm global signal in the ERB model reaches a saturated form for an amplitude $A_{\rm r}=0.4$, where $A_{\rm r}$ is the radio background intensity at cosmic dawn relative to the cosmic microwave background. This amplitude is one-fifth of the minimum required to explain the EDGES signal, and corresponds to just 0.1% of the observed extragalactic background; it would give a signal that can be detected at 5.9$σ$ significance (compared to $4.1\,σ$ for the standard signal) and can be distinguished from the standard (no ERB) signal at $8.5\,σ$, all with a 1,000 hr global signal measurement. The 21-cm power spectrum has potentially more information, but far greater resources would be required for comparable constraints. For the mDM model, over a range of viable parameters, the global signal detection significance would be $4.7-7.2\,σ$, and it could be distinguished from the standard at $2.2-9.3\,σ$. With an array of global signal antennas achieving an effective 100,000 hr integration, the significance would be $10\,\times$ better. Our analysis helps motivate the development of lunar and space-based dark ages experiments.

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