arXiv subjects

Andjelka B. Kovacevic

Publications and source records attributed to Andjelka B. Kovacevic.

26 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

2D Hybrid method:Case of VLF signal amplitude variations in the time vicinity of an earthquake

Extraction of information in the form of oscillations from noisy data of natural phenomena such as sounds, earthquakes, ionospheric and brain activity, and various emissions from cosmic objects is extremely difficult. As a method for finding periodicity in such challenging data sets, the 2D Hybrid approach, which employs wavelets, is presented. Our technique produces a wavelet transform correlation intensity contour map for two (or one) time series on a period plane defined by two independent period axes. Notably, by spreading peaks across the second dimension, our method improves apparent resolution of detected oscillations in the period plane and identifies the direction of signal changes using correlation coefficients. We demonstrate the performance of the 2D Hybrid technique on a very low frequency (VLF) signal emitted in Italy and recorded in Serbia in time vicinity of the occurrence of an earthquake on November 3, 2010, near Kraljevo, Serbia. We identified a distinct signal in the range 120-130 s that appears only in association with the considered earthquake. Other wavelets, such as Superlets, which may detect fast transient oscillations, will be employed in the future analysis.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2022

The LSST era of supermassive black holes accretion-disk reverberation mapping

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will detect an unprecedentedly large sample of actively accreting supermassive black holes with typical accretion disk (AD) sizes of a few light days. This brings us to face challenges in the reverberation mapping (RM) measurement of AD sizes in active galactic nuclei (AGNs) using interband continuum delays. We examine the effect of LSST cadence strategies on AD RM using our metric AGNTimeLagMetric. It accounts for redshift, cadence, the magnitude limit, and magnitude corrections for dust extinction. Running our metric on different LSST cadence strategies, we produce an atlas of the performance estimations for LSST photometric RM measurements. We provide an upper limit on the estimated number of quasars for which the AD time lag can be computed within 0 1000 sources in each Deep Drilling field (DDF, 10 sq. deg) in any filter, with the redshift distribution of these sources peaking at z~1. We find the LSST observation strategies with a good cadence (~ 5 days) and a long cumulative season (~9 yr), as proposed for LSST DDF, are favored for the AD size measurement. We create synthetic LSST light curves for the most suitable DDF cadences and determine RM time lags to demonstrate the impact of the best cadences based on the proposed metric.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2022

On possible life-dispersal patterns beyond the Earth

We model hypothetical bio-dispersal within a single Galactic region using the stochastic infection dynamics process, which is inspired by these local properties of life dispersal on Earth. We split the population of stellar systems into different categories regarding habitability and evolved them through time using probabilistic cellular automata rules analogous to the model. As a dynamic effect, we include the existence of natural dispersal vectors (e.g., dust, asteroids) in a way that avoids assumptions about their agency. By assuming that dispersal vectors have a finite velocity and range, the model includes the parameter of 'optical depth of life spreading'. The effect of the oscillatory infection rate on the long-term behavior of the dispersal flux, which adds a diffusive component to its progression, is also taken into account. We found that phase space is separated into subregions of long-lasting transmission, rapidly terminated transmission, and a transition region between the two. We observed that depending on the amplitude of the oscillatory life spreading rate, life-transmission in the Galactic patch might take on different geometrical shapes. Even if some host systems are uninhabited, life transmission has a certain threshold, allowing a patch to be saturated with viable material over a long period. Although stochastic fluctuations in the local density of habitable systems allow for clusters that can continuously infect one another, the spatial pattern disappears when life transmission is below the observed threshold, so that transmission process is not permanent in time. Both findings suggest that a habitable planet in a densely populated region may remain uninfected.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2021

Photoreverberation mapping of quasars in the context of LSST observing strategies

The upcoming photometric surveys, such as the Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will monitor unprecedented number of active galactic nuclei (AGN) in a decade long campaign. Motivated by the science goals of LSST, which includes the harnessing of broadband light curves of AGN for photometric reverberation mapping (PhotoRM), we implement the existing formalism to estimate the lagged response of the emission line flux to the continuum variability using only mutli-band photometric light curves. We test the PhotoRM method on a set of 19 artificial light curves simulated using a stochastic model based on the Damped Random Walk process. These light curves are sampled using different observing strategies, including the two proposed by the LSST, in order to compare the accuracy of time-lag retrieval based on different observing cadences. Additionally, we apply the same procedure for time-lag retrieval to the observed photometric light curves of NGC 4395, and compare our results to the existing literature.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2021

Conditional Neural Process for non-parametric modeling of AGN light curve

The consequences of complex disturbed environments in the vicinity of a supermassive black hole are not well represented by standard statistical models of optical variability in active galactic nuclei (AGN). Thus, developing new methodologies for investigating and modeling AGN light curves is crucial. Conditional Neural Processes (CNPs) are nonlinear function models that forecast stochastic time-series based on a finite amount of known data without the use of any additional parameters or prior knowledge (kernels). We provide a CNP algorithm that is specifically designed for simulating AGN light curves. It was trained using data from the All-Sky Automated Survey for Supernovae, which included 153 AGN. We present CNP modeling performance for a subsample of five AGNs with distinctive difficult-to-model properties. The performance of CNP in predicting temporal flux fluctuation was assessed using a minimizing loss function, and the results demonstrated the algorithm's usefulness. Our preliminary parallelization experiments show that CNP can efficiently handle large amounts of data. These results imply that CNP can be more effective than standard tools in modeling large volumes of AGN data (as anticipated from time-domain surveys such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time).

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2021

On possible proxies of AGN light curves cadence selection in future time domain surveys

Motivated by upcoming photometric and spectroscopic surveys (Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), Manuakea Spectroscopic Explorer), we design the statistical proxies to measure the cadence effects on active galactic nuclei (AGN) variability-observables (time-lags, periodicity, and structure-function (SF)). We constructed a multiple-regression model to statistically identify the cadence-formal error pattern knowing AGN time-lags and periodicity from different surveys. We defined the simple metric for the SF's properties, accounting for the 'observed' SF's deviation relative to those obtained from the homogenously-sampled light curves. We tested the regression models on different observing strategies: the optical dataset of long light-curves of eight AGN with peculiarities and the artificial datasets based on several idealized and LSST-like cadences. The SFs metric is assessed on synthetic datasets. The regression models (for both data types) predict similar cadences for time-lags and oscillation detection, whereas for light curves with low variability ($\sim 10\%$), cadences for oscillation detection differ. For higher variability ($\sim20\%$), predicted cadences are larger than for $F_{var}\sim 10\%$. The predicted cadences are decreasing with redshift. SFs with dense and homogenous cadences are more likely to behave similarly. SFs with oscillatory signals are sensitive to the cadences, possibly impacting LSST-like operation strategy. The proposed proxies can help to select spectroscopic and photometric-surveys cadence strategies, and they will be tested further in larger samples of objects.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2020

Confirmed short periodic variability of subparsec supermassive binary black hole candidate Mrk 231

Here we confirm the short periodic variability of a subparsec supermassive binary black hole (SMBBH) candidate Mrk 231 in the extended optical photometric data set collected by the Catalina Real-Time Transient Survey (CRTS) and All-Sky Automated Survey for Supernovae (ASAS-SN). Using the Lomb-Scargle periodogram and 2DHybrid method, we detected the significant periodicity of ~ 1.1 yr beyond a damped random walk model in the CRTS+ASAS-SN optical data set. Mrk 231 has been previously proposed as a SMBBH candidate with a highly unequal mass ratio (q~ 0.03), very tight mutual separation of ~590 AU, and an orbital period of ~1.2 yr. Hence, our result further supports, even though not prove, the intriguing hypothesis that SMBBHs with low mass ratios may be more common than close-equal mass SMBBHs. This result, however, was obtained from the contribution of CRTS data with limited sampling cadence and photometric accuracy, and further monitoring of Mrk 231 is crucial to confirm the periodicity.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2018

The optical variability of Supermassive Black Hole Binary Candidate PG1302-102: Periodicity and perturbation in the light curve

The photometric light curve of PG1302-102 shows periodic variability which makes this object one of the most plausible supermassive black hole binary candidate. Interestingly, the most recent study of its updated optical light curve reports a decrease in significance of periodicity which may suggest that the binary model is less favorable. Here, we model the PG 1302-102 light curve, spanning almost 20 years, with a supermassive black hole binary system in which a perturbation in the accretion disk of more massive component is present. Our model reproduces well the observed light curve with a slight perturbation of a sinusoidal feature and predicts that a slightly larger period than previously reported, of about 1899 days, could arise due to a cold spot in the disk of {\bf more massive} component of a close, unequal-mass ($\frac{\mathrm{m}_{1}}{\mathrm{m}_{2}}=0.1$) black hole binary system. The light curve resembles the pattern of sinusoid-like shape within a few years, which could be confirmed by future observations. In addition, using our hybrid method for periodicity detection, we show that the periods in the observed ($1972\pm 254$ days) and modeled ($1873 \pm \ 250$ days) light curves are within one-sigma, which is also consistent with our physical model prediction and with previous findings. Thus, both the periodic nature and its slight fluctuation of the light curve of PG1302-102 is evident from our physical model and confirmed by the hybrid method for periodicity detection.

astro-ph.HE↗